Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Graduate School of Business Administration, 2013. / The capital structure theory was pioneered by Modigliani and Miller (1958). In their study, Modigliani and Miller (1958) argued that capital structure was irrelevant to firm value. There is also significant theory on the capital structure of firms and its determinants. Using a panel of non-financial firms listed on the JSE Securities Exchange, we investigate the relevance of capital structure on firm value and investigate the capital structure of firms in South Africa. The results of the analysis on the relevance of capital structure on firm value indicated that there is no statistically significant relationship between firm value and the capital structure of firms. This analysis was conducted for the general sample of firms in the study, within industries and by firm size, however, the results were consistent throughout all the analysis. The results of the capital structure and its determinants analysis indicated that South African firms followed a pecking order theory. The results also indicated that profitability, size, asset tangibility and tax shield has a statistically significant relationship to gearing or the firm’s capital structure. The analysis of the South African firms’ capital structure indicated that firms in South Africa tend to use more long-term debt than short-term debt. The leverage ratios also differed among industries with the Health care industry having the highest levels of leverage and the Technology industry having the lowest levels of leverage.

This study investigates the capital structure practices of companies listed on the JSE by analysing their operating performance before and after significant leverage events defined as increases or decreases of more than 30% in a year. We develop a performance scorecard that acts as a complete synopsis of firm performance on aspects relating to leverage. We use a fixed effects regression on unbalanced panel data to test the relationship between the leverage change and 12 concurrent performance variables selected on the basis of their pre-established impact on firm leverage according to prior studies. We also test the relationship between the leverage change and the same set of performance variables five years before and five years after the event. We run a multiple discriminant analysis to test the predictive ability of our model. A 20% hold-out sample achieves a 48% correct classification rate.

Thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management in Finance & Investment in the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management Wits Business School at the University of the Witwatersrand 2017 / There are 29 formal stock exchanges on the African continent with 23 based in sub-Saharan Africa. The pace and stage of stock market development has varied among most of the countries as only four stock markets have more than 50 listed stocks; five have at least 20 listed stocks; and the remaining 14 have less than 20 stocks. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) stands out in Africa as by far the continent’s largest, most liquid and best regulated market and is home to some of the continent’s largest and most sophisticated companies. Cross listing refers to the listing of ordinary shares of a firm on an exchange other than the stock exchange in its registered jurisdiction. There are 24 JSE listed companies that have cross listed on other Sub-Saharan African stock exchanges. The bulk of these, (14), have cross listed on the Namibia Stock Exchange, 3 cross listed on Botswana Stock Exchange, 1 on the Nairobi Stock Exchange, 1 on the Ghanaian Stock Exchange, 3 on the Malawian Stock Exchange, 1 on the Zambian Stock Exchange and 1 on the Zimbabwean Stock Exchange. The study establishes the possible reasons and benefits of cross listing on other sub-Saharan exchanges for JSE listed companies. The study also provides insight into the possible effects, (financial as well as any others), of cross listing on other sub-Saharan African exchanges that a number of JSE listed entities have experienced. The study uses financial information collected from a public platform, (Sharedata), to compute financial ratio’s to determine the financial implications of the JSE companies cross listing on other sub-Saharan exchanges. The effects of cross listing on the JSE companies are then measured using latent growth curve modelling and a paired t test. The study concludes that there is no evidence to suggest that there are financial benefits for JSE listed companies to cross list on other sub-Saharan exchanges. The study further suggests that JSE listed companies should rather consider cross listing for qualitative reasons rather for any quantitative reasons. / MT2017

A research report presented in partial fulfilment (50%) of the requirements for the degree of Master of Commerce in Business Economics (Finance) in the School of Economic and Business Sciences at the University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 6 October 2017 / This study tests the efficacy of the liquidity variables of Liu (2006) in determining the existence of a liquidity premium on the South African market and finds evidence of a significant liquidity effect. This factor is determined to be robust and to proxy for a different underlying effect than the Fama-French (1992) effects and the market risk premium. The analysis is performed through portfolio sorts and tests for difference of portfolio means, as well as both a univariate and multivariate regression analysis. The sample period covers 16 years from 2000 to 2015. The relationship between size and liquidity is clear, however liquidity is found to be separate from the size effect. This study recommends the use of a liquidity-augmented model for the analysis of asset returns in South Africa. / GR2018

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Commerce in Finance. Johannesburg, South Africa March 2016 / The study examined whether: share repurchase events and changes in dividends were good predictors of future changes in earnings. The research also investigated how the South African market reacted to share repurchase events in the short-run. Using INET BFA, data for 226 dividend paying companies and 55 share repurchasing companies, trading on the JSE during the period 2003 to 2013, was collected. Dividend theory suggests that changes in dividends convey information content about the future earnings of the firm. After testing this theory, limited support was found for this notion. Firms that had increased dividends at (T0) showed significant earnings increases in that year. Nonetheless, some of the dividend increasing firms showed no subsequent unexpected earnings growth at (T1) and (T2). While the size of the dividend increase had a strong positive relationship with current earnings; it failed to predict future earnings with any consistency. Firms that had cut dividends at (T0) experienced a reduction in earnings in that year but showed increases in earnings at (T1). However, consistent with Lintner‘s (1956) model on dividend policy, firms that had increased their dividends were less likely to experience a reduction in earnings, as opposed to the no-change or dividend decrease groups. A linear regression model was employed in testing whether share repurchases were useful in predicting changes in future earnings. According to the results reported in the regression model, share repurchases are a good predictor of future changes in earnings. The study at hand then went on to explore how the South African market reacted to share repurchases. Through the utilisation of the Market Model-Event Study Methodology (with an event window of 41 days, 20 days prior and 20 days post the event), the findings of the report indicated that the South African market reacted positively to share repurchases. This was evidenced through positive: share price returns, abnormal returns and average abnormal returns, post the event. Nonetheless, cumulative average abnormal returns remained negative in the short-run. In addition, the results showed that firms engage in share repurchase activities in order to signal that the stock is undervalued. There was an observable trend of declining share prices before the share repurchase event. A few recommendations were proposed following the results obtained. Dividends are unable to predict changes in earnings. Therefore, a dividend cut, is not an indication that a company‘s earnings will decrease in the future or that the managers of that company foresee a decline in future earnings. From a share repurchase point of view, managers of JSE listed companies should not only focus on the short-term benefits of share repurchase events. These benefits are generally short lived as shares do return to their falling state, however authors such as Wesson, Muller and Ward (2014) have shown that the benefits of share repurchase events can also be observed in the long- run, A further point to note for both investors and managers of JSE listed companies is that share repurchases are a good predictor of future earnings. Therefore, it is very confusing for investors when a company announces a share repurchase event but does not follow through with it. / MT2017

There is a widespread view amongst private investors and public investment corporations that socially responsible investing leads to substandard returns relative to Conventional investing. Conventional portfolios are portfolios with sin stocks or lowly ranked stocks in terms of the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors whilst Socially responsible Investments (SRI) are portfolios with stocks regarded as socially desirable with high ESG rankings. We constructed two portfolios using the JSE stocks and the Bloomberg rankings in accordance with the ESG rankings guidelines. As an additional analysis, we also assessed the performances of the JSE socially responsible index, JSE TOP 40 and the FTSE JSE ALL SHARE. Using different performance measures such as the CAPM, Fama French, Carhart 4 factor model, Sharpe ratio, and Treynor ratio; we found interesting evidence contrary to the beliefs of many investors. No statistically significant difference in performance is found between our self-constructed portfolios, and the different indexes such as JSE SRI, JSE TOP 40 and the FTSE JSE indexes. We have separated beliefs from reality/ facts in this paper that socially conscious investors can perform well in South Africa.

Listed property entities on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange fall under the category of ‘Financials - Real Estate’. There are four types of property entities that a prospective investor can consider namely: Property Unit Trusts, Property Loan Stock Companies, Real Estate Holding and Development Companies and Real Estate Investment Trusts. The listed property sector allows investors to enter the property investment market in a uniquely affordable and secure way without the added risk, expense and administration that comes with direct property investment. This study evaluates the investment performance of the various property fund types through the implementation of Jensen’s alpha, the Sharpe ratio and Treynor ratio in an effort to establish whether there is a significant difference in the returns that can be obtained from the diverse funds given the associated risks. An analysis of the total returns and standard deviation of the property industry shows that the real estate market is affected by changes that take place in the macro economy. It is also investigated whether there is a differential risk associated with investing in these funds. We find that there is no significant difference between the performances of the various funds and there is no differential level of risk associated with investing in the property funds. An analysis of the fluctuation of total returns and standard deviation of the property funds over the eleven year period shows that the property sector is affected by changes in economic conditions however the changes are not enough to cause colossal volatility. For instance, the global recession of 2008 had an impact on the property industry returns but the sector has since made a steady recovery.

No abstract on disk

Master of Commerce (Finance) in the Finance Division, School of Economic and Business Sciences at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 6 September 2017 / The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between market liquidity changes on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), and the market’s degree of efficiency. Market efficiency is characterised in terms of two philosophies: Fama’s (1970) Efficient Markets Hypothesis, and Shiller’s (1981; 2003) informational efficiency designation. Efficiency was tested using measures of return predictability, a random walk benchmark, and price volatility; liquidity was measured using market turnover. The tests were conducted on JSE Top 40 shares across three regimes, spanning January 2012 – June 2016. The regimes are demarcated by two structural breaks in the JSE’s microstructure: the 2012 trading platform upgrade, and the 2014 colocation centre launch. The results show that past order imbalances are a significant predictor of daily returns, although the significance of this predictability has dissipated over time. Return predictability is not influenced by liquidity. In fact, there is evidence that illiquidity weakens return predictability. Prices were closer to random walk benchmarks during the third regime. In consideration of informational efficiency, during the latter two regimes price volatility is greater during trading versus non-trading hours. This is coupled with an emergence of nonlinear return dependence, which is indicative of greater mispricing. Thus, over the three regimes, market efficiency improved in the sense of the EMH, but informational efficiency deteriorated. The study contributes to the field by: introducing an inverse measure of market efficiency; providing insight into the measure’s time variation and relation to liquidity; and demonstrating that market efficiency tests should incorporate its dual meanings, enabling richer understanding of their intersection. / GR2018

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Graduate School of Business Administration, 2013. / This study examines potential benefits of investing in various gold investment vehicles in terms of risk and return from a typical South African investor’s perspective. Furthermore, the study examines the relationship between gold price and South African macroeconomic variables. Data used in the study comprises of monthly closing share price data of JSE listed gold mining companies, gold price, Krugerrand coin, NewGold ETF, FTSE/JSE all share index, gold mining index, unit trust index (gold & precious metals), real GDP, rand/dollar exchange rate, repo rate and CPI. It was found that gold bullion produced superior abnormal returns and yielded greater capital growth compared to the JSE all share index. However, the JSE all share index exhibit lower volatility compared to gold bullion. Abnormal returns for JSE listed gold mining companies tend to differ substantially from gold bullion abnormal returns. Gold mining companies exhibit added risk which cannot be attributed to the gold bullion. Gold has a potential to reduce systematic risk when added to a portfolio of stocks. A multiple regression model was estimated which relates gold price to South African macroeconomic variables. It was found that gold price depends on real GDP and rand/dollar exchange rate.