Thesis (MScEng (Industrial Engineering))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH SUMMARY: The research documents the development of a conceptual framework, the improbable circumstances strategic (ICS) framework, which guides organisations in the preparation for improbable circumstances. Four fields include: strategic management, innovation, systems thinking and complexity theories (black swans). The black swan principle was introduced with its applicability to the 2008 economic crisis. The black swan is an event which is retrospective in its predictability, highly improbable and carries extreme impact. There are various principles to cope with black swans which will now play a role in strategic management. Strategic management is studied from a systems thinking perspective which is a school of thought that strategy is a process which an organisation should follow from analysis, synthesis, implementation through to the operation phase. Some tools applicable to the analysis and synthesis phases were studied to give a greater understanding of the current field of strategic management. Innovation is an underlying principle which supports the strategic process. Innovation is a field which is currently not playing a large role in the strategy process. The principles of the innovation life cycle, innovation management and open innovation were studied to support the framework as well as create awareness around the advantages thereof within the field strategy. The dissertation uses aspects of these four fields to form the ICS framework. The framework consists of four phases: the analysis phase; the improbable event creation phase; the fragility analysis phase; and the synthesis phase. The first three phases run parallel with the current analysis phase of strategic management as the ICS framework is not designed to replace the strategic management process, but to add to it. The synthesis phase is where the design of the strategic plan for improbable circumstances takes place. Each phase sets out the inputs, requirements and deliverables needed for the successful implementation of the framework. Some tools for each of the phases are given, but they are given merely as a guideline as different organisations have the infrastructure for different tools. The framework is partially validated by being able to apply various tools to each phase, but the framework’s place in the field of strategy should be validated. The validation is done through interviews with eight industry experts in the four fields of study discussed. The results show a positive response with a call for future study through implementation, a tracking of the framework through this implementation and critical factors that arise from that. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsing beskryf die ontwikkeling van ‘n moontlike raamwerk; die onverwagte omstandigheids strategiese (ICS) raamwerk, wat organisasies met die voorbereiding vir onverwagte gebeure kan help. Vier areas word beskryf wat insluit: strategiese bestuur, innovasie, stelsels denke en kompleksiteitsteorie(swart swane). Die swart swaan beginsel is gebruik weens die toepasbaarheid daarvan op die ekonomiese krisis van 2008. ‘n Swart swaan is ‘n gebeurtenis wat terugwerkend voorspelbaar is, baie onwaarskynlik en ‘n groot impak het. Daar is verskeie beginsels om swart swane te hanteer wat vorentoe ‘n rol in strategiese bestuur kan speel. Strategiese bestuur word vanuit ‘n stelsels denke oogpunt bekyk wat strategie as die proses sien wat ‘n organisasie moet volg van analises, saamvoeging en implimentering tot die bedryfsfase. Sommige tegnieke wat op analises en sintese gerig is, is ondersoek om ‘n groter begrip van strategiese bestuur te gee. Innovasie is die onderliggende beginsel wat die strategiese proses ondersteun. Innovasie speel tans nie ‘n noemenswaardige rol in die strategie proses nie. Beginsels van die innovasie siklus, innovasiebestuur en oop innovasie is ondersoek om die raamwerk te ondersteun asook om ‘n bewuswording van die voordele daarvan in strategie uit te wys. Hierdie verhandeling bespreek vier fases van die ICS raamwerk: analises; die onverwagte gebeurtenis skepping; kwesbaarheids analises; en sintese fases. Die eerste drie fases word parallel met die bestaande analitiese fases van strategie bestuur as die ICS raamwerk gedoen en is nie ontwerp om die strategie bestuurs proses te vervang nie, maar om daartoe by te dra. Gedurende die sintese fase word die ontwerp van die strategiese plan vir onverwagte gebeure gedoen. Elke fase beskryf die toevoer, benodigdhede en aflewerbares nodig vir die suksesvolle implimentering van die raamwerk. Sommige hulpmiddels vir elk van die fases word gegee, maar slegs as ‘n riglyn want verskillende organisasies het die infrastruktuur vir verskillende hulpmiddels. Die raaamwerk word deels gekontroleer deur dat dit moontlik is om verskeie hulpmiddels op elke fase toe te pas, maar die plek van die raamwerk in die area van strategie moet gekontroleer word. Kontrole is gedoen deur dit met agt industrie kenners in die vier studie velde te bespreek. Die resultate toon ‘n positiewe reaksie vir toekomstige navorsing deur implimentering en die navolg van die raamwerk deur hierdie implimentering en die kritiese faktore wat daaruit mag voorvloei te doen.