Diss.--Finanzwissenschaft--Universität zu Köln, 1994. / Notes bibliogr. en bas de page. Bibliogr. p. 201-219.

Th. 3e cycle--Sci. de gest.--Rennes 1, 1983. / Institut de gestion de Rennes, Laboratoire de finance.

Texte remanié de: Diss.--Köln, 1992. / Bibliogr. p. [182]-205.

The aim of the thesis is to study the performance of emerging economies under the inflation targeting as a framework. This framework is characterized by the direct target that it has on inflation which should be achieved within a period. Inflation targeting was initially adopted by industrialized economies, and the outcomes throughout the years have been substantially good for other economies to join this framework. The dataset used is updated with data from after the financial crises allowing space for us to test another hypothesis about the importance of inflation targeting during the financial crises. We used difference to difference model to test our hypothesis and we concluded that inflation targeting does not have any significant statistical effect on the output growth, but it does have a statistical significant effect in the inflation rate. We also pointed out that the economies that were targeting inflation during the financial crises performed much better compared to the ones which did not. JEL Classification E31, E44, G01 Keywords Inflation targeting, emerging and developed economies, financial crises Author's e-mail sreshketa@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail tomas.holub@cnb.cz

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M.Ing. / Vehicles used in military, agricultural, forestry, or construction applications often encounter different road surfaces during a single journey. In order to optimise the mobility of these vehicles, different tyre pressures are required for different types of terrain (sand, mud, cross country, tar road, etc.). An in-motion tyre pressure control system will enable the vehicle's operator to change the tyre pressures without leaving the vehicle. Such a system will not only allow optimum surface contact between the tyres and the terrain - thus improving vehicletraction, but it can also increase the lifespan of the tyres and reduce fuel consumption. The key design criteria for such a system are: quick reaction times, an effective operator interface, and reliability. In case of system failure, the operator must be able to override the control, and the tyres should be inflated to a pre-set default pressure. When the fault had been corrected, the system can be restarted from within the cabin, to inflate or deflate the tyres as required. The focus of this thesis is on the design criteria of a tyre pressure control system, receiving inputs from the driver and from onboard vehicle sensors; and then adjusting individual tyre pressures if necessary, while the vehicle is on the move. Based on the inputs to the control system, the optimum setting for the tyre pressure is determined from a look-up table stored in memory of an onboard computer. This table contains the pressure-speed and pressure-axle load relationship. A unique relation is programmed into the microprocessor for each different vehicle. To install a tyre pressure control system on a vehicle, a computer program is used to control the following hardware which are necessary to inflate or deflate tyres: An air compressor and storage tank. Pneumatic valve. Rotating seal. Pressure and speed sensing elements. Electronic control unit. An experimental set-up was built, from various components or sub-systems, which were integrated systematically until the system was working as a unit. The functionality of the system was tested, and although the results obtained do not yet justify the commercial manufacturing of such systems, it is trusted that this research has contributed towards the increased emphasis that is placed upon vehicle safety and comfort systems.

The focus of the following three essays rests on the Kydland-Prescott (1977) and Barro-Gordon (1983) model of time inconsistent discretionary monetary policy. The first essay derives a model in which the costs and benefits to inflation are tied to the underlying features of the economy. The benefit to inflation arises due to monopolistic competition among firms and the cost is due to a staggered timing structure for nominal money. The benefit of this approach is that it can be shown that factors that increase the monetary authority's incentive to inflate may also increase the costs to inflation, and therefore do not necessarily result in a worsened inflation bias. In particular, the model shows that discretionary inflation in the economy is nonmonotonically related to the distortion. The model also indicates that changes in the real interest rate affect the monetary authority's incentives and hence the discretionary rate of inflation. An increase in the labor share raises the discretionary rate. Lastly, lack of commitment, costs to inflation, and the presence of a distortion are crucial for discretionary inflation to be biased above the Friedman (1969) rule. The second essay builds on the first, extending the model to an open economy environment. The extended model indicates several channels through which openness affects the monetary authority's incentives. Most significantly, the model cannot replicate the Romer (1993) and Lane (1995) result that openness reduces the discretionary rate of inflation. Again, the model relates the underlying features of the economy on the discretionary rate, and an economy's foreign asset position. Strategic incentives are also important for determining whether an open economy's rate of inflation is less than that of a comparable closed economy. The last essay analyzes empirically the relationship between the overall degree of competition among firms, as measured by the markup, and the average rate of inflation for the OECD group of countries. In line with the time-consistency argument, results indicate a positive relationship between markups and inflation. This finding is robust to the inclusion of several explanatory variables, such as terms of trade effects, and central bank independence. The evidence is weak, however, in the presence of per capita GDP. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

Inflationsmålets historia sträcker sig drygt 30 år tillbaka i tiden. En förutsägbar centralbank skapar möjligheter för marknadsaktörerna att sätta upp inflationsförväntningar i linje med det uppsatta målet som bidrar till att prisstegringstakten följer den önskade nivån. I dag har en stor majoritet av de mest ekonomiskt utvecklade länderna valt att införa ett inflationsmål som ett riktmärke för landets centralbank att rikta penningpolitiken mot. Samtidigt som inflationsnivåerna har sjunkit har också stora delar av länderna idag låga räntenivåer. Det innebär att centralbankens ammunition kan vara förbrukad ifall inflationen skulle behövas tryckas upp om inflationsnivån är under sitt mål. Syftet är att försöka förklara om inflationsmålet har haft någon betydelse avseende att minska inflationsvariansen samt om det även har haft en påverkan på BNP-gapet. För att undersöka inflationsmålets betydelse har vi undersökt flera ekonomiskt välutvecklade länder från inflationsmålets introduktion fram tills nu. Relevansen och legitimiteten i studien grundas på ett flertal tidigare studier. Studien ger en historisk överblick över inflationsnivån och dess stabilitet för länderna sedan 80-talet. Resultaten visar en stadig nedgång samt stabilisering på inflationen för samtliga länder. Däremot finner vi inga stöd för att det enbart skulle vara inflationsmålets förtjänst. Vi kan inte heller observera någon skillnad för BNP-gapet med eller utan inflationsmål. Även om vi inte kan hitta bevis på skillnader av att ha ett inflationsmål eller inte, så tror vi att det har haft en betydelse för de stabiliseringar som inflationen fått tack vare att aktörer lättare kan anpassa sina förväntningar mot målet. / The inflation target's history stretches back over 30 years. A predictable central bank creates opportunities for the market participants to set inflation expectations in line with what is set to be made at the price increase that follows the desired level. Today, a large majority of the most economically well-developed countries have chosen to introduce an inflation target as a benchmark for the country's central bank to target its monetary policy. At the same time as inflation levels have fallen, large proportion of the countries today also have low interest rates. This means that the central bank's ammunition can’t be used in case a rise of inflation is needed if the level of inflation is below its target. The purpose of the thesis is to explain whether the inflation target has had any significance in reducing the inflation variance and whether it has had an impact on the output-gap. To investigate the significance of the inflation target, we have examined several economically well-developed countries from the introduction of the inflation target until now. The relevance and legitimacy of the study is based on a number of previous studies in the field of inflation targeting. The study provides a historical overview of inflation levels and stability for countries since the 1980s. The results show a steady decline and stabilization of inflation for all countries. We find no support for it being solely the merit of the inflation target. Nor can we observe any difference for the GDP gap with or without inflation targets. Although we cannot find evidence of differences in having an inflation target or not, we believe that it has had an impact on the stabilizations that inflation has gained due to the fact that actors can more easily adjust their expectations to the target.

This study evaluates Phillips curve forecasts of inflation for Rwanda. The study relies on the use of various single equation prototype Phillips curve models, as described by Stock and Watson (2008). Pseudo out-of-sample comparison tests are used to evaluate the forecast performance of these Phillips curve forecasts relative to the AR (autoregression) benchmark forecasts. In this regard, tests of equal forecast accuracy based on mean square forecast error and those based on forecast encompassing as used by several scholars (for example, Clark and McCracken (2001, 2005), Rapach and Weber (2004)) are reported. Furthermore, the results from forecasts using inflation in levels and in differences as the dependent variable are reported, to check the sensitivity to this specification issue. The study finds that the Phillips curve and augmented Phillips curve forecasts outperform the AR benchmark forecasts at one- and two-quarter horizons. The output gap, exchange rate and money supply (M3) are found to be good predictors of inflation in Rwanda in the generalised Phillips curve context. It is therefore strongly recommended that Rwandan economic policymakers take into consideration these variables when forecasting inflation.

This dissertation is a collection of three chapters on the effect of corruption on inflation through public finance channels. Those chapters test the following hypothesis corrupt officials such as tax collectors, procurement officials, government sales officials, and so on, waste liquid government resources through their corrupt practices. The waste of resources by corrupt officials at multiple levels of a government may cause budget deficits or at least create a need for liquidities. Therefore, a government will evaluate its available options to meet this need and make a decision taking into consideration one or a combination of options. Such a decision is unavoidable. The first attempt at a solution may take the form of seigniorage, followed by borrowing. Financing this need will result in expansionary budget spending, thus leading to higher inflation. Chapter 1 tests the effects of corruption on inflation through public finance channels, seigniorage and debt financing. We use data for 1995 2011 across 72 countries, and apply techniques that control for the possible endogeneity. In all of our various models the estimated specifications show that corruption contributes to inflation both on its own and through public finance channels. The results are significant and have the right sign, which gives evidence of the contribution made by corrupt officials to increasing inflation, thus eventually hurting growth. The positive and significant results linking debt financing with corruption indicate that corrupt officials have alternative sources of funds when seigniorage is restricted. For policy makers, bringing about a diminishment in the effects of corruption on inflation requires a parallel strategy involving both central bank independence and government borrowing. In Chapter 2 we have investigated the relationship between corruption and inflation for all US states by examining the misuse of federal transfers to states as a channel. Our state level corruption measure consists of the number of officials convicted. We use data for the period of from 1992 through 2007 with different model specifications, fixed effect and second stage least square models. We find that state corruption contributes to higher levels of inflation. This result is robust throughout our differing model specifications. The effect of corruption on inflation takes place indirectly through state public financing, specifically federal transfer. In addition, our results are also robust when scaling convicted officials to size of state population, number of state prisoners, and number of state public employees. Chapter 3 tests our hypothesis using a developing country over regional level, Indian states. We use corruption data on perception and experience that Below Poverty Line households encounter when obtaining public services. We assume that corruption across Indian states hurts people who live below the poverty line. These people are already hurt by their poverty, which causes state governments to spend more to provide them aid and which also prevents such households from effectively participating in the state's economic growth. These high levels of state spending and lower growth rates have inflationary consequences. We found no direct relationship between corruption and inflation, indicating in agreement with the literature on corruption that the impact of corruption on inflation through certain channels is indirect, through public finance channel. We conclude that Indian state governments suffer from corruption that causes the "common man" to pay bribes in exchange for public services. This causes more households to claim more aid from their state governments, also prevents those households from effectively participating in their state's economic growth. Thereby, the rate of inflation increases along with this expansionary state spending.