Urban containment programs may be evaluated in terms of a theory unifying contributions from the economic, geographic and political science disciplines. The unified theory shows that successful programs will segment the urban-rural land market, remove speculative use value of rural land, and result in the urban land market valuing greenbelt proximity as an amenity. A general model to test urban containment programs against the unified theory is developed and then modified for application to Salem, Oregon. Results are fourfold. First, a gap in the locus of urban and rural land values at the UGB indicates that segmentation of the urban-rural land market is associated with urban containment policies. Second, the simultaneous effect of imposing a UGB proximate to urban development and subjecting rural land to conservancy zoning is to remove the speculative value component of rural land and reveal Sinclair's (1967) underlying convex quadratic agricultural use land value gradient. This finding is important in two respects: (a) it confirms the possibility of Sinclair's gradient, which has not been supported empirically hitherto, and (b) it suggests that a program's success in preserving greenbelt land solely for agricultural uses can be evidenced if Sinclair's gradient is revealed. Third, the conditions under which a program may fail to preserve rural land from speculative behavior will be evidenced by the traditional negatively sloping land value gradient. Fourth, where urban development is proximate to a UGB delineating greenbelts, the urban land market will value its proximity as an amenity. This finding is important in two respects: (a) it suggests that proximity to privately owned greenbelts may be valued as an amenity in the urban land market, a finding which has not been reported empirically hitherto, and (b) if an urban land market has confidence in the ability of an urban containment program to prevent sprawl into greenbelts, then it will treat greenbelt proximity as an amenity. The unified theory and methodology developed by this dissertation are generalizable to the evaluation of other urban containment programs.

An increasing national focus on problems related to urban sprawl has fueled debate on the best way for urban areas to accommodate increasing populations. Portland, Oregon has attracted international attention for its growth policies, which are among the most stringent in the United States. Metro, the area's regional government in charge of long-range planning, has designated certain locations as regional centers where increased density and development are to occur. A logical question is whether or not these centers are developing as intended; do Metro's plans match reality on the ground? This study of Washington County, Oregon analyzes land value, building volume, road intersection density, and public transportation availability using ArcGIS to locate potential regional centers in the county to answer that question. Subjective criteria are used during field visits to these locations to determine whether potential centers identified in the ArcGIS analysis are truly regional centers. Change over time is analyzed from 2000 to 2010 to see if the variables mentioned above contribute to regional center development. This study's results show Metro's designated regional centers are, in fact, regional centers or emerging regional centers using the above criteria, meaning this aspect of Metro's plans do match reality on the ground. Commercial land value tends to be the strongest indicator of regional centeredness. This study's findings aid in the understanding of urban areas. They help urban planners in their efforts to create viable plans that accommodate population growth and future development.