Sen Sui. / Thesis submitted in: August 2003. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 88-92). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.ii / Acknowledgement --- p.iv / Dedication --- p.v / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Motivation and Objective --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Contributions --- p.4 / Chapter 1.3 --- Thesis Organization --- p.5 / Chapter 2 --- Background of Risk Management --- p.7 / Chapter 2.1 --- Measuring Return --- p.8 / Chapter 2.2 --- Objectives of Risk Measurement --- p.11 / Chapter 2.3 --- Simple Statistics for Measurement of Risk --- p.15 / Chapter 2.4 --- Methods for Value-at-Risk Measurement --- p.16 / Chapter 2.5 --- Conditional VaR --- p.18 / Chapter 2.6 --- Portfolio VaR Methods --- p.18 / Chapter 2.7 --- Coherent Risk Measure --- p.20 / Chapter 2.8 --- Summary --- p.22 / Chapter 3 --- Selection of Independent Factors for VaR Computation --- p.23 / Chapter 3.1 --- Mixture Convolution Approach Restated --- p.24 / Chapter 3.2 --- Procedure for Selection and Evaluation --- p.26 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- Data Preparation --- p.26 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- ICA Using JADE --- p.27 / Chapter 3.2.3 --- Factor Statistics --- p.28 / Chapter 3.2.4 --- Factor Selection --- p.29 / Chapter 3.2.5 --- Reconstruction and VaR Computation --- p.30 / Chapter 3.3 --- Result and Comparison --- p.30 / Chapter 3.4 --- Problem of Using Kurtosis and Skewness --- p.40 / Chapter 3.5 --- Summary --- p.43 / Chapter 4 --- Mixture of Gaussians and Value-at-Risk Computation --- p.45 / Chapter 4.1 --- Complexity of VaR Computation --- p.45 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- Factor Selection Criteria and Convolution Complexity --- p.46 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- Sensitivity of VaR Estimation to Gaussian Components --- p.47 / Chapter 4.2 --- Gaussian Mixture Model --- p.52 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Concept and Justification --- p.52 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Formulation and Method --- p.53 / Chapter 4.2.3 --- Result and Evaluation of Fitness --- p.55 / Chapter 4.2.4 --- Evaluation of Fitness using Z-Transform --- p.56 / Chapter 4.2.5 --- Evaluation of Fitness using VaR --- p.58 / Chapter 4.3 --- VaR Estimation using Convoluted Mixtures --- p.60 / Chapter 4.3.1 --- Portfolio Returns by Convolution --- p.61 / Chapter 4.3.2 --- VaR Estimation of Portfolio Returns --- p.64 / Chapter 4.3.3 --- Result and Analysis --- p.64 / Chapter 4.4 --- Summary --- p.68 / Chapter 5 --- VaR for Portfolio Optimization and Management --- p.69 / Chapter 5.1 --- Review of Concepts and Methods --- p.69 / Chapter 5.2 --- Portfolio Optimization Using VaR --- p.72 / Chapter 5.3 --- Contribution of the VaR by ICA/GMM --- p.76 / Chapter 5.4 --- Summary --- p.79 / Chapter 6 --- Conclusion --- p.80 / Chapter 6.1 --- Future Work --- p.82 / Chapter A --- Independent Component Analysis --- p.83 / Chapter B --- Gaussian Mixture Model --- p.85 / Bibliography --- p.88

Chen Li. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 76-78). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgements --- p.iii / Table of Contents --- p.v / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Literature review --- p.4 / Chapter 3 --- The semi-mean target tracking model --- p.9 / Chapter 3.1 --- Introduction --- p.9 / Chapter 3.2 --- The robust optimization problem --- p.11 / Chapter 3.3 --- Portfolio selection methods --- p.14 / Chapter 3.3.1 --- Jensen's inequality approach --- p.15 / Chapter 3.3.2 --- The robust optimization approach --- p.17 / Chapter 3.3.3 --- Empirical method --- p.22 / Chapter 3.4 --- How to evaluate a portfolio? --- p.24 / Chapter 3.4.1 --- Tight bounds --- p.24 / Chapter 3.4.2 --- The semidefinite programming bounds --- p.25 / Chapter 3.4.3 --- Conclusions --- p.28 / Chapter 3.5 --- Numerical results --- p.29 / Chapter 3.5.1 --- The analysis of the data --- p.29 / Chapter 3.5.2 --- Jensen's inequality approach --- p.31 / Chapter 3.5.3 --- The robust optimization approach --- p.34 / Chapter 3.5.4 --- The empirical linear programming method --- p.34 / Chapter 3.6 --- Comparisons and conclusions --- p.39 / Chapter 4 --- The semi-variance target tracking model --- p.45 / Chapter 4.1 --- Introduction --- p.45 / Chapter 4.2 --- The portfolio selection methods --- p.46 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- The robust optimization method --- p.47 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- The empirical method --- p.50 / Chapter 4.3 --- Evaluating a selected portfolio --- p.52 / Chapter 4.3.1 --- Computing SDP bounds --- p.52 / Chapter 4.3.2 --- Conclusions --- p.55 / Chapter 4.4 --- Numerical results --- p.55 / Chapter 4.4.1 --- The robust optimization method --- p.56 / Chapter 4.4.2 --- The empirical second order cone programming method --- p.61 / Chapter 4.4.3 --- Comparisons and conclusions --- p.61 / Chapter 4.5 --- Summary and future work --- p.69 / Appendix A --- p.70 / Bibliography --- p.76

Um projeto de investimento foi desenvolvido com o objetivo de avaliar a viabilidade econômica da utilização de resíduo agroindustrial na produção de painéis de partículas (MDP). A unidade de produção foi inicialmente concebida para a utilização em pesquisas na Faculdade de Engenharia de Alimentos da Universidade de São Paulo - Departamento de Engenharia de Biossistemas, sendo que esta tese buscou avaliar a viabilidade econômico-financeira do empreendimento. Foram avaliados dezesseis cenários nos quais utilizou-se, na confecção dos painéis, o bagaço de cana-de-açúcar e resinas à base de ureia-formaldeído e poliuretana à base de óleo de mamona, em diferentes proporções. Os primeiros doze cenários foram definidos a partir da variação de preços dos produtos vendidos e das variações dos desembolsos decorrentes da utilização das diferentes resinas e porcentagem dessas na confecção dos painéis. Para esta avaliação inicial utilizou-se como fonte de financiamento do empreendimento o capital próprio. Nos quatro últimos cenários foram avaliados os efeitos da fonte de financiamento do empreendimento, via operação de crédito junto ao Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES). Para estes cenários foram avaliados aqueles que apresentaram viabilidade econômica na etapa inicial da avaliação. O método de análise econômica utilizado foi o de Fluxo de Caixa (Cash Flow) e as técnicas aplicadas foram: Payback Simples, Payback Descontado, Valor Presente (VPL) e Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR). O empreendimento mostrou-se economicamente viável estritamente para os cenários nos quais foram utilizados os preços médios e máximos projetados e com a utilização de resina ureia-formaldeído. A utilização de financiamento via operação de crédito junto ao BNDES não melhorou os índices apurados, porém mostrou-se alternativa para viabilizar a execução do empreendimento. / A study of an investment project was developed with the objective of evaluating the economic viability of agro industrial residue application (sugar cane bagasse) in the production of particle board (MDP). The constructed building production unit was initially designed for researches at the Department of Food Engineering of the University of São Paulo - Department of Biossystems Engineering, and this thesis attempted to evaluate the economic-financial viability of the project. Sixteen scenarios were used, where sugar cane bagasse and resin based on urea-formaldehyde and polyurethane based on castor oil were applied in the preparation of the panels in different proportions. The first twelve scenarios were defined based on the variation of the sold products\' prices and the variations of the payoff resulting from the use of the different resins and their percentage in the preparation of the panels. For the initial evaluation the investment was financing from own researcher\'s capital. In the last four scenarios, the effects of the financing source of the project were evaluated through a credit operation with National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES). For these scenarios, the presented economic feasibility was evaluated on the initial stage of evaluation. The method of economic analysis used was Cash Flow and the applied techniques were: Simple Payback, Discounted Payback, Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). The project showed economically feasible strictly for the scenarios in which the average and maximum prices projected used urea-formaldehyde resin. The use of financing through a credit operation along with BNDES bank did not improve the established rates, but it was an alternative to make the accomplishment of the project feasible.

本文包含了两篇关于金融分析师和公司治理的实证研究。第一篇论文（题目为"分析师影响公司避稅吗？来自自然实验的证据"）研究金融分析师对企业避稅的影响。基本回归结果表明追踪公司的分析师越多，公司避稅越少。通过充分利用券商倒闭和券商兼并这两个对金融分析师数量造成的外生冲击，我们利用双重差分的分析方法发现，相比同类公司，经受分析师数量外生下降的公司将从事更多的避稅活动。因此，证据充分表明分析师的数量对企业避稅具有强烈的负面因果影响。我们进一步发现，这一负的因果影响主要集中在本来拥有较少分析师和融资受到约束的公司。此外，在财务信息不透明和企业管制较差的公司，效果也更为明显。综上，该论文提供了新的数据表明，财务信息透明度对于企业避稅具有重要作用。当遭遇外生的分析师下降从而引起信息透明度降低的情况下，公司会更为激进的避稅。 / 第二篇论文（题目为"金融分析师影响公司治理吗？来自自然实验的证据"）利用跟第一篇论文相同的两个自然实验（券商倒闭和券商兼并），进一步探讨了分析师对公司治理的作用。我们发现，当追踪一个公司的金融分析师数量受到这两个自然实验的影响而减少之后，该公司内部现金持有量给股东带来的边际价值减少，其CEO获得更高的超额报酬，其管理层更有可能做出破坏公司价值的收购决策，其管理层更有可能从事盈余管理活动。重要的是，我们发现这些影响主要集中在本来拥有较少分析师和较少市场竞争压力的公司。我们进一步发现，本来拥有较少分析师的这些公司在受到券商倒闭和券商兼并的冲击下，其CEO的报酬和超额报酬对公司业绩较原来更不敏感。这些发现与我们的分析师监督假说是一致的，即金融分析师发挥着审查管理者行为的重要公司治理作用。当公司损失分析师之后，市场在对公司股票定价时会考虑公司因此而产生的代理成本的增加。 / This thesis consists of two empirical studies on financial analysts and corporate governance. The first essay (titled "Does Analyst Coverage Affect Tax Avoidance? Evidence from Natural Experiments") investigates the effects of analyst coverage on corporate tax avoidance. The baseline results indicate that analyst coverage reduces tax avoidance. Using a Difference-in-Differences approach based on two sources of exogenous shocks to analyst coverage - broker closures and mergers, we find that firms engage in more tax avoidance activities after an exogenous drop in the number of analysts following the firm, compared to similar firms that do not experience an exogenous drop in analyst coverage. The evidence therefore suggests a strong negative causal effect of analyst coverage on tax avoidance. We further find that the effects are mainly driven by the firms with smaller initial analyst coverage and more financial constraints. Moreover, the effects are more pronounced in the subset of firms with more information opacity and poorer corporate governance. Overall, the findings suggest that analyst coverage materially and causally affects tax avoidance. Our paper offers novel evidence that information transparency plays an important role in corporate tax avoidance decisions, and with increased information opacity induced by exogenous drops in analyst coverage, firms are likely to avoid tax more aggressively. / The second essay (titled "Do Analysts Matter for Governance? Evidence from Natural Experiments") further explores the causal effects of analyst coverage on mitigating managerial expropriation of outside shareholders, building on the same two natural experiments - broker closures and mergers. We find that as a firm experiences an exogenous decrease in analyst coverage, shareholders value internal cash holdings less, its CEO receives higher excess compensation, its management is more likely to make value-destroying acquisitions, and its managers are more likely to engage in earnings management activities. Importantly, we find that most of these effects are mainly driven by the firms with smaller initial analyst coverage and less product market competition. We further find that after exogenous brokerage terminations, a CEO’s total and excess compensation become less sensitive to firm performance in firms with low initial analyst coverage. These findings are consistent with the monitoring hypothesis, specifically that financial analysts play an important governance role in scrutinizing management behavior, and the market is pricing an increase in expected agency problems after the loss in analyst coverage. / 1. Does analyst coverage affect tax avoidance? : evidence from natural experiments -- 2. Do analysts matter for governance? : evidence from natural experiments. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Chen, Tao. / Thesis (Ph.D.) Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2014. / Includes bibliographical references. / Abstracts also in Chinese.

Thesis. 1979. M.C.P.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning. / MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND ROTCH. / Bibliography: leaves 188-190. / M.C.P.

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Este trabalho é composto por dois artigos que visam analisar as margens relativas e absolutas de comercialização da indústria de processamento de laranja e a viabilidade econômico-financeira para a implantação deste empreendimento no estado de São Paulo. Embora seja uma cadeia produtiva importante no agronegócio do país, vem sendo constatada uma deterioração das relações entre os citricultores e a indústria processadora de suco de laranja. Após uma breve introdução e fundamentação do problema no primeiro capítulo, analisa-se no segundo capítulo as margens de comercialização da indústria de citros. Contatou-se que a indústria tem operado com margens relativas positivas e elevadas, principalmente, quando é incluída a receita obtida com as exportações dos subprodutos. No segundo artigo (terceiro capítulo desta dissertação), são consideradas três plantas industriais de processamento de citros na análise de investimento, com base no mix de produção, além de incorporar um mecanismo de precificação para a caixa de laranja a ser paga ao citricultor, através do modelo CONSECITRUS. Utilizou-se a metodologia de fluxos de caixa descontados, calculando os indicadores de Valor Presente Líquido - VPL, Taxa Interna de Retorno - TIR, Payback - PB e Payback descontado - PBD para os projetos. Os resultados indicaram que há viabilidade em todos os modelos e cenários analisados. Porém, através da análise probabilística, constatou-se a existência de um risco financeiro elevado, mensurado através do quantil negativo da distribuição do VPL. Embora o risco financeiro seja expressivo, verificou-se que o modelo CONSECITRUS proporcionaria à indústria um grau de risco, moderadamente, menor do que aquele que vigora atualmente. Neste contexto, a citricultura brasileira mostra-se como uma atividade razoavelmente rentável no longo prazo, embora esteja sujeita a um elevado nível de risco. / This study is composed of two articles aimed to analyze the relative and absolute margins of commercialization of orange processing industry and the economic and financial feasibility for the implementation of this venture in the state of São Paulo. Although it is an important agribusiness production chain for the country, it observed a deterioration of relations between citrus fruit growers and the processing industry of orange juice. After a brief introduction and justification of the problem in the first chapter, in the second chapter it is possible to analyze marketing margins of the citrus industry. When the revenue from exports of by-products is included, it was found that the industry has operated with positive and higher relative margins. In the second article (the third chapter of this dissertation), three industrial plants of citrus processing are considered in the financial analysis, based on the mix of production, in addition to incorporate a pricing mechanism for the orange box to be paid to the grower through the CONSECITRUS model. The methodology of discounted cash flows was used for calculating the net present value of indicators - NPV, internal rate of return - IRR, Payback - PB and Payback discounted - PBD for the projects. The results indicated that there is feasibility in all models and scenarios analyzed. However, through the probabilistic analysis it was found that there is a high financial risk, measured through the negative quantile of the NPV distribution. Although the financial risk is significant, it appeared that the CONSECITRUS model would offer the industry a risk, lower than the one currently in effect. In this context, the Brazilian citrus industry proves to be a reasonably profitable activity in the long term, although it is subject to a high level of risk.

O dimensionamento da capacidade de produção é um processo de vital importância para o sucesso das empresas, ainda mais quando se está inserido em um mercado de alta sazonalidade. Entretanto, este processo na maioria das vezes não é amplamente discutido internamente nas organizações. Freqüentemente, quando se necessita alterar a capacidade de produção das organizações devido a alterações nas previsões de demanda, atua-se apenas no dimensionamento dos recursos de forma direta ou, em casos extremos de aumento da demanda e indisponibilidade de investimentos, chega-se a efetuar o corte das vendas. Ao contrário disto, a tomada de decisão para o dimensionamento da capacidade de produção deve ser considerada como um processo gerenciável de forma sistêmica, confiável e robusta, influenciada pelo uso de ferramentas importantes como definições de cenários, análises quantitativa e qualitativa. Esta dissertação apresenta uma sistemática para apoiar o dimensionamento econômico da capacidade de produção de empresas com demanda sazonal. A sistemática prevê a discussão do dimensionamento da capacidade de produção considerando quatro grandes fases: identificação e exploração, análises e proposições de alternativas, ação e implementação de um melhor cenário escolhido e, finalmente, avaliações e observações do cenário implementado. Para cada uma das fases alguns passos e etapas foram definidos e, posteriormente, validados através da aplicação desta sistemática no dimensionamento da capacidade de produção da área de usinagem de uma empresa fabricante de máquinas agrícolas. A aplicação desta sistemática trouxe como resultado para a área de usinagem a implementação de um processo robusto e que auxilia na tomada de decisão quando se está inserido em um cenário onde ocorre a previsão de aumento da demanda. A sistemática trouxe benefícios de organização das informações e de se fazer a tomada de decisão para a escolha de um cenário com base nas análises de economicidade dos cenários estudados, porém mostrou-se bastante sensível à acuracidade das previsões de demanda, o que aponta, em futuras aplicações, para uma necessária flexibilização dessa variável pela realização de análise de sensibilidade. / The production capacity sizing is a key process for companies’ success, even more if the organization is involved in a high seasonal environment. However, this process is often not fully discussed by the organizations for decision-making. When it is needed to review the production capacity sizing due to demand predictions, most companies act directly upon the quantity of equipment and redesign the process or, in cases the demand is higher than the production capacity and the company is unprepared to invest to increase capacity the decision is to cut sales. Instead of this, companies should consider production capacity sizing as a manageable, in a systemic way, reliable and robust process. The decision-making for this process should be influenced by scenarios definitions, economic and qualitative analysis. This work presents a method to help the economic sizing of production capacity for companies that are involved in seasonal environment. This method includes a discussion about capacity sizing considering four important phases: identification and exploration, analysis and proposals of alternatives, actions and implementation of the best scenario chosen and, finally evaluation and observations from the implemented scenario. In each phase, steps and activities are defined and illustrated through an application at a machining department of an agricultural machinery maker company. The application of this method at the machining area of the company resulted in a robust and reliable process implemented to help in decisionmaking when it is needed to review the production capacity based on demand predictions. The method brought benefits to organize the information and practice decision-making to choose the best scenario based on economic analysis, however the method proved to be very sensitive to the accuracy of demand predictions, which points, in future applications, to a necessary flexibility of this variable by conducting sensitivity analysis.

A análise de investimentos é um processo de vital importância para uma organização, pois envolve o orçamento de capital da empresa na busca de projetos que tragam rentabilidade, perpetuidade, além de ter ligação direta com os objetivos estratégicos traçados. Entretanto, este processo muitas vezes não é discutido internamente nas empresas, as quais geralmente focam somente na etapa de avaliação econômica dos projetos, não desenvolvendo o processo de uma forma sistêmica e estruturada, nem considerando outros aspectos qualitativos na decisão. Desta forma, o presente trabalho apresenta um proposta de sistemática para análise multicriterial de investimentos, discutindo particularmente as quatro grandes fases do processo de análise: identificação, avaliação, priorização e seleção e acompanhamento de projetos. Para cada fase, algumas etapas e atividades foram definidas e posteriormente validadas em uma empresa do ramo automotivo. Para auxiliar a estruturação da sistemática são utilizados métodos de avaliação econômica tradicionais como VPL, TIR e payback, além de um método de análise multicriterial, chamado NCIC, e do uso de programação linear para definição de um portfólio ótimo de investimentos. O uso em conjunto de tais métodos permitiu a elaboração de uma ferramenta chamada PAMP – Planilha para Avaliação Multicriterial de Investimentos. Durante a validação da sistemática foi definida uma equipe multifuncional para a busca e avaliação de investimentos. Esta equipe foi treinada, os fluxos de caixa dos projetos elencados foram projetados e a partir do uso da PAMP dois ranking foram desenvolvidos: primeiramente, um ranking econômico, ordenando os projetos conforme seus resultados (VPL), e em um segundo momento, um ranking multicriterial, incorporando ao VPL o valor agregado dos atributos qualitativos de cada projeto. Após, usando programação linear, foi modelado o portfólio ótimo sob o ponto de vista econômico e qualitativo, incorporando o racionamento de capital entre outras restrições. Como resultado observou-se que apesar dos atributos qualitativos serem relevantes para a tomada de decisão, o critério que mais influencia a empresa ainda é o econômico. Além disso, percebeu-se uma boa aderência da sistemática proposta no ambiente empresarial, destacando como principais benefícios (i) a estruturação de uma lista de projetos, discutindo as origens dos mesmos e suas ligações com a estratégia da empresa; (ii) capacitação dos colaboradores formando uma estrutura de apoio interna que dê suporte conceitual ao processo de análise de investimentos; (iii) estruturação lógica do processo de análise de investimentos, indicando ferramentas de simples uso e com potencial interação; e (iv) melhoria contínua do processo através da comparação projetado versus realizado e retroalimentação do sistema de análise de investimentos. / Investment analysis is a key process in organizations. It involves the capital budgeting of companies to identify projects that brings profitability, perpetuity and direct connection with strategic goals. However, this kind of process is not often internally discussed in companies, which usually focus on the economic evaluation phase only, in spite of a structured process where qualitative aspects are considered in the decision-making. This work presents a method for multi-criteria investment analysis, particularly discussing the four most important phases in the analysis: identification, evaluation, prioritization and selection and project monitoring. In each phase, steps and activities are defined and illustrated through an application in an automotive company. Traditional evaluation methods, such as NPV, IRR and payback, in addition to a multi-criteria decision-making technique, named NCIC, and linear programming are used to support the method. The use of such techniques led to the creation of an analysis tool called PAMP – Spreadsheet for Multi-criteria Investments Analysis. During the application of the method a multi-functional team was selected and trained to search and evaluate investment opportunities. The projects cash flows were specified and, through the use of PAMP, two rankings were developed: an economic ranking, ordering the results of each project (NPV), and a multi-criteria ranking, including qualitative aspects of each project. Next, linear programming was used and a project portfolio was modeled considering economic and qualitative issues, such as capital rationing and other restrictions. As a result, it was observed that despite the fact that qualitative aspects are important in the final decision, the economic aspect is still the main drive in the company. In addition, it was verified that the proposed method was adapted successfully to the company environment; its main benefits: (i) the creation of a project list, stressing its connections to the firm strategy; (ii) training of a team that gives support to the investment analysis process; (iii) creation of a logical structure for investment analysis,based on powerful yet easy to use tools; and (iv) continuous improvement of the process.

Zhang, Wanqing. / Leaf 138 numbered in duplicate. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2010. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 138-143). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / 摘要 --- p.ii / Acknowledgement --- p.iii / Table of Content --- p.iv / List of Tables --- p.vi / List of Figures / Chapter Chapter 1: --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- An Overview of the Tourism Industry --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Research Motivation --- p.3 / Chapter 1.3 --- Outline --- p.8 / Chapter Chapter 2： --- Literature Review --- p.9 / Chapter Chapter 3： --- The Data and Methodology --- p.14 / Chapter 3.1 --- Dataset --- p.14 / Chapter 3.2 --- Methodology --- p.21 / Chapter Chapter 4： --- Empirical Evidence For Tourism Industry --- p.25 / Chapter 4.1 --- Hypothesis --- p.26 / Chapter 4.2 --- Evidence for the tourism stocks --- p.27 / Chapter 4.3 --- Decomposition of Returns --- p.42 / Chapter 4.4 --- Seasonality --- p.52 / Chapter Chapter 5： --- Empirical Evidence For The Market --- p.56 / Chapter 5.1 --- Momentum and reversal effect in general market --- p.57 / Chapter 5.1.1 --- Profitability and Return Performance --- p.57 / Chapter 5.1.2 --- Seasonality --- p.66 / Chapter 5.2 --- Tourism industry vs. General market --- p.70 / Chapter Chapter 6： --- Explaining The Momentum And Reversal Effect: Capital Asset Pricing Model --- p.73 / Chapter 6.1 --- Capmand three-factor model --- p.74 / Chapter 6.2 --- Evidence from tourism stocks --- p.86 / Chapter Chapter 7： --- Explaining The Momentum And Reversal Effect: Fundamentals --- p.92 / Chapter 7.1 --- Movements in fundamentals --- p.95 / Chapter 7.1.1 --- Fundamental hypothesis --- p.95 / Chapter 7.12 --- Movement in profits --- p.96 / Chapter 7.2 --- Using Logit Model To Explore Differences Between The Winner And The Loser Portfolio --- p.108 / Chapter 7.2.1 --- Induction of a binary choice approach- logit regression model --- p.108 / Chapter 7.2.2 --- MODEL I: Using changes in ROA --- p.113 / Chapter 7.2.3 --- MODEL II: Using coded Ret-ROA --- p.115 / Chapter 7.2.4 --- MODEL III: Multi-variable logistic regression --- p.118 / Chapter Chapter 8: --- The Price Impact Of Institutional Investors To Tourism Stocks --- p.120 / Chapter 8.1 --- Changes of institutional ownership in tourism stocks --- p.122 / Chapter 8.2 --- Regression Results --- p.126 / Chapter Chapter 9: --- Conclusion --- p.132 / Reference --- p.138