Research report submitted to partially fulfill the Master of Management in Finance and Investments to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management at the University of Witwatersrand March 2017 / This study empirically examines whether the capital structure for natural monopolies (parastatals) dynamically responds to macroeconomic conditions. It further examines whether the balance sheet channel theory holds for this industry sample. The study adopts a double sampling approach from the population of water boards in South Africa (SA), which raise their capital in open financial markets. A quantitative research approach is adopted with a descriptive design to achieve relevant deductions. Panel techniques are used in the descriptive design for the regressions. The study finds that leverage partly dynamically responds to macroeconomic conditions. Furthermore, the evidence shows that inflation is an exception that has no significant relationship with leverage. The balance sheet channel theory is found to hold for water boards that access capital in open financial markets. Specifically, empirical evidence shows that changes in the interest rate have a delayed impact on the companies’ characteristics, including capital structure. Overall, our evidence suggests that water boards in SA need to consider the benefits of linking financial policies to the business cycle and that their policies should consider the delayed effect of interest rate changes. / MT2017

The debt-to-equity ratio is useful for showing a company ́s financial capacity. As a result of the accompanying risks that a high level of leverage entails, most companies strive to be financed by equity as much as possible. However, tax benefits obtained through debt financing add complexity to the issue as a trade-off between risk and reward should be carefully considered. Previous empirical literature has shown that there is a relationship between the composition of the board, the gender of the CEO and the company’s capital structure.  The purpose of this study is to describe and analyze the relationship between the composition of the board and the CEO’s gender as well as the company’s capital structure in Swedish listed companies of Large, Mid and Small Cap between the years 2016 – 2020. This is done through a quantitative method where secondary data is analyzed through a multiple regression analysis. The result shows that there is no statistically significant relationship between the composition of the board and the company’s debt-to-equity ratio, while there is a negative statistically significant relationship between the CEO’s gender and the company’s debt-to-equity ratio. This leads to one of the study’s two hypotheses being rejected while the other hypothesis is accepted.

ESG-score är ett hållbarhetsmått som blivit allt mer aktuellt och innefattar områdena miljö, socialt ansvar samt bolagsstyrning. Uppsatsen undersöker tidigare studier kring ESG och intresset för hur hållbarhet har ökat i samhället. Med det som grund är syftet att vidare undersöka hur olika företags ESG-score påverkar deras finansiella utfall, avgränsat till börsnoterade företag på den svenska marknaden samt utvalda finansiella mått. Regressioner av uppsatsens datainsamling har utförts för att undersöka om ESG-score har en signifikant påverkan på de olika finansiella utfallen. Tidigare studier har haft delade meningar huruvida ett samband existerar, samt kring tillförlitligheten av betyget. Flera studier uppmanar till mer forskning inom området vilket har motiverat uppsatsen forskningsområde. Studiens resultat finner slutligen ett negativt signifikant samband mellan ESG-score och Market to Book, de resterande finansiella utfallen visar inget statistiskt signifikant samband till företagens ESG-score.

In today’s financial markets, volatility is a fundamental concept in regards of the risk assessment of assets and instruments. Financial volatility is commonly used to measure the quantitative aspects of risk and is given a significant amount of attention in past literature and research. The leverage effect refers to the well-established negative relationship between return and future volatility. The relation is usually explained by the increased leverage ratio that arises from a drop in the share price for a firm. A lower price means lower value of the equity and while the debt remains unchanged, the leverage ratio will rise. The leverage ratio affect how risky the equity is from an investor’s perspective, hence affects the volatility of the stock. This paper aims to analyse whether the theory is applicable on the Swedish stock exchange and takes both individual stocks and the OMXS30-index into account. Further theories related to the model is acknowledged in order to enhance the analysis of the findings. The study is performed by a regression model where volatility, estimated through an EGARCH model, represents the dependent variable. Lagged return, together with a number of control variables, constitutes the explanatory variables. The findings claims that the leverage effect is present for individual stocks but can be rejected on the index level. Additionally, significant improvement was noticed when a dynamic approach was added to the model. The conclusions drawn is that the Swedish stock exchange facilitates the leverage effect for individual firms but it is off-set by other theories such as risk-return trade-off and volatility clustering for the index. / I dagens finansiella marknader är volatilitet ett fundamentalt koncept som är ytterst relevant i risk bedömningen av tillgångar och instrument. Finansiell volatilitet används ofta för att mäta risk i kvantitativ form och har på senare tiden uppmärksammats i allt större utsträckning. Leverage effekten (en.”the leverage effect”) refererar till det! väletablerade negativa samband som finns mellan avkastning i nuvarande period och framtida volatilitet. Sambandet mellan dessa faktorer har av många förklarats av en ökning i skuldsättningsgraden för ett företag. Skuldsättningsgraden ökar enligt teorin som en konsekvens av att aktiekursen sjunker, innebärande en värdeminskning av det egna kapitalet, samtidigt som skulderna förblir oförändrade. Skuldsättningsgraden påverkar i sin tur aktiens volatilitet genom en uppfattning av hur stor risk som kan förknippas med en investering i aktien. För att stärka analysen diskuteras, förutom leverage effekten, ett antal teorier som kan relateras till modellen. Uppsatsen syfte är att avgöra om leverage effekten är signifikant applicerbar på den svenska aktiemarknaden, både för individuella aktier samt OMXS30 indexet. Studien utförs genom en regressions modell där volatiliteten, estimerad genom en EGARCH model, representerar den beroende variabeln. Avkastningen i föregående period samt ett antal kontroll variabler utgör de oberoende variablerna. Resultatet visar att leverage effekten har stor applicerbarhet på de individuella aktierna men kan uteslutas på en index nivå. Dessutom ökar relevansen signifikant när en dynamisk angreppsätt adderades till modellen. Slutsatsen är att leverage effekten är närvarande på en individuell nivå men neutraliseras av teorier så som ”risk return trade off” och ”volatilitets klustring” på index nivå.

Tracking ability of leveraged and inverse exchange traded funds can be very important to investors looking for a dependable return. If the investor wants to put their money on a certain index they feel strongly about, they expect their investment vehicle to track that return appropriately. Over the years, we have seen tremendous growth in the exchange traded fund industry. In 2006, leveraged and inverse funds were introduced to the market, allowing investors to take leveraged and directional trades on indices. These investment vehicles can be traded as easily as any stock, and therefore need some attention. Since any novice investor can access and trade these funds, they need to be aware of the risks they are taking. In this study, I test whether the ProShares S&P tracking leveraged and inverse exchange traded funds track their appropriate index multiple as promised. I did this by running regressions on each fund against the appropriate multiple of their underlying indices. I did this for funds of different market capitalization, for different holding periods, and with different amounts of leverage, to compare how these funds track in different conditions. I found that the large cap funds tend to track the best, with the small cap funds tracking the worst. I also find that tracking error tends to increase with longer holding periods. I find that the distribution of excess returns becomes less normal over longer holding periods, and begins to flatten out and widen. There does not seem to be a concrete conclusion as to whether or not the amount of leverage affects the tracking ability of the funds. I end up with mixed results when comparing amounts of leverage by model fit and by tracking error. Direction also does not seem to play any role in the tracking ability of these funds.

Thesis advisor: Rui Albuquerque / Thesis advisor: Edith Hotchkiss / This dissertation consists of three essays which explorer the interaction between finance and product market choices. In the first essay, “A Corporate Finance Model with Customer Dynamics: The Leverage-Profitability Puzzle,” I develop a dynamic trade-off model with quantity and pricing decisions where firms take into account their short term impact on profitability and long term impact on customer base. The model provides a novel mechanism that explains the leverage-profitability puzzle and makes new predictions about the leverage-profitability relation that are supported in the data. In the second essay, “Quality versus Quantity Strategies in Product Markets,” we study the strategies that monopolistic competitive firms follow as they respond to traditional shocks to technology and to quality-improving shocks. Our main modeling assumption is that demand is more sensitive to quality than it is to market share. This assumption is responsible for having quality shocks be the main driving force for most of what corporations do as opposed to traditional technology shocks. It also helps explain why firms with higher quality products have higher debt and lower credit spreads. In the third essay, “Is Mismeasurement of Real Consumption Due to Product Turnover Relevant for Asset Prices?” I examine the long-standing equity premium puzzle, and test whether mismeasurement in real consumption due to ignoring quality changes embedded in product turnover has an effect. I find that the change in real consumption volatility is not sizable to account for the puzzle. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2021. / Submitted to: Boston College. Carroll School of Management. / Discipline: Finance.

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The global economy has been severely impacted during the Covid-19 period. The U.S. stock market has also experienced greater volatility. Based on data from January 2020 to June 2021, this paper studies the volatility of daily returns on the stock market in the United States. The Standard and Poor's 500 (SPX) index and eight companies traded on major exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq are used to calculate volatility. Combining the statistical analysis methods GARCH, GARCH-M, and TARCH, the time series of each security is modeled. It is demonstrated that the conditional heteroskedasticity of stock returns depends not only on the observed historical volatility (ARCH term) but also on the conditional heteroskedasticity of prior periods (GARCH term). As expected for financial markets, the COVID-19 outbreak increased the volatility of U.S. stock market returns. After the COVID-19 outbreak, the volatility of the U.S. stock market rose dramatically. It reached an extremely high level for the first quarter of 2020 and continued to move downwards in the following quarters. The significant heteroskedasticity in the return volatility indicates that external variables significantly affect the stock. Furthermore, this study combines the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the research of Engle et al. (1987), which provides a way to quantify the liquidity premium. However, with the results of the GARCH-M model, this study does not find a significant liquidity premium over time. Additionally, The TARCH model reveals a significant asymmetry in stock market returns during this epidemic, suggesting that negative news has a more substantial impact on U.S. financial markets. For investors and financial institutions, this research helps identify potential volatility in the face of similar risk events. It is helpful for investors to comprehensively consider various factors when investing in special periods or consider other investment portfolios to reduce investment risks in specific periods based on research results.

This dissertation consists of two topics. Chapter 1 explores the relationship between U.S. Property-Casualty (P/C) insurers’ underwriting risk, investment risk, and leverage risk, using data from 1998 to 2013. I test the trade-off hypothesis using a simultaneous equation model framework with partial adjustment effects. The three equations model intend to examine the interrelations between insurers’ leverage and two measures of firm risks: underwriting risk and investment risk. The empirical evidence, various to different sample periods and model specifications, suggests there is no significant relationship existing between insurers’ underwriting risk and investment risk. But these two types of risks are both significantly and negatively related to the leverage ratio. The overall results imply that insurers tend to tradeoff leverage risk and underwriting risk/investment risk, but it appears that they have not taken an integrated approach between the total level of underwriting risk and investment risk yet. The second part of this dissertation empirically investigates the impact of credit risk on insurers’ reinsurance demand, using data on the U.S. P/C insurance industry from 2000 to 2014. I mainly explore how insurers’ credit rating status and downgrade risk affects their reinsurance demand. Using a two-stage least square (2SLS) regression model, I find that low-rated insurers are associated with a higher utilization of reinsurance. In addition, insurers that are downgraded in the previous year tend to have a higher reinsurance demand than the others. Results also show that downgraded group-affiliated insurers tend to significantly increase their internal reinsurance demand from the group-affiliated members while decreasing the purchase of external reinsurance significantly. In general, I find that insurers’ reinsurance demand is affected by their credit rating and downgrade risk. / Business Administration/Risk Management and Insurance

This Dissertation consists of two essays. The first essay examines how corporate financial policies depend on the properties of future cash flows. In contrast to prior literature, we investigate the role of asymmetries in the distributionof cash flows. We document the relevance of such asymmetries for firms' payout, liquidity, and capital structure policies. Policies are more sensitive to downside volatility and the directional effect of upside variation is often opposite that of downside. Controlling for cash flow volatility,policies significantly relate to measures of skewness. Firms adopt more conservative policies (lower propensity to pay, more cash, less leverage) when cash flow news is more negatively skewed. The second essay addresses a mythical relationship between corporate payout and short-termism. Over the past 30 years, aggregate investment by US public corporations has declined, and corporate payout has increased. These facts are interpreted as evidence that public firms are plagued by short-termism and are foregoing valuable investment opportunities to support the large payouts. We find that large increases in corporate payout do not impact firm investment or innovative activities in the short run. In the long run, firms which increase their payout invest more in physical capital than control firms and that their RandD spending is comparable. Firms which increase their payout do not experience a decline in operating profitability or valuation in the long run. These conclusions hold when we restrict our attention to firms who persist in making large payouts and for those high payout firms that rely on internal funds. Our results are inconsistent with the view that unusually high payout harms the long-term viability of US firms. The evidence in the paper suggests that the high payers are from industries with declining growth opportunities but the firms themselves are expecting their high profitability and cash flow to persist. / Doctor of Philosophy / Large increases or decreases in a company’s earnings or stock returns are breathcatching. Do such large changes contain information about the company’s future performance? If so, what information do they carry? My first essay answers these questions by looking into the data. We find that extreme stock returns do carry information about firms’ long-run performance, and this information effectively predicts firms’ financial decisions including payout, cash balance, and leverage. U.S. public firms have been decreasing their capital investment and increasing their cash payout to shareholders in the past 30 years. This create a concern because these firms are supposed to support economy growth and create jobs. Some commenters would conclude that if public firms payout so much money to shareholders, they would not have enough resource to support economy growth and create jobs. We try to find evidence from the data to support or refute this argument. The data shows that firms that payout a large amount of cash to shareholders do not reduce investment relative to their otherwise similar peers, neither in the short run nor in the long run. We also find that the firms that payout high amount are from industries with declining growth opportunities but the firms themselves are expecting their high profitability and cash flow to persist.