Orientador: Paulo José dos Reis Pereira / Resumo: A literatura acadêmica sobre “criminalidade organizada transnacional” tem uma ampla e crescente produção na área de Relações Internacionais, enquanto a dimensão transnacional do crime, que tal literatura leva no nome, ainda não ultrapassou as epistemologias analíticas tradicionais do campo da Segurança Internacional, muitas vezes presas a um aporte “Estadocêntrico” do território para analisar a suposta transnacionalidade do crime. O objetivo da pesquisa é criticar essa literatura e introduzir uma abordagem alternativa capaz de analisar o crime e sua dimensão transnacional. Tal abordagem irá focalizar os ordenamentos, os conjuntos, de relações entre atores, e o foco será em como tais relações constroem uma dimensão transnacional para análise do crime, e como o “local” é expressão dessa transnacionalidade. Criticada as abordagens tradicionais de “crime organizado transnacional”, o entendimento de mercados ilícitos transnacionais servirá como suporte para entender essa abordagem alternativa e a dimensão transnacional, pois os mercados ilícitos focalizam em diferentes atores e suas formas de relação para manter uma estrutura mercadológica e de fluxos ilícitos funcionando. Empiricamente, o grupo central dessa análise é o mexicano Los Zetas, e seu papel na Guatemala, a partir de 2008 até 2015, para explicar que o grupo faz parte de um mercado ilícito transnacional, e que a partir de suas relações, também formam uma dimensão transnacional, e partes da Guatemala são expressões das di... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: The academic literature about “transnational organized crime” has a wide and growing production in the International Relations discipline, although the transnational dimension of crime, which said literature takes in its name, still hasn’t trespassed traditional epistemological and analytical perspectives in the International Security field, often stuck to a “Statecentric” approach about territory for the supposed transnationality of crime. The goal of this research is to criticize this literature and introduce an alternative approach capable of analysing crime and its transnational dimension. This new approach will focus on orderings, collectives, of relations between actors, and how these relations build up a dimension of their own, to analyse crime and their transnational flows, and how the “local” is an expression of this transnationality. After criticizing the traditional approaches of “transnational organized crime”, the knowledge of “transnational illicit markets” will serve as a support to understand this alternative approach and the transnational dimension, because these illicit markets focus on different actors and their relations to maintain a market structure of flows working on. Empirically, the central group of this analysis is the Mexican Los Zetas, and its role in Guatemala, from 2008 until 2015, to explain that the group was part of a transnational illicit market, and through their relations, also made up a transnational dimension, and portions of Guatemalan ... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Resumen: La literatura académica sobre “crimen organizado transnacional” tiene una amplia y creciente producción en el área de Relaciones Internacionales, en cuanto la dimensión transnacional del crimen, que tal literatura lleva en su nombre, todavía no ultrapasó las epistemologías analíticas tradicionales del campo de Seguridad Internacional, muchas veces focalizadas a un aporte “Estadocéntrico” del territorio para analizar la supuesta transnacionalidad del crimen. El objetivo de la investigación es criticar estas literaturas e introducir un nuevo abordaje capaz de analizar el crimen y su dimensión transnacional. Tal abordaje irá focalizar los ordenamientos, los colectivos de relaciones entre actores, y su foco será en como tales relaciones construyen una dimensión transnacional propria para el análisis del crimen y sus flujos transnacionales, y como el “local” es una expresión de las dinámicas transnacionales. Criticados los abordajes tradicionales del “crimen organizado transnacional”, la comprensión de mercados ilícitos transnacionales servirá como soporte para comprender ese abordaje alternativo y la dimensión transnacional, porque los mercados ilícitos transnacionales focalizan diferentes actores y sus formas de relación para mantener funcionando una estructura mercadológica de flujos transnacionales. Empíricamente, el grupo central de este análisis es lo mexicano Los Zetas, y su papel en Guatemala, a partir de 2008 hasta 2015, para explicar que el grupo hace parte de un mercado... (Resumen completo clicar acceso eletrônico abajo) / Mestre

La relazione tra traffico di cocaina e violenza ha attratto l’attenzione di molti ricercatori negli ultimi tre decenni; nonostante questo, il ruolo in questa relazione delle fluttuazioni del valore mercato illecito hanno ricevuto finora poca attenzione. Questo studio produce una stima della fluttuazione del valore del mercato della cocaina in 151 paesi nel periodo 1998-2013 adottando un originale approccio che considera sia la dimensione dei flussi di cocaina sia il network dei paesi trafficanti. I risultati di questa stima sono poi utilizzati per esplorare la relazione tra fluttuazioni nel valore del mercato della cocaina e il livello di violenza in un set di 63 paesi. Le analisi dimostrano che le variazioni nel valore del mercato influenzano il livello di violenza in un paese. Infine, sfruttando un nuovo metodo di stima dell’intensità della lotta al traffico di cocaina, lo studio mostra come l’intensificarsi del contrasto al narcotraffico possa, paradossalmente, generare delle spirali di violenza. / Many scholars have investigated the escalation of violence associated with drug trafficking. Despite the plethora of literature, limited attention has been paid to the consequences of fluctuations in the value of markets. This study addresses this lacuna in extant research by proposing an original estimate of the gross value added of cocaine markets in 151 countries between the period 1998-2013, taking into consideration both national and international dimensions of cocaine trafficking through recourse to a flow/network approach. In conjunction with this, the fluctuation of the gross value added of the cocaine market is examined in terms of an etiological factor in the upsurge of interpersonal lethal violence. The analysis demonstrates how expansions and contractions of the gross value added in cocaine markets are significant determinants of the level of violence within the respective countries that constitute the global cocaine network. Finally, through mobilising innovative methods for estimating drug law enforcement actions, the study problematizes extant methods for disrupting drug trafficking on the basis that they may, paradoxically, engender cycles of violence.

Au cours de la dernière décennie, les marchés illicites en ligne sont passés de niches de marchés à plateformes économiques à part entière. L’un des aspects de cette expansion semble reposer dans l’abandon de l’articulation traditionnelle de la relation de confiance entre vendeurs et acheteurs pour l’adoption de transactions régies par les principes d’atomisation sociale et d’anonymat. Se situant au cœur d’une sociologie économique des marchés illicites encore émergente, cette thèse cherche donc à étudier l’élaboration de la confiance au sein des marchés de drogues illicites en ligne. En m’appuyant sur la notion d’institutions en tant que constructions sociales, j'avance la thèse selon laquelle ces marchés illicites modernisent les modalités de transaction des marchés licites traditionnels : des contrats sont proposés ; des tribunaux sont érigés; la sanction est formalisée ; et la gouvernance est transformée. Cette approche permet de révéler un schisme fondamental de la littérature et de ses postulats à l’égard de l'ordre social régnant au sein des marchés illicites en ligne -- rupture qui s’exprime notamment par l’opposition entre 1) une conception de ces marchés comme socialement atomisés et régis uniquement par la réputation ; et 2) l’idée selon laquelle les serveurs restent sous le contrôle des administrateurs. Afin de pallier cette discordance, je propose un modèle d’élaboration de la confiance notamment issu des approches cognitives et comportementales. Premièrement, je soutiens qu'un ensemble de mécanismes actifs de renforcement remplace fonctionnellement les principes sociaux traditionnels de la confiance. Deuxièmement, je soutiens que la confiance, aussi bien interpersonnelle qu’abstraite (à savoir, la confiance accordée aux institutions), est principalement produite selon un processus bayésien d'accumulation d'expériences. Dans cette perspective, l'article « Uncertainty and Risk » examine l'ensemble des mécanismes actifs de renforcement de la confiance -- première composante de ce modèle -- et révèle que les vendeurs ajustent les prix non seulement en fonction de la réputation, mais également des contrats et du statut. Dans les articles suivants, le processus bayésien d'accumulation d'expériences -- deuxième partie du modèle -- est abordé. L’étude menée dans l‘article « Building a case for trust » met ainsi en lumière une association entre les échanges répétés avec le vendeur et une tendance à effectuer des transactions de plus en plus importantes. Le troisième article (« A change of expectations? »), quant à lui, met en exergue le fait qu’un faible nombre d’expériences satisfaisantes suffit à augmenter la certitude de l’acheteur quant à la qualité du produit illicite. Dans leur ensemble, ces deux articles soutiennent l’idée selon laquelle le processus d'accumulation d'expériences favorise la coopération et les attentes. Enfin, ce travail s’achève par l’articulation des deux composantes de ce modèle et, de manière plus générale, par l’articulation de la thèse de la modernisation et d’une conception de la confiance dont l’élaboration repose sur un processus d’accumulation d’expériences sociales. L’apport unique d'une sociologie économique dans l’étude criminologique des marchés illicites est notamment souligné et des pistes de recherches futures sont discutées. / During the last decade illicit online drug markets have grown from niche markets into full-fledged platform economies. It seems that over the course of a few years, sellers and buyers have left the social bases of trust behind preferring to exchange under conditions of social atomization and anonymity. Situated in an emerging economic sociological approach to illicit markets, this work examines the production of trust in illicit online drug markets. Drawing on economic sociology, namely, the notion of institutions as social constructions, I advance the thesis that these markets modernize the premodern exchange modes of traditional illicit markets: Contracts are implemented; courts are erected; sanctions are formalized; and governance transforms. This analysis reveals a fundamental schism in the literature and its assumptions about the social order of illicit online markets. Specifically, a conception of these markets as socially atomized and governed only by reputation, versus the recognition that servers remain under the control of administrators. Building off the modernization thesis and the schism, I propose a model for the production of trust that is sensitive to both cognitive and behavioral approaches to trust. First, I propose that a set of active trust producing mechanisms functionally replace the bases of trust that have eroded as illicit markets move online. Second, I argue that trust is primarily produced through a Bayesian process of accumulating experience, which produces both interpersonal and abstract trust. In the article Uncertainty and Risk I examine the first component, the active production of trust. I revisit a key debate in the literature, the pricing of illicit goods. We find that sellers set prices adjust prices not only with respect to reputation, but also contracts and status. In the following two articles, I examine the second part of the model, the bayesian process of experience accumulation. In the article Building a Case for Trust, I find that repeated exchanges with a seller are associated with a propensity towards larger transactions. In the third article, A Change of Expectations?, I find that even a few experiences increases expectations in the performance of the market institution. Thus, the two articles provide evidence that the process of experience accumulation promotes cooperation and expectation. I conclude the work by reconciling a tension between the two components of the model, the proposition that markets are modernized, but that trust is produced primarily through a process of experience accumulation. On this basis, I continue to highlight the contributions and analytical advantages of the economic sociological approach to illicit markets.

Suite aux travaux de Blumstein et ses collègues (1986), le paradigme des carrières criminelles est devenu un sujet d'importance dans la criminologie. Parmi les dimensions originales du paradigme, il n’est pas question de la performance criminelle. Ce concept permet de comprendre quel individu performe et dans quel contexte (Ouellet & Tremblay, 2014). Ceci puisque la performance qui est principalement basée sur l’appât du gain qui varie en fonction des objectifs criminogènes (Mccarthy & Hagan, 2001; Ouellet et al., 2020). Bien que des chercheurs en criminologie aient exploré son volet objectif, tel que le revenu criminel ( voir : McCarthy & Hagan, 2001; Morselli & Tremblay, 2004; Nguyen & Bouchard, 2013; Ouellet & Tremblay, 2014; Robitaille, 2004; Tremblay & Morselli, 2000; Uggen & Thompson, 2003) et l'impunité (voir : Loughran et al., 2009; Ouellet & Bouchard, 2017), le volet subjectif de la performance comprenant la réputation, le prestige ou le sentiment d’auto-efficacité a été largement sous-étudié en criminologie, et cela est encore plus vrai lorsqu'il s'agit de la population des cyberdélinquants. La littérature a longtemps utilisé les capitaux criminels pour tenter de prédire la performance des criminels. Toutefois, une revue de la littérature scientifique révèle un manque d'utilisation de modèles quantitatifs basés sur les capitaux criminels pour prédire la performance criminelle subjective. La présente étude se distingue en utilisant des données longitudinales quotidiennes provenant du plus grand forum de pirates informatiques en ligne, Hackforums.net (HF). Elle explore deux mesures de performance criminelle, à savoir la performance perçue par les pairs (réputation) et celle perçue par les administrateurs (prestige), ce qui permet d'apporter des nuances à l'analyse de la performance criminelle au sein des réseaux en ligne. Ce faisant, elle répond à l'objectif principal de l'étude : mesurer et comprendre la performance criminelle chez les participants de HF. Les résultats de cette étude révèlent la capacité distinctive des capitaux criminels à prédire les indicateurs de performance criminelle. De plus, elle souligne l'importance de la subjectivité dans l'acquisition de la performance, avec des critères de distribution de ressources limitées ou rares divergeant entre pairs et administrateurs. Enfin, cette recherche situe HF dans le contexte spécifique des sous-cultures déviantes, en raison de ses critères de performance uniques à cette sphère. / Following the work of Blumstein and his colleagues (1986), the paradigm of criminal careers has become a significant topic in scientific criminology, delving into various dimensions that constitute this paradigm. However, one of the original dimensions of the paradigm does not include criminal performance. This concept helps us understand which individuals excel in criminal activities and in what context (Ouellet & Tremblay, 2014). This is because performance, which is mainly based on the lure of gain, varies according to criminogenic objectives (McCarthy & Hagan, 2001; Ouellet et al., 2020). While researchers in criminology have explored its objective aspect, such as criminal income (see: McCarthy & Hagan, 2001; Morselli & Tremblay, 2004; Nguyen & Bouchard, 2013; Ouellet & Tremblay, 2014; Robitaille, 2004; Tremblay & Morselli, 2000; Uggen & Thompson, 2003) or impunity (see: Loughran et al., 2009; Ouellet & Bouchard, 2017), the subjective aspect of performance, including reputation, prestige, or self-efficacy, has been largely understudied in criminology, especially when it comes to the population of cybercriminals. The literature has long used criminal capital to attempt to predict criminal performance. However, a review of the scientific literature reveals a lack of quantitative models based on criminal capital to predict subjective criminal performance. This present study distinguishes itself by using daily longitudinal data from the largest online hacking forum, Hackforums.net (HF). It explores two measures of criminal performance, namely, performance perceived by peers (reputation) and that perceived by administrators (prestige), thus adding nuance to the analysis of criminal performance within online networks. In doing so, it addresses the main objective of the study: to measure and understand criminal performance among HF participants. The results of this study reveal the distinctive ability of criminal capital to predict indicators of criminal performance. Furthermore, it highlights the importance of subjectivity in acquiring performance, with criteria for the distribution of limited or rare resources differing between peers and administrators. Finally, this research situates HF in the specific context of deviant subcultures, due to its unique performance criteria in this sphere.

Thesis (MA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research study aims to approach illicit market activity, particularly transnational organ-ised crime, from a political-economy point of view. The study of illicit market activity is characterised by various and often ambiguous concepts and approaches. The benefits of a political-economy approach include the provision of an alternative view of the illicit, combin-ing aspects from these various approaches. The study of the Global Political Economy (GPE) examines the relationship between authority, mostly in the form of states, and markets. This thesis looks at the relationship between the state and illicit markets. It does so by using the concept Illicit Global Political Economy (IGPE), which is defined as concerning the social, political and economic arrangements affecting the global systems of illicit production, ex-change and distribution, and the mix of values reflected therein. States, illicit markets and criminal actors are considered here as interdependent and interrelated parts of the IGPE spe-cifically, and the overall GPE. Within this relationship several „roles‟ of the state are identi-fied: the state as a creator and regulator of the illicit, through its legislative and executive au-thorities; the state as a locale of the illicit, as home, host, transhipment or service state for transnational criminal activities; the state as a victim of the illicit, for example, through the inherent nature of crime denying the state´s jurisdiction over its territory and also through the use of violence or corruption by criminals; and the state as a facilitator for illicit activity, meaning that certain characteristics of states can enable illicit activity. This thesis is primarily concerned with the last role of the state. It is argued that certain characteristics of states, par-ticularly weak and transitional states, enable the state´s exploitation by criminal actors. In the framework provided by Phil Williams (2002) seven of these characteristics are referred to as capacity gaps, which can result in functional holes, possibly enabling illicit activity. The pri-mary research question of this thesis is, consequently: Is the role of the state as a facilitator in the IGPE enabled by the existence of capacity gaps and functional holes? The West African state of Guinea-Bissau has been chosen as a case study for its role as a transhipment state in the global cocaine trade. In the first part of the analytical process of this thesis, the global cocaine trade and its historical development are described and analysed for the social, political and economic arrangements affecting it. This highlights the im-portance of taking into account these arrangements for a full understanding of the illicit. Addi-tionally, an analysis of the political-economy of Guinea-Bissau provides the necessary back-ground for understanding the second part of this thesis´ approach. Here, the state of Guinea-Bissau is examined firstly for the existence of capacity gaps and functional holes. If they are found to exist, whether and how they are being used by cocaine traffickers is examined. It was found that six out of seven capacity gaps exist in Guinea-Bissau, most of which are being used by the cocaine traffickers. The involvement of the military in the drug trade in combina-tion with its apparent extra-judicial standing is found to be of particular importance for the cocaine traffickers. This analysis allows for the research question to be answered positively. Moreover, the thesis can be considered to generally affirm the usefulness of a political-economy approach to analysing the illicit and affirms specifically the usefulness of the con-cept of the IGPE. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsingstudie poog om onwettige markaktiwiteite, spesifiek transnasionale georganiseerde misdaad, uit 'n politiek-ekonomiese standpunt te benader. Die studie van die onwettige word gekarakteriseer deur verskeie en dikwels dubbelsinnige konsepte en benaderings. Die voordele van 'n politiek-ekonomiese benadering sluit die voorsiening van 'n alternatiewe beskouing van die onwettige dus 'n kombinasie van aspekte van die verskillende benaderings. Die studie van Globale Politieke Ekonomie (GPE) fokus op die verhouding tussen gesag, meestal in die vorm van die state en markte. Hierdie tesis fokus op die verhouding tussen die staat en onwettige markte. Dit word gedoen deur gebruik te maak van die konsep Onwettige Globale Politieke Ekonomie (OGPE), wat gedefinieer kan word as die sosiale, politieke en ekonomiese reëlings wat die globale sisteem van onwettige produksie, wisseling en dustribusie affekteer, en die vermenging van waardes wat daardeur gereflekteer word. State, markte en kriminele akteurs word hier beskou as afhanklike en onderliggende dele van die OGPE, spesifiek, en die algehele GPE. Binne hierdie verhouding kan daar verskeie „rolle‟ van die staat geïdentifiseer word: die staat as skepper en reguleerder van die onwettige deur die wetgewende en uitvoerende gesag; die staat as lokaliteit van die onwettige, as tuiste, gasheer, oorskeping of diens staat vir transnasionale georganiseerde misdaadaktiwiteite; die staat as slagoffer van die onwettige, byvoorbeeld deur die inherente natuur van misdaad wat die staat se jurisdiksie oor sy grense ontneem asook deur die gebruik van geweld of korrupsie deur kriminele; en die staat as fasiliteerder vir onwettige aktiwiteite, wat beteken dat sekere eienskappe van die staat onwettige aktiwiteite moontlik maak. Hierdie tesis fokus spesifiek op laasgenoemde rol van die staat. Daar word geargumenteer dat sekere eienskappe van state, meer spesifiek swak en oorgangstate, dit makliker maak vir kriminele akteurs om die staat uit te buit. In die raamwerk wat voorgestel word deur Phil Williams (2002) word daar sewe van hierdie eienskappe geïdentifiseer en verwys na as kapasiteitsopeninge wat funksionele gapings kan veroorsaak, en so onwettinge aktiwiteite moontlik maak. Die primêre navorsingsvraag van hierdie tesis is gevolglik: Word die rol van die staat as fasiliteerder in die OGPE moontlik gemaak deur die teenwoordigheid van kapasiteitsopeninge en funksionele gapings? Die Wes-Afrika staat Guinee-Bissau dien as gevallestudie vir sy rol as oorskeep staat in globale handel in kokaïen. In die eerste gedeelte van die analitiese proses van hierdie tesis, word globale handel in kokaïen en die historiese ontwikkeling daarvan beskryf en geanaliseer vir die sosiale, politieke en ekonomiese reëlings wat ‟n impak daarop het. Dit bring die belangrikheid van die inagneming van hierdie reëlings, indien die onwettige verstaan wil word, na vore. 'n Addisonele analiese van die politieke ekonomie van Guinee-Bissau verskaf die nodige agtergrond- informasie om die tweede gedeelte van hierdie tesis se benadering te verstaan. Hier die staat Guinee-Bissau word eerstens ondersoek vir die teenwoordigheid van kapasiteitsopeninge en funksionele gapings, en tweedens hoe dit gebruik word deur kokaïen smokkelaars. Die studie vind dat ses vanuit die sewe kapasiteitsopeninge wel in Guinee-Bissau voorkom en gebruik word deur smokkelaars. Die wederregtelike rol van die landmag, wat gewoonlik die smokkelaars ondersteun, is vir die smokkelaars baie belangrik. Hierdie analiese laat dit toe dat die navorsingsvraag positief beantwoord word. Verder, in hierdie tesis word die bruikbaarheid van 'n politiek-ekonomiese aanslag tot die onwettige en die spesifieke teoretiese fondasies daarvan bevestig.