Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Statistics / Gary Gadbury / Researches in the fields in science and statistics often go beyond the two-variable cause-and-effect relationship, and also try to understand what connects the causal relationship and what changes the magnitude or direction of the causal relationship between two variables, predictor(T) and outcome (Y). A mediator (Z) is a third variable that links a cause and an effect, whereby T causes the Z and Z causes Y. In general, a given variable may be said to function as a mediator to the extent that it accounts for the relation between the predictor and the outcome (Baron and Kenny, 1986). The initial question regards the appropriate characterization of a mediation effect. Most studies, when comparing one or more treatments focus on an average mediating effect. This average mediating effect can be misleading when the mediating effects vary from subject to subject in the population. The primary focus of this research is to investigate individual mediating effects in a population, and to define a variance of these individual mediating effects. A concept called subject-mediator (treatment) interaction is presented and its role in evaluating a mediator’s behavior on a population of units is studied. This is done using a framework sometimes called a counterfactual model. Some common experimental designs that provide different knowledge about this interaction term are studied. The subgroup analysis is the most common analytic approach for examining heterogeneity of mediating effects. In mediation analysis, situations can arise where Z and Y cannot both be measured on an individual unit. We refer to such data as terminal measures data. We show a design where a mediating effect cannot be estimated in terminal measures data and another one where it can be, with an assumption. The assumption is linked to the idea of pseudo-replication. These ideas are discussed and a simulation study illustrates the issues involved when analyzing terminal measures data. We know of no methods that are currently available that specifically address terminal measures data.

No description available.

This study examined the link between interparental violence and children's functioning. The goal of the study was to examine an indirect pathway of the effect of interparental violence on children's internalizing and externalizing problems. The data for the study was drawn from The Women and Family Project and included 359 women and one of their children between the ages of 5 and 12-years-old. Sixty-four of these women resided in a battered women's shelter, 100 of these women resided in the community but had a history of interparental violence, and 195 of these women were recruited as a comparison sample. Interparental violence, maternal parenting practices, maternal depression, and children's internalizing and externalizing problems were assessed via interviews with mothers and their children. An indirect pathway hypothesis of the effects of interparental violence which posits that interparental violence leads to maternal depression, maternal depression leads to maternal use of maladaptive parenting practices, and maternal maladaptive parenting practices lead to children's internalizing and externalizing problems was tested using structural equation modeling. This new model of the indirect effects of interparental violence was supported by the results of the structural equation models when tested on the sample as a whole as well as separately for the battered and nonbattered sample. A second indirect pathway, though, was more strongly supported. This second model indicates that interparental violence affects children through maternal depression, which is directly related to children's internalizing and externalizing problems. The results of the present study support the importance of indirect pathways of the effects of interparental violence on children.

The POLDER-1 instrument was able to measure aerosol and cloud properties for eight months in 1996–1997. We use these observational data for aerosol concentration (the aerosol index), cloud optical thickness, and cloud droplet effective radius to establish statistical relationships among these parameters in order to analyze the first and second aerosol indirect effects. We also evaluate the representation of these effects as parameterized in the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique–Zoom (LMDZ) general circulation model. We find a decrease in cloud top droplet radius with increasing aerosol index in both the model and the observations. Our results are only slightly changed if the analysis is done at fixed cloud liquid water path (LWP) instead of considering all LWP conditions. We also find a positive correlation between aerosol index and cloud liquid water path, which is particularly pronounced over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. This may be interpreted as observational evidence for the second aerosol indirect effect on a large scale. The model-simulated relationship agrees well with that derived from POLDER data. Model simulations show a rather small change in the two relationships if preindustrial rather than present-day aerosol distributions are used. However, when entirely switching off the second aerosol indirect effect in our model, we find a much steeper slope than we do when including it.

Parameterisations of fractional cloudiness in large-scale atmospheric models rely on information about the subgrid-scale variablity of the total water specific humidity, qt , provided in form of a probability density function (PDF). In this contribution, four different approaches to evaluate such total-water PDFs are discussed: (i) Satellite spectroradiometers with high spatial resolution allow to construct at the scale of model grid boxes a histogram, and subsequently to derive the moments of the PDF, of the vertical integral of qt . This can be compared to the same quantity diagnosed from the model parameterisation. Although the vertical integral mostly focuses on the boundary layer, and involves issues in grid-boxes with orographic variability, it allowed nevertheless in the example presented to pinpoint deficiencies of a model parameterisation. (ii) Assuming a simple PDF shape and saturation within clouds, the simple “critical relative humidity” metric can be derived from infrared sounders and/or cloud lidar in combination with reanalysis data with a vertical resolution. It allows to evaluate the underlying PDF of any cloud scheme, but is sensitive to the assumptions. (iii) Supersites with a combination of ground-based lidar, radar and microwave data provide high-resolution high-quality reference data. In a “virtual reality” framework, we showed, however, that it is difficult to evaluate higher moments of a spatial PDF with this temporally-varying data. (iv) From a hierarchy of models from general circulation models to direct numerical simulations, we find that the variance of the qt follows a power-law scaling with an exponent of about -2. This information is very useful to improve the parameterisations.

No description available.

Cougars (Puma concolor) have recently begun to reclaim former range and also are expanding into new territory. The Cypress Hills of southeast Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan now hosts the most eastern confirmed breeding population of cougars in Canada. However, with the return of cougars come new issues about human safety and risk of livestock depredation. Using GPS radiocollars, scat analysis, snowtracking and wildlife cameras, I found that the Cypress Hills boasts one of the highest densities of cougars ever reported, yet the large cats avoid human-use areas and have not been documented to prey on livestock. Using aerial ungulate survey data, I also show that the increase in cougar abundance is associated with a shift in distribution of nave ungulate prey to areas outside the park. Provided that cougars continue to avoid humans and cattle, this island habitat could prove to be an important stepping stone to further expansion eastward. / Ecology

The studies described in this thesis investigate the role of indirect effects in invasion biology. The Introduction provides a brief overview of indirect effects and an outline of the thesis structure. The role of indirect effects in the context of invasion biology is addressed in an in-depth published literature review that comprises the second chapter, providing a theoretical background for the subsequent empirical studies. Chapters Three to Six are comprised of manuscripts that have been published or are under review or in press, which describe studies that investigate the importance of indirect effects in invasion biology using a model system consisting of the alien Asteraceae Senecio madagascariensis, a closelyrelated native, Senecio pinnatifolius, and the insect species with which they interact. Senecio madagascariensis and S. pinnatifolius occur in a similar geographic range in eastern Australia and these studies were conducted in mixed and pure populations of the two species. The herbivore and floral visitor assemblages of the two Senecio species at seven field sites in South-east Queensland were compared using sweep-net sampling, manual searching and floral visitor observation techniques. The floral visitor assemblages were similar between the two species, comprised largely of species of Syrphidae and the European honeybee, Apis mellifera. Herbivore assemblages, however, were highly variable both between species and between sites, with greater herbivore abundance and diversity recorded on the native S. pinnatifolius than its alien congener. The most commonly recorded herbivores were sap-sucking species such as Myridae. The magpie moth, Nyctemera amica was the most common folivore on both Senecio species and laboratory studies demonstrated a clear preference by ovipositing females and feeding larvae of this species for the native Senecio species, over the alien. Field surveys supported these findings, recording greater leaf damage on the native species than the invader. Herbivory levels were lower, rather than higher, in mixed populations than in pure populations, thus there was no evidence that the presence of one species enhanced herbivory in the other. Field pollination trials were conducted to determine whether competition for pollinators or facilitation of pollination occurred in mixed Senecio populations. The presence of the native S. pinnatifolius affected pollinator visitation rates to the alien Senecio; bee visits to S. madagascariensis were significantly reduced by the presence of S. pinnatifolius, whilst syrphid visits increased. However, altered visitation rates were not reflected in seed set. The presence of the alien species had no impact on pollinator visits to the native. Surprisingly, S. pinnatifolius seed set was higher in mixed populations than in pure populations. This might be due to abiotic factors, lower rates of herbivory at these sites or transfer of pollen between species resulting in the production of hybrid seed (if S. madagascariensis has greater male fitness). Hybridisation in the field was investigated using AFLP techniques. No mature hybrid plants were recorded in mixed populations, but hybrid seeds were produced by both species. Senecio pinnatifolius maternal parents produced higher numbers of hybrid seed than expected based on the relative frequencies of the two species, whilst hybridisation in S. madagascariensis was lower than expected. This may indicate greater male fitness of the invader. A range of complex indirect interactions can occur between invasive and native species, with these interactions having the potential to influence the success or failure of the invader and its impacts on co-occurring natives. The Discussion addresses the findings of the studies described here in the context of invasion biology theory.

abstract: Novel resource inputs represent an increasingly common phenomenon in ecological systems as global change alters environmental factors and species distributions. In semiarid riparian areas, hydric pioneer tree species are being replaced by drought-tolerant species as water availability decreases. Additionally, introduced omnivorous crayfish, which feed upon primary producers, allochthonous detritus, and benthic invertebrates, can impact communities at multiple levels through both direct and indirect effects. In arid and semiarid systems of the American Southwest, crayfish may be especially important as detrital processors due to the lack of specialized detritivores. I tested the impact of virile crayfish (Orconectes virilis) on benthic invertebrates and detrital resources across a gradient of riparian vegetation drought-tolerance using field cages with leaf litter bags in the San Pedro River in Southeastern Arizona. Virile crayfish increased breakdown rate of drought-tolerant saltcedar (Tamarix ramosissima), but did not impact breakdown of Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii), Gooding's willow (Salix goodingii), or seepwillow (Baccharis salicifolia). The density and composition of the invertebrate community colonizing leaf litter bags were both heavily influenced by litter species but not directly by crayfish presence. As drought-tolerant species become more abundant in riparian zones, their litter will become a larger component of the organic matter budget of desert streams. By increasing breakdown rates of saltcedar, crayfish shift the composition of leaf litter in streams, which in turn may affect the composition and biomass of colonizing invertebrate communities. More research is needed to determine the full extent to which these alterations change community composition over time. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.S. Biology 2012

Two congeneric damselfly species, Enallagma traviatum and E. aspersum, dominate the littoral macroinvertebrates of Bays Mountain Lake and of the adjacent fish-free Ecology Pond, respectively (northeastern Tennessee, USA). Extending previous experimental studies, we test seven hypotheses concerning the role of fish (bluegill sunfish, Lepomis macrochirus) and larvaldragonfly (Anax junius) predation, competitive effects on damselflies, and the interaction between competition and predation, in determining invertebrate dominance in these communities. Three types of experiments were conducted: an enclosure experiment within Ecology Pond, an outdoor replicated tub experiment, and a laboratory behavior experiment. The in-situ enclosure experiment showed that E. traviatum larvae were more susceptible to Anax predation than were E. aspersum larvae; a tendency toward greater vulnerability to fish of E. aspersum compared with E. traviatum was not statistically significant. The outdoor tub experiment confirmed both of these trends with statistically significant results. In the tubs, both predators inhibited feeding of both zygopterans (as indicated by reduced fecal mass), particularly for E. aspersum in the presence of fish. This effect appears to have been primarily indirect, mediated through exploitation of the zooplankton. We also detected competitive effects of E. traviatum on E. aspersum: E. traviatum reduced the emergence and increased the exposure above the substrate of E. aspersum. In the absence of predators, E. traviatum inhibited feeding of E. aspersum via interference. In the laboratory behavior experiment, predators inhibited crawling by E. aspersum. E. aspersum was more exposed than was E. traviatum; it swam and crawled more than did E. traviatum, considerably increasing these movements at night. Over all, E. traviatum consistently appeared to be the more cryptic of the two species, and E. aspersum appeared to be much more active. Our results suggest an explanation for the clear difference in structure between communities like Bays Mountain Lake and Ecology Pond: predaceous fish eliminate large invertebrate predators and shift the community toward cryptic forms at relatively low densities, reflecting the effects of both predation and exploitation competition. In the absence of fish, large invertebrate predators are less able to deplete littoral invertebrates but may favor the more active forms, perhaps because these are better able to avoid invertebrate predators.