This study evaluates Phillips curve forecasts of inflation for Rwanda. The study relies on the use of various single equation prototype Phillips curve models, as described by Stock and Watson (2008). Pseudo out-of-sample comparison tests are used to evaluate the forecast performance of these Phillips curve forecasts relative to the AR (autoregression) benchmark forecasts. In this regard, tests of equal forecast accuracy based on mean square forecast error and those based on forecast encompassing as used by several scholars (for example, Clark and McCracken (2001, 2005), Rapach and Weber (2004)) are reported. Furthermore, the results from forecasts using inflation in levels and in differences as the dependent variable are reported, to check the sensitivity to this specification issue. The study finds that the Phillips curve and augmented Phillips curve forecasts outperform the AR benchmark forecasts at one- and two-quarter horizons. The output gap, exchange rate and money supply (M3) are found to be good predictors of inflation in Rwanda in the generalised Phillips curve context. It is therefore strongly recommended that Rwandan economic policymakers take into consideration these variables when forecasting inflation.

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Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2003. / Some digitised pages may appear illegible due to the condition of the original hard copy / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Since 1989 an increasing number of countries have introduced inflation targeting as a monetary policy and many of them have achieved great success. This apparent success has led some to speculate that inflation targets might also be desirable for countries at somewhat lower stages of economic development, including South Africa. The idea of an inflation target for South Africa has, in fact drawn growing support as a practical response to the increasing difficulty of monetary targeting with a liberalised capital account and was implemented in the country on 23 February 2000. Inflation targeting makes the exchange rate less flexible in response to foreign shocks and thus lessens the automatic stabilisation provided by flexible exchange rates. There is some argument to suggest that South Africa may not be a good candidate for an inflation target relative to other countries that have introduced similar policies because of the relative importance of foreign shocks and the weak linkage between monetary policy and inflation. The study of both developing iand developed countries and also countries with and without explicit inflation targeting policies has shown that there is no evidence to substantiate that South Africa should have less success at curtailing inflation through the adoption of inflation targeting. The study explores the economic history and tradition of each of the evaluated countries, namely Australia, Chile, Germany, New Zealand, South Africa and the United States of America, with specific reference to the history and cause of inflation. It is summarised for each individual country based on the policy or approach that the country has adopted and the apparent success thereof. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Vanaf 1989 het al hoe meer lande inflasie mikpunte as deel van hul monetêre beleid ingestel en baie van hulle het groot sukses behaal. Hierdie klaarblyklike sukses het ander daarnatoe gelei om te glo dat inflasieteikens ook van belang in minder ontwikkelde lande, Suid- Afrika ingesluit, mag wees. Die konsep van inflasiemikpunte het inteendeel positiewe reaksie uitgelok as 'n potensiële antwoord op toenemende moeilike valute teikens en is in Suid- Afrika vanaf 23 Februarie 2000 toegepas. Inflasieteikens veroorsaak dat wisselkoerse weens buitelandse ekonomiese skokke minder buigbaar is, dit verlaag dus die outomatiese stabiliteit wat buigbare wisselkoerse voorsien. Daar word gesê dat Suid- Afrika, in vergelyking met ander lande, wat die beleid alreeds toegepas het, nie 'n goeie kandidaat is vir inflasieteikens is nie weens die belangrikheid van buitelandse skokke en die swak koppeling tussen monetêre beleid en inflasie. Hierdie studie, wat beide ontwikkelde en ontwikkelende lande, met of sonder formele inflasieteikens, ondersoek, dui aan dat daar geen bewys is dat Suid- Afrika minder sukses kan behaal deur die toepasssing van formele inflasieteikens nie. Die studie is gemik daarop om die ekonomiese geskiedenis en tradisie van elk van die bespreekte lande, naamlik, Australië, Chile, Duitsland, Nieu- Seeland, Suid- Afrika en die VSA te ondersoek, met spesifieke verwysing na die geskiedenis en oorsaak van inflasie in daardie lande. Elke land word volgens die beleid of benadering wat toegepas is, en die klaarblyklikr sukses daarvan, opgesom.

M.Comm. / The aim of this study is to examine the appropriateness of inflation targeting as the future monetary policy strategy of South Africa. In keeping with international trends, South Africa needs to recognise the changing financial environment in which the Reserve Bank must now operate. The purpose of this study is to show whether South Africa's economic environment and the SARB as the monetary authorities, are indeed ready for implementing inflation targeting in South Africa. Given the limited experience with inflation targeting, the theoretical analysis has formed the foundation that has shaped and influenced the thinking on this strategy monetary policy. The rationale for price stability as the long-term goal of monetary policy is pivotal to all the strategies for controlling inflation: exchange rate pegging; monetary targeting; nominal GDP targeting; the "Just Do It" policy; and lastly, inflation targeting. This study examines the key features and concepts of inflation targeting in order to determine their relevance in a framework for South Africa. Transparency and accountability are central to the inflation-targeting regime and depend largely on the independence of the central bank. It is important to establish the credibility and flexibility of the inflation-targeting framework through frequent communication and by ensuring the accountability of the central bank to the government and the public. Policymakers are faced with many issues and choices when designing the inflation targeting strategy and the potential benefits of the framework will depend on how effectively the strategy is formulated and implemented. It is vital that the design of the strategy attempt to effectively balance both the transparency and the flexibility of the framework. Once we have the theoretical basis we do a detailed analysis of the international experience with inflation targeting. The 1990's saw a number of countries adopting explicit inflation targets as the goal of monetary policy: New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Australia, Finland, Israel, Spain and the Czech Republic. Each country had its own challenges and issues with designing the inflation-targeting framework. We draw on the lessons from the international experience to assess the applicability of inflation targeting for South Africa. After looking at a brief history of South African monetary policy we consider whether the institutional framework in South Africa is appropriate for effectively implementing inflation targeting. We also take a look at the issues of design and implementation that are relevant to the South African situation while considering the central question of whether South Africa is indeed ready for inflation targeting. Finally, we show that the success of an inflation-targeting framework in South Africa will depend on the ability of the Reserve Bank to ensure the transparency of monetary policy and the reliability of the inflation forecasts. At the same time, the credibility of the inflation-targeting regime will depend, not only on a political commitment by the government, but also on the unfailing support of the labour market and the general public. Thus, the biggest challenge facing the Reserve Bank is to prepare itself and the South African market for the new age of direct inflation targeting as an anchor for monetary policy.

M.Comm. / The overall objective of this study was to determine the appropriateness of Inflation Targeting to South Africa, or of South Africa's suitability for Inflation Targeting. For that reason, I shall produce information that will aid in the determination of whether the South African Reserve Bank has been correct in their adoption of this framework, and to propose an alternative, more all-encompassing option. The research design used in this study in terms of Tripodi, Fellin and Meyer's (1982:40) classification can be termed as a hybrid of the exploratory and the quantitative-descriptive designs. Chapter 1 introduces the reader to the research paper. This chapter incorporates the rationale and importance of the study, its methodology, hypothesis, limitations, aims, and referencing method. It sets out clear aims and objectives for the thesis while providing an overview of the material. To facilitate the analysis of Inflation Targeting in South Africa it was vital to have a clear and accurate understanding of what Inflation Targeting is. The definition and an analysis of the definition are covered in Chapter 2. As other authors have detailed this aspect voluminously, it is just dealt with summarily in this section. Chapter 3 discusses the requirements for Inflation Targeting as set out by the authorities. These factors are primarily of a technical nature. While the information garnered for this section is invaluable, it is inadequate in isolation. Countries' individual circumstances play an important role, and need to be considered along with the purely technical requirements for Inflation Targeting. This chapter is important in the analysis as it provides an important yardstick for the analysis of the requirements in South Africa. In order to attain an enhanced grasp of Inflation Targeting and its potential impact and effects on South Africa, it is imperative to take lessons from other countries where the framework has been implemented. Chapter 4 analyses international experiences with Inflation Targeting, with the main aim of learning from the experience of developed and, more importantly, developing nations. The paper then moves into the most important section: that of South Africa. Once a full understanding of what Inflation Targeting involves is obtained, both theoretically and empirically, we are in a position to consider where South Africa fits in. South African monetary policy is evaluated briefly, while the technical requirements of Inflation Targeting are analysed in their South African context. Various problems are discussed with the applicability of the framework to South Africa. The later part of this section analyses technical and socio-political complicating factors, while a description is provided of a suggested alternative framework. The final chapter concludes that South Africa is, indeed, almost certainly "less than suitable" for Inflation Targeting and suggests that a more holistic framework of a "GEAR-type" nature is more likely to be appropriate to a country with the uniqueness of South Africa.

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