台灣由於特殊的地理位置，所以地震、颱風等巨災所造成之損失時有所聞。這些巨災除造成交通、農業等經濟損失，更造成人員傷亡、房屋倒塌，也在每個人心中都刻畫難以抹滅的傷痛。為了因應這些巨災帶來的損失，台灣政府撥出許多補助費用予死傷及失蹤人民或其家屬，也提供某些房屋損失的補助。巨災不只危害個人，也同樣衝擊政府財政。 本文以台灣的地震風險為研究對象，並將地震損失劃分為經濟損失與財政損失。經濟損失泛指因地震所造成之一切直接損失，財政損失係指政府因災後所需之賑災與重建經費。因此本文不僅考慮地震所帶來的直接損失，同時也涵蓋政府對於災後的各項補助措施，以完整描述地震全面性的影響範圍。除描述地震整體影響外，本文另設計三種政府預算保險（比例式、自負額、給付最高額度與自負額並行等）作為風險管理機制。模擬說明有無風險管理機制輔助之下對地震損失所帶來之影響及其差異，可從中分析此保險的成本和效益。 本文主要使用國家地震工程研究中心提供之一般建築物損失資料表，輔以中央政府各主管機關對於其下轄業務範圍內之損失統計年報，從中取得因地震所造成之損失統計資料，例如傷亡與失蹤人數、房屋倒塌數、交通損失以及農業損失等，來建立損失模型。損失模型之建立係以模擬出之一般建築物損失為基礎，用迴歸分析評估其與其他損失之相關性，再建立其他損失模型。 本文之分析說明政府若能落實巨災風險管理，將產生極大的利益，在減少社會經濟損失方面尤為顯著。巨災風險管理是正面且必要之事，無論是住宅地震保險基金或政府預算保險，依初始規劃角度來看，政府皆扮演風險管理者的角色。 / Taiwan is usually hit and hurt by some natural catastrophes several times in a year due to its special location. Natural catastrophes brought not only losses of personal properties, agricultural products, and infrastructures but also casualties that brought painful, lasting feelings. In order to deal with the losses caused by natural catastrophes, Taiwan government released significant amount of consolation money for the dead, missing, and injured people. The government also compensate for some house losses. Catastrophes affect not only the private sector economy but also the public finance. This paper focuses on the impacts of the earthquake risk on economic losses and public finance losses of Taiwan. The economic losses include all reported losses while the public finance losses reflect the expenses paid for the post-disaster need, including disaster relief and reconstruction. Considering both the economic losses and public finance losses give us a better-informed picture about the consequences of natural catastrophes. After establishing the models for various types of losses, we analyze how government budget insurances can mitigate the natural catastrophe risks. We employ simulations to display the differences in the loss distributions with and without the insurance. The costs and benefits of the insurance can then be analyzed. Our model of the earthquake risk is based upon the scenario output generated by a model of the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering of Taiwan. We coupled the scenarios and official statistics on the earthquake losses to construct the building loss model. The models for other types of losses are then established using regression analyses. The above analyses demonstrate how the risk management on natural catastrophes taken by the government can benefit Taiwan. The benefits on the economic losses of the society are particularly apparent. Catastrophe risk management is positive and necessary. The Taiwan Residential Earthquake Insurance Fund and government budget insurance are the measures for the risk manager - the government.

因台灣全島具有許多地震斷層，各處均有可能發生地震，又大型地震易伴隨之地震變動，常有斷層、山崩、地裂、地盤隆起、陷沒、崩崖、噴沙、噴泥、土壤液化、井水變化之情形發生。地震所造成之損失相當嚴重，若僅賴政府之事後救濟，將造成納稅人及國家沉重之財政負荷，相形之下，使人民事前投保地震保險，共同分散損失，乃較佳選擇。有鑑於位於高地震風險地區之國家，例如，位於「環太平洋地震帶」之日本、紐西蘭、美國加州，及位於「歐亞地震帶」之土耳其等，均陸續發展地震保險制度，故本論文欲藉各國地震保險制度，探討我國目前住宅地震保險制度之完善性。 本論文以此為主題，探討之內容包含地震風險是否具可保性、政府是否應介入地震保險市場、綜合天災保險之可行性、地震保險保費釐定之考量因素、是否應強制投保地震保險、強制承保之必要性、目前之投保方式是否構成違法之搭售行為、及理賠標準之爭議等問題，於論文最後並提出相關條文之修正建議。 / Earthquakes occur frequently in Taiwan, and they always lead to catastrophic losses. If the government invests more taxpayer dollars into ex post compensation, it will be unfair to other taxpayers. For insurance plays an important role in the modern societies. It can successfully distribute the risks ex ante and contribute to make societies more stable. So this paper introduces Earthquake Insurance to solve the problem, discusses the topic from different aspects, and does a comparative research on legislation between America, Japan, New Zealand, Turkey and Taiwan. The outline of this paper discusses the insurability, the ways of risk management, the need of government intervention, whether to introduce mandatory insurance, the coverage extent the insurer can provide, and how to determine the premium. At the last of this paper, the author also raises some suggestions of Insurance Law.

台灣位處環太平洋地震帶，為全球地震風險潛勢較高的地區之一；因台灣高科技產業蓬勃發展，地震保險需求殷切，再加上開放保險費率自由化的政策及金控效應，趨使保險業間競爭白熱化，惡性價格競爭及保險經紀人的推波助瀾，保險公司的清償能力面臨重大考驗。 台灣在保險監理方面如同日本、美國採行風險基礎資本額（RBC）制度，惟國際間位處高度地震風險潛勢之國家大都另建立一套地震保險監理機制，以確保保險公司的巨災準備金足以支付回歸期地震所造成的損失，其中以美國加州及加拿大政府均採用地震保險PML申報制度作為地震保險監理之依據最值得台灣學習。 地震保險PML評估可採用CRESTA Zone平均損失幅度表計算或採用認許的地震風險評估電腦軟體推估獲得，實施的關鍵為主管機關應建立具有公信力的CRESTA Zone平均損失幅度表。本文特就二種評估方式的利弊做深入的比較分析，並藉由地震風險評估軟體的架構說明影響地震保險PML的因素與權重，作為保險公司落實地震風險管理之依據。 本研究參考Solvency II的三大支柱提出建立地震保險監理機制之結論與建議如下： 1.鼓勵建立保險公司的地震風險管理機制。 2.公佈CRESTA Zone平均損失幅度表，作為保險公司地震保險PML申報依據，以落實產物保險業之地震保險監理機制。 3.依據保險公司申報資料，提供保險主管機關實施差異化管理之依據。 4.主動揭露經營績效、強化保險市場紀律，建立公平合理的經營環境。 期待藉由建立適當的地震保險監理機制，減輕或消弭產物保險市場面臨自由化的惡性價格競爭與保險經營面的不合理現象，進而達到健全保險經營環境、促進保險業長期穩定發展，並確保社會大眾之保險權益的目標。 關鍵詞：地震保險監理機制、地震保險PML、巨災準備金、風險基礎資本額、地震風險評估軟體 / Located at the Pacific Rim earthquake zone, Taiwan has been recognized as one of the severe seismic hazard areas in the world. With the bloom of high tech industry in the past two decades, the demand of earthquake insurance has been considerably increasing. However, along with the liberalization of insurance market, the new business model of financial holdings and the expanding influence from international brokers, insurance companies’ solvency capacity has been significantly challenged. Taiwanese Government, same as Japan and U.S., adopts Risk-Based Capital (RBC) method in insurance supervision, while most countries with high earthquake potential have set up independent earthquake insurance supervision systems to ensure insurers’ earthquake reserves capable to compensate the huge earthquake losses. Among all the measures, the PML reporting system adopted by Canada and the State of California to regulate and trace insurance companies’ financial statuses could be an adequate paradigm for Taiwan. The PML estimation could be obtained either using computer models or following default mean damage ratio table. This research compares the strength and weakness between these two methods, and presents the importance of parameters and key points in earthquake insurance management. Based on the three pillars of Solvency II, the conclusions and recommendations of this paper are: (1)Encourage insurance companies to build up the earthquake risk management mechanism; (2)Establish the official default mean damage ratio table for PML reporting system; (3)Adopt differential supervision practice to different level insurance companies; (4)Promote the self-disclosure of key business information and enhance market discipline. Establishing a sound earthquake insurance supervision system would not only ease the immoderate low-price competition but the whole insurance environment could also be stabilized and improved. It will ultimately achieve the objective to insure society liability and benefit the public as well. Keywords: Earthquake Insurance, Earthquake Model, Catastrophic Risk Management, Insurance Supervision, Risk-Based Capital, CRESTA Zone, PML

九二一大地震發生之後，社會上對於住宅地震保險之需求日增。社會輿論與學術界也呼籲政府應建構一套適宜我國國情之住宅地震保險制度。經過政府官員、學者以及產險業界等代表之討論、規劃，我國終於民國九十年四月一日實施住宅地震保險。此一住宅地震保險制度並非完全補償民眾所面臨之地震危險，其僅係提供一基本保障，使得民眾能降低其所面臨之地震風險並且讓政府財政不致因地震而造成沈重負擔。我國住宅地震保險制度實施至今已逾四年，其中住宅地震保險共保及危險承擔機制相關法規於民國九十四年十二月一日以及九十五年十二月廿九日有所修正。惟雖現行制度因前次修正而稍完善，然細究住宅地震保險制度之相關法規內容，仍可見有所爭議之處。本文乃先予探述地震之成因、地震所致之災害類型以及透過保險制度分散地震風險可能面臨之問題，期能對地震風險有一概略之認識。此外，本文亦提出近期美國加州、日本以及紐西蘭等先進國家之住宅地震保險制度之運作概況，期能就我國住宅地震保險制度有缺失時，能作為一參考依據並更新現行文獻未更新之處。而本文重點即係探究我國住宅地震保險制度之相關之法律問題，期能為住宅地震保險制度之完善盡棉薄之力。