The purpose of this thesis is to explore the relationship between the impacts of climate change and transboundary water management (TWM) mechanisms. The thesis does so through a case study of the transboundary water agreements between Israel, Palestine and Jordan – states that share the transboundary waters in the Jordan River Basin (JRB), a basin that lies in a region of high political tensions and decreasing precipitation. By using empirical climate data on precipitation, temperature and general climate change projections for the basin, the author seeks to understand how these environmental changes will challenge TWM in the JRB. By using qualitative methods to examine the water agreements through the method of process tracing, the thesis seeks to understand how the water agreements are constructed to handle changes in waterflow due to climate change. The results show that the transboundary mechanisms, the water agreements and Joint Water Committees (JWC), managing the transboundary waters in the JRB, possess weak mechanisms to manage changes in waterflow. As a consequence, the whole basin might experience increasing political pressures in the future over the fulfilment of water allocation provisions. The thesis further suggests that the TWM structures in the case lack awareness and mechanisms to handle climate change impacts. On the other hand, the JWCs have an institutional capacity, expertise, and mandate in managing these potential risks in the future. However, incidents in the past, manifest that decreased waterflow leads to increasing political tensions and conflicts between the states in the basin due to the lack of conflict resolution mechanisms in the TWM structures. In order to establish a sustainable TWM in the JRB, the suggested recommendation is that climate change impacts ought to be embedded into the water agreements by incorporating flexible mechanisms for water allocation. In addition, the conflict resolution mechanisms should be strengthened.

Historically, water, energy and agricultural resources have been naturally scarce in Jordan, but current economic, demographic, geopolitical and environmental conditions are aggravating the situation. The influxes of refugees are increasing the already high natural population growth; better economic conditions and living standards are changing consumption and production patterns; surrounding conflicts affect the supply of resources; and negative effects associated to climate change can be noticed already. Therefore, nexus thinking as a basis for integrated and cross-sectorial natural resources management is essential to achieve water, energy and food security, and eventually to move towards a sustainable development of the country. To that end, understanding the existing nexus interlinkages is crucial. This document constitutes a first nexus approach focused on water, energy and agriculture (WEA) sectors in Jordan. The research has adopted a case study method based on literature review to consider different contextual factors, and three levels of study were regarded: national level, Lower Jordan River Basin within Jordanian borders level, and As-Samra WWTP level, which has constituted the case study. Based on an extensive literature review that has resulted in an updated analysis of the current Jordanian context, the main WEA nexus interlinkages have been identified at every level of study. Thirteen future alternative pathways have been proposed, their potential impacts on WEA nexus sectors have been investigated, and related indicators to evaluate these impacts have been suggested. Additionally, three combined pathways have been analyzed in detail. In general, results show that interdependencies between WEA sectors at all levels are strong and projected to intensify in the future, and highlight the critical situation of Jordan in terms of resource management. Inefficiencies and unsustainable uses of natural resources stand out as decisive problems that urge to be solved, and future pathways appear to be potentially harmful for the Jordanian system unless they are included in an integrated nexus-based planning. / Historiskt sett har vatten-, energi- och jordbruksresurser varit naturligt begränsade i Jordanien, men de nuvarande ekonomiska, demografiska, geopolitiska och miljöbetingade förhållandena förvärrar situationen. Inkommande flyktningar ökar den redan höga populationsökningen; bättre ekonomiska förutsättningar och levnadsstandarder ändrar konsumtion- och produktionsmönster; kringliggande konflikter påverkar utbudet av resurser; och negativa effekter associerade med klimatförändringar är redan tydliga. På denna grund så är Nexus en god grund för integrerad och tvärsektoriell förvaltning av naturresurs och vital för att säkerställa resurser för vatten, energi och mat och eventuellt gå mot en hållbar utveckling inom landet. För att åstadkomma det ovannämnda så är förståelse för nuvarande nexus samband avgörande. Denna studie utgör ett tillvägagångssätt för en nexus studie med fokus på vatten, energi och jordbruk (WEA) sektorerna i Jordanien. Arbetet utgår från en fallstudie och baseras på en litteraturstudie som är gjord på tre olika nivåer: nationell, Lower Jordan River Basin inom gränserna av Jordanien och As-Samra vattenreningsverk, sistnämnda utgör fallstudien. Baserat på en omfattande litteraturstudie som resulterat i en uppdaterad analys av Jordaniens situation, så har de huvudsakliga WEA nexus sambanden identifierats för varje nivå. Tretton framtida alternativa utfall har föreslagits, deras potentiella påverkan på WEA sektorerna har undersökts och relaterade indikatorer har föreslagits för att utvärdera deras påverkan. Vidare, tre kombinerade utfall har utvärderats i detalj. Överlag så visar resultaten på starkt ömsesidigt beroende mellan WEA sektorerna på alla nivåer och är beräknad att intensifieras i framtiden, vilket betonar den kritiska situationen Jordanien befinner sig i med avseende på naturresurshantering. Ineffektivt och ohållbart utnyttjande av naturresurser står ut som ett stort problem som kräver en lösning, och framtida utfall tycks vara potentiellt skadliga för Jordanien om de inte inkluderas i en integrerad planering baserat på ett nexus tillvägagångssätt.