Recentemente, importantes questionamentos emergiram na literatura sobre repasse cambial. Mais especificamente, foi dada crescente atenção à hipótese de Taylor (2000) de que o pass-through se reduziu em diversos países como conseqüência do ambiente de inflação mais baixa. Esta dissertação investiga o tema através da aplicação de painéis dinâmicos para um conjunto de economias desenvolvidas. Deste modo, são estimados modelos de efeito fixo e Arellano-Bond em janelas fixas (rolling windows), que apontam para uma redução substancial na transmissão do câmbio para a inflação. A análise de potenciais determinantes macroeconômicos dessa queda indica que o ambiente inflacionário foi o principal elemento por trás do fato, sobretudo nos anos oitenta e noventa, em que o processo de desinflação foi mais intenso. Por outro lado, os anos dois mil apresentam um coeficiente de pass-through bastante baixo e estável, visto que o cenário de inflação baixa já estava consolidado para o conjunto de economias analisadas. / Recently, economists have become more interested in studying exchange rate pass-through. More specifically, increasing attention has been given to Taylors (2000) hypothesis that the passthrough has declined in several countries as a result of a lower inflation environment. This dissertation examines this issue through the application of dynamic panels for a number of developed economies. Panel data models are estimated here using fixed effects and Arellano- Bond estimators in rolling windows. The results point to a substantial reduction in the transmission of exchange rate to inflation. The analysis of potential macroeconomic determinants of this decline indicates that the inflationary environment was the main factor behind this fact, mainly in the eighties and nineties when the disinflation process was more intense worldwide. On the other hand, in the first decade of this century the pass-through coefficient was fairly low and stable, perhaps because the scenario of low inflation was already a longstanding reality to the economies analyzed in the present study.

In this thesis, I investigate economic and policy implications of corporate debt financing. In the first chapter, I examine whether or not leverage has a negative effect on corporate investment due to a debt overhang problem. Existing empirical studies face a challenging endogeneity problem inherent in the investment-leverage relationship, the source of which is the firm's anticipation of its growth opportunities. I develop a novel approach to control for this problem by using analysts' earnings forecasts as an anticipation measure. I show that anticipations influence the investment-leverage relationship in that firms that do anticipate future growth opportunities suffer less from debt overhang. In the second chapter, I extend Chapter One's analysis to a dynamic setting. I first establish that there is a stable long-term relationship between investment and leverage, and then disentangle the short-term dynamics of leverage and investment and find that the deviation of leverage from its benchmark path has a negative impact on the change in investment. I also employ dynamic panel models to estimate the causal dynamic effects of leverage on investment. The estimations show that the impact is negative for recent leverage, but positive for leverage in the more distant past. Also, the effects of leverage are attenuated when the investment uncertainties are further controlled. This suggests that the firm's response to investment uncertainties might explain dynamic effects of leverage on investment. In Chapter Three, I investigate the effects of the U.S. Chapter 11 bankruptcy-reorganization law on firm operating performance, and adopt matching methods to account for self-selection and heterogeneity in firms' pre-filing characteristics. Matching methods entail the selection of a control group of non-bankrupt firms that are comparable to Chapter 11 filing firms in a wide range of pre-filing characteristics that affect filing decisions. Comparing the operating performances of the two groups, I find that filing firms' net cash flows, but not operating incomes, improve significantly during bankruptcy. Furthermore, firms reduce their leverage levels and incur lower interest expenses after bankruptcy. The results suggest that the reduction in interest expenses contributes to the improvement in firms' net cash flows during bankruptcy.

In this thesis, I investigate economic and policy implications of corporate debt financing. In the first chapter, I examine whether or not leverage has a negative effect on corporate investment due to a debt overhang problem. Existing empirical studies face a challenging endogeneity problem inherent in the investment-leverage relationship, the source of which is the firm's anticipation of its growth opportunities. I develop a novel approach to control for this problem by using analysts' earnings forecasts as an anticipation measure. I show that anticipations influence the investment-leverage relationship in that firms that do anticipate future growth opportunities suffer less from debt overhang. In the second chapter, I extend Chapter One's analysis to a dynamic setting. I first establish that there is a stable long-term relationship between investment and leverage, and then disentangle the short-term dynamics of leverage and investment and find that the deviation of leverage from its benchmark path has a negative impact on the change in investment. I also employ dynamic panel models to estimate the causal dynamic effects of leverage on investment. The estimations show that the impact is negative for recent leverage, but positive for leverage in the more distant past. Also, the effects of leverage are attenuated when the investment uncertainties are further controlled. This suggests that the firm's response to investment uncertainties might explain dynamic effects of leverage on investment. In Chapter Three, I investigate the effects of the U.S. Chapter 11 bankruptcy-reorganization law on firm operating performance, and adopt matching methods to account for self-selection and heterogeneity in firms' pre-filing characteristics. Matching methods entail the selection of a control group of non-bankrupt firms that are comparable to Chapter 11 filing firms in a wide range of pre-filing characteristics that affect filing decisions. Comparing the operating performances of the two groups, I find that filing firms' net cash flows, but not operating incomes, improve significantly during bankruptcy. Furthermore, firms reduce their leverage levels and incur lower interest expenses after bankruptcy. The results suggest that the reduction in interest expenses contributes to the improvement in firms' net cash flows during bankruptcy.

Recentemente, importantes questionamentos emergiram na literatura sobre repasse cambial. Mais especificamente, foi dada crescente atenção à hipótese de Taylor (2000) de que o pass-through se reduziu em diversos países como conseqüência do ambiente de inflação mais baixa. Esta dissertação investiga o tema através da aplicação de painéis dinâmicos para um conjunto de economias desenvolvidas. Deste modo, são estimados modelos de efeito fixo e Arellano-Bond em janelas fixas (rolling windows), que apontam para uma redução substancial na transmissão do câmbio para a inflação. A análise de potenciais determinantes macroeconômicos dessa queda indica que o ambiente inflacionário foi o principal elemento por trás do fato, sobretudo nos anos oitenta e noventa, em que o processo de desinflação foi mais intenso. Por outro lado, os anos dois mil apresentam um coeficiente de pass-through bastante baixo e estável, visto que o cenário de inflação baixa já estava consolidado para o conjunto de economias analisadas. / Recently, economists have become more interested in studying exchange rate pass-through. More specifically, increasing attention has been given to Taylors (2000) hypothesis that the passthrough has declined in several countries as a result of a lower inflation environment. This dissertation examines this issue through the application of dynamic panels for a number of developed economies. Panel data models are estimated here using fixed effects and Arellano- Bond estimators in rolling windows. The results point to a substantial reduction in the transmission of exchange rate to inflation. The analysis of potential macroeconomic determinants of this decline indicates that the inflationary environment was the main factor behind this fact, mainly in the eighties and nineties when the disinflation process was more intense worldwide. On the other hand, in the first decade of this century the pass-through coefficient was fairly low and stable, perhaps because the scenario of low inflation was already a longstanding reality to the economies analyzed in the present study.

<p>Osnovni cilj istraživanja predstavlja identifikovanje faktora<br />koji utiču na uspešnost poslovanja proizvodnih preduzeća, i to<br />korišćenjem metodologije iz oblasti analize panel podataka.<br />Kao mera uspešnosti poslovanja korišćena je profitabilnost.<br />Istraživanjem je obuhvaćena analiza uticaja nekoliko internih i<br />eksternih faktora. Utvrđen je značajan uticaj kako internih<br />(veličina preduzeća, finansijska zaduženost, efikasnost<br />korišćenja imovine i stopa opipljivosti imovine) tako i<br />eksternih (inflacija, BDP i kamatne stope) faktora na<br />uspešnost poslovanja proizvodnih preduzeća.</p> / <p>The main goal of this research is identifying factors that have an impact on<br />business success of the manufacturing companies, by using the<br />methodology of panel models analysis. Profitability is used as a measure of<br />business success. Research involves analysis of several internal and<br />external factors.<br />Significant influence of several internal (size, financial leverage, efficiency of<br />assets usage and tangibility of assets) and external factors (inflation, GDP<br />and interest rates) on business success of manufacturing companies has<br />been identified.</p>

The focus is on cross-sectional dependence in panel trade flow models. We propose alternative specifications for modeling time invariant factors such as socio-cultural indicator variables, e.g., common language and currency. These are typically treated as a source of heterogeneity eliminated using fixed effects transformations, but we find evidence of cross-sectional dependence after eliminating country-specific and time-specific effects. These findings suggest use of alternative simultaneous dependence model specifications that accommodate cross-sectional dependence, which we set forth along with Bayesian estimation methods. Ignoring cross-sectional dependence implies biased estimates from panel trade flow models that rely on fixed effects. / Series: Working Papers in Regional Science

The focus is on cross-sectional dependence in panel trade flow models. We propose alternative specifications for modeling time invariant factors such as socio-cultural indicator variables, e.g., common language and currency. These are typically treated as a source of heterogeneity eliminated using fixed effects transformations, but we find evidence of cross-sectional dependence after eliminating country-specific effects. These findings suggest use of alternative simultaneous dependence model specifications that accommodate cross-sectional dependence, which we set forth along with Bayesian estimation methods. Ignoring cross-sectional dependence implies biased estimates from panel trade flow models that rely on fixed effects. / Series: Working Papers in Regional Science

The focus is on cross-sectional dependence in panel trade flow models. We propose alternative specifications for modeling time invariant factors such as socio-cultural indicator variables, e.g., common language and currency. These are typically treated as a source of heterogeneity eliminated using fixed effects transformations, but we find evidence of cross-sectional dependence after eliminating country-specific effects. These findings suggest use of alternative simultaneous dependence model specifications that accommodate cross-sectional dependence, which we set forth along with Bayesian estimation methods. Ignoring cross-sectional dependence implies biased estimates from panel trade flow models that rely on fixed effects. / Series: Working Papers in Regional Science

A compreensão da dinâmica de persistência e evasão da atividade exportadora é fundamental para o desenho de incentivos adequados às firmas estreantes no mercado internacional e encontra respaldo nos modelos da nova teoria do comércio internacional. O propósito deste trabalho é investigar os determinantes do desempenho de firmas industriais brasileiras estreantes no mercado internacional, em termos de probabilidade de sobrevivência e evolução do valor exportado, com especial atenção aos impactos dos instrumentos de apoio Drawback, BNDES Exim e Proex. Para tanto, serão analisadas empresas estreantes no comércio exterior entre os anos de 1998 e 2003, configurando um painel desbalanceado com 8,5 mil firmas. Por meio de análise econométrica para dados em painel e estimação de modelos de duração, verificou-se que a função de sobrevivência e crescimento do valor médio exportado no tempo difere claramente entre firmas que utilizam um dos benefícios e aquelas que não o fazem. Também se pode afirmar que custos irreversíveis de entrada no comércio internacional não sejam desprezíveis entre as firmas industriais analisadas, o que indica que os programas públicos de promoção de exportações devam se concentrar na (i) redução da taxa de abandono das recém-exportadoras e (ii) na minimização dos custos fixos associados aos investimentos para entrada no mercado exportador. / Understanding the dynamics of persistence and evasion of export activity is essential for the design of export promotion for new exporters and international trade policies. Several results point to the importance of taking into account the specific sector of the industry in the implementation of public policies, which is supported by the new models of international trade theory. The purpose of this work is to investigate the determinants of the performance of Brazilian industrial new exporters, with particular attention to the impacts of Drawback, BNDES Exim and Proex. For this, we analyzed firms between the 1998 and 2003, constituting an unbalanced panel with 8500 firms. By panel data analysis and estimation of duration models, we found that the survival function and the growth of exports clearly differs among companies that use one of the programs and those that do not. One can also say that sunk costs are not negligible among the industrial firms analyzed, which indicates that public export promotion should focus on (i) reducing the dropout rate of new exporters and (ii) minimize the fixed sunk costs related with initial investments to begin the export activty.

nÃo hà / Considerando a importÃncia da eficÃcia na gestÃo do OrÃamento PÃblico, objetivou-se verificar o perfil da execuÃÃo orÃamentÃria nas diversas secretarias do governo do Estado do Cearà entre 2008 e 2011, com o intuito de subsidiar os gestores pÃblicos em seu processo de tomada de decisÃo. Dados dos sistemas corporativos da Controladoria e Ouvidoria Geral do Estado, compreendendo os valores autorizados em Lei OrÃamentÃria e empenhados, foram combinados a modelos economÃtricos com dados em painel e quatro diferentes tÃcnicas de estimaÃÃo, para investigar o que se definiu como eficÃcia da execuÃÃo orÃamentÃria de um ÃrgÃo de governo. Os resultados das estimaÃÃes permitem inferir com elevado grau de robustez que: i) a expertise do ÃrgÃo na gestÃo dos recursos determina positivamente a eficÃcia nos exercÃcios subsequentes; ii) o nÃmero de constataÃÃes de auditoria à um obstÃculo à eficÃcia na execuÃÃo dos recursos e iii) a participaÃÃo dos convÃnios nÃo contribui com a elevaÃÃo da eficÃcia na gestÃo dos recursos autorizados Ãs secretarias. Em conjunto, os resultados sugerem que a transferÃncia de tecnologia entre os ÃrgÃos de governo se mostra como a principal estratÃgia a ser seguida pelos gestores pÃblicos estaduais. / Considering the importance of effectiveness management of the public budget, aimed to verify the profile of budget execution in the various departments of the Cearà State Government between 2008 and 2011, in order to subsidize public managers in their decision making process. Data from enterprise systems of the General Comptroller and Ombudsman of Cearà State, including amounts authorized and committed in Budget Law, were combined a econometric models with panel data and four different estimation techniques to investigate what was defined as efficient of budget execution at an organ of government. The estimation results allow us to infer with a high degree of robustness: i) the expertise of the Board in the management of resources positively determines the efficient in subsequent years, ii) the number of audit findings is an obstacle to the efficient enforcement resources and iii) the covenants participation does not contribute to increase the efficient in the management of resources committed to the departments. Together, the results suggest that technology transfer between government bodies shown as the main strategy to be followed by state public managers.