A Survey Study of Career Ladder System for School Teachers in Pingtung County Abstract This study began with a literature review of career ladder system designated & performed by school districts in the United States. Then, it analyzed the contents of draft version for career ladder system suggested by the Ministry of Education, Taiwan. At the same time, it made a reference to empirical studies and interviews in our country, in order to establish career ladder certificate system for teachers. This system would not only benefit teachers to promote their professional status or push those who were in-service teachers, but also could sharpen their teaching skills and strengthen the qualification of teachers. The major purpose of this study was to estimate the feasible models of career ladder certificate system for school teachers in Pingtung County. In addition, they would like to conduct a survey towards the different backgrounds of the educational employees concerned, including the employees in the local education authorities, county councilors, PTA members(all were referred as ¡§non-teaching people¡¨), representatives of teachers¡¦ organization, full-time school teachers, full-time teachers with administrative duties, intern teachers, and substitute teachers. Most significantly, the researcher tried to interpret the subjects¡¦ attitude towards the career ladder certificate system and their perspectives towards the approaches to establish the system. The author, after reviewed the related literature, developed the instrument of questionnaire ¡§A Survey of the Opinions towards the System of Career Ladder and Professional Certification for School Teachers¡¨ and mailed to 1455 subjects in total. 925 of them responded. Then, the data were analyzed through methods of t-test, one-way ANOVA, chi-square test, distribution and percentage analysis. The conclusions of this study were as follows: 1.As to the questionnaire, the establishment of career ladder certificate system for teachers could push teachers to study, encourage them to conduct life-long learning, provide career ladder opportunities and reflect on their professional knowledge. 2.The subjects thought that the content of the career ladder certificate system should not be exclusive to one another. Additionally, containing the rules and regulations such as career ladder, terms of service for each ladder , hands-on teaching experiences and the tenure of service in teaching could avoid the system being monopolized by those who were held good relationships. Although the non-teaching people occupied the highest ratio for saying no to the system, they did think that the system was helpful for planning the human resource in schools and for enhancing the quality of teachers. 3.Teachers who worked at a school with a scale of 49~60 classes occupied the highest ratio for supporting the system. 4.On the management of career ladder and certification, the subjects were apt to the way that the central education authorities to develop the codes and regulations for the system and to take on the duties of reviewing and issuing certifications. 5.As for the renewing the tenure of certificates for each ladder, most subjects claimed necessary to have an expiring term to each certificate in order to match the requirements for continuing education and to establish a renewing term system. The renewing term, as the survey showed, ranged from 5 to 10 years. 6.The criteria for promotion among the different ladders and of course their certificates were referred to the followings: the review of applicants¡¦ education and expertise, the credits gained thru in-service education programs, applicant¡¦s creative performance in the design of instructional methods and materials, and the performance of the applicant¡¦s research. 7.When asked about the reviewers in the process of certification, colleague teachers and building principals were the most favored representatives for internal evaluation committee. As for the external evaluation committee, professional education groups and people were trusted the most. 8.Whether or not the career ladder certificate system for school teachers must be established, the subjects chose to set up a hierarchy system for teachers, and three levels of hierarchy were more referred to than the others. 9.As for the reciprocal agreement for career ladder certificate issued by various local education authorities, a high percentage of subjects tended to support that the certificates were universal around the country. 10.In the system of canceling career ladder and certification, it might happen due mainly to three causes: psychological, moral and teaching abilities. Furthermore, it was emphasized that only concrete and substantial evidence should be presented as the basis to make the decisions. 11.As to the difficulties encountered while executing the system of career ladder and certification, the subjects thought that the major doubts were respectively: insufficient support for the career ladder system, the credibility of those who might be responsible for the system, and lack of the codes and regulations concerned. 12.As for the related measures to put the career ladder certificate system into practice, most subjects recommended the establishment of in-service education & training system for teachers, revision of related codes & regulations, modification of teachers¡¦ salary scale, and setting up a task-oriented unit for the system. Based upon the conclusions of this research, the author then proposed suggestions not only to educational authorities, teacher training institution, all levels of schools, but also to the teachers at schools and future researchers. On the other hand, the research also provided a feasible reference for other local education authorities while considering to develop the career ladder certificate system for teachers.

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Three methods for claims reserving are compared on two data sets. The first two methods are the commonly used chain ladder method that uses aggregated payments and the relatively new method, double chain ladder, that apart from the payments data also uses the number of reported claims. The third method is more advanced, data on micro-level is needed such as the reporting delay and the number of payment periods for every single claim. The two data sets that are used consist of claims with typically shorter and longer settlement time, respectively. The questions considered are if you can gain anything from using a method that is more advanced than the chain ladder method and if the gain differs from the two data sets. The methods are compared by simulating the reserves distributions as well as comparing the point estimates of the reserve with the real out-of-sample reserve. The results show that there is no gain in using the micro-level method considered. The double chain lad- der method on the other hand performs better than the chain ladder method. The difference between the two data sets is that the reserve in the data set with longer settlement times is harder to estimate, but no difference can be seen when it comes to method choice. / Tre reservsättningsmetoder jämförs på två dataset. De första två metoderna är den välkända chain ladder-metoden som använder sig av aggregerade utbetalningar samt den relativt nya metoden double chain ladder som förutom utbetalningarna använder sig av antalet anmälda skador. Den tredje metoden baseras på mikro-nivå och kräver information om varje enskild skada, såsom anmälningstid och antalet utbetalningsperioder. De två dataseten som används är ett som innehåller skador med typiskt kortare avvecklingstider och ett som innehåller skador med typiskt längre avvecklingstider. Frågorna som behandlas är om man vinner något på att använda en mer avancerad metod än chain ladder och om det skiljer sig åt mellan dataseten. Metoderna jämförs genom simulering av reserven, men också genom att jämföra punktskattningar med den verkliga reserven. Resultaten visar att man I detta fall inte vinner något på att använda mikro-metoden. Double chain ladder å andra sidan presterar bättre än chain ladder. Skillnaden mellan de två dataseten är att det är svårare att estimera reserven när avvecklingstiden är längre, men ingen skillnad ses när det gäller val av metod

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[pt] Este trabalho utiliza três metodologias para modelagem de sinistros IBNR apresentados no formato do triângulo de runoff com cauda, e verifica, por meio de quatro exercícios empíricos com dados reais, se existe uma abordagem estatisticamente mais eficaz. A primeira metodologia se baseia no método do chain ladder clássico, com uma extensão de cálculo de reserva para ano de calendário. A segunda metodologia baseia-se em modelos de regressão linear com heterocedasticidade, sob o arranjo usual do triângulo via duplo-índice. A terceira insere-se no arcabouço dos modelos de espaço de estado lineares e do filtro de Kalman, considerando, desta vez, a ordenação por linhas do triângulo de Atherino et al. (2010). Para todas as abordagens, efetivam-se derivações teóricas e implementações computacionais tanto dos cálculos de reservas IBNR totais e parciais, resultantes dos modelos estimados, quanto dos correspondentes erros médios quadráticos teóricos. Como conclusões desta Dissertação, citam-se: (i) apesar de superiores ao chain ladder, nenhuma das outras duas abordagens se destaca sistematicamente em relação à outra; (ii) a adoção do efeito cauda se mostrou computacional e tecnicamente viável; e (iii) há fatos estilizados nos dados, modelados sob as três abordagens, que possibilitariam a confecção de softwares de estimação de reserva. / [en] This work makes use of three methodologies for modeling IBNR data arranged in the runoff triangle with a tail effect, and evaluates their performances in four empirical examples. The first methodology is the traditional chain ladder, duly extended to calculate a reserve corresponding to the calendar year. The second methodology remains on linear regression models with heteroscedastic errors, under the well-established double index notation of the triangle. The third methodology uses the linear state space modeling and the theory of the Kalman filter, adopting, this time, the row-wise ordering proposed by Atherino et al. (2010). For each approach, theoretical results and numerical implementations are obtained, where both the punctual IBNR reserve estimators and their corresponding theoretical mean square errors are considered. The main conclusions from this Dissertation are: (i) even thought proving to be superior to the chain ladder, none of the remaining two approaches seems to outperform the other; (ii) the adding of a tail effect does not entail major theoretical and/or computational problems; and (iii) the approaches have uncovered stylized facts that would enable the planning of softwares for IBNR reserve estimation.

[pt] Na construção de filtros digitais os coeficientes da sua função de transferência, calculados teoricamente, nem sempre podem ser implementados com exatidão. Isto gera o erro de quantização. A análise de sensibilidade permite conhecer tal alteração das especificações teóricas como também avaliar o desempenho do filtro. Este trabalho examina a estrutura Lattice-Ladder, tipo de filtro digital, descrita por equações de estado genéricas. O objetivo é estabelecer expressões de sensibilidade nos domínios do tempo e da freqüência, para resposta impulsional e resposta a uma excitação qualquer. / [en] In the construction of digital filters the coeficientes of its transfer function, calculated theorically, can´t often be implemented with accuracy. This leads to the quantization error. The sensitivy analysis allows to know this deviation from theoretical specifications and allows to estimate filter´s performance. This work examines Lattice- Ladder structure, a type of digital filter, described by generic state equations. The purpose is to establish sensivity expressions in time and frequency domains, for impulse and generic responses.

Point estimates of the Standard Chain Ladder method (CLM) and of the more complex Munich Chain Ladder method (MCL) are compared to real data on 38 different datasets in order to evaluate if MCL produces better predictions on average with a dataset from an arbitrary insurance portfolio. MCL is also examined to determine if the future paid and incurred claims converge as time progresses. A bootstrap model based on MCL (BMCL) is examined in order to evaluate its possibility to estimate the probability density function (PDF) of future claims and observable claim development results (OCDR). The results show that the paid and incurred predictions by MCL converge. The results also show that when considering all datasets MCL produce on average better estimations than CLM with paid data but no improvement can be seen with incurred data. Further the results show that by considering a subset of datasets which fulfil certain criteria, or by only considering accident years after 1999 the percentage of datasets in which MCL produce superior estimations increases. When examining BMCL one finds that it can produce estimated PDFs of ultimate reserves and OCDRs, however the mean of estimate of ultimate reserves does not converge to the MCL estimates nor do the mean of the OCDRs converge to zero. In order to get the right convergence the estimated OCDR PDFs are centered and the mean of the BMCL estimated ultimate reserve is set to the MCL estimate by multiplication. / Punktskattningar gjorda med Standard Chain Ladder (CLM) och den mer komplexa Munich Chain Ladder-metoden (MCL) jämförs med verklig data för 38 olika dataset för att evaluera om MCL ger bättre prediktioner i genomsnitt än CLM för en godtycklig försäkringsportfölj. MCLs prediktioner undersöks också för att se om de betalda och de kända skadekostnaderna konvergerar. En bootstrapmodell baserad på MCL (BMCL) undersöks för att utvärdera om möjligheterna att estimera täthetsfunktionen (probability density function, PDF) av framtida skadekostnader och av ”observable claim development results (OCDR)”. Resultaten visar att MCLs estimerade betalda och kända skadekostnader konvergerar. Resultaten visar även att när man evaluerar alla dataseten så ger MCL i genomsnitt bättre prediktioner än CLM med betald data, men ingen förbättring kan ses med CLM med känd skadekostnadsdata. Vidare visar resultaten även att genom att bara titta på dataset som uppfyller vissa krav, eller genom att bara använda olycksår efter 1999, så ökar andelen dataset där MCL ger bättre prediktioner än CLM.Vid evaluering av BMCL ser man att den kan producera estimerade PDF:er för ultimo-reserver och OCDR:er, men att medelvärdet av ultimo-reserv prediktionerna från BMCL inte konvergerar mot MCL-prediktionerna och att medelvärdet av OCDR:erna inte konvergerar mot noll. För att få rätt konvergens så centreras OCDR PDF:erna och ultimo-reservernas medelvärden sätts till motsvarande MCL-prediktionens värde genom multiplikation.

In my first chapter, I provide a solution for how to model bargaining when there is on-the-job search and worker turnover depends on the wage. Bargaining is a standard feature in models without on-the-jobs search, but, due to endogeneity of the match surplus, a solution does not exist when worker turnover depends on the wage. My solution is based on wages being infrequently renegotiated. With renegotiation, the equilibrium wage distribution and the bargaining outcomes are both unique and the model nests earlier models in the literature as limit cases when wages are either continuously or never renegotiated. Furthermore, the rate of renegotiation has important implications for the nature of the equilibrium. A higher rate of renegotiation lowers the response of the match duration to a wage increase, which decreases a firm's willingness to accept a higher wage. This results in a lower share of the match surplus going to the worker. Moreover, a high rate of renegotiation also lowers the positive wage spillovers from a minimum wage increase, since these spillovers rely on firms' incentives to use higher wages to reduce turnover. In the standard job ladder model, search is modelled via an employment-specific Poisson rate. The size of the Poisson rate governs the size of the search friction. The Poisson rate can represent the frequency of applications by workers or the rate at which firms post suitable vacancies. In the second chapter, which is co-authored with Jake Bradley, we set up a model which has both of these aspects. Firms infrequently post vacancies and workers occasionally apply for these vacancies. The model nests the standard job ladder model and a version of the stock-flow model as special cases while remaining analytically tractable and easy to estimate empirically from standard panel data sets. The structurally estimated parameters are consistent with recent survey evidence of worker behavior. The model fits moments of the data that are inconsistent with the standard job ladder model and in the process reconciles the level of frictional wage dispersion in the data with replacement ratios used in the macro labor literature. In my third chapter, which is co-authored with Coen Teulings, we develop a simple method to measure the position in the job ladder in models with on-the-job search. The methodology uses two implications from models with on-the-job search: workers gradually select into better paying jobs until they get laid off at which time they start again to climb the job ladder. The measure relies on two sources of variation: (i) time-variation in job-finding rates and (ii) individual variation in the time since the last lay-off. We use the method to quantify the returns to on-the-job search and to establish the shape of the wage offer distribution by means of simple OLS regressions with wages as dependent variables. Moreover, we derive a simple prediction on the distribution of job durations. Applying the method to the NLSY 79, we find strong support for this class of models. We estimate the standard deviation of the wage offer distribution to be 12%. OJS accounts for 30% of the experience profile and 9% of the total wage dispersion.