Thesis (M.Com (Economics and Economic history))--Rhodes University, 2006. / A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Commerce (Financial markets).

A dívida pública e sua gestão são peças fundamentais de todos os países, ganhando atenção primária dos gestores públicos. Em muitas economias, esse é um assunto complexo, mas, no Brasil, ele ganha contornos ainda mais intrigantes. A sua evolução é um problema central das políticas macroeconômicas e muitos autores a consideram como responsável de diversos entraves ao desenvolvimento econômico do País. Em especial, é possível citar a elevadíssima taxa de juros básica (com inércia e rigidez para baixo), o subdesenvolvimento dos mercados financeiros e do financiamento ao investimento de longo-prazo, a baixa eficácia da política monetária, a submissão da política fiscal de se ter como função principal a realização de superávit primário para amenizar os gastos financeiros, o crescimento acelerado da Dívida Pública Mobiliária Federal interna (DPMFi) e, logo, das despesas financeiras, dentre outros. Quais são os motivos deste pesado ônus causado à economia brasileira? Responder esta indagação é o objetivo amplo deste trabalho. Para alcançá-lo, busca-se contar a história do mercado de dívida pública no Brasil, pois acredita-se que é na história que encontramos as possíveis respostas para esta questão. Em específico, essa dissertação procurará analisar, à luz das perspectivas keynesiana e institucionalista, o mercado Selic, detentor de 99% dos títulos públicos. Norteará o alcance destes objetivos a hipótese de que a institucionalidade do mercado Selic e o seu instrumento-símbolo, as Letras Financeiras do Tesouro (LFTs), ao fundirem o mercado de dívida e o mercado monetário, de curto e longo-prazos, são grandes responsáveis pelo cenário que o Brasil vive hoje. Afinal, foram criados e tiveram sua funcionalidade no período hiperinflacionário, mas mantiveram-se intactos com o advento da estabilidade monetária no Plano Real. Ainda, o modo de condução da política monetária desde o Regime de Metas de Inflação (RMI) é visto como outro fator causal importante nesse processo, que, por sinal, relaciona-se diretamente com o mercado Selic que o País possui. As considerações finais do trabalho apontam para a necessidade de se romperem instituições tão enraizadas na economia brasileira, seja por parte da Autoridade Monetária (AM) ou pelo Tesouro Nacional (TN), a fim de que as consequências negativas da atual estrutura sejam eliminadas e que se tenha uma novo padrão de operacionalização das políticas econômicas em um ambiente institucional propício ao desenvolvimento do Brasil. / The public debt and its management are key elements of all countries, gaining policy makers‟s primary attention. In many economies, this is a complex matter, but in Brazil it gets even more intriguing countours. The performance of the public debt is a central problem of the macroeconomic policies and many author consider it responsible to various barriers to the Brazil‟s economic development. In particular, it‟s possible to mention the very high brazilian interest rate (with inertia and rigidity), the underdevelopment of finacnial markets and the financing of long term investiment, the low effectiveness of monetary policy, the submission of the fiscal policy once it has as main role make primary surplus to minimize the financial expenditures, the rapid growth of the domestic public debt and therefore of the financial expenses, among others. What are the reasons for this heavy burden caused to the Brazilian economy? Providing an answer for this question is the broad objective of this work. To reach it, this dissertations will try to tell the evolution of the public debt market in Brazil, since it is believed that is in history the possible answers to this question can be found. Specially, this work also seeks to analyse, in the light of Keynesian‟s and Institutionalist‟s perspective, the Selic market, which holds 99% of government securities. Will guide the achievement of these goals the hypothesis that the institution of the Selic market and its instrument-symbol, the Treasury Bills (LFTs), once it merged the debt market and the open market operations, the short and long-term, have great responsibility for the scenario that Brazil lives today. After all, they were created and had their functionality in hyperinflationary period, but remained intact with the advent of monetary stability in the Real Plan. Still, the way of conducting monetary policy since the Inflation Target is seen as another important causal factor in this process, which is directly related to the Selic market that the country has. The final considerations points out the need to break this embeddedness institutions to eliminate the negative consequences of the current structure and to achieve a new standard operationalization of economic policies in an favorable institutional environment to the Brazilian development.

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A dívida pública e sua gestão são peças fundamentais de todos os países, ganhando atenção primária dos gestores públicos. Em muitas economias, esse é um assunto complexo, mas, no Brasil, ele ganha contornos ainda mais intrigantes. A sua evolução é um problema central das políticas macroeconômicas e muitos autores a consideram como responsável de diversos entraves ao desenvolvimento econômico do País. Em especial, é possível citar a elevadíssima taxa de juros básica (com inércia e rigidez para baixo), o subdesenvolvimento dos mercados financeiros e do financiamento ao investimento de longo-prazo, a baixa eficácia da política monetária, a submissão da política fiscal de se ter como função principal a realização de superávit primário para amenizar os gastos financeiros, o crescimento acelerado da Dívida Pública Mobiliária Federal interna (DPMFi) e, logo, das despesas financeiras, dentre outros. Quais são os motivos deste pesado ônus causado à economia brasileira? Responder esta indagação é o objetivo amplo deste trabalho. Para alcançá-lo, busca-se contar a história do mercado de dívida pública no Brasil, pois acredita-se que é na história que encontramos as possíveis respostas para esta questão. Em específico, essa dissertação procurará analisar, à luz das perspectivas keynesiana e institucionalista, o mercado Selic, detentor de 99% dos títulos públicos. Norteará o alcance destes objetivos a hipótese de que a institucionalidade do mercado Selic e o seu instrumento-símbolo, as Letras Financeiras do Tesouro (LFTs), ao fundirem o mercado de dívida e o mercado monetário, de curto e longo-prazos, são grandes responsáveis pelo cenário que o Brasil vive hoje. Afinal, foram criados e tiveram sua funcionalidade no período hiperinflacionário, mas mantiveram-se intactos com o advento da estabilidade monetária no Plano Real. Ainda, o modo de condução da política monetária desde o Regime de Metas de Inflação (RMI) é visto como outro fator causal importante nesse processo, que, por sinal, relaciona-se diretamente com o mercado Selic que o País possui. As considerações finais do trabalho apontam para a necessidade de se romperem instituições tão enraizadas na economia brasileira, seja por parte da Autoridade Monetária (AM) ou pelo Tesouro Nacional (TN), a fim de que as consequências negativas da atual estrutura sejam eliminadas e que se tenha uma novo padrão de operacionalização das políticas econômicas em um ambiente institucional propício ao desenvolvimento do Brasil. / The public debt and its management are key elements of all countries, gaining policy makers‟s primary attention. In many economies, this is a complex matter, but in Brazil it gets even more intriguing countours. The performance of the public debt is a central problem of the macroeconomic policies and many author consider it responsible to various barriers to the Brazil‟s economic development. In particular, it‟s possible to mention the very high brazilian interest rate (with inertia and rigidity), the underdevelopment of finacnial markets and the financing of long term investiment, the low effectiveness of monetary policy, the submission of the fiscal policy once it has as main role make primary surplus to minimize the financial expenditures, the rapid growth of the domestic public debt and therefore of the financial expenses, among others. What are the reasons for this heavy burden caused to the Brazilian economy? Providing an answer for this question is the broad objective of this work. To reach it, this dissertations will try to tell the evolution of the public debt market in Brazil, since it is believed that is in history the possible answers to this question can be found. Specially, this work also seeks to analyse, in the light of Keynesian‟s and Institutionalist‟s perspective, the Selic market, which holds 99% of government securities. Will guide the achievement of these goals the hypothesis that the institution of the Selic market and its instrument-symbol, the Treasury Bills (LFTs), once it merged the debt market and the open market operations, the short and long-term, have great responsibility for the scenario that Brazil lives today. After all, they were created and had their functionality in hyperinflationary period, but remained intact with the advent of monetary stability in the Real Plan. Still, the way of conducting monetary policy since the Inflation Target is seen as another important causal factor in this process, which is directly related to the Selic market that the country has. The final considerations points out the need to break this embeddedness institutions to eliminate the negative consequences of the current structure and to achieve a new standard operationalization of economic policies in an favorable institutional environment to the Brazilian development.

A dívida pública e sua gestão são peças fundamentais de todos os países, ganhando atenção primária dos gestores públicos. Em muitas economias, esse é um assunto complexo, mas, no Brasil, ele ganha contornos ainda mais intrigantes. A sua evolução é um problema central das políticas macroeconômicas e muitos autores a consideram como responsável de diversos entraves ao desenvolvimento econômico do País. Em especial, é possível citar a elevadíssima taxa de juros básica (com inércia e rigidez para baixo), o subdesenvolvimento dos mercados financeiros e do financiamento ao investimento de longo-prazo, a baixa eficácia da política monetária, a submissão da política fiscal de se ter como função principal a realização de superávit primário para amenizar os gastos financeiros, o crescimento acelerado da Dívida Pública Mobiliária Federal interna (DPMFi) e, logo, das despesas financeiras, dentre outros. Quais são os motivos deste pesado ônus causado à economia brasileira? Responder esta indagação é o objetivo amplo deste trabalho. Para alcançá-lo, busca-se contar a história do mercado de dívida pública no Brasil, pois acredita-se que é na história que encontramos as possíveis respostas para esta questão. Em específico, essa dissertação procurará analisar, à luz das perspectivas keynesiana e institucionalista, o mercado Selic, detentor de 99% dos títulos públicos. Norteará o alcance destes objetivos a hipótese de que a institucionalidade do mercado Selic e o seu instrumento-símbolo, as Letras Financeiras do Tesouro (LFTs), ao fundirem o mercado de dívida e o mercado monetário, de curto e longo-prazos, são grandes responsáveis pelo cenário que o Brasil vive hoje. Afinal, foram criados e tiveram sua funcionalidade no período hiperinflacionário, mas mantiveram-se intactos com o advento da estabilidade monetária no Plano Real. Ainda, o modo de condução da política monetária desde o Regime de Metas de Inflação (RMI) é visto como outro fator causal importante nesse processo, que, por sinal, relaciona-se diretamente com o mercado Selic que o País possui. As considerações finais do trabalho apontam para a necessidade de se romperem instituições tão enraizadas na economia brasileira, seja por parte da Autoridade Monetária (AM) ou pelo Tesouro Nacional (TN), a fim de que as consequências negativas da atual estrutura sejam eliminadas e que se tenha uma novo padrão de operacionalização das políticas econômicas em um ambiente institucional propício ao desenvolvimento do Brasil. / The public debt and its management are key elements of all countries, gaining policy makers‟s primary attention. In many economies, this is a complex matter, but in Brazil it gets even more intriguing countours. The performance of the public debt is a central problem of the macroeconomic policies and many author consider it responsible to various barriers to the Brazil‟s economic development. In particular, it‟s possible to mention the very high brazilian interest rate (with inertia and rigidity), the underdevelopment of finacnial markets and the financing of long term investiment, the low effectiveness of monetary policy, the submission of the fiscal policy once it has as main role make primary surplus to minimize the financial expenditures, the rapid growth of the domestic public debt and therefore of the financial expenses, among others. What are the reasons for this heavy burden caused to the Brazilian economy? Providing an answer for this question is the broad objective of this work. To reach it, this dissertations will try to tell the evolution of the public debt market in Brazil, since it is believed that is in history the possible answers to this question can be found. Specially, this work also seeks to analyse, in the light of Keynesian‟s and Institutionalist‟s perspective, the Selic market, which holds 99% of government securities. Will guide the achievement of these goals the hypothesis that the institution of the Selic market and its instrument-symbol, the Treasury Bills (LFTs), once it merged the debt market and the open market operations, the short and long-term, have great responsibility for the scenario that Brazil lives today. After all, they were created and had their functionality in hyperinflationary period, but remained intact with the advent of monetary stability in the Real Plan. Still, the way of conducting monetary policy since the Inflation Target is seen as another important causal factor in this process, which is directly related to the Selic market that the country has. The final considerations points out the need to break this embeddedness institutions to eliminate the negative consequences of the current structure and to achieve a new standard operationalization of economic policies in an favorable institutional environment to the Brazilian development.

Orientador: Antonio Carlos Macedo e Silva / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-16T14:44:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Amitrano_ClaudioRoberto_D.pdf: 2319609 bytes, checksum: db18f6b0d07ae935c08c70c8141ac37f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010 / Resumo: Nos últimos anos tem crescido o debate em torno do papel das instituições na performance econômica. Dentre as diversas vertentes que analisam este possível papel encontra-se a chamada abordagem de Variedades de Capitalismo (VoC), desenvolvida, sobretudo, a partir dos trabalhos de Peter Hall e David Soskice. Segundo os proponentes desta abordagem a questão relevante reside no fato de que não apenas as instituições influenciam o desempenho econômico, mas que o fazem por meio de uma forte complementaridade. A existência desta complementaridade tem como conseqüência uma forte inércia, de modo que as economias não apresentariam tendência de convergência ao longo do tempo, seja do ponto de vista de suas instituições, seja em termos de taxas de crescimento. O objetivo desta tese consiste em investigar a consistência teóricometodológica da noção de complementaridade institucional e sua relação com a mudança institucional e a performance econômica. A despeito da concordância com a tese da VoC, de que a divergência entre países se configura mais como regra do que como exceção, a hipótese principal deste trabalho é que existe uma incongruência na abordagem de Variedades de Capitalismo entre os conceitos de instituição, complementaridade e o modelo teórico que norteia a análise da performance econômica. Neste sentido, pretende-se ao longo do trabalho demonstrar que uma definição distinta de instituição, associada não só a padrões comportamentais, mas também à noção de modelos mentais de interpretação, é capaz de conferir maior robustez ao conceito de complementaridade. Esta noção requer que se leve em conta três elementos na definição de instituição: incerteza fundamental, racionalidade limitada e reciprocidade. Além disso, procurar-se-á demonstrar na tese que a relação entre complementaridade e performance econômica, quando mediada por um conceito de instituição adequado, se articula e confere sentido às noções de regime de demanda e de produtividade dos modelos pós-keynesianos de crescimento / Abstract: The debate surrounding the role of institutions in economic performance has grown in recent years. Among the various strands that analyze this possible role is the one called Varieties of Capitalism (VoC) approach, developed by Peter Hall and David Soskice. According to proponents of this approach the relevant question lies in the fact that not only institutions influence the economic performance, but they do so through a strong institutional complementarity. The existence of this complementarity implies a strong inertia, so that economies would not converge over time, neither from the point of view of its institutions, nor in terms of growth rates. The goal of this thesis is to investigate the theoretical-methodological consistency of the concept of institutional complementarity and its relationship with the institutional change and economic performance. Despite the agreement with the central thesis of VoC, that divergence between countries is much more a rule than an exception, the main hypothesis of this thesis is that there is an inconsistency in the Varieties of Capitalism approach between the concepts of institution, complementarity and the theoretical model that guided the analysis of economic performance. In this sense, we intend to demonstrate that a distinct definition of institution associated with, not only behavioral patterns, but also to the very notion of mental models of interpretation, is able to confer greater robustness to the concept of complementarity. This concept requires consideration about three elements in the definition of institution: fundamental uncertainty, bounded rationality and reciprocity. In addition, will be shown that the relationship between complementarity and economic performance, when mediated by an appropriate concept of institution relates and gives meaning to the concepts of demand and productivity regimes of post Keynesian models of growth / Doutorado / Teoria Economica / Doutor em Ciências Econômicas

Michal Kalecki was not a mere precursor of Keynes, but a contemporary whose analysis provides insights into the nature of capitalism. His contribution to the understanding of the capitalist economy is central to this four chapter thesis. Chapter one develops a biographical sketch of Kalecki. Chapter two examines the components of his General Theory. Chapter three considers the differences between Kalecki and Keynes. Kalecki's contributions to the Keynesian revolution are presented along with the hopelessness he foresaw in incorporating any basic reforms into a capitalist economy. The final chapter looks to the present fruit of Kalecki's dynamic analysis--Post-Keynesian economics. The Post-Keynesian synthesis reflects the Kaleckian framework and the Keynesian optimism out of which policy may arise to affect the structural problems plaguing capitalism today.

Introduction: In recent years there has been a marked upsurge in the output of literature dealing with the demand for money, but with the exception of the North American Continent, empirical research has lagged distressingly far behind the voluminous output of theory. This dearth of empirical results has had a restrictive influence. Since any of the controversial points which are being disputed by theoreticians can only be resolved by recourse to empirical methods. The restriction of empirical research to the North American Continent has further meant that the various points under dispute have had only a limited qualification and consequently monetary theorists have had no indication as to the universalizability of their conclusions. There is thus a great need for empirical studies in other countries so that the validity of the rival theories can be tested under different conditions. It was with these thoughts in mind that the present study was undertaken. Its objectives are strictly national and no pretense of strict international comparability is made. Further, great care has been taken to avoid the pitfall so beloved of econometricians, the fallacy of reduction wherein strictly limited results are uncritically universalized. Thus no attempt has been made to draw conclusions which will have universal validity. The theoretically vital points which are going to be examined in the light of South African experience are: 1. The feasibility of distinguishing idle from active balances, and if this proves possible, the determination of the wealth and interest elasticities of these balances; 2. Dropping the explicit distinction between idle and active balances to (a) determine the role of interest rates, (b) determine the appropriate constraint on the demand function, (c) determine what effect different definitions of money have on (a) and (b); 3. To examine the stability of the demand function over time. Truth is, of course, many-sided and any uniform presentation can only aspire to present a one-sided picture, just like a photograph cannot hope to do justice to the full grandeur of nature, merely presenting a one-dimensional representation of a many dimensioned object. In spite of this restriction which is inherent in all econometrical studies, this one-sided picture seems to be justified in view of the lack of any unified and coherent treatment of the demand for money in South Africa.

In recent years the New Keynesian framework has become widely used to identify the relationship between monetary policy, inflation, the business cycle and welfare. Most commonly in these models inertia in prices are introduced only through the aggregate supply side which generates a short run non-neutrality of money. This thesis begins with an investigation into the impact of sticky prices on the macroeconomic equilibrium through aggregate demand. We show that in models of price stickiness among differentiated goods aggregate consumption deviates from the conventional Euler equation due to relative price distortions. This has some non-negligible implications: there are additional inflation effects, which enter through aggregate demand, that lower the response of the marginal cost and dampen responses of inflation and output; products' price elasticity of demand affects equilibrium output and inflation dynamics independently of supply factors; monetary policy responses are smoother than in the conventional new Keynesian models, particularly the more competitive are the products markets. In chapter 2 we continue with an investigation into the impact that the aforementioned channel has on welfare and monetary policy under various regimes. Specifically, we compare our results with the benchmark New Keynesian model with a cost channel for alternative levels of competition in the goods market. When the central bank is assumed to follow a Taylor rule we find, contrary to the standard New Keynesian literature, that welfare losses ultimately fall as the goods market becomes more competitive. Furthermore, there are additional adverse implications for welfare coming through an exaggerated stabilisation bias associated with discretionary policy in our model version. A move to optimal commitment implies significant additional gains compared to the standard literature by; eliminating this amplified stabilisation bias and; reducing further the fall in output gap and inflation fluctuations at the time of shock. The final part of this thesis develops a Generalised Taylor economy to include a financial market. This finance sector is characterised by savings contracts to households and loan contracts to firms, both of which are differentiated by the duration for which their interest rate remains fixed. Additionally, a time varying external finance premium on loan rates is introduced through an endogenous probability of firm default. Using break-even conditions we show that the fixed markup on loan rates is dependent on, the expected default risk over the lifetime of the contract, and, spillovers from the unexpected losses of current "locked in" financial contracts that must be accounted for in the zero profit condition of the commercial bank. Our results indicate that inertia in loan and savings rates dampens the responses of monetary policy and the business cycle whilst generating a procylical loan rate spread. In contrast, risk of default amplifies the business cycle and delivers a countercyclical loan rate spread. The overall impact of these two channels on the direction and magnitude of loan rate spreads, spillovers to new contracts and the dynamics of the business cycle, are shown depend on the type of shock hitting the economy.

The problem under investigation in this study is the determination of the usefulness of the concept of saving set forth by John M. Keynes in his The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, both as a method of prediction and prevention of business cycles and as a conceptual framework which is for use in explaining past economic activity, particularly economic growth. The study has a twofold purpose. The first is to evaluate the workability of the Keynesian definitions when applied to existing sources of economic data; to see if a meaningful savings aggregate is a statistical possibility. The second is to attempt to explain in terms of related parts of the rest of Keynes' theoretical system the conclusions reached under the first purpose above.