In this thesis, stochastic methods are utilized to improve a familiar comprehensive probabilistic model to obtain realistic estimates of the earthquake insurance premium rates in different seismic zones of Turkey. The model integrates the information on future earthquake threat with the information on expected earthquake damage to buildings. The quantification of the future earthquake threat is achieved by making use of the seismic hazard analysis techniques. Due to the uncertainties involved, the hazard that may occur at a site during future earthquakes has to be treated in a probabilistic manner. Accessibility of past earthquake data from a number of different data sources, encourages the consideration of every single earthquake report. Seismic zonation of active earthquake generating regions has been improved as recent contributions are made available. Finally, up-to-date data bases have been utilized to establish local attenuation relationships reflecting the expected earthquake wave propagation and its randomness more effectively. The damage that may occur to structures during future earthquakes involves various uncertainties and also has to be treated in a probabilistic manner. For this purpose, damage probability matrices (DPM), expressing what will happen to buildings, designed according to some particular set of requirements, during earthquakes of various intensities, are constructed from observational and estimated data. With the above considerations, in order to demonstrate the application of the improved probabilistic method, earthquake insurance premium rates are computed for reinforced concrete and masonry buildings constructed in different seismic zones of Turkey.

過去台灣的地震保險一直受到忽略，因此缺乏完整的地震損失資料。本研究主要的目的是利用統計方法來模擬地震損失，估計地震損失所造成的直接損失金額，並且進一步討論如何控制地震超額損失保險的預期損失。 本研究推論災害性地震發生頻率是一個負二項分配﹔而損失幅度則利用所求出的房屋倒塌數模型，再假設每一棟倒塌房屋的個設價格作加總而得，因此模擬出地震損失，可以估計出預期地震損失，並且可以進一步建立地震損失機率分布情況。 對於控制地震超額損失保險的預期損失，本研究提出以理賠上限與理賠起始點兩種方式來作損失控制。實證結果發現，利用理賠上限作超額再保險會比較可以控制地震損失。同時也可以利用模擬出的結果來決定應該如何設立理賠上限與理賠起始點。 / The earthquake insurance in Taiwan is ignored for many years, so that the data of earthquake is lacked. This study applied the statistical methods to simulate the earthquake losses in Taiwan, and estimated the loss amount, and discussed how to control the expected loss of excess-of-loss insurance. The frequency of disaster earthquake is a negative binomial distribution. And the severity of each disaster earthquake is to sum up the assumed dollar amount of each damaged houses. Compounding the frequency of earthquake with the severity of earthquake, we can simulate the losses of earthquake. Hence the expected earthquake losses and the probability density function of earthquake losses are built. In order to control the expected loss of excess-of-loss reinsurance, this study compared the results of the trigger level and the capped level of the reinsurance claim, and concluded that the capped level is better than trigger level in controlling the expected loss of excess-of-loss insurance.

因台灣全島具有許多地震斷層，各處均有可能發生地震，又大型地震易伴隨之地震變動，常有斷層、山崩、地裂、地盤隆起、陷沒、崩崖、噴沙、噴泥、土壤液化、井水變化之情形發生。地震所造成之損失相當嚴重，若僅賴政府之事後救濟，將造成納稅人及國家沉重之財政負荷，相形之下，使人民事前投保地震保險，共同分散損失，乃較佳選擇。有鑑於位於高地震風險地區之國家，例如，位於「環太平洋地震帶」之日本、紐西蘭、美國加州，及位於「歐亞地震帶」之土耳其等，均陸續發展地震保險制度，故本論文欲藉各國地震保險制度，探討我國目前住宅地震保險制度之完善性。 本論文以此為主題，探討之內容包含地震風險是否具可保性、政府是否應介入地震保險市場、綜合天災保險之可行性、地震保險保費釐定之考量因素、是否應強制投保地震保險、強制承保之必要性、目前之投保方式是否構成違法之搭售行為、及理賠標準之爭議等問題，於論文最後並提出相關條文之修正建議。 / Earthquakes occur frequently in Taiwan, and they always lead to catastrophic losses. If the government invests more taxpayer dollars into ex post compensation, it will be unfair to other taxpayers. For insurance plays an important role in the modern societies. It can successfully distribute the risks ex ante and contribute to make societies more stable. So this paper introduces Earthquake Insurance to solve the problem, discusses the topic from different aspects, and does a comparative research on legislation between America, Japan, New Zealand, Turkey and Taiwan. The outline of this paper discusses the insurability, the ways of risk management, the need of government intervention, whether to introduce mandatory insurance, the coverage extent the insurer can provide, and how to determine the premium. At the last of this paper, the author also raises some suggestions of Insurance Law.

台灣位處環太平洋地震帶，為全球地震風險潛勢較高的地區之一；因台灣高科技產業蓬勃發展，地震保險需求殷切，再加上開放保險費率自由化的政策及金控效應，趨使保險業間競爭白熱化，惡性價格競爭及保險經紀人的推波助瀾，保險公司的清償能力面臨重大考驗。 台灣在保險監理方面如同日本、美國採行風險基礎資本額（RBC）制度，惟國際間位處高度地震風險潛勢之國家大都另建立一套地震保險監理機制，以確保保險公司的巨災準備金足以支付回歸期地震所造成的損失，其中以美國加州及加拿大政府均採用地震保險PML申報制度作為地震保險監理之依據最值得台灣學習。 地震保險PML評估可採用CRESTA Zone平均損失幅度表計算或採用認許的地震風險評估電腦軟體推估獲得，實施的關鍵為主管機關應建立具有公信力的CRESTA Zone平均損失幅度表。本文特就二種評估方式的利弊做深入的比較分析，並藉由地震風險評估軟體的架構說明影響地震保險PML的因素與權重，作為保險公司落實地震風險管理之依據。 本研究參考Solvency II的三大支柱提出建立地震保險監理機制之結論與建議如下： 1.鼓勵建立保險公司的地震風險管理機制。 2.公佈CRESTA Zone平均損失幅度表，作為保險公司地震保險PML申報依據，以落實產物保險業之地震保險監理機制。 3.依據保險公司申報資料，提供保險主管機關實施差異化管理之依據。 4.主動揭露經營績效、強化保險市場紀律，建立公平合理的經營環境。 期待藉由建立適當的地震保險監理機制，減輕或消弭產物保險市場面臨自由化的惡性價格競爭與保險經營面的不合理現象，進而達到健全保險經營環境、促進保險業長期穩定發展，並確保社會大眾之保險權益的目標。 關鍵詞：地震保險監理機制、地震保險PML、巨災準備金、風險基礎資本額、地震風險評估軟體 / Located at the Pacific Rim earthquake zone, Taiwan has been recognized as one of the severe seismic hazard areas in the world. With the bloom of high tech industry in the past two decades, the demand of earthquake insurance has been considerably increasing. However, along with the liberalization of insurance market, the new business model of financial holdings and the expanding influence from international brokers, insurance companies’ solvency capacity has been significantly challenged. Taiwanese Government, same as Japan and U.S., adopts Risk-Based Capital (RBC) method in insurance supervision, while most countries with high earthquake potential have set up independent earthquake insurance supervision systems to ensure insurers’ earthquake reserves capable to compensate the huge earthquake losses. Among all the measures, the PML reporting system adopted by Canada and the State of California to regulate and trace insurance companies’ financial statuses could be an adequate paradigm for Taiwan. The PML estimation could be obtained either using computer models or following default mean damage ratio table. This research compares the strength and weakness between these two methods, and presents the importance of parameters and key points in earthquake insurance management. Based on the three pillars of Solvency II, the conclusions and recommendations of this paper are: (1)Encourage insurance companies to build up the earthquake risk management mechanism; (2)Establish the official default mean damage ratio table for PML reporting system; (3)Adopt differential supervision practice to different level insurance companies; (4)Promote the self-disclosure of key business information and enhance market discipline. Establishing a sound earthquake insurance supervision system would not only ease the immoderate low-price competition but the whole insurance environment could also be stabilized and improved. It will ultimately achieve the objective to insure society liability and benefit the public as well. Keywords: Earthquake Insurance, Earthquake Model, Catastrophic Risk Management, Insurance Supervision, Risk-Based Capital, CRESTA Zone, PML