This thesis investigates the causes and patterns of glacier and ice shelf changes across Northern Ellesmere Island, including rapid recent changes to marine-terminating glaciers and the mass balance of the Milne Ice Shelf along Ellesmere Island’s northern coastline. The first part describes the change in the areal extent of 1773 glacier basins across northern Ellesmere Island between ~1999 and ~2015 that were measured from optical satellite imagery. The results show that the regional ice coverage decreased by 1705.3 km2 over the ~16-year period, a loss of ~5.9%. This indicates a marked acceleration compared to the 3.4% loss recorded by Sharp et al. (2014) between ~1960 and ~2000. Ice shelves had the greatest losses relative to their size, of ~42.4%. Glaciers feeding into ice shelves reduced in area by 4.7%, while tidewater glaciers reduced in area by 3.3%. Marine-terminating glaciers with floating ice tongues reduced in area by 4.9% and 19 of 27 ice tongues disintegrated, causing these glaciers to retreat to their grounding lines. Land-terminating glaciers lost 4.9% of their 1999 area, including the complete loss of three small ice caps (<1.5 km2). These changes indicate the high sensitivity of the ice cover of northern Ellesmere Island to recent climate warming, and that continued losses are likely to occur in the future. In particular, the ice masses most susceptible to further losses are marine-terminating glaciers with floating termini and small land-terminating ice caps at low elevations. To further investigate the forcings leading to the recent losses of floating ice tongues, the second part focuses on marine-terminating glacier changes in the Yelverton Bay region of northern Ellesmere Island since 1959. From 1959-2017, the total ice tongue area decreased by 49.07 km2, with the majority of this loss occurring from 2005-2009 (34.68 km2). The loss of ice tongues since 2005 occurred when open water replaced multi-year landfast sea ice and first-year sea ice in the regions adjacent to the ice tongues. These changes were accompanied by an increase in mean annual mid-depth (i.e., 100 and 200 m) ocean temperatures from -0.29°C from 1999-2005 to 0.67°C from 2006-2012. Despite the recent return of ocean temperatures to below pre-2006 levels, atmospheric summer temperatures have continued to rise (+0.15°C decade-1 between 1948 and 2016), with open water continuing to occur. This suggests that loss of buttressing from sea ice appears to be the primary control on ice tongue losses, with air and ocean warming important in weakening the sea ice and ice tongues, together with offshore wind events in some years. Based on current climate it is unlikely that ice tongues will reform in the future. To examine the stability of the remaining ice shelves, the Milne Ice Shelf was selected as a case study to analyse the processes and patterns of surface mass balance. In 2008 a mass balance network of eight stakes was established across the Milne Ice Shelf and over the past 10 years has revealed a mean annual surface mass balance of -0.33 ±0.04 m water equivalent yr-1. Comparison of this surface mass balance rate with past ice thickness change measurements made by Mortimer et al. (2012) indicate that recent thinning may be limited to the surface, and accelerating over time. Individual stake and snow measurements reveal a surface mass balance gradient, whereby ablation decreases with proximity to the seaward edge of the ice shelf. The ablation gradient is driven by the microclimatology recorded at three automatic weather stations installed along the ice shelf, which show that air temperature and solar radiation decreases towards the coastline, while snow accumulation increases. Climate analysis suggests that the entire Milne Ice Shelf is in a state of negative mass balance in years with >200 melting degree days (MDD), while the one net positive balance year (in 2013) occurred when MDD totals were 105 yr-1. Although the Milne Ice Shelf is the most stable remaining ice shelf along the northern coast of Ellesmere Island, the relationship between climate and mass balance, along with a recent increase in calving along its landward margins, indicate that it is out of equilibrium with current climate. Overall, the ice coverage across northern Ellesmere Island is shrinking. The land-terminating ice that formed under cooler climatic conditions of the past, particularly low-lying small ice caps, are out of equilibrium with current climatological conditions. In addition, recent changes in the ice tongues and ice shelves demonstrate that the northern coastline of Ellesmere Island is approaching a future where the permanent floating ice cover can no longer be sustained.

No description available.

Ice shelves play an important role in the mass balance of an ice sheet, by providing a link between the ocean and ice. Melting at the base of an ice shelf can play a vital role in its mass balance and stability. Topographic channel features have been found on the base of ice shelves, and have been found to alter melting, however the mechanism behind this alteration is unknown. Petermann Glacier is a major outlet glacier in North West Greenland, draining approximately 6&percnt; of Greenland Ice Sheet. It terminates in a long, thin ice shelf, constrained within a high-walled fjord. The ice shelf has pronounced longitudinal channel features on its base, which limited observations suggest direct ocean currents in a mixed layer of ocean and melt waters, focusing melt in these regions. Petermann Glacier underwent two large calving events in 2010 and 2012, and the impact of these events, or possible further calving events, on basal melting is unknown. Using the MITgcm to model the ocean cavity beneath an idealised ice shelf, this thesis discusses the impact of basal channels on interactions at the ice base and circulation within the cavity. This is supplemented with a modelling investigation into the interactions beneath Petermann Glacier, and the impact of recent calving events. The inclusion of channels was found to have a stabilising effect on the ice shelf by decreasing the mean basal melt rate, caused by the refocusing, and decrease in intensity of, the meltwater layer flow beneath the ice shelf. This stabilisation and resulting 'survivor bias' explains why channels are commonly found on the base of warm water ice shelves. The model of Petermann Glacier found similar melt patterns to observational studies, however with a lesser magnitude. The calving events of 2010 and 2012 removed areas of ice shelf with low melt rates, resulting in little impact on the overall volume of ice removed through ocean melting, though further calving would vastly reduce the volume of ice melted. One consequence of calving is the increase in melting-induced undercutting at the ice front, leading to the potential for enhanced secondary calving.

This thesis analyses satellite-based radar data to improve our understanding of the interactions between the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the ocean in the Amundsen Sea Sector of West Antarctica. Over the last two decades, the European Remote Sensing (ERS) Satellites have provided extensive observations of the marine and cryospheric environments of this region. Here I use this data record to develop new datasets and methods for studying the nature and drivers of ongoing change in this sector. Firstly, I develop a new bathymetric map of the Amundsen Sea, which serves to provide improved boundary conditions for models of (1) ocean heat transfer to the ice sheet margin, and (2) past ice sheet behaviour and extent. This new map augments sparse ship-based depth soundings with dense gravity data acquired from ERS altimetry and achieves an RMS depth accuracy of 120 meters. An evaluation of this technique indicates that the inclusion of gravity data improves the depth accuracy by up to 17 % and reveals glaciologically-important features in regions devoid of ship surveys. Secondly, I use ERS synthetic aperture radar observations of the tidal motion of ice shelves to assess the accuracy of tide models in the Amundsen Sea. Tide models contribute to simulations of ocean circulation and are used to remove unwanted signals from estimates of ice shelf flow velocities. The quality of tide models directly affects the accuracy of such estimates yet, due to a lack of in situ records, tide model accuracy in this region is poorly constrained. Here I use two methods to determine that tide model accuracy in the Amundsen Sea is of the order of 10 cm. Finally, I develop a method to map 2-d ice shelf flow velocity from stacked conventional and multiple aperture radar interferograms. Estimates of ice shelf flow provide detail of catchment stability, and the processes driving glaciological change in the Amundsen Sea. However, velocity estimates can be contaminated by ocean tide and atmospheric pressure signals. I minimise these signals by stacking interferograms, a process which synthesises a longer observation period, and enhances long-period (flow) displacement signals, relative to rapidly-varying (tide and atmospheric pressure) ones. This avoids the reliance upon model predictions of tide and atmospheric pressure, which can be uncertain in remote regions. Ice loss from Amundsen Sea glaciers forms the largest component of Antarctica’s total contribution to sea level, yet because present models cannot adequately characterise the processes driving this system, future glacier evolution is uncertain. Observations and models implicate the ocean as the driver of glaciological change in this region and have focussed attention on improving our understanding of the nature of ice-ocean interactions in the Amundsen Sea. This thesis contributes datasets and methods that will aid historical reconstructions, current monitoring and future modelling of these processes.

The aim of this research was to demonstrate the relationship between variations in summertime surface mass balance of the McMurdo Ice Shelf and atmospheric processes. The approach encompassed a broad range of techniques. An existing energy balance mass balance model was adapted to deal with debris-covered ice surfaces and modified to produce distributed output. Point based surface energy and mass balance for two key surfaces of the ice shelf were linked to different synoptic types that were identified using a manual synoptic classification. The distributed model was initialised with distributed parameters derived from satellite remote sensing and forced with data from a regional climate model. Patterns of summertime surface mass balance produced by the distributed model were assessed against stake measurements and with respect to atmospheric processes. During the summers of 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 an automatic weather station (AWS) was operated on bare and debris-covered ice surfaces of the McMurdo Ice shelf, Antarctica. Surface mass balance was calculated using the energy balance model driven by the data from the AWS and additional data from permanent climate stations. Net mass balance for the measurement period was reproduced reasonably well when validated against directly measured turbulent fluxes, stake measurements, and continuously measured surface height at the AWS. For the bare ice surface net radiation provided the major energy input for ablation, whereas sensible heat flux was a second heat source. Ablation was by both melt (70%) and sublimation (30%). At the debris-covered ice site investigated, it is inferred that the debris cover is sufficient to insulate the underlying ice from ablation. Synoptic weather situations were analysed based on AVHRR composite images and surface pressure charts. Three distinct synoptic situations were found to occur during the summers, these were defined as Type A, low pressure system residing in the Ross Sea Embayment; Type B, anticyclonic conditions across region; and Type C, a trough of low pressure extending into the Ross Sea Embayment. A dependence of surface energy fluxes and mass balance on synoptic situation was identified for the bare ice surface. The distributed model was found to produce spatial patterns of mass balance which compared well with stake measurements. Mass balance patterns show that the McMurdo Ice Shelf was generally ablating in the west, and accumulating in the east during summer. Areas of enhanced ablation were found which were likely to be caused by the surface conditions and topographic effects on the wind field. The mean summertime surface mass balance across the entire ice shelf for the 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 summers were –2.5 mm w.e. and –6.7 mm w.e. respectively. The differences between the two summers are inferred to be a result of more frequent type A conditions occurring during the summer of 2004-2005.

The aim of this research was to demonstrate the relationship between variations in summertime surface mass balance of the McMurdo Ice Shelf and atmospheric processes. The approach encompassed a broad range of techniques. An existing energy balance mass balance model was adapted to deal with debris-covered ice surfaces and modified to produce distributed output. Point based surface energy and mass balance for two key surfaces of the ice shelf were linked to different synoptic types that were identified using a manual synoptic classification. The distributed model was initialised with distributed parameters derived from satellite remote sensing and forced with data from a regional climate model. Patterns of summertime surface mass balance produced by the distributed model were assessed against stake measurements and with respect to atmospheric processes. During the summers of 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 an automatic weather station (AWS) was operated on bare and debris-covered ice surfaces of the McMurdo Ice shelf, Antarctica. Surface mass balance was calculated using the energy balance model driven by the data from the AWS and additional data from permanent climate stations. Net mass balance for the measurement period was reproduced reasonably well when validated against directly measured turbulent fluxes, stake measurements, and continuously measured surface height at the AWS. For the bare ice surface net radiation provided the major energy input for ablation, whereas sensible heat flux was a second heat source. Ablation was by both melt (70%) and sublimation (30%). At the debris-covered ice site investigated, it is inferred that the debris cover is sufficient to insulate the underlying ice from ablation. Synoptic weather situations were analysed based on AVHRR composite images and surface pressure charts. Three distinct synoptic situations were found to occur during the summers, these were defined as Type A, low pressure system residing in the Ross Sea Embayment; Type B, anticyclonic conditions across region; and Type C, a trough of low pressure extending into the Ross Sea Embayment. A dependence of surface energy fluxes and mass balance on synoptic situation was identified for the bare ice surface. The distributed model was found to produce spatial patterns of mass balance which compared well with stake measurements. Mass balance patterns show that the McMurdo Ice Shelf was generally ablating in the west, and accumulating in the east during summer. Areas of enhanced ablation were found which were likely to be caused by the surface conditions and topographic effects on the wind field. The mean summertime surface mass balance across the entire ice shelf for the 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 summers were –2.5 mm w.e. and –6.7 mm w.e. respectively. The differences between the two summers are inferred to be a result of more frequent type A conditions occurring during the summer of 2004-2005.

In this thesis, I explore the flow dynamics associated with ice shelves confined within channels and the buttressing they provide to grounded ice. Ice shelves are the floating extensions of ice sheets and act as the interface between the ice sheet and the ocean. They form when ice flows out from the interior of the ice sheet towards the coast and begins to float as the ice thins. Ice shelves are often found within a channel or pinned in place by stationary bedrock outcrops. The interest in their dynamics is motivated by the buttressing effect they provide to the grounded ice, which strongly controls the rate of ice discharge and thereby the contribution to sea-level rise. I use a combination of mathematical modeling, fluid-mechanical laboratory experiments and geophysical data analysis to develop an improved understanding of ice-shelf flow dynamics. Initially, geophysical data in the form of Antarctic ice-surface velocity data is analysed, producing maps of strain rate, shear rate and strain orientation for Antarctic ice shelves. This allows the geophysical setting and flow processes to be explored, particularly by identifying areas where resistance to ice flow is generated and regions of the shelf that make no contribution to buttressing. Using the geophysical data, I find good agreement between a theoretical scaling relationship for ice flow at the ice-shelf calving front and data from Antarctic ice shelves. I proceed to develop an idealized mathematical model of an ice shelf confined to flow in a channel. By assuming shear-dominated dynamics within the shelf, analytical solutions are obtained for steady-state ice-shelf thickness profiles in parallel and diverging channels. This model is developed further to include both shear and extensional stresses, from which numerical solutions for steady-state shelves are calculated. The results from these two models are then compared. It is found that shear stresses dominate the dynamics throughout the majority of the shelf, with adjustment regions at the upstream and downstream boundaries where extensional dynamics become important. Output from these models is also compared with geophysical data and it is observed that there is good agreement between several features of the thickness profiles and velocity fields. In addition to the geophysical data, comparisons are made with fluid-mechanical laboratory experiments designed to simulate the flow of an ice shelf in a channel. The advantage of performing experiments of this kind is that parameters such as the fluid rheology can be varied, allowing for direct comparison with a range of parameters in the mathematical models. From these experiments, surface velocity fields and thickness profiles are collected, which are used to make comparisons with the models. Clear differences are observed in the velocity and strain-rate fields produced using fluids with different rheologies, for which there is qualitative agreement with the output from the mathematical models.

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass and contributing to global sea-level rise. Ice shelves, floating ice attached to the margins of the ice sheets, modulate sea-level rise by restraining ice-sheet flow out towards the oceans, but are sensitive to surface melting. The formation of surface meltwater lakes on ice shelves can trigger rapid ice-shelf collapse. However, surface meltwater also flows atop ice shelves through rivers. The impact of rivers on ice-shelf stability is unknown. Previous studies of ice-shelf hydrology hypothesize that rivers mitigate the damage-potential of lakes by removing surface water off of the ice shelf, but also suggest that rivers enhance ice-shelf fracturing by incising into areas of already thin ice. This dissertation is focused on exploring the role of rivers on ice-shelf stability using remote sensing datasets, conceptual models, and Augmented Reality (AR). Focusing on ice shelves in Greenland, I present the discovery of a new ice-shelf surface hydrology feature, an ice-shelf estuary, and demonstrate its potential to weaken ice shelves. I fully document this new process on the Petermann Ice Shelf, where flow reverses at the mouth of the Petermann Estuary. This study marks the first observation of ocean water atop an ice shelf. I also document the initiation and growth of fracturing along the estuary channel, and a history of rectilinear calving events, where icebergs calve along longitudinal rivers. Based on this analysis of the Petermann Estuary, I propose a new mechanism for damaging ice shelves: estuarine weakening. I present evidence that this process also occurs on the Ryder Ice Shelf in northwest Greenland. My analysis demonstrates that the role of rivers on ice-shelf stability depends on how the river mouth evolves. If ice-shelf waterfalls at the river mouth incise to sea level and form estuaries, flow reversal will modulate water export off the shelf and maintain the damage-potential of lakes, and estuarine weakening may lead to a new mode of ice-shelf calving. By analyzing the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the Petermann and Ryder Ice Shelves and Estuaries with remote sensing and radar data, I find that basal channels are an important driver of estuary development as they dictate the linearity of surface rivers. Determining the role that basal channels play in estuary formation requires accurate and appropriate data visualization tools. I develop AR applications to visualize radar data on ice shelves, towards enabling more intuitive and sophisticated interpretation of the ice-shelf structure in 3D. Through simple conceptual modeling, I suggest that although basal channels precondition ice-shelf estuary formation, estuary formation is strongly controlled by river incision. Finally, I present a model of ice-shelf estuary formation as a function of surface and basal melting. Using this conceptual model, I predict that ice-shelf estuaries could form in Antarctica in the near future. Surface melting in Antarctica is predicted to increase in under half a century. Estuary formation in Antarctica will be accelerated by lengthening of the melt season, and estuaries may form far from the calving front if rivers intersect upstream rifts. I show that ice-shelf estuaries could evolve from ice-shelf rivers in a warming Antarctica, introducing new ice-shelf weakening mechanisms. This increases the urgency to understand and include ice-shelf estuarine processes in ice-sheet models.

Cette thèse concerne la modélisation des calottes de glace qui ont couvert l'hémisphère nord durant les dernières périodes glaciaires. Des améliorations de la physique ont été effectéees sur le modèle de calotte de glace Antarctique du LGGE, nommé GRISLI, afin de rendre ce modèle portable sur l'hémisphère nord. Une nouvelle méthode pour déterminer la position du front des ice shelves (plates-formes de glace flottante) a été mise au point, des conditions aux limites spécifiques au front des ice shelves ont été ajoutées. Un nouveau schéma pour le drainage de l'eau sous-glaciaire et un critère basé sur la pression de l'eau sous-glaciaire ont permis de localiser les ice streams (ou fleuves de glace) de façon bien plus réaliste qu'auparavant. Ce nouveau modèle est appliqué aux calottes de l'hémisphère nord et simule leur évolution lors du dernier cycle glaciaire-interglaciaire en comparant l'impact relatif du bilan de masse en surface et de la dynamique. L'évolution de la calotte eurasienne aurout de l'évènement à 90 000 ans (BP) a été détaillée pour étudier l'impact des lacs proglaciaires et le rôle des ice shelves pendant l'avancée et le retrait sur les mers de Barents et de Kara.

In this thesis, I have used remote sensing and modeling techniques to investigate Antarctic ice shelf surface hydrology with the purpose of answering three key questions: 1) How do surface drainage systems evolve over a typical summertime melt season, over several consecutive melt seasons, and over several decades? 2) What controls the expansion of surface hydrology networks? and 3) Will surface drainage expand into areas vulnerable to hydrofracture and important for buttressing when meltwater volume increases in a warmer, future climate? In Chapter 1, our analysis of satellite observations of Amery Ice Shelf’s surface drainage networks suggests that their downstream extent varies inter-annually, that this variability is not simply the result of inter-annually variability in melt rates, and that ice-shelf topography plays a crucial role. Consecutive years of extensive melting lead to year-on-year expansion of the drainage system, potentially through a link between melt production, refreezing in firn, and the maximum extent of the lakes at the downstream termini of drainage. These mechanisms are important when evaluating the potential of drainage systems to grow in response to increased melting, delivering meltwater to areas of ice shelves vulnerable to hydrofracture. In Chapter 2, we use high resolution elevation data to delineate hydrologic catchments on Amery, Roi Baudouin, Larsen C, Nivlisen, and Riiser-Larsen Ice Shelves. We compare our results spatially with modelled present-day melt production, future melt predictions, and stress-based vulnerability to hydrofracture, to examine the controls on these hydrologically important characteristics of the topography. The high volume elevation data present computational challenges that cannot be overcome with traditional data analysis workflows. Therefore, pre-processing for catchment delineation is made possible by parallelizing these tasks with the computational power of cloud-based cluster computing. Catchments with high basin volumes are found clustered near grounding lines and nunataks, and these catchments are bordered down-glacier by broader, low volume catchments. We hypothesize that once meltwater production fills these catchments, we should expect to see overflow of meltwater, extending drainage systems downstream to the calving fronts or into areas vulnerable to hydrofracture. In Chapter 3, we use the digital elevation data from Chapter 2 as the input for an idealizedwater routing model of the eastern and western Amery Ice Shelf, Nivlisen Ice Shelf, and Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf to investigate this drainage network expansion. In our comparison with previous observational studies, we find that our modelled drainage networks show similar drainage network patterns, despite having several discrepancies in drainage network arrangement and water ponding locations. We use our model to investigate the expansion of the drainage network with average annual melt from the regional climate model RACMO. In one model run, we use the spatial distribution of average annual melt from an overlapping RACMO subset, in the other, we input a spatially-averaged melt production of the same subset of RACMO. We compare the results of these simulations to investigate if the expansion of these drainage systems is controlled predominantly by near-surface climate via water input, or if topography also plays a role. We find variability both between drainage systems and within a single drainage system, and that within all of our selected drainage systems, topography exerts some control over expansion. The responsiveness of a drainage network system to spatially variable meltwater input may affect how susceptible the system is to expansion, thus the spatial distribution of melt input must be represented in an ice shelf stability projection model. As melt input increases in a warmer future Antarctic, it will be increasingly important tounderstand how surface melting may affect ice shelf stability. This thesis shows several proof-of-concept approaches towards modelling future expansion of surface drainage networks on Antarctic ice shelves. We find that the spatial variability of melt does impact the expansion rate of drainage networks across ice shelf areas potentially vulnerable to hydrofracture. This thesis posits that with more year-on-year meltwater drainage system growth, meltwater-induced hydrofracture may become an increasingly regular occurrence on Antarctic ice shelves.