This thesis addresses the determinants of militia decision-making. Focussing on the Lebanese Forces (LF), the major Christian militia in Lebanon's Civil War, it analyses the motives which drove the LF to accept the Ta'if Accord--an acceptance that stands in stark contrast to its rejection of two earlier settlement blueprints, the Lausanne talks and the Tripartite Agreement. Steering away from the literature's focus on ideology as the prime mover of militias, the research explores other dimensions of militia decision-making, notably the impact of inter-communal power struggles, of the extra-communal balance of power, and of the international setting. Particular attention is given to the impact of the process of institutionalization. By rendering decisions more sensitive to cost-benefit and other prasmatic considerations, institutionalization is insruumental in bringing the more hawkish of militias to the negotiation table and in opening a window of opportunity for lasting conflict resolution.

This study is a comparative analysis of the survival strategies of two regimes: Jordan's King Hussein and Lebanon's Fu'ad Shihab. It is an exploration of the domestic determinants of foreign policy behaviour, and the relation between foreign policy behaviour and regime consolidation, legitimation, and survival in small, weak state actors located in a permeable regional system. The study advances an hypothesis of four explanatory variables to explain the success and failure of Hussein and Shihab's respective strategies. Husseinism's 'success'--as opposed to Shihabism's 'failure'--may be explained by a successful insulatory regional policy, the historical process of state formation, the availability of economic resources under state control, and the ability of the state to use its coercive resources without hindrance. This enabled the Hashemite regime to restructure state-society relations to consolidate social control, mitigate the effects of trans-national ideologies on the domestic arena, and achieve an acceptable level of national integration among the different segments of the society gaining the state allegiance from a sizeable number, or from strategic sectors, of the population.

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This thesis highlights a new approach to the programs and agenda of the Shi`ite representative body in Lebanon known under the acronym AMAL. The period studied is from 1969--1984. Previous studies have drawn insufficient attention to the important and quintessentially Islamic relation between religion and politics for this particular community. This relation becomes a focal point for this thesis. / Here, I study and tell the story of how a politically and socially marginalized sector of a society awakened unto itself and sought change in its political, social and economic position. This change involved a reaffirmation of specifically Shi`i doctrines, beliefs and motifs which helped this community assert themselves with a new identity during this fifteen year period.

In the span of two decades, Hizballah has evolved from an armed resistance movement against Israeli occupation into an efficient political party and---by extension---into a permanent fixture on Lebanon's mainstream political stage. The present analysis traces the evolution of the party from its inception and assesses its performance vis-a-vis the major players of Iran, Israel and Syria. Factors including the characteristics of the movement and the Shiite community itself, the shifting position, interests and policies of various regional actors, and the changing domestic conditions in Lebanon were isolated in order to adequately explain the behaviour and development of Hizballah. As a result, such alternatives to cultural factors (i.e the "Islamic variable") were found to be stronger explanatory factors rather than the Islamic factor. Ultimately, the essay illustrates that Islamic considerations are secondary, if not tertiary, when political decisions are to be made in different contexts. Rather, it is the interests of the more powerful actors that govern the organization's next move, in addition to the aforementioned variables. On the basis of such assumptions and findings, conclusions were finally drawn regarding Hizballah's future developments and its prospects following an Israeli withdrawal.

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Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The small Middle Eastern country of Lebanon was once recognised as the exemplar of power-sharing democracy, upholding a system that promoted peace and coexistence between Christians and Muslims. Power was divided proportionally amongst confessional groups, granting each sect power according to their demographic proportion. This division of power was aimed at promoting national unity, but changes in the Lebanese demography made the division undemocratic, and the constitution no longer accurately represented Lebanese society. The 1926 constitution, supplemented by the National Pact in 1943, which had upheld this division of power, baulked under the pressure of a 15-year civil war, to the surprise of many scholars who had praised the Lebanese system. While many place the blame on the outside influences, it has been determined that the problem lay within the system. The static characteristic of the system did not sufficiently provide for changing demographics, or a change in interest groups. The problem lay in the fixed nature of the proportionality of the consociational system. The prolonged civil war, sometimes referred to as a proxy war between Israel and Syria, came to an end with the signing of the Taif Accord in 1990. Though none were satisfied with its provision, the Accord brought an end to the escalating violence. The Accord paved the way for the rebuilding of state institutions, enabling parliamentary elections in 1992 and 1996; general municipal elections in 1998; the peaceful transfer of power between presidents; as well as the reconstruction of the Lebanese economy. The main objective of this study of Lebanon is to determine whether the amended Lebanese constitution of 1990 adheres to the principles provided in the theoretical framework regarding constitutional endurance. This study is in the form of a qualitative case study. It aims to describe, at length, and to form an in-depth understanding of the actors and events leading up to the Taif Accord, as well as the formation and implementation thereof. The research questions include: What factors relating to flexibility, specificity and inclusion contributed to the breakdown of the 1943 National Pact?; What steps were taken leading to the Taif Accord?; and Have the changes made in the Lebanese constitution by means of the 1990 Taif Accord facilitated the endurance of the constitution? The study aims to contribute through its application of the theoretical framework to a particular case study, namely that of Lebanon. By 'testing' this theoretical framework, this study also provides an in-depth analysis of the happenings in Lebanon over the past 80 years. It remains in question whether the Taif Accord‟s amendments to the constitution have sufficiently provided for the resilience of thereof. Twenty years of relative peace have not convinced Lebanese citizens of the legitimacy and efficacy of the Accord. While the over-centralisation of power within the system was curbed by shifting power away from the president to a cabinet equally divided between Christian and Muslims, the Accord failed to effectively deal with the preset nature of the proportionality within the system. 20 years of relative peace may be enough to ensure the endurance of the constitution, but regional factors as well as the presence of radicalised groups play an important role in destabilising the fragile balance within the country. Should the Lebanese state continue to be inclusive and flexible in the wake of a constantly changing environment, it may endure. However, the tumultuous nature of the region in which Lebanon finds itself may eventually provide external shocks that the Lebanese system fails to weather. The hope is that the system builds on sound, systemic foundations in order to be able to endure regional conflict. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die klein Midde-Oosterse land Lebanon, was vroeër 'n voorbeeld van 'n magsdelende demokrasie wat 'n stelsel gehandhaaf het wat vrede en naasbestaan tussen Christene en Moslems bevorder het. Mag is proporsioneel onder geloofsgroepe verdeel volgens hul demografiese verhouding tot die ander groepe. Hierdie verdeling van mag was gemik op die bevordering van nasionale eenheid, maar veranderinge in die Lebanese demografie het veroorsaak dat die grondwet nie meer verteenwoordigend was van die Lebanese samelewing nie. Die Lebanese Grondwet van 1926, tesame met die Nasionale Verdrag van 1943, wat hierdie verdeling gehandhaaf het, het onder die druk van 'n 15-jare Burgeroorlog inmekaar gestort, ten spyte van die vertroue wat in die stelsel was. Alhoewel die skuld soms op eksterne invloede geplaas is, is dit egter bepaal dat die probleem in die Lebanese stelsel self lê. Die statiese kenmerk van die stelsel het nie voldoende voorsiening gemaak vir 'n verandering in die demografie of belangegroepe nie. Die probleem lê in die statiese en onwrikbare aard van die konsosiatiewe stelsel. Die uitgerekte Burgeroorlog, soms gesien as 'n oorlog tussen Israel en Sirië op Lebanese grond, is tot 'n einde gebring met die ondertekening van die Taif Verdrag in 1990. Alhoewel geen betrokke party ten volle tevrede was met die bepalinge van die Verdrag nie, het dit 'n einde gebring aan die toenemende geweld. Die Verdrag het die weg gebaan vir die heropbou van staatsinstellings; parlementêre verkiesings in 1992 en 1996; algemene munisipale verkiesings in 1998; die vreedsame oordrag van mag tussen presidente; sowel as die heropbou van die Lebanese ekonomie. Die hoof doel van hierdie studie van Lebanon is om te bepaal of die gewysigde grondwet van 1990 voldoen aan die beginsels van die teoretiese raamwerk rakende grondwetlike uithouvermoë. Die studie is in die vorm van 'n kwalitatiewe gevallestudie. Dit het ten doel om te beskryf en 'n in-diepte begrip van die akteurs en die gebeure wat gelei het tot die Taif Accord, asook die vorming en implementering daarvan te vorm. Die navorsing vrae sluit in: Watter faktore met betrekking tot buigsaamheid, spesifisiteit en insluiting het bygedra tot die verval van die 1943 National Pact?; Watter stappe is geneem wat gelei tot die Taif Verdrag?; en Het die veranderinge in die Lebanese grondwet deur middel van die 1990 Taif Verdrag die langdurigheid van die grandwet gefasiliteer? studie het ten doel om by te dra deur middel van sy toepassing van die teoretiese raamwerk om 'n bepaalde gevallestudie, naamlik dat van die Lebanon. Hierdie studie verskaf ook 'n in-diepte analise van die gebeure in Lebanon oor die afgelope 80 jaar. Die vraag bly staan of die Taif Verdrag se wysigings aan die grondwet voldoende voorsiening gemaak het vir die oorlewing van die grondwet. Twintig jaar van relatiewe vrede het nog nie Lebanese burgers oortuig van die legitimiteit en doeltreffendheid van die Verdrag nie. Alhoewel die oor-sentralisering van mag binne die stelsel ingeperk is deur die verskuiwing van mag weg van die President, na 'n kabinet wat gelykop tussen Christene en Moslems verdeel is, het die Verdrag versuim om effektief met die proporsionele aard van die grondwet te handel. Dit is egter belangrik om op die uniekheid van die Lebanese geval te let, ten spyte van die vele faktore rondom die saak. Hoewel 20 jaar van vrede genoegsaam kan wees om die langdurigheid van 'n grondwet te verseker, speel streeksfaktore, sowel as die teenwoordigheid van radikale groepe 'n belangrike rol in die destabilisering van die fyn balans wat in die land voorkom. Indien die Lebanese staat voortgaan om inklusief en buigsaam te wees in die nasleep van 'n voortdurende, veranderende omgewing, sal dit kan voortleef. Maar die onstuimige aard van die streek waarin Lebanon homself bevind mag eksterne negatiewe faktore na vore bring wat die Lebanese stelsel nie kan hanteer nie. Die hoop is dat hierdie stelsel sal voortbou op sterk, sistemiese fondasies om in staat te wees om eksterne, sowel as interne, konflik te hanteer.