本文引用Pagan and Sossounovb（2003）針對Bry and Boschan（1971）景氣循環周期判定法修改後的法則，判定大盤與類股指數的牛市、熊市周期。將判定的周期結果畫成圖表，藉由簡單的圖表分析將可明確得知大盤周期與類股周期領先與落後的關係，並應用計量模型估計，找尋能夠顯著預測大盤周期變動方向的類股，或是檢驗大盤周期是否能夠預測類股周期方向；反之亦然。並且比較圖表分析與計量模型估計結果是否一致。 圖表分析與向量自我迴歸模型的實證結果一致，八大類股中，營建、金融、機電、塑化等四類股周期能夠顯著預測大盤周期走勢，其中以塑化類股最具預測能力；而大盤周期皆無法精準預測類股周期走勢。而羅吉斯迴歸模型結果也發現，營建、金融、機電、塑化等四類股周期能夠增加大盤周期走勢的預測機率；同樣的，大盤周期無法影響類股周期走勢的預測機率。

Development of the economic situation in recent years raises number of issues, including defining what are the factors of this development and whether it is possible to affect them. This thesis deals with the demographic factors of economic growth; those are factors associated with general population and factors which may have an impact on the country's economy. The main aim of this work is to precisely identify the demographic factor and analyze their development in the Czech Republic since the early 1990s to the present days. Furthermore, the economic development is analyzed along with the indicators of economic activity in sorting by various demographic factors. Special attention is given to the status of working foreigners within the labor market. To emphasize the specifics of the development of the various sectors of national economy the construction industry was selected as a case example. The analysis of the employment in the construction industry was conducted in regard to demographic and economic indicators. To illustrate the results of the analysis column, line and pie charts were used in addition to the figures in the tables.