This thesis is concerned with various aspects of transitional labour reallocation either between different labour market states, or between less and more efficient enterprises, or between formal and informal sectors. The possibility of irregular employment opportunities receives special attention in this work. The substantive material is arranged in three independent essays. The first, empirical study portrays the most important trends in labour reallocation in Russia, and presents analyses of two types. First, transition probabilities are studied, and some determinants of worker flows are identified using a multinomial logit modelling. Second, a survival analysis of the non-employed is conducted to reveal possible causes of growing stagnancy of unemployment and inactivity. The findings are contrasted with the stylised theory of labour reallocation in transition (Aghion and Blanchard, 1994). The directions in which theoretical modifications should be attempted in future research are suggested. The second and the third essays draw upon some of these suggestions and are aimed at making a contribution on the theoretical front. The second essay puts forward a development of the seminal model of transition from planned to market economy by Aghion and Blanchard (1994). We introduce an informal sector to show that its presence can generate the dynamics qualitatively different from the types considered in the previous literature on the topic. It is argued that convergence to qualitatively different steady states can help explain varying transitional experiences of East European countries and the former Soviet Union republics. Attention is drawn to policy implications of the model, in particular to the creation of conditions favourable for the development of the new private sector as opposed to informal private initiative. Finally, the third essay takes the issue of coexistence of formal and informal sectors in transition further to see if such duality is possible in the long run, and to discuss the role of the government in creating preconditions for it. The study draws on the standard framework of Pissarides (2000) of search in the labour market. It demonstrates that a long-run equilibrium with both formal and informal economies is possible under very mild assumptions. It is also shown that labour market imperfections can create a situation when reduction in informality may be detrimental to economic welfare. Although the foci of the essays differ, the issues raised therein are closely knit so that many threads can be drawn together. In the concluding chapter we discuss the main areas to which this thesis contributes, summarise the main findings, and make some suggestions for future research.

The literature trying to link the increase in unemployment in many western European countries since the middle of the 1970s to an increase in labour market rigidity has run into a number of problems. In particular, changes in labour market institutions do not seem to be able to explain the evolution of unemployment across time. We conclude that a new theory of medium run unemployment swings should explain the increase in unemployment in many European countries and the lack thereof in the United States. Furthermore, it should also help to explain the high degree of endogenous unemployment persistence in the many European countries and findings suggesting a link between disinflationary monetary policy and subsequent increases in the NAIRU. To address these issues, we first develop an endogenous growth sticky price model. We subject the model to an uncorrelated cost push shock, in order to mimic a scenario akin to the one faced by central banks at the end of the 1970s. Monetary policy implements a disinflation by following an interest feedback rule calibrated to an estimate of a Bundesbank reaction function. 40 quarters after the shock has vanished, unemployment is still about 1.8 percentage points above its steady state. The model also partly explains cross country differences in the unemployment evolution by drawing on differences in the size of the disinflation, the monetary policy reaction function and wage setting. We then draw some conclusions about optimal monetary policy in the presence of endogenous growth and find that optimal policy is substantially less hawkish than in an identical economy without endogenous growth. The second model introduces duration dependent skill decay among the unemployed into a New-Keynesian model with hiring frictions developed by Blanchard/Gali (2008). If the central bank responds only to inflation and quarterly skill decay is above a threshold level, determinacy requires a coefficient on inflation smaller than one. The threshold level is plausible with little steady-state hiring and firing ("Continental European Calibration") but implausibly high in the opposite case ("American calibration"). Neither interest rate smoothing nor responding to the output gap helps to restore determinacy if skill decay exceeds the threshold level. However, a modest response to unemployment guarantees determinacy. Moreover, under indeterminacy, both an adverse sunspot shock and an adverse technology shock increase unemployment extremely persistently.

Orientador: Jose Dari Krein / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-14T11:44:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Kallabis_RitaPetra_M.pdf: 3192261 bytes, checksum: 5af6c824b17565b10bcc902bdf8aaba0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 / Resumo: Em meados da década de 1970 rompeu-se o padrão de desenvolvimento estabelecido no período do pós-guerra, um padrão expresso na construção dos Estados de Bem Estar Social, estes pautados pela inclusão social e pela promoção de maior justiça distributiva. Este rompimento deslanchou abertamente uma dupla crise, econômica e social. Pergunta-se: Quais as respostas que a União Européia deu a esta crise com a qual se instalaram o crescimento econômico lento e oscilante, o desemprego em massa e a precarização dos mercados de trabalho? E qual o significado destas respostas na busca por um novo padrão de desenvolvimento, como modelo social europeu? Procura-se por respostas, analisando-se a Estratégia Europeia para o Emprego (EEE), lançada em 1994, incluída no ano de 2000 na Estratégia Europeia para Emprego e o Crescimento (Estratégia de Lisboa) e afunilada em 2007 no projeto da Flexicurity. Discutindo-se as Políticas de Emprego contidas nestas estratégias, percebe-se um conflito de objetivos. De um lado, encontram-se elementos que as revelam como instrumentos de uma política econômica guiada pela visão liberal-conservadora que pressiona pela desregulação e flexibilização do mercado de trabalho, este último novamente visto como lócus para a resolução de problemas sociais mais amplos. Ao mesmo tempo, entretanto, essas políticas procuram inserir na regulação europeia elementos constitutivos dos Estados de Bem Estar Social nacionais. Mostra-se, então, como o projeto de integração europeia via mercado é contrabalançado socialmente pela força de resistência dos sistemas de proteção social construídos no período anterior, sem que se percebam indicadores da construção de uma nova utopia civilizadora que possa enraizar socialmente o capitalismo em seu estágio atual, desenfreado e predador. Conclui-se, apesar do discurso político contrário, que a União Européia não logrou e pouco tentou construir um novo modelo de desenvolvimento econômico e social. De fato, as Políticas de Emprego seguem a orientação liberal-conservadora voltada à adaptação econômica ao capitalismo globalizado, caracterizado pela concorrência exacerbada. / Abstract: After the Second World War was installed a model of development which highest expression was the construction of the social Welfare States, lined by social inclusion and promotion of major distributive justice. In middle of the 1970, this model was disrupted in a process that out righted a double-faced crisis, economic and social. That crisis induced decades of slow and unstable growth raised mass unemployment and provoked labour marked precarisation. What was the European Unions answer? And what is the signification of that answer while looking for a new model of development, like an European social model? Responses are looked for by analysing the European Employment Strategy (EES), launched in 1994, included in 2000 in the European Strategy for Growth and Employment (Lisbon Strategy) e splayed in 2007 in the project of Flexicurity. The Employment Policies contained in that strategies bear a conflict of interests: There are elements thatched to the instruments of liberal-conservative economic policy. / Mestrado / Economia Social e do Trabalho / Mestre em Desenvolvimento Econômico

Doctorat en sciences sociales, politiques et économiques / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished