A estimativa acurada do fluxo de calor radiativo na região próxima à chama do tipo jato não pré-misturada é necessária para garantir a segurança de pessoas e equipamentos em caso de vazamentos ou processo de descarte na indústria de petróleo e gás. A simulação computacional dos fenômenos físicos envolvidos na transferência de calor e combustão do processo tem alto custo computacional. No presente trabalho é apresentado um estudo para o emprego do modelo de múltiplas fontes ponderadas para a estimativa do fluxo de calor radiativo no campo próximo à chama. O modelo matemático simplificado tem baixo custo computacional e consiste em representar a transferência de calor radiativa por fontes pontuais distribuídas no eixo central da chama. Cada fonte tem um peso proporcional à contribuição de cada região discretizada da chama na transferência de calor por radiação. Para determinar o peso de cada fonte foi utilizada a análise inversa pelo método da Otimização Extrema Generalizada, no qual o fluxo de calor é dado de entrada enquanto o peso de cada fonte é dado de saída. Como dado de entrada foi utilizado o fluxo de calor radiativo medido experimentalmente de um conjunto de 12 chamas, com potência entre 0,139 e 0,554 kW. A análise inversa foi utilizada para recuperar os pesos, e a fração radiante, que geram o fluxo de calor radiativo com maior compatibilidade com os dados experimentais em três abordagens. A primeira abordagem consiste em aplicar a análise inversa em cada chama separadamente, e depois de obtidos os pesos correlaciona-los com a potência da chama. Na aplicação do método em cada chama individualmente, o desvio máximo do resultado do modelo com os dados experimentais é de 5%. Em uma segunda abordagem, foi utilizada a análise inversa para obter diretamente os coeficientes de uma função entre os pesos do modelo e a potência da chama e seu comprimento estimado, o desvio máximo encontrado é de 18,6%. Na terceira abordagem, a análise inversa foi utilizada novamente para encontrar os coeficientes da função que correlaciona a potência da chama com parâmetros do modelo, e neste caso foi utilizado o comprimento experimental da chama para posicionar as fontes pontuais. Para o caso em que sete fontes foram posicionadas a 2,25 vezes o comprimento da chama medido experimentalmente, o desvio máximo observado foi de 8,6% e o desvio médio de 2,9%. / The accurate approximation of radiative heat flux on non-premixed flame in the region adjacent to the flame is required to guarantee the staff and machinery safety on oil and gas industry in cases of fuel leaking or disposal process. The physical phenomena involved on heat transfer and combustion has high computational cost in numerical simulation, in accidental leaking cases it is prohibitive. In the present study it is presented an application of Weighted Multi-Point Sources model to predict the radiative heat flux in the region adjacent to the flame. The simplified mathematical model has low computational cost and simulates the radiative heat transfer by punctual sources placed at the flame axis. Each source has the weight proportional to heat transfer contribution by each flame portion. To set each source's weight, it was used the inverse analysis by the Generalized Extremal Optimization. In inverse analysis the radiative heat fluxes are the input data while the weight of each source is the sought variable. As input data are used the radiative heat fluxes measured from a set of 12 flames, with power between 0.139 and 0.554 kW. The inverse analysis was used to recover the weights, and the fraction of heat radiated, which generate radiative heat fluxes with greater compatibility with the experimental data on three approaches. The first approach is to apply the inverse analysis in each flame separately, obtain the weights and then correlates them with the flame power. In method application for each flame, the maximum deviation between model outcome and experimental data was less than 5%. In a second approach, it was used the inverse analysis to directly obtain the coefficients of a function between the model's parameters and the flame’s power. When used just the flame power as model input parameter to distributes the sources and predict the heat flux, the maximum deviation is 18.6%. In the third approach, the inverse analysis was again used to find the coefficients of the function which correlates the flame power with model parameters, in this case was used the experimental flame length for positioning the point sources. For the case in which seven sources are positioned at 2.25 times the experimental length of the flame, the maximum deviation observed was 8.6% and the mean deviation of 2 9%.

Orientador: Jose Luiz Antunes de Oliveira e Sousa / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-07T20:17:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Almeida_LuizCarlosde_D.pdf: 2783638 bytes, checksum: 47822aa8fa42d03820ad07cb23b721a2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 / Resumo: Esse trabalho pretende contribuir para a interpretação do comportamento de estruturas de concreto a partir da utilização de técnicas de análise inversa. Estas técnicas permitem a determinação consistente dos diversos parâmetros envolvidos em seus modelos matemáticos, tomando-se por base a observação de estruturas de concreto. A utilização desses procedimentos permite a identificação de parâmetros envolvidos no cálculo de deformações e deslocamentos das estruturas de concreto armado. Para este fim foi desenvolvido um programa computacional para identificação desses parâmetros integrando a análise via elementos finitos e a minimização da função erro estabelecida entre as variáveis calculadas e as medidas. O programa foi testado com dados de ensaios e modelos teóricos, para materiais com comportamento elástico linear isotrópico ou ortotrópico, embora o método de estimativas de parâmetros, de forma iterativa e incremental, seja também aplicável a problemas com não-linearidades. Neste trabalho o método é aplicado também para ajustes de modelos de fluência em concreto. Apresentam-se, por último, a relevância do sistema desenvolvido, bem como algumas perspectivas para complementações futuras / Abstract: This work is intended to contribute to the interpretation of concrete structures using inverse analysis techniques. These techniques allow a consistent determination of the several parameters involved in the mathematical models, starting from the observation of concrete structures. The use of these procedures led to the identification of the parameters involved in the computation of strains and displacements of reinforced concrete structures. For this, a computational program has been developed to identify the parameters, integrating the finite element analysis and the minimization of the error between computed and observed variables. The program has been validated with test data and theoretical models for linear elastic, isotropic or anisotropic materials, although the parameter estimation method is applicable also to nonlinear problems. In this work, the method is applied also to fit creep models for concrete. The main conclusions and perspectives for future development are presented. / Doutorado / Engenharia de Estruturas / Doutor em Engenharia Civil

[pt] Para uma melhor previsibilidade e gerenciamento de reservatórios de hidrocarbonetos é necessário estabelecer modelos constitutivos adequados para representar o comportamento mecânico e hidráulico desses materiais. Durante a produção de hidrocarbonetos, ocorre um aumento das tensões efetivas devido à redução de pressão de poros. Isto pode levar à redução do espaço poroso do reservatório, podendo chegar ao colapso de poros. A compactação dos reservatórios é consequência da alteração do estado de tensões, que produzem deformações elásticas e plásticas, levando eventualmente à ruptura da rocha. Sabe-se que a resistência dos carbonatos está relacionada à porosidade, mineralogia e arranjo dos grãos. Sendo que este tipo de rocha, geralmente, tem um comportamento elastoplástico com características anisotrópicas. O uso de modelos constitutivos avançados é necessário para reproduzir o complexo comportamento de tensão-deformação-permeabilidade das rochas carbonáticas. Os modelos elastoplásticos isotrópicos Lade-Kim e Cam Clay Modificado com Coesão (CCMC), são usados neste trabalho para tentar representar o comportamento geomecânico do travertino; rocha análoga a uma das fácies do Pré-Sal brasileiro. Parâmetros destes modelos para este tipo de rochas dificilmente são encontrados na literatura, sendo sua determinação dependente de ensaios de laboratório cuidadosamente realizados. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo contribuir com o estabelecimento de modelos adequados para representar o comportamento geomecânico da rocha carbonática travertino em função da porosidade. Como parte do presente trabalho foi desenvolvido um modelo anisótropico denominado CALK, baseado no modelo isotrópico de Lade-Kim. Além disso ensaios triaxiais a compressão, hidrostáticos e compressão uniaxial foram realizados em amostras da rocha carbonática travertino com diferentes orientações das camadas em relação ao eixo axial das amostras (paralelo, Beta = 90 graus; ortogonal, Beta = 0 grau; e inclinado, Beta = 45 graus). Os resultados dos ensaios foram usados para estabelecer parâmetros dos modelos constitutivos Lade-Kim e CCMC. O processo de retroanálise foi utilizado, incorporando o algoritmo Lade-Kim, desenvolvido em MATLAB 2017 e FORTRAN 90 nos algoritmos DREAM e MINPACK, respectivamente. Os resultados obtidos indicam que a metodologia proposta e o modelo CALK é capaz de representar adequadamente, o comportamento mecânico do travertino observado em laboratório. / [en] For better predictability and management of hydrocarbon reservoirs it is necessary to establish adequate constitutive models to represent the mechanical and hydraulic behavior of these materials. During the production of hydrocarbons, an increase in effective stresses occur due to the reduction of pore pressure. This can lead to a reduction in the pore space of the reservoir and may lead to pore collapse. The compaction of the reservoirs is a consequence of the alteration of the state of stress, which produce elastic and plastic deformations, eventually leading to failure of the rock. It is known that the resistance of the carbonates is related to the porosity, mineralogy and arrangement of the grains. Since this type of rock usually has an elastoplastic behavior with anisotropic characteristics. The use of advanced constitutive models is necessary to reproduce the complex stress-strainpermeability behavior of sedimentary rocks. The Lade-Kim and Modified Cam Clay with Cohesion (CCMC) isotropic models are used in this work to try to represent the geomechanical behavior of travertine; a rock analogous to one of the Brazilian Pre-Salt facies. Parameters of these models for these type of rocks are seldom found in the literature, and their determination depends on carefully performed laboratory tests. The present work aims to contribute with the establishment of adequate models to represent the geomechanical behavior of travertine carbonate as a function of porosity. As a part of the present work an anisotropic model called CALK was developed, based on the isotropic model of Lade-Kim. In addition, triaxial compression, hydrostatic and uniaxial compression tests were performed on travertine carbonate samples with different orientations of the layers in relation to the axial axis of the samples ( parallel, Beta = 90 degrees , orthogonal, Beta = 0 degrees and inclined, Beta = 45 degrees) The results of the tests were used to establish parameters of the constitutive models Lade-Kim and CCMC. The retro-analysis process was used, incorporating the Lade-Kim algorithm, developed in MATLAB 2017 and FORTRAN 90, to the DREAM and MINPACK algorithms, respectively. The results indicate that the proposed methodology and the CALK model are able to adequately represent the mechanical behavior of the travertine observed in the laboratory.

Dans le cadre du projet de recherche de l'IFSTTAR « Approche performantielle et probabiliste de la durée de vie des ouvrages en béton armé », la thèse porte sur la modélisation du transport couplé ions-humidité au travers de bétons éventuellement carbonatés. Une plate-forme de modélisation multi-espèces, qui est basée sur les indicateurs de durabilité et avec différents niveaux de sophistication, a été utilisée. En condition saturée, le transport des ions a été décrit par l'équation de Nernst-Plank et complété par des isothermes des interactions ions/matrice. En condition non saturée, l'advection des phases liquides et gazeuses a été décrite par la loi de Darcy généralisée. L'influence de l'activité chimique sur l'équilibre entre l'eau liquide et vapeur d'eau, ainsi que la cinétique de fixation des ions chlorure ont été prise en compte dans les modèles. La fixation des ions alcalins a été également prise en compte, son influence sur le transport des ions chlorure a été étudiée. Les indicateurs de durabilité (porosité, perméabilité intrinsèque à l'eau et aux gaz) servant comme données d'entrée des modèles ont été déterminés par des mesures directes sur des bétons à base de ciment ordinaire et avec des fortes teneurs en additions minérales (cendres volantes et laitiers). Une méthode d'analyse inverse a été mise en œuvre à partir d'une routine qui intègre un algorithme d'optimisation qui nous a permis de déterminer les propriétés des matériaux plus complexes (coefficient effectif de diffusion, paramètres d'isotherme de fixation et perméabilité intrinsèque à l'eau) à partir des résultats d'essais. Le modèle pour des conditions saturées a été validé par des comparaisons entre des profils de chlorure issus des essais de diffusion et des profils de simulation. Des essais de séchage-imbibition avec une solution saline ou de l'eau pure sur les bétons sains et éventuellement carbonatés ont été réalisés pour valider le modèle en condition non saturée, ainsi que pour mettre en évidence l'influence de la carbonatation sur le transport des ions et sur les transferts hydriques. Outre la compréhension des mécanismes physico-chimiques liés à la durabilité des bétons et détermination des indicateurs de durabilité par analyse inverse, la plate-forme nous permet de prédire le transport des ions et d'humidité suivant la complexité des phénomènes et le niveau de sophistication exigé. Les études menées ont mise en évidence la pertinence et la fiabilité de la plate-forme de modélisation physico-chimique / As a part of the IFSTTAR's research project « Performance-based and probabilistic approach to the life cycle of reinforced concrete structures », this thesis focuses on the modelling of coupled ion-moisture transport through concrete which is possibly carbonated. A multi-species modelling platform, based on durability indicators and with different levels of sophistication, was used. In saturated conditions, ion transport was described by the Nernst-Plank equation and complemented by ion-matrix interaction isotherms. In unsaturated conditions, the advection of liquid and gas was described by the extended Darcy law. The influence of the chemical activity on the equilibrium between liquid water and water vapor, as well as the kinetics of the chloride binding, were included. The binding of alkali was also taken into account and its influence on the chloride penetration was investigated. As input data of the models, conventional durability indicators (porosity, intrinsic permeability for liquid water and for gas) were determined by direct measurement on different concretes made of ordinary Portland cement and containing high contents of supplementary cementing materials (fly ash and slag). An inverse method was implemented thanks to a routine which incorporates an optimization algorithm, allowing us to determine some complex properties (such as effective diffusion coefficient, binding isotherm parameters and intrinsic permeability to liquid water) from experimental results. The model for saturated conditions was validated by comparing the simulation results to experimental profiles obtained from chloride diffusion tests. Wetting tests, with saline solution or pure water followed by drying experiments, on sound concrete and possibly carbonated ones were led to verify the model for unsaturated conditions, as well as to highlight the influence of carbonation on the ion and moisture transport.In addition to a further understanding on the physico-chemical mechanisms related to the durability of concrete and the identification of durability indicators by inverse analysis, the platform allowed us to predict the transport of ions and moisture according to the complexity of the involved phenomena and the required level of sophistication. The relevance and the reliability of the modeling platform for transport were proved by the studies carried out

Une capsule est une goutte de liquide enveloppée par une membrane fine et déformable. Les propriétés mécaniques de la membrane sont essentielles pour le mouvement de la capsule. L’analyse de l’écoulement d’une suspension de capsules dans un canal microfluidique au moyen d’un modèle mécanique est une technique permettant de déterminer les propriétés élastiques de la membrane. Un modèle numérique tridimensionnel a été développé pour résoudre ce problème d’interaction fluide-structure en écoulement confiné. Il couple une méthode des intégrales de frontières pour les écoulements des fluides et une méthode éléments finis pour la déformation de la membrane. Le modèle est utilisé pour étudier l’écoulement d’une capsule initialement sphérique dans des canaux de différentes sections. Dans un canal cylindrique, on montre que l’effet de confinement du canal conduit à la compression de la capsule. Cela engendre la formation de plis sur la membrane autour de l’axe de l’écoulement, phénomène également observé expérimentalement. Dans un canal de section carrée, les effets de la loi constitutive de la membrane, du rapport de taille et du débit d’écoulement sur la déformation de la capsule sont systématiquement étudiés. La comparaison entre les résultats expérimentaux et numériques nous permet de déduire les propriétés mécaniques de la membrane d’une population de capsules artificielles. Ce travail démontre la faisabilité de la mesure de propriétés mécaniques d’une membrane en utilisant une technique microfluidique en canal carré. Il pourrait être étendu par l’étude d’écoulements instationnaires dans un canal de section variable ou avec bifurcations. / A capsule is a liquid droplet enclosed by a thin and deformable membrane. The membrane mechanical properties are critical for the deformation and motion of capsules. The flow of a capsule suspension through a microfluidic channel with dimensions comparable to those of the suspended particles can be used to infer the membrane elastic properties. However a mechanical model of the process is necessary. We present a three-dimensional numerical model to simulate such fluid-structure interaction problem. We use a novel numerical model that couples a boundary integral method for the internal and external fluid flows and a finite element method for the membrane deformation. The model is applied to study the flow of an initially spherical capsule in channels with different cross-sections. In a cylindrical channel with circular cross-section, we show that the confinement effect leads to the compression of the capsule in the hoop direction. The membrane tends to buckle and to fold as observed experimentally. In a microfluidic channel with a square cross-section, the effects of the membrane constitutive law, size ratio and flow strength on the capsule deformation are systematically studied. The comparison between experimental and numerical results allows us to deduce the membrane mechanical properties of a population of artificial capsules. The present work shows that it is possible to measure the membrane mechanical properties by using a microfluidic channel with a square cross-section. It can be extended to unsteady capsule flows in a channel with variable cross-sections or bifurcations.

Diese Dissertation beschreibt die Entwicklung und Anwendung des Klimawirkungsmoduls des ICLIPS-Modells, eines integrierten Modells des Klimawandels ('Integrated Assessment'-Modell). Vorangestellt ist eine Diskussion des gesellschaftspolitischen Kontexts, in dem modellbasiertes 'Integrated Assessment' stattfindet, aus der wichtige Anforderungen an die Spezifikation des Klimawirkungsmoduls abgeleitet werden. <br /> <br /> Das 'Integrated Assessment' des Klimawandels umfasst eine weiten Bereich von Aktivitäten zur wissenschaftsbasierten Unterstützung klimapolitischer Entscheidungen. Hierbei wird eine Vielzahl von Ansätzen verfolgt, um politikrelevante Informationen über die erwarteten Auswirkungen des Klimawandels zu berücksichtigen. Wichtige Herausforderungen in diesem Bereich sind die große Bandbreite der relevanten räumlichen und zeitlichen Skalen, die multifaktorielle Verursachung vieler 'Klimafolgen', erhebliche wissenschaftliche Unsicherheiten sowie die Mehrdeutigkeit unvermeidlicher Werturteile. Die Entwicklung eines hierarchischen Konzeptmodells erlaubt die Strukturierung der verschiedenen Ansätze sowie die Darstellung eines mehrstufigen Entwicklungsprozesses, der sich in der Praxis und der zu Grunde liegenden Theorie von Studien zur Vulnerabilität hinsichtlich des Klimawandels wiederspiegelt. <br /> <br /> 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle des Klimawandels sind wissenschaftliche Werkzeuge, welche eine vereinfachte Beschreibung des gekoppelten Mensch-Klima-Systems enthalten. Die wichtigsten entscheidungstheoretischen Ansätze im Bereich des modellbasierten 'Integrated Assessment' werden im Hinblick auf ihre Fähigkeit zur adäquaten Darstellung klimapolitischer Entscheidungsprobleme bewertet. Dabei stellt der 'Leitplankenansatz' eine 'inverse' Herangehensweise zur Unterstützung klimapolitischer Entscheidungen dar, bei der versucht wird, die Gesamtheit der klimapolitischen Strategien zu bestimmen, die mit einer Reihe von zuvor normativ bestimmten Mindestkriterien (den sogenannten 'Leitplanken') verträglich sind. Dieser Ansatz verbindet bis zu einem gewissen Grad die wissenschaftliche Strenge und Objektivität simulationsbasierter Ansätze mit der Fähigkeit von Optimierungsansätzen, die Gesamtheit aller Entscheidungsoptionen zu berücksichtigen. Das ICLIPS-Modell ist das erste 'Integrated Assessment'-Modell des Klimawandels, welches den Leitplankenansatz implementiert. <br /> <br /> Die Darstellung von Klimafolgen ist eine wichtige Herausforderung für 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle des Klimawandels. Eine Betrachtung bestehender 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle offenbart große Unterschiede in der Berücksichtigung verschiedener vom Klimawandel betroffenen Sektoren, in der Wahl des bzw. der Indikatoren zur Darstellung von Klimafolgen, in der Berücksichtigung nicht-klimatischer Entwicklungen einschließlich gezielter Anpassungsmaßnahmen an den Klimawandel, in der Behandlung von Unsicherheiten und in der Berücksichtigung von 'singulären' Ereignissen. 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle, die auf einem Inversansatz beruhen, stellen besondere Anforderungen an die Darstellung von Klimafolgen. Einerseits muss der Detaillierungsgrad hinreichend sein, um Leitplanken für Klimafolgen sinnvoll definieren zu können; andererseits muss die Darstellung effizient genug sein, um die Gesamtheit der möglichen klimapolitischen Strategien erkunden zu können. Großräumige Singularitäten können häufig durch vereinfachte dynamische Modelle abgebildet werden. Diese Methode ist jedoch weniger geeignet für reguläre Klimafolgen, bei denen die Bestimmung relevanter Ergebnisse in der Regel die Berücksichtigung der Heterogenität von klimatischen, naturräumlichen und sozialen Faktoren auf der lokalen oder regionalen Ebene erfordert. <br /> <br /> Klimawirkungsfunktionen stellen sich als die geeignetste Darstellung regulärer Klimafolgen im ICLIPS-Modell heraus. Eine Klimawirkungsfunktion beschreibt in aggregierter Form die Reaktion eines klimasensitiven Systems, wie sie von einem geographisch expliziten Klimawirkungsmodell für eine repräsentative Teilmenge möglicher zukünftiger Entwicklungen simuliert wurde. Die in dieser Arbeit vorgestellten Klimawirkungsfunktionen nutzen die globale Mitteltemperatur sowie die atmosphärische CO2-Konzentration als Prädiktoren für global und regional aggregierte Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf natürliche Ökosysteme, die landwirtschaftliche Produktion und die Wasserverfügbarkeit. Die Anwendung einer 'Musterskalierungstechnik' ermöglicht hierbei die Berücksichtigung der regionalen und saisonalen Muster des Klimaänderungssignals aus allgemeinen Zirkulationsmodellen, ohne die Effizienz der dynamischen Modellkomponenten zu beeinträchtigen. <br /> <br /> Bemühungen zur quantitativen Abschätzung zukünftiger Klimafolgen sehen sich bei der Wahl geeigneter Indikatoren in der Regel einem Zielkonflikt zwischen der Relevanz eines Indikators für Entscheidungsträger und der Zuverlässigkeit, mit der dieser bestimmt werden kann, gegenüber. Eine Reihe von nichtmonetären Indikatoren zur aggregierten Darstellung von Klimafolgen in Klimawirkungsfunktionen wird präsentiert, welche eine Balance zwischen diesen beiden Zielen anstreben und gleichzeitig die Beschränkungen berücksichtigen, die sich aus anderen Komponenten des ICLIPS-Modells ergeben. Klimawirkungsfunktionen werden durch verschiedene Typen von Diagrammen visualisiert, welche jeweils unterschiedliche Perspektiven auf die Ergebnismenge der Klimawirkungssimulationen erlauben.<br /> <br /> Die schiere Anzahl von Klimawirkungsfunktionen verhindert ihre umfassende Darstellung in dieser Arbeit. Ausgewählte Ergebnisse zu Veränderungen in der räumlichen Ausdehnung von Biomen, im landwirtschaftlichen Potential verschiedener Länder und in der Wasserverfügbarkeit in mehreren großen Einzugsgebieten werden diskutiert. Die Gesamtheit der Klimawirkungsfunktionen wird zugänglich gemacht durch das 'ICLIPS Impacts Tool', eine graphische Benutzeroberfläche, die einen bequemen Zugriff auf über 100.000 Klimawirkungsdiagramme ermöglicht. Die technischen Aspekte der Software sowie die zugehörige Datenbasis wird beschrieben. <br /> <br /> Die wichtigste Anwendung von Klimawirkungsfunktionen ist im 'Inversmodus', wo sie genutzt werden, um Leitplanken zur Begrenzung von Klimafolgen in gleichzeitige Randbedingungen für Variablen aus dem optimierenden ICLIPS-Klima-Weltwirtschafts-Modell zu übersetzen. Diese Übersetzung wird ermöglicht durch Algorithmen zur Bestimmung von Mengen erreichbarer Klimazustände ('reachable climate domains') sowie zur parametrisierten Approximation zulässiger Klimafenster ('admissible climate windows'), die aus Klimawirkungsfunktionen abgeleitet werden. Der umfassende Bestand an Klimawirkungsfunktionen zusammen mit diesen Algorithmen ermöglicht es dem integrierten ICLIPS-Modell, in flexibler Weise diejenigen klimapolitischen Strategien zu bestimmen, welche bestimmte in biophysikalischen Einheiten ausgedrückte Begrenzungen von Klimafolgen explizit berücksichtigen. Diese Möglichkeit bietet kein anderes intertemporal optimierendes 'Integrated Assessment'-Modell. Eine Leitplankenanalyse mit dem integrierten ICLIPS-Modell unter Anwendung ausgewählter Klimawirkungsfunktionen für Veränderungen natürlicher Ökosysteme wird beschrieben. In dieser Analyse werden so genannte 'notwendige Emissionskorridore' berechnet, die vorgegebene Beschränkungen hinsichtlich der maximal zulässigen globalen Vegetationsveränderungen und der regionalen Klimaschutzkosten berücksichtigen. Dies geschieht sowohl für eine 'Standardkombination' der drei gewählten Kriterien als auch für deren systematische Variation. <br /> <br /> Eine abschließende Diskussion aktueller Entwicklungen in der 'Integrated Assessment'-Modellierung stellt diese Arbeit mit anderen einschlägigen Bemühungen in Beziehung. / This thesis describes the development and application of the impacts module of the ICLIPS model, a global integrated assessment model of climate change. The presentation of the technical aspects of this model component is preceded by a discussion of the sociopolitical context for model-based integrated assessments, which defines important requirements for the specification of the model.<br /> <br /> Integrated assessment of climate change comprises a broad range of scientific efforts to support the decision-making about objectives and measures for climate policy, whereby many different approaches have been followed to provide policy-relevant information about climate impacts. Major challenges in this context are the large diversity of the relevant spatial and temporal scales, the multifactorial causation of many climate impacts', considerable scientific uncertainties, and the ambiguity associated with unavoidable normative evaluations. A hierarchical framework is presented for structuring climate impact assessments that reflects the evolution of their practice and of the underlying theory.<br /> <br /> Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are scientific tools that contain simplified representations of the relevant components of the coupled society-climate system. The major decision-analytical frameworks for IAMs are evaluated according to their ability to address important aspects of the pertinent social decision problem. The guardrail approach is presented as an inverse' framework for climate change decision support, which aims to identify the whole set of policy strategies that are compatible with a set of normatively specified constraints (guardrails'). This approach combines, to a certain degree, the scientific rigour and objectivity typical of predictive approaches with the ability to consider virtually all decision options that is at the core of optimization approaches. The ICLIPS model is described as the first IAM that implements the guardrail approach.<br /> <br /> The representation of climate impacts is a key concern in any IAM. A review of existing IAMs reveals large differences in the coverage of impact sectors, in the choice of the impact numeraire(s), in the consideration of non-climatic developments, including purposeful adaptation, in the handling of uncertainty, and in the inclusion of singular events. IAMs based on an inverse approach impose specific requirements to the representation of climate impacts. This representation needs to combine a level of detail and reliability that is sufficient for the specification of impact guardrails with the conciseness and efficiency that allows for an exploration of the complete domain of plausible climate protection strategies. Large-scale singular events can often be represented by dynamic reduced-form models. This approach, however, is less appropriate for regular impacts where the determination of policy-relevant results generally needs to consider the heterogeneity of climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors at the local or regional scale.<br /> <br /> Climate impact response functions (CIRFs) are identified as the most suitable reduced-form representation of regular climate impacts in the ICLIPS model. A CIRF depicts the aggregated response of a climate-sensitive system or sector as simulated by a spatially explicit sectoral impact model for a representative subset of plausible futures. In the CIRFs presented here, global mean temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration are used as predictors for global and regional impacts on natural vegetation, agricultural crop production, and water availability. Application of a pattern scaling technique makes it possible to consider the regional and seasonal patterns in the climate anomalies simulated by several general circulation models while ensuring the efficiency of the dynamic model components.<br /> <br /> Efforts to provide quantitative estimates of future climate impacts generally face a trade-off between the relevance of an indicator for stakeholders and the exactness with which it can be determined. A number of non-monetary aggregated impact indicators for the CIRFs is presented, which aim to strike the balance between these two conflicting goals while taking into account additional constraints of the ICLIPS modelling framework. Various types of impact diagrams are used for the visualization of CIRFs, each of which provides a different perspective on the impact result space.<br /> <br /> The sheer number of CIRFs computed for the ICLIPS model precludes their comprehensive presentation in this thesis. Selected results referring to changes in the distribution of biomes in different biogeographical regions, in the agricultural potential of various countries, and in the water availability in selected major catchments are discussed. The full set of CIRFs is accessible via the ICLIPS Impacts Tool, a graphical user interface that provides convenient access to more than 100,000 impact diagrams developed for the ICLIPS model. The technical aspects of the software are described as well as the accompanying database of CIRFs.<br /> <br /> The most important application of CIRFs is in inverse' mode, where they are used to translate impact guardrails into simultaneous constraints for variables from the optimizing ICLIPS climate-economy model. This translation is facilitated by algorithms for the computation of reachable climate domains and for the parameterized approximation of admissible climate windows derived from CIRFs. The comprehensive set of CIRFs, together with these algorithms, enables the ICLIPS model to flexibly explore sets of climate policy strategies that explicitly comply with impact guardrails specified in biophysical units. This feature is not found in any other intertemporally optimizing IAM. A guardrail analysis with the integrated ICLIPS model is described that applies selected CIRFs for ecosystem changes. So-called necessary carbon emission corridors' are determined for a default choice of normative constraints that limit global vegetation impacts as well as regional mitigation costs, and for systematic variations of these constraints.<br /> <br /> A brief discussion of recent developments in integrated assessment modelling of climate change connects the work presented here with related efforts.

In last decades, fibre reinforcement is widely used in many countries as ad-ditive for concrete and cement mortar mixture for production of structures. Fibre reinforcement applications in Lithuania are often restricted to production of concrete floor for different purposes. Whereas, in other countries (USA, Japan, Germany and other) application area of fibre reinforcement is much wider, for example: bridge deck, thin-walled structures for special constructions (tunnels, reservoirs, etc), covering of roadway, airport landing strip, pipelines, pile foundation. Application of fibre reinforcement is considered as one of the most important development area of structural construction in the world. Fibre reinforcement significantly improves service properties of concrete. Fibre reinforcement does not have considerable influence on concrete compressive strength, however it significantly changes fracture characteristics of tensile concrete. Fracture of non-reinforced tensile concrete is brittle, whereas with fibre reinforcement–plastic. This is due to restraining of tensile deformations by distributed fibres. Fibre reinforcement influence on concrete member is more effective than bar reinforcement, as tensile deformations are restrained in the whole volume of tensile zone. Whereas, tensile deformations in a RC member are restrained in the specific interaction area of reinforcement and concrete. Main advantages of fibre reinforcement are slow crack propagation, greater tensile and... [to full text] / Jau kelis dešimtmečius plieno plaušas visame pasaulyje plačiai taikomas kaip priedas betono ir cementinio skiedinio mišiniams, naudojamiems statybinių konstrukcijų gamybai. Lietuvoje dispersinis armavimas dažniausiai naudojamas betonuojant įvairios paskirties pastatų grindis. Tuo tarpu, kitose pasaulio šalyse (JAV, Japonijoje, Vokietijoje ir kt.) dispersinė armatūra naudojama daug plačiau, pvz.: tiltų perdangoms, plonasienėms specialiųjų statinių (tunelių, rezervuarų ir t. t.) konstrukcijoms, kelių dangoms, oro uostų pakilimo takams, vamzdynams, poliniams pamatams ir t. t. Dispersinės armatūros taikymas visame pasaulyje laikoma viena iš prioritetinių statybinių konstrukcijų vystymosi sričių. Dispersinis armavimas neturi didesnės įtakos gniuždomajam betono stipriui, tačiau lemia visiškai skirtingą tempiamojo betono suirimo pobūdį. Nearmuoto tempiamojo betono suirimas yra trapus, tuo tarpu dispersiškai armuoto – plastinis. Tai lemia dispersiškai pasiskirsčiusio plaušo sukeliamas tempimo deformacijų suvaržymas. Dispersinio armavimo poveikis betoniniam elementui yra daug efektyvesnis nei strypinės armatūros, kadangi tempimo deformacijos varžomos visame tempiamosios zonos tūryje. Tuo tarpu klasikiniame gelžbetoniniame elemente tempimo deformacijos varžomos tik tam tikrame armatūros ir betono sąveikos plote. Lėtesnis plyšių vystymasis, didesnis atsparumas smūgiams ir nuovargiui bei plastiškumas yra pagrindiniai veiksniai, lemiantys dispersiškai armuotų gelžbetoninių konstrukcijų... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]

The purposes of this study are to investigate the possible effects of variables like testing depth, length to diameter ratio of the probe, presence of disturbed annulus around the borehole etc. on the derived parameters from the pressuremeter test, and to develop possible alternative methods for the determination of undrained shear strength of cohesive soils, and cohesion and internal friction angle of intermediate geomaterials. For this purpose numerical simulations of pressuremeter test were performed. In the study, it is also aimed to investigate the effect of rock quality designation (RQD) or some other rock mass parameters such as geological strength index (GSI) and rock mass rating (RMR) and intact rock strength on the deformation modulus determined from the pressuremeter test. To accomplish this task, Dikmen greywackes, weathered andesites and mudrocks exposed around Ankara - Sincan region were selected for field and laboratory studies. Empirical relationships using GSI, RMR, RQD were developed for the estimation of deformation modulus of greywackes and mudrocks cropping out around Ankara. Numerical simulations revealed the presence of disturbed annulus around the borehole causes underestimation of deformation modulus and overestimation of undrained shear strength. Test depth has no effect on the deformation modulus and undrained shear strength / the effect of length to diameter ratio of the probe on the deformation modulus is minor where as it causes overestimations of undrained shear strength. Pore pressure dissipation in low permeability soils around the pressuremeter was studied using numerical simulations. These analyses suggest that for permeabilities lower that 10-10 m/sec there is no pore pressure dissipation around the pressuremeter probe. It was determined that the inverse analysis yielded successful results for the determination of shear strength parameters of intermediate geomaterials.

Le procédé de rétreint fait partie de la famille des techniques de mise en forme sans enlèvement de matière. La déformation du lopin est obtenue par chocs successifs d'un ensemble de matrices disposées autour de la pièce. Ce procédé est généralement utilisé pour la réduction de section de tubes ou de barres. Dans un contexte industriel, la maîtrise des paramètres procédé et la compréhension des phénomènes sous-jacents est indispensable pour non seulement limiter le temps de développement de nouveaux produits mais aussi diminuer le nombre de rebus des références qui posent problème. L'objectif de la thèse est de répondre à ces attentes en exploitant les possibilités offertes par la simulation numérique. Dans un premier temps, les alliages étudiés ont été caractérisés mécaniquement. En effet grâce à des essais de traction et d'impact de Taylor et à l'emploi d'une méthode d'identification par analyse inverse, les paramètres de la loi d'écoulement de Johnson-Cook ont été déterminés. Dès lors différents modèles, utilisant le code Abaqus/Explicit, ont été mis en place (du 2D axisymétrique au 3D en passant des modèles en reprenant que le quart de la pièce) et la validation s'est faite grâce à des campagnes d'essais réalisés sur site. Enfin, un progiciel développé en C++ sera livré à l'industrie. Il intègre différentes fonctionnalités comme la prédiction des efforts de forge par calcul analytique. Tous ces outils numériques et analytiques ont permis de mieux comprendre le procédé en termes de chemin d'écoulement de la matière, de distribution des contraintes et déformations et de profil d'évolution d'évolution de l'effort tout au long de la mise en forme. ABSTRACT : The shrinking process is part of the family of formatting techniques without removing material. / The shrinking process is part of the family of formatting techniques without removing material.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-26T13:27:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.pdf: 1540836 bytes, checksum: fe50f3e6bd87c8fd128f4077e23bf1bc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-02-28 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The evaluation of geotechnical parameters based on field test data is a promising procedure in geotechnical engineering. The use of numerical methods and optimization techniques allow these estimates to be made of a less subjective way. In that sense, this dissertation aims to develop a computer program which uses the finite element method (FEM) to solve mechanical problems of static equilibrium in two-dimension and axisymmetric conditions, incorporating optimization processes to make inverse analyses of field tests. The dissertation begins with a literature review on topics relevant to the subject studied. Following, the load test analyzed is presented as well as the methodology used. Finally, results that validate the computer program developed and results of the inverse analysis of the load test are presented. It is concluded that the method worked quite adequately and improvements are suggested to be made in future works. / A avaliação de parâmetros geotécnicos com base em dados de ensaios de campo é um procedimento promissor em geotecnia. A utilização de métodos numéricos e técnicas de otimização permitem que estas estimativas sejam feitas de uma forma menos subjetiva. Nesse sentido, a presente dissertação visa desenvolver um programa computacional, que utiliza o método dos elementos finitos (MEF) para solucionar problemas mecânicos de equilíbrio estático em condições de deformação bidimensionais e axissimétricos incorporando processos de otimização para realizar análises inversas de ensaios de campo. Inicialmente, faz-se uma revisão bibliográfica sobre assuntos pertinentes ao tema. Em seguida, apresenta-se a prova de carga a ser analisada, bem como a metodologia a ser usada. Por fim, apresentam-se resultados que validam o programa computacional desenvolvido e, em seguida, resultados da análise inversa de uma prova de carga. Conclui-se que a metodologia adotada teve bom êxito e sugerem-se aperfeiçoamentos a serem incorporados em trabalhos futuros.