High inflation economies, especially the Latin American cases like Argentina and Brazil, have ultimately been successful in stabilising their prices using the exchange rate as a nominal anchor. Contrary to conventional wisdom inflation in these cases has not been reduced at the cost of temporary recessions, instead, they have shown positive output effects. Various theoretical explanations of such boom-cycles are discussed and a model generating such an outcome is developed. Some empirical evidence is given by the Brazilian "Real Plan" of 1994. Nevertheless, the medium and long-term effects of such programmes can result in recessions and a resumption of high inflation, although the cases show that such "postponed stabilisation costs" can be overcome by adequate and flexible supply-side policies accompanying the stabilisation programme. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

There is a paucity of research juxtaposing parental education level and teacher emotional support in a single study which examines their relative impacts on students’ academic achievements. Therefore, the first objective of this dissertation is to study the influence of parental education level, in comparison to the influence of teacher emotional support, on students’ math performance, by using more representative data and a rigorous statistical method. The second objective is to identify and examine how some important psychological traits (both affective and cognitive) mediate the effects of social factors on students’ math performance. The third objective is to examine whether those relationships are moderated by gender. Hong Kong’s survey data is extracted from the Program of International Students Assessment (2003) as organized by Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), on the math performances of 4,478 students at the age of fifteen. Measurement invariance was first tested, and then followed by Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Two structural models were tested by Structural Equation Modeling using Linear Structural Relations (LISREL) 8.5 which is computer software for SEM. Results indicated that first, parental education level affects children’s math scores by providing home education resources and enhancing children’s math self-efficacy, and second the Self Determination Theory is applicable in supporting the hypothesis that teachers affects their students’ math scores by providing a cooperative learning environment, which in turn, enhances students’ affective and cognitive factors. Three important mediators, namely cooperative learning environment, math self-efficacy, and home education resources are concluded as significant mediating factors upon the effects of parents and teachers on students’ math performance. The perceived support from parents and teachers are not significantly different across gender in Hong Kong. This is consistent with recent studies that differences favoring males in mathematics achievement are disappearing. Theoretical contributions and practical implications are discussed in the final part of the dissertation.

Dans cette Thèse, trois cas pratiques sont étudiées dans le domaine de la gestion des fonds où les risques d’investissement semblent mal perçus du fait d’ambiguïtés dans la mesure de risque. Ces ambiguïtés sont analysées comme une erreur élémentaire où une trop forte simplification de la réalité qui peut aboutir à une approche confuse. Les trois études sont développées dans un contexte usuel d’investissement, et portent sur les actions pour la première, sur les obligations pour la seconde et sur les devises pour la troisième. Elles s’inscrivent dans les conventions traditionnelles de la théorie de la finance. Les trois études, qui font l’objet de chapitres distincts, montrent comment la perception de risque peut être troublée dès les premiers traitements des données financières et avant même une éventuelle évaluation des risques. Plusieurs mesures de risque, pourtant courantes dans la finance, apparaissent réductrices ou mal adaptées aux circonstances dans lesquelles elles sont utilisées. Nous décrivons comment, dans certains cas, des mauvaises décisions d’investissement peuvent être prises du fait d’erreur de mesure, ou comment dans d’autres cas le débat dans la littérature économique a été orienté vers de mauvaises directions. Les études soulignent que l’appréciation des risques financiers est loin d’être triviale, même dans les domaines habituellement considérés comme maîtrisés. Une approche systématique a été adoptée pour établir à quel moment précis les analyses intègrent une mauvaise perception du risque. / Three situations are studied in the field of fund management where investment risk may be misperceived due to an ambiguity in the way risk is being measured. The case studies involve equity, bonds and currencies respectively, and are inscribed in the traditional conventions of finance theory. It is shown how the perception of risk can fail immediately in the initial data processing stage even before a propoer analysis. Several risk measures that are frequently used in finance are shown to be defunct or badly adapted for the circumstances in which they tend to be used. We described how in certain cases sub-optimal investment decisions are taken based on an error in measurement, or how in certain cases the debate in the economic literature has been disorientated. The studies underline that the appreciation of financial risk is far from trivial, even in the realms that are generally considered as well-established.

M. Com. (Financial Economics) / The success of a monetary policy framework depends mostly on whether economic agents, especially the financial market participants, understand monetary policy decisions and are able to predict them in advance. Academics and practitioners agree that a successful Central Bank should be “boring” such that surprises about monetary policy should not arise in the announcements and the actions of the Bank, but rather in the macroeconomic developments. Thus policies that enhance clarity, transparency and communication between a Central Bank and the market can contribute to strengthening monetary policy predictability and improve the effectiveness of monetary policy itself. This dissertation assesses the predictability of the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) interest rate decisions since the adoption of the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in February 2000. Firstly, in order to evaluate predictability, money market forward rates are used to test whether the financial market is able to forecast the future level of policy rates, using the unbiased forward rate hypothesis. Then, using an event study methodology, changes in the money market forward rates following a monetary policy announcement are used to test whether the financial market participants were surprised by the SARB’s monetary policy decisions. The results of the unbiased forward rate hypothesis (UFRH) and the event study analysis indicate that, at least in the short term, specifically on a one-month-forward period, financial market participants have been able to predict the SARB’s monetary policy decisions with a high degree of accuracy. Moreover, the results of the event study analysis show that the South African financial market is at least semi-strong efficient, in the sense that monetary policy decisions are quickly incorporated in the market interest rates following the announcements. The event study analysis also provided some evidence that volatility in financial markets at the time of interest rate decisions has been declining over time.

Recurrent events are very common in a wide range of scientific disciplines. The majority of statistical models developed to characterise recurrent events are derived from either reliability theory or survival analysis. This thesis concentrates on applications that arise from reliability, which in general involve the study about components or devices where the recurring event is failure. Specifically, interest lies in repairable components that experience a number of failures during their lifetime. The goal is to develop statistical models in order to gain a good understanding about the driving force behind the failures. A particular counting process is adopted, the non-homogenous Poisson process (NHPP), where the rate of occurrence (failure rate) depends on time. The primary application considered in the thesis is the prediction of underground water pipe bursts although the methods described have more general scope. First, a Bayesian mixed effects NHPP model is developed and applied to a network of water pipes using MCMC. The model is then extended to a mixture of NHPPs. Further, a special mixture case, the zero-inflated NHPP model is developed to cope with data involving a large number of pipes that have never failed. The zero-inflated model is applied to the same pipe network. Quite often, data involving recurrent failures over time, are aggregated where for instance the times of failures are unknown and only the total number of failures are available. Aggregated versions of the NHPP model and its zero-inflated version are developed to accommodate aggregated data and these are applied to the aggregated version of the earlier data set. Complex devices in random environments often exhibit what may be termed as state changes in their behaviour. These state changes may be caused by unobserved and possibly non-stationary processes such as severe weather changes. A hidden semi-Markov NHPP model is formulated, which is a NHPP process modulated by an unobserved semi-Markov process. An algorithm is developed to evaluate the likelihood of this model and a Metropolis-Hastings sampler is constructed for parameter estimation. Simulation studies are performed to test implementation and finally an illustrative application of the model is presented. The thesis concludes with a general discussion and a list of possible generalisations and extensions as well as possible applications other than the ones considered.

The forced Oscillation Technique (FOT) can be used to measure lung impedance continuously during breathing. However, spectral overlap between the breathing waveform and the applied flow oscillation can be problematic if the frequency content of spontaneous breathing is unknown. This problem motivated us to develop a modification to the FOT system called the Tracked Breathing Trainer. The modification uses biofeedback to constrain subjects to breathe at a single predetermined frequency. This thesis investigates the engineering and physiological aspects of the modification we made. We studied 8 adult non-asthmatic and 8 adult asthmatic subjects. Three 16 s perturbatory flow oscillation signals ranging from 1-40 Hz were used on the subjects. Each subject received three trials per perturbation for both spontaneous and tracked breathing. We then fitted a resistance-elastance-inertance model of the lung to each data set. For non-asthmatic subjects, the average resistance (R) and elastance (E) values for the first spontaneous breathing trial were 2.5±0.15 cmH2O.s.ml-1 and 18.1±3.55 cmH2O.ml-1, and for the third spontaneous breathing trial were 2.4±0.12 cmH2O.s.ml-1 and 21.8±4 cmH2O.ml-1. R and E for the first tracked breathing trial were 2.3±0.21 cmH2O.s.ml-1 and 33.6±7.4 cmH2O.ml-1, and for the third tracked breathing trial were 2.4±0.14 cmH2O.s.ml-1 and 25.75±4.3 cmH2O.ml-1, respectively. For asthmatic subjects, the average R and E values for the first spontaneous breathing trial were 3.32±0.68 cmH2O.s.ml-1 and 39.13±9.8 cmH2O.ml-1, and for the third spontaneous breathing trial were 3.12±0.15 cmH2O.s.ml-1 and 39.91±6.2 cmH2O.ml-1. R and E for the first tracked breathing trial were 2.86±0.15 cmH2O.s.ml-1 and 32.47±4.1 cmH2O.ml-1, and for the third tracked breathing trial were 2.86±0.21 cmH2O.s.ml-1 and 33.89±10 cmH2O.ml-1, respectively. These results show that R was consistently lower during tracked breathing than spontaneous breathing in both non-asthmatic and asthmatic subjects. However, an increase in E was observed during tracked breathing. We suspect this effect may have resulted from dynamic hyperinflation. These results also show that R and E are reproducible with both spontaneous and tracked breathing, and that R and E were not noticeably different between both breathing maneuvers. We conclude that using biofeedback to control the breathing pattern during application of the FOT in normal subjects does not significantly affect impedance measurements, and thus may be useful for avoiding spectral overlap between FOT perturbations and the breathing pattern.

The Gambia, a small open economy, implements a managed floating exchange rate regime. The central bank (CBG) has the mandate to design and implement monetary policy with the primary aim of achieving price and exchange stability in the economy. In spite of interventions by the CBG, the country continues to experience fluctuations in its exchange rate with several instances of major spikes in recent years. This thesis proposes a solution, through a change of policy regime, to control the long time and disturbing depreciation of the domestic currency. In a vector auto regressive framework, the study investigates sources of the exchange rate variability using quarterly data from 1998:Q1 to 2012:Q4. Furthermore, the OCA theory and the pre- conditions of inflation targeting are used to make a choice between a common currency and inflation targeting for the Gambia. The findings from the Johansen test of cointegration suggest that the selected key macroeconomic variables are cointegrated, meaning, they have long run equilibrium. The results of the VECM reveal that error correction mechanism can be achieved in some of the variables. This indicates that there exists the convergence process. In addition, the results from the impulse response analysis put forward that the macroeconomic variables have effect on...

This thesis compares monetary policies, institutional status and different approaches to the selection of monetary policy and setting goals of central banks in the case of Czech National Bank, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve System. The first chapter deals with the characteristics of the central bank, legislative regulation of the Czech National Bank is analysed there and it mentions the Czech peculiarities in the adjustment of the central bank. In addition, this chapter deals with the possibilities for the name of the central bank and there are examples of different solutions from the world. The second chapter focuses on the analysis of the central bank's position in the state. It emphasise independence as it is the core value for the central bank. This chapter also describes the regulatory and supervisory powers of the central bank and briefly discuss the composition of assets and financing of the central bank and its basic financial statements. The third chapter deals with the theory of monetary policy. Particular attention is paid to the monetary policy of inflation targeting. Furthermore, this chapter provides an overview of transmission mechanisms and describes various monetary policy instruments which central banks have. At the end of this part of the thesis there is a...

Le ciblage de l’inflation est le cadre le plus récent de la politique monétaire dans le monde. Il est désormais largement choisi par les pays avancés ainsi que par les pays émergents. Cependant, deux questions principales sont encore en débat particulièrement dans les pays émergent et en développement. Ils s’agissent des avantages du ciblage d’inflation et du respect de conditions préalables afin d’assurer le succès de ce régime. Empiriquement, on conclut que le ciblage d’inflation est un cadre de politique monétaire réussie pour les pays émergents. En plus, il n'est pas nécessaire pour ces pays de satisfaire toutes les conditions préalables strictes avant de réussir à l'adopter. La situation budgétaire et l'indépendance de la banque centrale jouent un rôle plus important que les autres conditions et doivent être préparées en premier lieu. Concernant le Vietnam, par l'approche structurelle vecteur autorégressif (VAR), la thèse montre que la politique monétaire de la banque centrale n’est pas efficace. Donc, il permet de confirmer la nécessité du changement de stratégie monétaire par rapport au cadre actuel. Cependant, notamment parce que la banque centrale n’est pas indépendante, le Vietnam ne peut pas adopter le ciblage d’inflation dans un bref délai. Les recommandations du durcissement de la contrainte budgétaire et de l’augmentation l’indépendance de la banque centrale sont suggérées avant la mise en œuvre de sa stratégie de ciblage d’inflation. / Inflation targeting (hereafter IT) is the newest monetary policy framework in the world. The practice of IT has been chosen by both advanced countries and emerging countries. However, two main issues are still under debate particularly in emerging and developing countries. They are the benefits of IT and preconditions to success adoption. Empirically, we showed that IT is considered as a successful monetary policy framework for emerging countries. In addition, it is not necessary for emerging markets to satisfy all stringent preconditions to successfully adopt IT. In practice, the fiscal situation and the central bank independence play a more important role than other conditions and need to be prepared first.Basing on Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR), the thesis concludes that Vietnamese monetary policy currently does not effectively control the inflation rate. Inflation targeting framework would be a solution to this. Nonetheless, this thesis concludes that at this moment in time Vietnam is not able to adopt the IT framework, as it still must prepare some of the preconditions required before official adoption. The recommendations of hardening the budget constraint and increase central bank independence in relationship with government are suggested before implementing IT strategy.

The thesis aims at identifying the reasons behind the heterogeneous inflation performance of countries across Central and Eastern Europe. The impact of a large number of variables is being assessed in a dynamic panel data model covering 20 countries over the period 2003-2013. The empirical results suggest that cross-country differences in inflation are attributed to the structure of the economy, to the capital deepening effects and openness. Along with the structural factors, cyclical positions also prove to be of particular importance in explaining inflation across the region, since during the last decade most of the Central and Eastern European countries have experienced fast GDP growth, a credit boom and increased domestic demand that in turn fueled inflation.