Fertility patterns in European Union Abstract The main objective of the thesis is to create a typology of fertility in the countries of European Union. The variables entering the analysis are demographic indicators of fertility (total fertility rate, mean age of women at first birth) and opinion poll Eurobarometer 75.4 (ideal number of children, sociodemographic variables). Fertility is analyzed from 1960 until 2014. The main part of the thesis focuses on 2011, when census and opinion poll were conducted. Deeper analysis is performed by using cluster analysis and Poisson regression. The result of the thesis is the typology of fertility based on theories explaining fertility changes and empirical analysis. Keywords: fertility, typology, European Union, ideal number of children, cluster analysis, Poisson regression

本研究旨在探討是否是因女性意識的抬頭，導致台灣生育率下降，還是誠如Peter McDonald(2000)所言，由於婦女運動，導致社會允許女性在教育與就業上擁有等同於男性的機會，其稱之為個人取向制度上的性別平等，但在家庭方面，卻仍是維持男主外、女主內的傳統男性養家者模式思考，認為女性為家庭中的顧老者、護幼者，其稱之為家庭取向制度上的性別不平等，以致於女性要面對家庭照顧與工作壓力的雙重負擔，但這樣的現象並不會對女性的理想子女數造成影響，卻會使實際生育數下降；研究工具為2004年國民健康局「家庭與生育力調查」第九次調查已婚問卷資料，有效樣本數為2,865人。 研究結果發現，擁有較平等的性別角色態度之已婚育齡婦女，的確有較低的理想子女數與實際生育數，但依照描述性統計狀況來看，我國婦女並非不想生育，而是降低了自己的理想子女數與實際生育數；而我國家庭內家務分工不均的狀況，雖不符合研究者假設家務分工平等的女性有較高的實際生育數，但是深入探討發現，我國社會現況確實符合Peter McDonald(2000)所說，因為女性意識覺醒，促使社會處理個人在教育與就業上的制度性別平等，但我國社會家庭制度仍是維持傳統男性養家者模式，要求女性負擔家庭中絕大部分家務工作，欠缺顧老、護幼之協調工作與家庭照顧政策，以至於女性無法負擔工作與家庭衝突，因而降低了自己的生育數。 最後，研究者依研究發現嘗試對政府部門提出相關建議，供未來家庭政策與實務參考。 / The purpose of this study is to know the reason for fertility decline of the married women aged in 20-49 years in Taiwan. Whether it is due to the rise of feminist consciousness, or as the theory Peter McDonald (2000) discussed. Peter McDonald thinks that since women’s movement are springing up, the society allows women to have the same opportunities like men in education and employment. He called it as gender equal in individual-oriented institutions. But in fact, it is still maintaining the traditional male breadwinner model in the family. Female still plays the main role to take care children and elders. He called it as gender inequity in family-oriented institutions. Such institutions lead to fertility decline. The data used for this study were from 2004“the ninth investigation of family and fertility ability in Taiwan ”held by the research Institute of Bureau of health promotion department of health, Taiwan R.O.C. (sample size=2865). The main finding of this study is to prove that the married women in childbearing age, who has more egalitarian gender role attitude, will have lower ideal number of children and the actual number of births. Based on the general statistic condition in Taiwan, the situation are similar to Peter McDonald's thought. But there is something different, the unequal division housework is still within the family, which is not just like the researcher’s assumption: an equal division of housework women have a higher actual number of births. Despite the variable, the reason of fertility decline in Taiwan still confirms Peter McDonald’s theory. The awakening of women’s consciousness accelerate gender equal in individual-oriented and family-oriented institutions. But still, the traditional model asked women to undertake most parts of housework. The deficient in public welfare and family care policy will make female not be able to get the balance between work and family. Such institutions caused fertility decline in Taiwan. Finally, according to the study result, there are several suggestions which can be contributed to future policy and practical advice of family reference for government.

L'Afrique subsaharienne est actuellement un point focal dans les études démographiques, principalement en raison de ses dynamiques uniques lors de la transition démographique. Au cœur de cette attention, les intentions de fécondité jouent un rôle crucial, justifiant la sélection de cette étude visant à approfondir la compréhension de l'influence de la famille d'origine sur les préférences en matière de fécondité chez les femmes à Madagascar. Cette analyse se concentre sur deux variables dépendantes, à savoir le désir d'enfant et le nombre idéal d'enfants, ainsi que deux variables indépendantes clés, à savoir l'ordre de naissance et la taille de la fratrie. Bien qu'explorée de manière exhaustive dans les pays développés disposant de données complètes accessibles, cette étude apporte une contribution significative à la compréhension de cette relation dans le contexte de la région subsaharienne. En s'appuyant sur les données de l'Enquête Démographique et de Santé (EDS) de 2008-2009, cette étude se base sur un échantillon analytique de femmes en âge de procréer, spécifiquement entre 15 et 49 ans. Des analyses descriptives et des régressions ont été appliquées, et les résultats révèlent un impact négligeable de l'ordre de naissance sur les préférences en matière de fécondité, tandis qu'un effet positif et statistiquement significatif de la taille de la fratrie sur ces préférences est mis en évidence. Cette étude enrichit notre compréhension des déterminants de la fécondité à Madagascar en mettant en lumière le rôle significatif de la famille d'origine, en particulier la taille du groupe de frères et sœurs, dans les préférences en matière de fécondité. / Sub-Saharan Africa is currently a focal point in demographic studies, primarily due to its unique dynamics during the demographic transition. Central to this focus, fertility intentions play a crucial role, justifying the selection of this study aimed at deepening the understanding of the influence of the family of origin on fertility preferences among women in Madagascar. This analysis focuses on two dependent variables, namely the desire for children and the ideal number of children, as well as two key independent variables, namely birth order and sibling size. While extensively explored in developed countries with accessible comprehensive data, this study makes a significant contribution to understanding this relationship in the context of the sub-Saharan region. Leveraging data from the 2008-2009 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), this study draws on an analytical sample of women of reproductive age, specifically between 15 and 49 years. Descriptive analyses and regressions were applied, and the results reveal a negligible impact of birth order on fertility preferences, while a positive and statistically significant effect of sibling size on these preferences is revealed. This study enhances our understanding of fertility determinants in Madagascar by highlighting the significant role of the family of origin, particularly the size of the sibling group, in fertility preferences.