Due to the complexities of modern military operations and the technologies employed on today's military systems, acquisition costs and development times are becoming increasingly large. Meanwhile, the transformation of the global security environment is driving the U.S. military's own transformation. In order to meet the required capabilities of the next generation without buying prohibitively costly new systems, it is necessary for the military to evolve across the spectrum of doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, and facilities (DOTMLPF). However, the methods for analyzing DOTMLPF approaches within the early acquisition phase of a capability-based assessment (CBA) are not as well established as the traditional technology design techniques. This makes it difficult for decision makers to decide if investments should be made in materiel or non-materiel solutions. This research develops an agent-based constructive simulation to quantitatively assess doctrine alongside materiel approaches. Additionally, life-cycle cost techniques are provided to enable a cost-effectiveness trade. These techniques are wrapped together in a decision-making environment that brings crucial information forward so informed and appropriate acquisition choices can be made. The methodology is tested on a future unmanned aerial vehicle design problem. Through the implementation of this quantitative methodology on the proof-of-concept study, it is shown that doctrinal changes including fleet composition, asset allocation, and patrol pattern were capable of dramatic improvements in system effectiveness at a much lower cost than the incorporation of candidate technologies. Additionally, this methodology was able to quantify the precise nature of strong doctrine-doctrine and doctrine-technology interactions which have been observed only qualitatively throughout military history. This dissertation outlines the methodology and demonstrates how potential approaches to capability-gaps can be identified with respect to effectiveness, cost, and time. When implemented, this methodology offers the opportunity to achieve system capabilities in a new way, improve the design of acquisition programs, and field the right combination of ways and means to address future challenges to national security.

Post-Cold War military conflicts have highlighted the need for a flexible, agile joint force responsive to emerging crises around the globe. The 2005 Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS) acquisition policy document mandates a shift away from stove-piped threat-based acquisition to a capability-based model focused on the multiple ways and means of achieving an effect. This shift requires a greater emphasis on scenarios, tactics, and operational concepts during the conceptual phase of design and structured processes for technology evaluation to support this transition are lacking. In this work, a methodology for quantitative technology evaluation for systems-of-systems is defined. Physics-based models of an aircraft system are exercised within a hierarchical, object-oriented constructive simulation to quantify technology potential in the context of a relevant scenario. A major technical challenge to this approach is the lack of resources to support real-time human-in-the-loop tactical decision making and technology analysis. An approach that uses intelligent agents to create a "Meta-General" capable of forecasting strategic and tactical decisions based on technology inputs is used. To demonstrate the synergy between new technologies and tactics, surrogate models are utilized to provide intelligence to individual agents within the framework and develop a set of tactics that appropriately exploit new technologies. To address the long run-times associated with constructive military simulations, neural network surrogate models are implemented around the forecasting environment to enable rapid trade studies. Probabilistic techniques are used to quantify uncertainty and richly populate the design space with technology-infused alternatives. Since a large amount of data is produced in the analysis of systems-of-systems, dynamic, interactive visualization techniques are used to enable "what-if" games on assumptions, systems, technologies, tactics, and evolving threats. The methodology developed in this dissertation is applied to a notional Long Range Strike air vehicle and system architecture in the context of quantitative technology evaluation for the United States Air Force.