市場自律是保險市場監管的重要部分之一，可有效提高監管效率，保障整個保險業持續健康發展。在大陸第二代償付能力監管體系下, 已正式將建設市場自律機制提上日程，以充分發揮市場自律之作用。所以目前大陸保險市場是否存在市場自律是個值得研究的議題。 本研究以2010年至2015年間大陸產壽險公司數據為樣本，通過分析償付能力充足率、保險投訴等变数與保費收入、退保率間的關係，來衡量大陸保險業是否存在市場自律。實證結果發現各变数對保費收入有一定影響，對退保率無明顯影響，且關於風險變動對保險需求變動影響之結果最不理想，即消費者對風險變動狀況的敏感性並不高，表明大陸存在一定程度的市場自律，但作用較弱。 / Market discipline is one of the important parts of insurance supervision, which can effectively improve the efficiency of supervision and guarantee the sustained and healthy development of the insurance industry. Under the China Risk Oriented Solvency System, the construction of market discipline has been formally put on the agenda to give full play to it. Therefore, the existence of market discipline in China’s insurance market is a topic worthy of study. In this study, to measure the existence of the market discipline, we use the data of the property and life insurance companies from 2010 to 2015 to analyze the relationship between the solvency margin ratio, insurance complaints, etc. and the premium income and termination rate. The empirical results show that those explanatory variables have a certain influence on the premium income, but do not have significant effect on the termination rate. Additionally, the result regarding the impact of a change in risk on the insurance demand is not as predicted, namely insurance consumers are not sensitive to the change of risk. The empirical findings indicate that the insurance market of China has a certain degree of market discipline, but the effect is not very significant.

台灣位處環太平洋地震帶，為全球地震風險潛勢較高的地區之一；因台灣高科技產業蓬勃發展，地震保險需求殷切，再加上開放保險費率自由化的政策及金控效應，趨使保險業間競爭白熱化，惡性價格競爭及保險經紀人的推波助瀾，保險公司的清償能力面臨重大考驗。 台灣在保險監理方面如同日本、美國採行風險基礎資本額（RBC）制度，惟國際間位處高度地震風險潛勢之國家大都另建立一套地震保險監理機制，以確保保險公司的巨災準備金足以支付回歸期地震所造成的損失，其中以美國加州及加拿大政府均採用地震保險PML申報制度作為地震保險監理之依據最值得台灣學習。 地震保險PML評估可採用CRESTA Zone平均損失幅度表計算或採用認許的地震風險評估電腦軟體推估獲得，實施的關鍵為主管機關應建立具有公信力的CRESTA Zone平均損失幅度表。本文特就二種評估方式的利弊做深入的比較分析，並藉由地震風險評估軟體的架構說明影響地震保險PML的因素與權重，作為保險公司落實地震風險管理之依據。 本研究參考Solvency II的三大支柱提出建立地震保險監理機制之結論與建議如下： 1.鼓勵建立保險公司的地震風險管理機制。 2.公佈CRESTA Zone平均損失幅度表，作為保險公司地震保險PML申報依據，以落實產物保險業之地震保險監理機制。 3.依據保險公司申報資料，提供保險主管機關實施差異化管理之依據。 4.主動揭露經營績效、強化保險市場紀律，建立公平合理的經營環境。 期待藉由建立適當的地震保險監理機制，減輕或消弭產物保險市場面臨自由化的惡性價格競爭與保險經營面的不合理現象，進而達到健全保險經營環境、促進保險業長期穩定發展，並確保社會大眾之保險權益的目標。 關鍵詞：地震保險監理機制、地震保險PML、巨災準備金、風險基礎資本額、地震風險評估軟體 / Located at the Pacific Rim earthquake zone, Taiwan has been recognized as one of the severe seismic hazard areas in the world. With the bloom of high tech industry in the past two decades, the demand of earthquake insurance has been considerably increasing. However, along with the liberalization of insurance market, the new business model of financial holdings and the expanding influence from international brokers, insurance companies’ solvency capacity has been significantly challenged. Taiwanese Government, same as Japan and U.S., adopts Risk-Based Capital (RBC) method in insurance supervision, while most countries with high earthquake potential have set up independent earthquake insurance supervision systems to ensure insurers’ earthquake reserves capable to compensate the huge earthquake losses. Among all the measures, the PML reporting system adopted by Canada and the State of California to regulate and trace insurance companies’ financial statuses could be an adequate paradigm for Taiwan. The PML estimation could be obtained either using computer models or following default mean damage ratio table. This research compares the strength and weakness between these two methods, and presents the importance of parameters and key points in earthquake insurance management. Based on the three pillars of Solvency II, the conclusions and recommendations of this paper are: (1)Encourage insurance companies to build up the earthquake risk management mechanism; (2)Establish the official default mean damage ratio table for PML reporting system; (3)Adopt differential supervision practice to different level insurance companies; (4)Promote the self-disclosure of key business information and enhance market discipline. Establishing a sound earthquake insurance supervision system would not only ease the immoderate low-price competition but the whole insurance environment could also be stabilized and improved. It will ultimately achieve the objective to insure society liability and benefit the public as well. Keywords: Earthquake Insurance, Earthquake Model, Catastrophic Risk Management, Insurance Supervision, Risk-Based Capital, CRESTA Zone, PML