We analyze the interaction between monetary policy in the US and the global economy proposing a new class of Bayesian global vector autoregressive models that accounts for time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-GVAR). Our results suggest that US monetary policy responds to shocks to the global economy, in particular to global aggregate demand and monetary policy shocks. On the other hand, US-based contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to persistent international output contractions and a drop in global inflation rates, coupled with rising interest rates in advanced economies and a real depreciation of currencies with respect to the US dollar. We find considerable evidence for heterogeneity in the spillovers across countries, as well for changes in the transmission of monetary policy shocks over time. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Using confidential corporate income tax return data, this paper investigates the association between book-tax non-conformity (measured as book-tax differences) and tax-loss carryforwards (TLCFs). I find that TLCFs are positively associated with temporary and permanent book-tax differences. Only firms with positive pre-tax book income and negative taxable income (double-picture firms) drive the positive association between TLCFs and temporary book-tax differences. Conversely, the positive association of TLCFs and permanent book-tax differences is present for double-picture firms and the remaining firms. The results suggest that double-picture firms, which feature high TLCFs compared to their size and to the remaining firms, use temporary book-tax differences to report a lower taxable income than pre-tax book income. Thus, this paper contributes to the understanding of the drivers of rising TLCFs. This is important, as offsetting TLCFs against future profits jeopardizes a country's tax revenue. (author's abstract) / Series: WU International Taxation Research Paper Series

This paper uses micro-level data from a nationally representative survey of 22,000 individuals in 14 Eastern European countries to investigate the effects of institutional, social, and individual factors on taxpayers' perceptions of power, motivations to comply, and non-compliant behaviors. The results indicate that institutional, social, and individual aspects shape taxpayer behavior: attitudes of peers, individual compliance norms, and the tax burden impact on non-compliance. Moreover, I find several effects of the subjective appraisal of the interaction with tax administrations. Positive experiences strengthen perceptions of power and intrinsic motivations to comply. They also increase the propensity to report non-compliant behavior in the past, suggesting educational effects of taxpayer services and tax audits. (author's abstract) / Series: WU International Taxation Research Paper Series

This paper empirically tests a theory laid out in Scholes et al. (2015, p. 315) that the U.S. worldwide tax system reduces the incentive of U.S. parent companies to be tax aggressive in their foreign subsidiaries. Investors subject to a worldwide tax system pay taxes on their worldwide income, regardless of the origin thereof. Therefore, a U.S. investor pays the difference between the effective tax payment abroad and the higher U.S. statutory tax when profits are repatriated. In contrast, investors subject to territorial tax systems gain the full tax savings from being tax aggressive abroad. Our results show that U.S.-owned foreign subsidiaries have a by 1.2 percentage point higher average GAAP effective tax rate (ETR) compared to subsidiaries owned by foreign investors from countries with a territorial system. We contribute to the literature by showing a mechanism, other than cross-country profit shifting, why U.S. multinational companies have higher GAAP ETRs than multinationals subject to territorial tax systems. (authors' abstract) / Series: WU International Taxation Research Paper Series

This paper investigates the relationship between countries' fiscal balances and current accounts with an emphasis on the role of fiscal rules. The direct effect of fiscal policy on the current account via aggregate (import) demand is potentially amplified by indirect effects, materializing through interest rate effects and inter-generational transfers that reduce savings. On the other hand, the implied positive relation between fiscal and external balances is potentially attenuated by offsetting changes in savings through Ricardian equivalence considerations. We expect this attenuation effect to be stronger in countries with more stringent fiscal rules and test this hypothesis using a panel of 73 countries over the period 1985-2012. As previous studies we find a positive effect of fiscal balances on the current account, supporting the twin deficit hypothesis. However, the effect of fiscal balances on the current account depends on the stringency of fiscal (budget balance or debt) rules in place; it is reduced by one third on average and virtually eliminated for countries with the most stringent fiscal rules. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Preschool attendance is widely recognized as a key ingredient for later socioeconomic success, mothers' labor market participation, and leveling the playing field for children from disadvantaged backgrounds. However, the empirical evidence for these claims is still relatively scarce, particularly in Europe. Using data from the 2011 Austrian European Union Statistics of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), we contribute to this literature in all mentioned dimensions. In particular, we investigate the effect of preschool attendance on an individual's later educational attainment, the probability that they work full time and their hourly wages, the likelihood of the mother working when the child is 14 years old, and on the overall distribution of wages. We find strong and positive effects of preschool attendance on educational attainment, the probability of working full time, hourly wages, and the probability that the mother is in the labor market. Full time workers at the bottom and the top of the distribution tend to benefit less than those in the middle. Women in particular benefit more in terms of years of schooling and the probability of working full time. Other disadvantaged groups (second migration migrants; people with less educated parents) also often benefit more in terms of education and work. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

We introduce the tractable buffer stock savings setup of Carroll (2009 NBER Working Paper) into an otherwise conventional New-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions. The introduction of a precautionary saving motive arising from an uninsurable risk of permanent income loss, affects the model's properties in a number of interesting ways: it produces a more hump-shaped reaction of consumption in response to both supply (technology) and demand (monetary) shocks, and more pronounced reactions in response to demand shocks. Adoption of the buffer stock savings setup thus offers a more microfounded way, compared to, e.g., habit preferences in consumption, to introduce Keynesian features into the model, serving as a device to curbing excessive consumption smoothing, and to attributing a higher role to demand driven fluctuations. We also discuss steady state effects, determinacy properties as well as other practical issues. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

We use the labor force ad hoc module "transition from work into retirement" to analyze the link between individual as well as pension system characteristics and planned retirement age within the European Union. We find that timing of retirement is correlated between partners who are, already at the stage of retirement planning. In richer countries of the EU15, standard retirement age seems to have a larger effect on planned retirement age than in poorer EU15 states or in new EU member states. The effect of pension wealth is largest in the new EU member states and smallest in rich EU15 countries. Furthermore, industry and occupation effects differ by country type. (authors' abstract)

We estimate cost functions to derive productivity growth using a unique database on costs and outputs of essentially all regulated Austrian gas distribution companies over the period 2002-2013, covering the times before and after the introduction of incentive regulation in 2008. We estimate a concave relation between total costs and time, and a significant one-off but permanent reduction in real costs after an imposed reduction in granted costs in the course of the introduction of incentive regulation. Our results imply that technological opportunities were higher in the early years of the sample than in later years, and that productivity growth grinded to a halt from 2008 on. We conclude that technological opportunities are exhausted (for the time being) in the Austrian gas distribution sector giving rise to an optimal general X factor (X-gen) of zero for the foreseeable future. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Using hourly data, we show that the convergence of German and French electricity spot prices depends on the employed generation mix structure, on the trade (export/import) capacity between the two countries, and on characteristics of neighbouring markets. Only when German and French electricity markets employ "similar" generation mixes price spreads vanish, and the likelihood for congestion of electricity flows is significantly reduced. This implies that, at least, a part of the convergence that was documented in recent literature is spurious, because it is not (only) driven by the forces of arbitrage, but by the similarity of the Generation structures. The direction of congestion matters in this regard. Furthermore, we document consistent evidence for the most important predictions of trade theory if markets are characterized by increasing marginal cost (i.e. supply) curves and limited cross-border capacities. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series