Oligopoly behaviour by domestic firms faced with foreign competition in a small open economy is examined in the context of a market for differentiated products. This paper concentrates on the responsiveness of import flows to import price in the context of trade with imperfect competition. The empirical work analyses the behaviour over time of the interaction between domestic industry prices and domestic costs as well as foreign competitors' prices. A structural model is employed for estimation purposes with consumer demand derived from a CES (constant elasticity of substitution) utility function of domestic and foreign composites of goods. Domestic firms are assumed to face Leontief production functions and maximise profit independently subject to their conjectures about the reactions of rivals. Firm behaviour is modelled using conjectural variations to identify market power, distinguishing two models of oligopoly, namely, Cournot and Bertrand conjectural variations. This leads to the econometric specification of pricing, import and budget share equations consistent with oligopolistic equilibrium. The interrelationship between the budget share equations and the price-cost margin provides encompasses either Cournot or Bertrand conjectural variations. The econometric specification is applied to each of the two digit Australian manufacturing industries using quarterly data covering the period from 1984 to 2000. Results of the industrial behaviour indicate that industries that produce consumer products are generally react to price movements The classification of industry 21 to 24 is more proximate to consumer products as compared to higher industrial numbering. The regression results for industry 25 to 28 suggest quantity reactions. This is in line with the nature of the products produce by these industries, which are heavy industrial manufacturing products. / The elasticity with respect to foreign price is distinguished between the "partial" and the "total" effect. The partial elasticity of import demand ranges from .6205 to 4.9497, while the total elasticity of import demand ranges from .6505 to 19.8132. The elasticity of demand ranges from .0191 for Wood and Paper Product manufacturing to 3.4093 for Food, Beverage and Tobacco manufacturing.

Cette thèse explore la transmission des variations du taux de change sur les prix d’exportation et d’importation à un niveau agrégé et désagrégé pour quatre pays développés. Nous utilisons plusieurs méthodes économétriques récentes afin de fournir des mesures robustes sur la transmission du taux change. Notre recherche soutient la présence d’asymétrie dans la transmission des variations du taux de change sur les prix. En outre, nous constatons que le coefficient de transmission est plus élevé lorsqu’on tient compte de cette asymétrie. Par conséquent, la non prise en compte de ces asymétries, si elles existent, pourrait conduire à des résultats trompeurs. Ce résultat a d’importantes implications sur les politiques monétaires. En effet, les décideurs devront faire face à un dilemme lorsqu'ils doivent choisir entre la stabilité des prix et la compétitivité-prix à l'exportation. De plus, dans cette recherche, nous testons si le degré d’ouverture affecte le degré de report du taux de change. Les résultats montrent, que dans la plupart des cas, il n'y a pas de rôle significatif pour le degré d'ouverture / This thesis explores the transmission of exchange rate movements into export and import prices at both the aggregate and the disaggregate level for four advanced countries. We use several up-to-date econometric methods in order to provide robust measures of exchange rate pass-through. The main finding of our research is to provide clear support for the presence of asymmetry in the exchange rate pass-through, i.e. the fact that appreciations and depreciations are pass through prices in a different magnitude. Moreover, we find that, in many cases, the pass-through coefficient is higher when we take into account this asymmetry. Therefore not taking into account potential asymmetries may lead to wrong results in the ERPT estimation. This finding has several important implications for monetary policy. Indeed, policy-makers will face a dilemma as they try to pursue price stability and export competitiveness. Moreover, our research also studies whether the degree of trade openness affects the exchange rate pass-through. The results in this case show that there is no significant role for the degree of trade openness for most cases.

This work has for objective to analyze the relationship among income (external and internal), exports, imports and exchange rate for the states of the northeast, in the period of 1980-2007, or be to show to what extent the volume and the growth of the exports and of the imports they have been influencing the growth of the gross domestic product of the states of the northeast, for that data will be used in dollars real(o index used as deflator it was the Índex Price Producer - PPI American year base 1980). The method to be proceeded is the estimate through logarithmic regression tends for base the model of Thirlwall(1979), that shows that the behavior of the balance of payments of an economy, specifically, of the exports, it can implicate in strong restrictions to the economic growth, because for the author, the differences in the rates of growth of the product among the world savings are not on the side of the offer, as postulated by the classic-neoclassical current, but, on the side of the demand, as postulated by the keynesian current. Being like this, it intends to point the degree of it influences of the variable export in the product, and with that to verify the Law of Thirlwall is valid in the explanation of the behavior of the economy of these states. In that sense, which she could verify it is that the income of the Northeastern states (Y) it presented behavior similar to the one of Brazil in the years 80 and 90, that is, the income of those states is not accompanying the growth of the external income (Y *), in spite of the exports they have grown more than the imports, and through this fact it can be observed the low rates of growths along the period. Finally, the results show although the exchange rate is not a significant endogenous variable to explain the exports of those states, during the observed period, indicating that they have changed their production structures, independently, from changes in exchange rate. / Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Alagoas / Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar a relação entre renda (externa e interna), exportações, importações e taxa de câmbio para os estados do Nordeste, no período de 1980- 2007, ou seja, mostrar até que ponto o volume e o crescimento das exportações e das importações têm influenciado o crescimento do produto interno bruto dos estados do Nordeste, para isso serão utilizados dados em dólares reais(o índice utilizado como deflator foi o Index Price Producer - PPI americano ano base 1980). O método a ser seguido é a estimação via regressão logarítmica tendo por base o modelo de Thirlwall(1979), que mostra que o comportamento do balanço de pagamentos de uma economia, especificamente, das exportações, pode implicar em fortes restrições ao crescimento econômico, pois para o autor, as diferenças nas taxas de crescimento do produto entre as economias mundiais não estão no lado da oferta, como postulado pelas correntes clássico-neoclássicas, e sim, no lado da demanda, como postulado pela corrente keynesiana. Sendo assim, pretende-se apontar o grau de influencia da variável exportação no produto, e com isso verificar se a Lei de Thirlwall é válida na explicação do comportamento da economia destes estados. Nesse sentido, o que se pôde constatar é que a renda dos estados nordestinos(Y) apresentou comportamento parecido com o do Brasil nos anos 80 e 90, isto é, a renda desses estados não vem acompanhando o crescimento da renda externa (Y*), apesar de as exportações terem crescido mais que as importações, e através deste fato pode-se observar as baixas taxas de crescimentos ao longo do período. Por fim, os resultados mostram ainda que a taxa de câmbio não é uma variável endógena significativa para explicar as exportações desses estados, durante o período observado, indicando que as mesmas sofreram mudanças em suas estruturas produtivas, independentemente, das variações na taxa de câmbio.

This study investigated the impact of import prices on inflation in Namibia, using quarterly time series data over the period 1998Q2-2017Q4. The variables used in the study are inflation rate, M2, real GDP and import prices. The study found that all the variables are integrated of order one (1), and upon testing for cointegration using Johansen test, there was no cointegration. Therefore, the model was analysed using ordinary least squares (OLS) techniques of vector autoregression (VAR) approach, granger causality test and the impulse response function. The results of the study revealed that import prices granger causes inflation at 1% level of significance. Inflation is also granger caused by real GDP and broad money supply (M2) does not Granger cause inflation. The study further revealed that the shocks to import prices are significant in explaining variation in inflation both in the short run and in the long term. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)