In the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area, suburban cities such as Hillsboro are projected to grow as people seek affordable housing near a rapidly growing metropolis. This thesis examines the combined impact of'c1imate change and urban development on both neighborhood and municipal scale residential water demand in Hillsboro, Oregon. I use two models, a surface energy balance model, Local-scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS), and a system dynamics model, CCDomestic, to investigate changes in residential water demand in the 2040s at two distinct spatial scales, the neighborhood and the municipality. I calibrate and validate each model to the reference period and then simulate the future (2030-2059) under three statistically downscaled global climate models and two urban development scenarios. The findings of this study indicate that climate change and urban development will not evenly affect water consumption in neighborhoods across a city. Instead, the current land cover and residential density of a neighborhood exert an important influence on the response. Heavily vegetated neighborhoods exhibit large increases in water demand under urban sprawl and warming scenarios, while neighborhoods dominated by impervious surfaces decrease water consumption under sprawl scenarios and show little change in water consumption under combined sprawl and warming scenarios. At the municipal scale findings suggest that water demand is highly sensitive to urban design and management and that the combination of urban densification and water conservation regulations could mitigate increases in water consumption from population growth and climate change.

Particles mobilized by stormwater negatively affect receiving surface waters. Stormwater best management practices (BMPs) can reduce solids along with associated pollutants in runoff but engineers and environmental managers have been long vexed by the problem of choosing the optimal BMP for a given situation. A common BMP process for solids removal is sedimentation. This thesis addresses the question of whether the effectiveness (and thus choice) of a sedimentation device can be estimated (and thus optimized) from the particle size properties of runoff, which, in turn, could be associated with specific runoff zones or land uses. Presented here is a series of experiments to determine the solids-removal capabilities of a manufactured oil-water separator that also removes solids via sedimentation. A statistical model developed from the experimental data shows that, under normal operating conditions, influent particle size can be used to accurately estimate effluent total suspended solids (TSS) for BMPs of this type. Relationships between particle size and particle-bound metal concentrations for Cu, Zn and Pb were then obtained from the literature and incorporated into the model to allow estimates of metal removal efficiencies based on TSS and PSD. The model can be used with an arbitrary particle size distribution (PSD); this allows effluent quality predictions to be made considering that particle sizes entering stormwater BMPs could vary due to anthropogenic, hydraulic or hydrologic factors. To place these experimental and modeling results in the context of an urban environment, samples of deposited stormwater solids were collected from residential areas, commercial areas and an industrial zone in Portland, Oregon, and the PSD of each sample was determined using light obstruction particle sizing. PSDs ranging over sizes from 3μm to 200μm vary among these locations. Areas with high anthropogenic impact were found to have PSDs skewed toward the smallest particle sizes. The statistical model developed here was then used to show that the effluent quality of the BMP tested would differ depending on the locations where solids were collected. The evidence presented in this thesis thus indicates that device performance will correlate with geographic locations or land use zone and validates further investigation into delineating the City of Portland's characteristic runoff zones and using the runoff characteristics of each zone to map it to the most desirable treatment practices.

Until recently, few have questioned the notion that the separation of uses in land use zoning is inherently correct. Many observers of the city are now suggesting that zoning, as it has been practiced in this country over the last 80 years, has created cities that are fractured and function poorly. Others propose that zoning should be reconsidered as a remedy for urban dysfunction. They suggest that the whole notion of zoning be rethought. The purpose of this study is to uncover some of the underlying rationales and methodologies that set the model for zoning. This study examines the rationales behind the classification and location of land use zones in a fast-growing area of Portland, Oregon, for its first zoning ordinance through history, culture, and geography. Between 1919 and 1924, two ordinances were prepared using two very different methodologies. The first of these was designed by nationally known consultant, Charles H. Cheney, using the latest scientific methods. After its rejection in the polls, a second ordinance was developed by a prominent group of realtors in conjunction with the city planning commission using more intuitive methods. This “realtors’ code” (MacColl 1979) was approved by the Portland electorate in 1924. Some fifty years later, the Portland planning commission would identify zoning as having played a significant role in the deterioration of the Buckman neighborhood in the study area. The comparison of the rationales and methods behind the locations of zone boundaries in both ordinances against the locations of actual uses in the study area, reveals the powerful influences of social Darwinism, laissez-faire attitudes, and newly developing social science methods on the association of zoning with the separation of uses and the land use patterns that were created.

This thesis provides an extensive look at where permitted non-farm uses and dwellings have clustered within Exclusive Farm Use (EFU) zones in the Northern Willamette Valley in Oregon. There is a looming concern that non-farm related uses and dwellings, or non-farm development, are conflicting with agricultural preservation strategies. Specifically, non-farm developments can potentially undermine the critical mass of farmland needed to keep the agricultural economy sustainable, but until now, studies have lacked spatially precise data to systematically track these phenomena. This thesis offers methodological contributions towards analyzing these operations and presents a broad account of what has been occurring in the region. Using permit approval data from the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) and 2015 county tax lot shapefiles, I geocoded the locations of these uses and dwellings. I used location quotient and spatial autocorrelation coefficients to identify non-farm hotspots in the region and summarized different typologies that have developed. The findings reveal that viticulture operations have amassed near Dundee and Newberg in Yamhill County, while commercial activities and home occupations have clustered near the Salem-Keizer UGB. Concurrently, dwellings have clustered near the Yamhill-Polk County border. Finally, I offer suggestions to improve Oregon's agricultural land use policy and data management process, as well as advocate for more intensive research in the future to generate narratives for our results.

A lack of land use controls on sexually oriented businesses contributes to the unique configuration of Portland, Oregon's strip clubs: nearly fifty clubs are distributed throughout the city's neighborhoods. Considered a locally unwanted land use (LULU) by many, these strip clubs are regulated by a variety of formal and informal social processes in the absence of zoning. This qualitative study explores drivers and constraints shaping the spatial configuration of Portland's strip club industry as well as influences on land use conflict at strip club sites and working conditions for women who work as exotic dancers in the clubs. Data collection entailed review of documents (newspaper articles, legal and administrative decisions and records, and ballot measure pro/con statements); site observations; and in-person interviews with exotic dancers, strip club owners and managers, public employees who deal with strip clubs in their line of work, and people who live and work near strip clubs (n=43). Analysis follows Clarke's (2005) situational analysis methods. The study finds that strip clubs are not necessarily incompatible with residential locations and that such locations can confer benefits to dancers. The normalization of strip clubs in Portland decreases the place stigma associated with strip clubs but has a lesser impact on the person stigma of being an exotic dancer. With regard to land use conflict, the study finds that tolerance of sexual commerce is associated with urbanicity and that neighborhood socioeconomic status has a more complex relationship to community response than is suggested by the literature on land use conflict. Based on these findings, the dissertation argues that conflict resolution programs may be more effective than zoning at managing potential negative effects of sexually oriented businesses, and that improving working conditions for exotic dancers is a complex challenge. It proposes broader adoption of the sex work discourse, including the integration of labor issues in sex industry to advocacy efforts on behalf of other freelance and service sector workers.

Oregon's land use planning system is often recognized as having been successful in its goals of limiting urban sprawl and protecting resource lands from development. However, it is difficult to quantify the impact of these regulations, because we cannot observe what would have happened in the absence of land use planning. The three essays in this dissertation explore the effects of Oregon's land use planning regulations on development patterns in the state, and also examine how the land use regulations are administered at the local level. The first essay in this dissertation asks if Oregon’s land use regulations have successfully restricted sprawl outside of urban areas. Urban containment policies, including Urban Growth Boundaries (UGBs), are a common tool used by city planners to promote compact development. We analyze how well UGBs do in containing development using fine-scale GIS data on cities in Oregon. Earlier studies on UGBs yield mixed results, with some authors finding no effects of UGBs on housing market variables and urbanization rates and others finding significant effects. A challenge in measuring these effects is that the location of the UGB is unlikely to be an exogenous determinant of a land parcel's value for development. The panel structure of our dataset allows us to estimate the UGB's effect on the probability of development using a difference-in-difference estimator. This estimator controls for time-invariant unobservable variables and common temporal effects among parcels, thereby mitigating the potential for biased estimates due to the endogeneity of the UGB's location. We also pursue a novel approach to controlling for time-varying factors inspired by regression discontinuity design. We find that UGBs are effective in containing development in many of the Oregon cities we examine, although there are some cities in which development rates are the same inside and outside of the UGB. Our results show that we would greatly overstate the effects of the UGBs were we to evaluate cross-sectional differences in development rates, as is common in previous studies. Besides the creation of UGBs, another goal of Oregon's land use regulations is to encourage citizen involvement in the planning process. The second essay in this dissertation examines the use of voter annexation as a form of citizen involvement. More specifically, this paper addresses the following two questions. First, does voter annexation cause changes in city demographics and characteristics? Second, assuming that a city votes for amendments and annexations to the UGB and city limits, what factors impact the outcome of the vote? We analyze the first question using the method of propensity score matching, which has not previously been used to explore this topic. This allows us to account for the endogeneity that stems from the fact that cities with certain characteristics may be more likely to use voter annexation in the first place. The second question, which is only evaluated for cities that employ voter annexation, is analyzed with the use of the logit model. Oregon's land use regulations must be approved at the state level, but are administered locally. Therefore, unlike past studies, we are able to isolate specific differences in the way the program is administered, and are not evaluating the stringency of the program itself. Previous studies have found that voter-approved annexation causes developers to provide more public goods and increase the scale of development, thereby shifting community demographics. Once a land use decision is on the ballot, it is also noted that cities that are whiter, wealthier, and more liberal are more likely to pass referenda that promote preservation and restrict development. For the first question, we compare specific demographic indicators between the two groups of cities. Contrary to the results of previous studies, we find no effect of voter annexation on these indicators. Our results for the second question indicate that the characteristics of the voting process itself impact the outcome more than community characteristics, which also differs from the results of previous analyses. The third essay in this dissertation is an extension of the first essay, and focuses on the impact of Oregon's land use regulations on the protection of land in riparian corridors and land that has been designated for exclusive farm use (EFU). Riparian corridors are protected with the use of Oregon Goal 5, which focuses on development of natural resource lands inside of UGBs, while EFU land is protected with the use of Oregon Goal 3, which focuses on protection of agricultural land at the county level. The LCT dataset that was used in the first essay is also used in this essay. EFU land by definition has no probability of development in the initial period. Land located in riparian corridors may also face different initial levels of protection than other land. We deal with this endogeneity, and also account for location inside or outside of a UGB, with the use of the difference -in-difference-in-differences estimator. This is an approach that has not been used to explore the effect of Oregon's land use regulations on these land categories. Most of the past studies that have examined the impact of land use planning on development of agricultural land in Oregon have relied on analysis of general trends and indicators, and have concluded that land use regulations have been successful in protecting this land. Previous research on riparian zone protection has focused on protection of aquatic wildlife, and for the most part has not examined the protection of riparian corridors inside of UGBs. The limited studies that have studied the effect of these regulations in UGBs have determined them to be effective in slowing, but not stopping, development in these areas. Overall, we find that Oregon's land use regulations have been successful in protecting both county level agricultural land and riparian corridors located inside of UGBs from development. It is less clear whether these regulations have protected riparian corridors located inside of UGBs from other anthropogenic uses. / Graduation date: 2012

This thesis examines prehistoric land use patterns of the entire North Santiam subbasin, located on the western slopes of the Oregon Cascade Range. The objective of this analysis is three-fold: 1) to contribute to reconstructing the cultural chronology of the area; 2) to address the use of raw material by local hunter-gatherers and how raw material can be used to reconstruct the seasonal procurement ranges for these groups; and 3) to model the adaptive strategies of the prehistoric inhabitants of the North Santiam subbasin. The adaptive strategies of hunter-gatherer groups in the North Santiam subbasin are addressed by using the known ethnographic record, limited archaeological excavations, and the environmental and social data layers in Geographic Information Systems. ArcView Spatial Analyst was used to analyze the density and distribution of prehistoric sites and their association with major vegetation, huckleberry patches, non-forested communities, slope, aspect, streams, lithic sources, hot springs and trails within the subbasin. Five elevation zones are outlined corresponding to the site density pattern and the key predictive environmental and social variables. This study assumed that sites are not randomly distributed across the landscape; instead hunter-gatherer groups chose a particular location based on the natural environment. It is also assumed that many of the environmental variables have survived to modern time and are represented by the presently available data. Concurrent trace element analysis by X-ray fluorescence spectrometry and obsidian hydration analysis conducted on projectile points recovered from the surface and subsurface have provided evidence for early occupation in the subbasin; and revealed patterns in mobility, social interaction, and the use of raw material during the Archaic. The key predictive variables sustained a diversity of plant and animal resources that attracted human groups from both east and west of the Cascade Mountains over the past 10,000 years to seasonally hunt and procure a variety of important plant resources. The results of this study while descriptive in nature elucidates a pattern of land-use by hunter-gatherers, by providing key distributional data on prehistoric sites and their association to particular ecological zones within the North Santiam subbasin during the Archaic Period. / Graduation date: 2002