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Dividend rules and accounting issues relating to the payment of dividends in South AfricaVoogt, Thea Louisa 24 August 2012 (has links)
M.Comm. / This study of dividend rules and accounting issues relating to the payment of dividends, has now reached its conclusion. All that remains is to put the study in the South African context and to reflect on a number of new topics that may be researched on the issue of dividends. In the 1950's and the 1960's, the South African economy grew at a rate of 4,5% per year, which was in line with many other western economies. During the 1 970's, the South African Government's role in the economy increased dramatically under a burgeoning bureaucracy. Slow economic growth over this decade and the 1980's, caused South Africa to fall further behind its major trading partners. High inflation, poor productivity, a high population growth rate and a shortage of skilled manpower was the resultant effect (Manning, 1988:14). The collapse of apartheid and the dawning of the New South Africa during the 1990's have brought with it its own opportunities and challenges. The South African economy's most pressing reality now is its own sheer economic survival. South Africa is currently battling with a staggering unemployment rate of 40%, suffering a budget deficit amounting to 5% of its R118 billion gross domestic product and must compete on world markets with nations like Brazil, Chile, South Korea and Indonesia (Ogden, 1996:49). The issues that need to be addressed'are undoubtedly immense. The question then has to be asked if and how a study on dividends can make a difference. The fact, however, remains that the proverbial drops eventually fill an empty bucket. There are certainly no short-cuts if the country is to make a successful transformation to full economic maturity (Ogden, 1996:49). Share investments and dividends received by individual investors could go a long way in introducing new participants into the equity market that is one of the pillars of the South African economy. Equity ownership in South Africa need to be democratized and filtered down to the individuals of all population groups and income levels in order to reduce ethnic conflict, reduce economic disparity of population groups and contribute to development (Nyhonyha & Braithwaite, 1 996:8). The majority of the population would, however, need assistance in this regard. The empowerment of these individuals through information would be the starting point as discussed in paragraph 9.9.3.1. Apart form the information and training that should be provided, these individuals would also need financial assistance in some form in order to invest in shares and receive dividends. Employee share incentive schemes could be a valuable tool that could provide the majority of the economically active South African population, who currently do not have access to equity capital, with the means of ownership of a portion of the economy (Nyhonyha & Braithwaite, 1996:8). Employee share incentive ownership programs are urgently needed in South Africa. The excessive concentration of economic power in the hands of a small minority must be addressed (Nyhonyha & Braithwaite, 1996:8). Individuals who have previously not taken part in the formal economy need to be empowered in this way. Employee share incentive schemes normally take on the form of a scheme in terms of section 38 (2) (b) and section 38 (2) (c) of the Act (South Africa, 1 973). Section 38 (2) (b) allows for a scheme through which a trust receives assistance from a company in the form of money, for the subscription for or purchase of shares. The trustees may then purchase shares in the company or its holding company. The trustees will hold the shares for the benefit of the employees of the company, including any salaried director holding a salaried employ or office in the company (South Africa, 1973). Section 38 (2) (c) allows for a company to provide financial assistance to persons, other than directors, bona fide in the employment of the company with a view to enabling those persons to purchase or subscribe for shares of the company or its holding company to be held by themselves as owners (South Africa, 1973). There are, however, other ways through which individuals may invest on the JSE. This study of dividends, focused on a number of problems that may be encountered by small individual investors and in particular black investors who intend to invest on the JSE. Paragraph 7.4.6.1. highlighted a number of problems that these investors face and noted that their discretionary savings may be limited. In South Africa, more than 50% of the black population earns less than R300 a month (Nyhonyha & Braithwaite, 1996:8). The savings of potential investors as individuals, however, need not be mobilized. Programs for future investment on the JSE, can target stokvels. Research has shown that about 8 million people in urban townships belong to stokvels, exchanging more than R900 million a year (Anon., 1996:4). The market capitalization of black controlled companies on the JSE is currently R7,78 billion (Kobokoane, 1996:3).
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Dividend payout and future earnings growth : a South African studyVermeulen, Marise 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MDF)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / In the past it was believed that the payment of dividends would decrease the funds available to finance growth, and would therefore lead to lower future earnings growth. This belief was challenged in recent years with research that tested the relationship between dividend payout and future earnings growth, both on the individual company and aggregate market level in different countries. The results contradicted popular belief, and showed that companies with high payout ratios tend to realise stronger future earnings growth. This study tested the same relationship in South Africa and concluded that even in a developing country, dividend payout will still lead to higher future earnings growth.
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Die rekeningkundige verantwoording van skripdividendskemas in Suid-AfrikaDurand, Ilanie 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MAcc)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Scrip dividends have become increasingly popular in South Africa SInce the
introduction of secondary tax on companies (STC) in the 1993 budget. There is more
than one approach to the treatment of scrip dividend schemes for accounting purposes,
i.e. the reinvestment approach and the capitalisation issue approach. Unfortunately
guidance in the form of a statement or guideline from the South African Institute of
Chartered Accountants has not been forthcoming.
Companies in the United States of America account for stock dividends (capitalisation
issues) in a variety of ways and several studies have analysed the effect of these
accounting treatments on retained earnings and the retained earnings hypothesis.
Several empirical studies in the United States of America and the United Kingdom
have documented marked differences in the ability of companies in these countries to
make distributions to shareholders. For this reason the accounting treatment of stock
dividends and scrip dividends in these countries was examined and compared to the
methods used in South Africa.
Earnings per share is often used by financial analysts to analyse and compare
companies. The methods used in South Africa to account for scrip dividends result in
different calculations of earnings per share and therefore the effect of the different
methods was examined.
This study concludes that the reinvestment approach is theoretically the most
acceptable accounting treatment of scrip dividend schemes In South Africa. A representative sample of companies which declared scrip dividends in the period 1993
to 1999 was selected to determine how these schemes are implemented in the South
African economy. These companies' financial statements were analysed to determine
if the scrip dividend schemes were treated in terms of the accounting method
proposed in this study and if the necessary information was disclosed in the financial
statements. This study finds that different accounting approaches are used in South
Africa, that earnings per share and secondary tax on companies are not calculated
consistently for accounting purposes and that the information disclosed to the users of
the financial statements differs from company to company. It is recommended that
the South African Institute of Chartered Accountants issue accounting guidelines to
the drafters of financial statements regarding scrip dividend schemes. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die verklaring van skripdividende het in Suid-Afrika in gewildheid begin toeneem
met die inwerkingstelling van sekondere belasting op maatskappye (SBM) in die
1993-begroting. Daar is meer as een metode om skripdividendskemas rekeningkundig
te verantwoord, naamlik die herbeleggingsbenadering en die kapitalisasieuitgiftebenadering.
Die Suid-Afrikaanse Instituut vir Geoktrooieerde Rekenmeesters
het egter op hierdie stadium nog nie 'n rekeningkundige standpunt of riglyn oor die
rekeningkundige verantwoording van skripdividendskemas uitgereik nie.
In die Verenigde State van Amerika kan maatskappye kapitalisasie-uitgifte op
verskillende maniere rekeningkundig verantwoord en verskeie studies het die invloed
ondersoek wat hierdie metodes op verdeelbare reserwes en die behoue wins-hipotese
het. Verder het studies wat in die Verenigde State van Amerika en die Verenige
Koningkryk gedoen is, bevind dat hierdie lande se beperkings op verdelings aan
aandeelhouers baie van mekaar verskil en om die rede is die metodes wat in die lande
toegepas word om kapitalisasie-uitgifte en skripdividendskemas rekeningkundig te
verantwoord, ondersoek en met die metodes vergelyk wat in Suid-Afrika toegepas kan
word.
Aangesien verdienste per aandeel dikwels deur finansiele ontleders gebruik word om
maatskappye te ontleed en met mekaar te vergelyk en omdat die metodes wat in Suid-
Afrika toegepas kan word verskillende berekeninge van verdienste per aandeel tot
gevoIg het, is die uitwerking wat die verskillende metodes op die berekening van
verdienste per aandeeI het ook ontleed.
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Are dividend changes and share repurchases a good predictor of future changes in earnings?Mtshali, Nompilo January 2016 (has links)
A research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Commerce in Finance. Johannesburg, South Africa March 2016 / The study examined whether: share repurchase events and changes in dividends were good predictors of future changes in earnings. The research also investigated how the South African market reacted to share repurchase events in the short-run. Using INET BFA, data for 226 dividend paying companies and 55 share repurchasing companies, trading on the JSE during the period 2003 to 2013, was collected.
Dividend theory suggests that changes in dividends convey information content about the future earnings of the firm. After testing this theory, limited support was found for this notion. Firms that had increased dividends at (T0) showed significant earnings increases in that year. Nonetheless, some of the dividend increasing firms showed no subsequent unexpected earnings growth at (T1) and (T2). While the size of the dividend increase had a strong positive relationship with current earnings; it failed to predict future earnings with any consistency. Firms that had cut dividends at (T0) experienced a reduction in earnings in that year but showed increases in earnings at (T1). However, consistent with Lintner‘s (1956) model on dividend policy, firms that had increased their dividends were less likely to experience a reduction in earnings, as opposed to the no-change or dividend decrease groups.
A linear regression model was employed in testing whether share repurchases were useful in predicting changes in future earnings. According to the results reported in the regression model, share repurchases are a good predictor of future changes in earnings. The study at hand then went on to explore how the South African market reacted to share repurchases. Through the utilisation of the Market Model-Event Study Methodology (with an event window of 41 days, 20 days prior and 20 days post the event), the findings of the report indicated that the South African market reacted positively to share repurchases. This was evidenced through positive: share price returns, abnormal returns and average abnormal returns, post the event. Nonetheless, cumulative average abnormal returns remained negative in the short-run. In addition, the results showed that firms engage in share repurchase activities
in order to signal that the stock is undervalued. There was an observable trend of declining share prices before the share repurchase event.
A few recommendations were proposed following the results obtained. Dividends are unable to predict changes in earnings. Therefore, a dividend cut, is not an indication that a company‘s earnings will decrease in the future or that the managers of that company foresee a decline in future earnings. From a share repurchase point of view, managers of JSE listed companies should not only focus on the short-term benefits of share repurchase events. These benefits are generally short lived as shares do return to their falling state, however authors such as Wesson, Muller and Ward (2014) have shown that the benefits of share repurchase events can also be observed in the long- run, A further point to note for both investors and managers of JSE listed companies is that share repurchases are a good predictor of future earnings. Therefore, it is very confusing for investors when a company announces a share repurchase event but does not follow through with it. / MT2017
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Cumulative factors : INET versus USBMadinga, Phillip Austin 03 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 1999. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This is a comparative study to determine the accuracy of the cumulative factors calculated and used by
INET and the University of Stellenbosch, Graduate School of Business (USB). These factors are
calculated whilst taking into account the changes in capital structure due to the effects of share splits
(splits), consolidations and capitalisation issues in the calculation of dividends per share (both interim
and final), and closing share prices.
For this purpose the data of 350 listed industrial companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange was
evaluated over a 28-year period (1970-1997). In cases where a company was delisted before the date of
the financial year-end 1997, that company was deleted from the study for the full period.
The analysis of share splits, consolidations and capitalisation issues in the calculation of a cumulative
factor for the determination of dividends per share and closing share prices, is therefore of critical
importance. It is important to the companies as well as parties who are involved in maintaining data of
listed companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. It is also important to those who use this data
for research purposes.
South African studies using dividends per share and share prices from INET or the USB assume that the
data is accurate. This study is an effort to verify the accuracy of the two mentioned databases. The results
of the study clearly suggest or indicate that there are indeed numerous inaccuracies (differences) between
the data kept by both INET and USB databases. It is therefore important that the data be revisited so that
these anomalies can be rectified. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie is 'n vergelykende studie om die akkuraatheid te bepaal van die kumulatiewe faktore soos deur
INET en die Universiteit van Stellenbosch se Nagraadse Bestuurskool (USB) bereken en gebruik.
Hierdie faktore word bereken om die effek van die onderverdeling en konsolidasie van aandele, asook
kapitalisasie-uitgifte op die dividend per aandeel (beide interim en finaal) en sluitingsaandeelpryse te
bepaal.
Vir hierdie doel was die data van 350 industriele maatskappye wat op die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs
genoteer is oor 'n 28-jaar periode (1970-1997) geevalueer. In gevalle waar die maatskappye voor die
finansiele jaareinde 1997 gedenoteer is, is die maatskappy uit die studie weggelaat.
Die analise van onderverdeling en konsolidasie van aandele en kapitalisasie-uitgifte in die berekening
van 'n kumulatiewe faktor vir die bepaling van dividend per aandeel en die sluitingsaandeelpryse, is van
kritiese belang. Dit is belangrik vir die maatskappye en ander belanghebbendes wat gemoeid is met die
instandhouding van data van genoteerde maatskappye op die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs. Dit is ook
van belang vir diegene wat die data vir navorsingsdoeleindes gebruik.
Suid-Afrikaanse studies wat op dividend per aandeel en aandeelpryse van INET of die USB gebaseer is,
veronderstel dat die data korrek is. Hierdie studie poog om die akkuraatheid van die genoemde twee
databasisse te verifieer. Die resultate van die studie toon duidelik aan dat daar 'n hele aantal
onakkuraathede (verskille) tussen die data onderhou deur beide INET en die USB bestaan. Dit is dus
belangrik dat die data weer ondersoek word ten einde verskille uit die weg te ruim.
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Investigation into the share price reaction to unexpected changes in cash dividends : empirical study on companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock ExchangeMjacu, Nceba Aubrey 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / Dividends are probable the most controversial subject in the finance literature.
Dividends are paid cent for cent from company profits. Besides having tax
implications on the company, they reduce sources of internal finance for the
company. On the other hand, the value of a company is the net present value of
cash flows. Theoretically a company that does not pay dividends now and at
anytime in the future has a value of zero. Companies have dividend policies
applicable to themselves. It is therefore valid to argue that the revision of the
dividend policy has an underlying reason. This study was done to investigate the
effect of unexpected dividend policy changes to daily share price movement. This
study seeks to establish the validity of the much-debated subject of information
significance of dividends. Past studies at most failed to converge to an agreement
on information significance of dividends.
The investigation revealed that there were no significant abnórmal returns earned
on the announcement date on three out of four instances. However the results of
the cumulative abnormal returns revealed that share prices react to dividend
changes during the period of investigation i.e. twenty days before and twenty days
after the announcement. The overall adjustment in share prices over the period
studied is in the same direction as the dividend charge.
The investigation also revealed that price adjustments take place before and after
the announcement date. Price adjustments on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange
were not efficient as compared to adjustments on the New York Stock Exchange.
Share price adjustments on the New York Stock Exchange took place during the
period of a day before and a day after the announcement. The lack of similarity
can be attributed to either sophistication of the market participants or efficiency of
the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.
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A study of dividends per share applied to companies de-listed from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange from 1970 to 2000Murumba, George 03 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / The objective of this mini study project is to record dividends of de-listed companies from
copies of Annual Reports. It forms part of a larger research project at the Graduate School
of Business of the University of Stellenbosch that aims at setting up a database containing
published financial information on dividends for listed and de-listed companies.
Dividends are a valuable source of information content. Recording, and thereafter
employing an analysis of basic descriptive statistics on dividends, is one way to decipher
such information. Calculating the average and median of dividends declared by companies
sheds an insight to the nature of dividend payout.
The purpose of the mini study project is to capture the interim, special, and final dividends
per share. The method employed is to calculate dividend values and to compare them
against those published. Total Rand values of dividends are calculated by multiplying the
number of shares issued, by the dividends declared in cents, per share as noted on the
directors' report, and notes to the income statement. This is achieved by means of an
Excel spreadsheet model.
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An empirical model of choice between share purchase and dividends for companies in selected JSE listed sectorsNicolene, Wesson 04 1900 (has links)
Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Share repurchases were allowed in South Africa as from 1 July 1999. The concept of repurchasing shares is therefore relatively new in this country, compared to many other countries (e.g. the United States of America and the United Kingdom), where it is an established practice. Considerable research in the field already exists, providing empirical evidence on the extent of share repurchase activities and current theoretical thinking on the motivations for share repurchases and the determinants affecting the choice of payout methods. In South Africa there are indications, as this study demonstrates, that research on payout methods and payout reform has become a matter of urgency.
Share repurchase activity by JSE-listed companies is not comprehensively recorded by South African financial data sources. Prior research on South African share repurchases is limited, mainly owing to the fact that a comprehensive share repurchase database is not available. This study sets out to document the extent of share repurchases by companies in selected JSE-listed sectors (for reporting periods including 1 July 1999 to the 2009 year-ends of the companies) and to test whether empirical evidence and current theoretical thinking also applied in South Africa. The results of these tests were used to develop a model to ascertain what the significant determinants were when a JSE-listed company had to decide between repurchasing shares and paying special dividends.
This study found that the South African regulatory environment pertaining to share repurchases differed from the regulatory environments of other countries. The main differences related to the share repurchase announcement structure (namely the JSE Listings Requirements that open market share repurchases need to be announced via SENS only once a 3% limit has been reached) and that subsidiaries are allowed to repurchase shares in the holding company (and have a tax benefit when compared to share repurchases made by the holding company itself). These differences affected the results of this study.
On compiling a database on share repurchases by companies in selected JSE-listed sectors, it was found that the share repurchase announcements (made via SENS) could not be used as the main source to compile comprehensive share repurchase data (mainly owing to the 3% rule on open market share repurchases). Annual report disclosures were therefore scrutinised to obtain share repurchase data for this study. These disclosures were found to be applied inconsistently by companies (mainly because subsidiaries were allowed to repurchase shares in the holding company; International Financial Reporting Standards and the JSE Listings Requirements did not adequately cater for the differing South African regulatory environment in their disclosure stipulations; and compliance to the disclosure requirements were not adequately monitored). Consequently, an extensive process of verification was applied in order to compile a comprehensive and reliable share repurchase database for this study.
When testing whether empirical evidence and current theoretical thinking on share repurchases also applied in South Africa, it was found that the unique South African regulatory environment led to certain aspects of the South African share repurchase experience not mirroring the global precedent.
The main differences between the South African and global share repurchase evidence which emerged from the present study are that the open market share repurchase type is not the outright favoured repurchase type (as is the case globally); that subsidiaries repurchasing shares in the holding company are the favoured South African share repurchasing entity (as opposed to subsidiaries not being allowed to repurchase shares in most other countries); and that share repurchases announced via SENS do not represent comprehensive share repurchase data (as opposed to global security exchanges requiring share repurchase announcements on a regular and accurate actual-time basis).
When testing the current theoretical thinking on the information-signalling motivation for share repurchases, it was found that the motivation for South African open market and pro rata share repurchases mirrored the current theoretical thinking. Open market share repurchases were found to be motivated by the information-signalling hypothesis, while the short-term abnormal returns of pro rata offers were offset by the negative abnormal returns over the long term. A share repurchase type unique to the South African share repurchase environment (namely the repurchase of treasury shares by the holding company) was found not to be motivated by the information-signalling hypothesis. This study also found that companies repurchasing shares were generally classified as value companies (which tend to be undervalued) prior to the repurchase transaction which mirrored the current theoretical thinking.
In developing a model of choice to determine what the main determinants were when a company had to decide between open market share repurchases and special dividends, this study found that some of the South African determinants mirrored the current theoretical thinking, but also identified determinants which were not identified as significant determinants in global research. This study found that ownership structure, size of the distribution and level of company undervaluation were the significant factors which affected a company’s choice of payout method. It was found that smaller companies, with fewer shareholders and more public investors favoured open market share repurchases over special dividends. Open market share repurchases were found to be selected for smaller distributions when compared to special dividends. Companies paying special dividends were found to exhibit lower degrees of undervaluation when compared to companies which repurchased shares in the open market.
This study found that share repurchases became a popular means of distributing excess cash as from 2005. A total amount of about R384 billion was spent on share repurchases during the reporting periods including 1 July 1999 to the 2009 year-ends of the companies included in the population of this study. Share repurchases did not exceed dividend payments over the target period and represented about 36 per cent of total payouts. In 2009, the final year of the study, share repurchases represented about 44 per cent of total payouts. The results of this study showed that investors would benefit over the long term when investing in companies which repurchased shares in the open market. It was also found that there were certain characteristics which were evident in companies when choosing open market share repurchases rather than special dividend payments.
This study concluded that the South African regulatory environment possesses many characteristics of a developing economy’s financial systems. Suggestions are given on how to improve and better align the South African repurchasing environment to those of developed economies.
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Dividend policy and corporate governance in emerging markets: the South African casePapo, Priscilla 25 August 2016 (has links)
University of the Witwatersrand
Wits Business School
Master of Finance and Investment (MMFI) / Using panel data analysis, this paper empirically examined the relationship between corporate governance and dividend payout for a sample of 109 firms listed on the JSE securities exchange over the period 2009-2013. The results show that board composition is positively related to dividend payout while institutional ownership is negatively related to dividend payout. Our findings also show a positive association between firm growth and dividend payout.
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An investigation into the extent to which a share price is influenced by earnings per share, dividends per share and cash flow per share of industrial companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock ExchangeMara-Tjingaete, Cashandra Candice 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research involves the study of the relationship between share prices,
earnings per share, dividends per share and cash flow per share. The aim is to
estimate the extent of the effect of earnings per share, dividends per share and
cash flow per share on share prices.
A sample of industrial companies, all listed on the Johannesburg Stock
Exchange is used. The sample includes 17 sectors, containing a total of 326
companies.
The data relating to these companies is sourced from the database of the
University of Stellenbosch Business School.
Twenty consecutive years of reported financial results are used. This includes (i)
share prices as at the company's year-end, (ii) earnings per share, (iii) dividends
per share and (iv) cash flow per share for the financial year.
The data for each individual company is arranged in three separate structures.
One structure, known as levels, is created using the data in their original form. A
second structure, first differences, is constructed using the annual changes in the
original data. The third structure, first difference percentages, is created using the
annual changes in the original data calculated as a percentage of the previous
year's figure. Several methods are used to analyse data, by way of statistical models known as
linear regression, multiple regression and stepwise regression, which is a
variation of multiple regression. Regression analysis is used in deterministic
models because the value of one variable is predicted on the basis of other
variables. Such models are called deterministic because they allow users of data
to determine the value of the dependent variable from the value of the
independent variable(s).
Linear regression is capable of calculating the relationship between variables,
which are dependent on each other and represents the dependency as a
percentage.
Multiple regression is a statistical model, which calculates and represents the
relationship between three or more variables as an equation. Multiple regression
is capable of calculating the relationship between the three or more variables
which are dependent on each other and represents the dependency as a
percentage.
The statistical models are applied to each company individually, based on the
three structures of the data. The conclusions of this research are based upon the
results of the dependency of the variables, calculated by the various statistical
models. The conclusions arrived at were that (1) the first differences structure is best
suited to this model, (2) by placing the data of individual companies together in
one pool, the problem of weighing each company was overcome, and (3) using
linear regression results together with the multiple and stepwise regression
results added value in terms of comparison of the accuracy of results.
A comparison was drawn between the findings of this study and those of
previous writers and is referred to in the text. Four researchers namely Strong,
Board and Day, Brown and Mara-Tjingaete, regressed the results of earnings
versus share price and produced R2 values of 12,8 percent, 13 percent, 7
percent and 7,8 percent respectively. Brown and Mara-Tjingaete found R2 results
of 14 percent and 0,6 percent respectively for dividends versus share price and
this study also produced an R2 result of 0,4 percent for cash flow versus share
price. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsing behels die studie van die verwantskap tussen aandeelpryse,
verdienste per aandeel, dividende per aandeel en kontantvloei per aandeel. Die
doel daarvan is om die uitwerking van verdienste per aandeel, dividend per
aandeel en kontantvloei per aandeel op aandeelpryse te bereken.
'n Steekproef van industriële maatskappye genoteer op die Johannesburgse
Effektebeurs is gebruik. Die steekproef strek oor 17 sektore en sluit 326
maatskappye in.
Die data van hierdie maatskappye is verkry van die databank van die Universiteit
van Stellenbosch Bestuurskool.
Twintig opeenvolgende jare se gepubliseerde finansiële state word in die
steekproef gebruik. Dit sluit in (i) aandeelpryse soos op die maatskappye se
finansiële jaareinde, (ii) verdienste per aandeel, (iii) dividende per aandeel en (iv)
kontantvloei per aandeel vir die finansiële jaar.
Die data vir elke maatskappy is in drie verskillende strukture gerangskik. Een
struktuur, bekend as vlakke, is geskep deur die data in hulle oorspronklike vorm
te gebruik. 'n Tweede struktuur, eerste verskille, is saamgestel deur die jaarlikse
verandering in die oorspronklike data te gebruik. Die derde struktuur, eerste verskille-persentasies, is geskep deur die jaarlikse veranderinge in die
oorspronklike data, bereken as 'n persentasie van die vorige jaar se syfer, te
gebruik.
Verskeie metodes word gebruik om data te ontleed, deur middel van statistiese
modelle bekend as lineêre regressie, meervoudige regressie en stapsgewyse
regressie, 'n variasie van meervoudige regressie. Regressie ontledings word
gebruik in bepalende modelle omdat die waarde van een veranderlike gebruik
word as basis om die waarde van die ander veranderlike te probeer voorspel.
Sulke modelle word bepalend genoem vanweë die feit dat dit gebruikers van
data in staat stel om die waarde van die afhanklike veranderlike te bepaal deur
middel van die waarde van die onafhanklike veranderlike(s).
Lineêre regressie kan die verwantskap tussen interafhanklike veranderlikes
bereken en die afhanklikheid as 'n persentasie uitdruk.
Meervoudige regressie is 'n statistiese model wat die verwantskap tussen drie of
meer veranderlikes as 'n vergelyking bereken en voorstel. Meervoudige
regressie kan die verwantskap tussen drie of meer interafhanklike veranderlikes
bereken en die afhanklikheid as 'n persentasie uitdruk.
Die statistiese modelle word toegepas op elke individuele maatskappy, gebaseer
op die bogenoemde drie strukture. Die bevindinge van die navorsing is gebaseer op die resultate van die afhanklikheid van die veranderlikes soos deur die
verskillende statistiese modelle bereken.
Die uiteindelike gevolgtrekking was dat (1) die eerste verskille-struktuur die mees
gepaste vir hierdie model is, (2) deur die data van die afsonderlike maatskappye
in een poel te plaas, is die probleem van die gewig per maatskappy oorkom, (3)
die gebruik van lineêre, meervoudige en stapsgewyse regressie het baie waarde
ten opsigte van die vergelyking van akkuraatheid van die resultate toegevoeg.
Vergelykings is getref tussen bevindinge in hierdie werkstuk en die van ander
navorsers. Vier navorsers, naamlik Strong, Board en Day, Brown en Mara-
Tjingaete het R2 resultate vir verdienste per aandeel teenoor aandeelpryse van
onderskeidelik 12,8 persent, 13 persent, 7 persent en 7,8 persent gekry. Brown
en Mara-Tjingaete het R2 resultate van onderskeidelik 14 persent en 0,6 persent
bevind vir dividende per aandeel teenoor aandeelpryse en hierdie studie het ook
R2 resultate van 0,4 persent vir kontantvloei per aandeel teenoor aandeelpryse
gelewer.
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