Le développement futur des performances sportives est un sujet de mythe et de désaccord entre les experts. Un article, publié en 2004, a donné lieu à un vif débat dans le domaine universitaire [1]. Il suggère que les modèles linéaires peuvent être utilisés pour prédire -sur le long terme- la performance humaine dans les courses de sprint. Des arguments en faveur et en défaveur de cette méthodologie ont été avancés par différent scientifiques et d’autres travaux ont montré que le développement des performances est non linéaire au cours du siècle passé [2, 3]. Une autre étude a également souligné que la performance est liée au contexte économique et géopolitique [4]. Dans ce travail, nous avons étudié les frontières suivantes : le développement temporel des performances dans des disciplines Olympiques et non Olympiques, avec le vieillissement chez les humains et d’autres espèces (lévriers, pur sangs, souris). Nous avons également étudié le développement des performances d’un point de vue plus large en analysant la relation entre performance, durée devie et consommation d’énergie primaire. Nous montrons que tous ces dévelopments sont limitées dans le temps [5, 6, 7] et que les modèles linéaires introduits précédemment sont de mauvais prédicteurs des phénomènes biologiques et physiologiques étudiés. Trois facteurs principaux et directs de la performance sportive sont l’âge [8, 9], la technologie [10, 11] et les conditions climatiques (température) [12]. Cependant, toutes les évolutions observées sont liées au contexte international et à l’utilisation des énergies primaires, ce dernier étant un paramètre indirect du développement de la performance. Nous montrons que lorsque les indicateurs des performances physiologiques et sociétales -tels que la durée de vie et la densité de population- dépendent des énergies primaires, la source d’énergie, la compétitioninter-individuelle et la mobilité sont des paramètres favorisant la réalisation de trajectoires durables sur le long terme. Dans le cas contraire, la grande majorité (98,7%) des trajectoires étudiées atteint une densité de population égale à 0 avant 15 générations, en raison de la dégradation des conditions environnementales et un faible taux de mobilité. Ceci nous a conduit à considérer que, dans le contexte économique turbulent actuel et compte tenu de la crise énergétique à venir, les performances sociétales et physiques ne devraient pas croître continuellement. / The development of sport performances in the future is a subject of myth and disagreement among experts. In particular, an article in 2004 [1] gave rise to a lively debate in the academic field. It stated that linear models can be used to predict human performance in sprint races in a far future. As arguments favoring and opposing such methodology were discussed, other publications empirically showed that the past development of performances followed a non linear trend [2, 3]. Other works, while deeply exploring the conditions leading to world records, highlighted that performance is tied to the economical and geopolitical context [4]. Here we investigated the following human boundaries : development of performances withtime in Olympic and non-Olympic events, development of sport performances with aging among humans and others species (greyhounds, thoroughbreds, mice). Development of performances from a broader point of view (demography & lifespan) in a specific sub-system centered on primary energy were also investigated. We show that all these developments are limited with time [5, 6, 7] and that previously introduced linear models are poor predictors of biological and physiological phenomena. Three major and direct determinants of sport performance are age [8, 9], technology [10, 11] and climatic conditions (temperature) [12]. However, all observed developments are related to the international context including the efficient use of primary energies. This last parameter is a major indirect propeller of performance development. We show that when physiological and societal performance indicators such as lifespan and population density depend on primary energies, the energy source, competition and mobility are key parameters for achieving longterm sustainable trajectories. Otherwise, the vast majority (98.7%) of the studied trajectories reaches 0 before 15 generations, due to the consumption of fossil energy and a low mobility rate. This led us to consider that in the present turbulent economical context and given the upcoming energy crisis, societal and physical performances are not expected to grow continuously.

The development of sport performances in the future is a subject of myth and disagreement among experts. In particular, an article in 2004 [1] gave rise to a lively debate in the academic field. It stated that linear models can be used to predict human performance in sprint races in a far future. As arguments favoring and opposing such methodology were discussed, other publications empirically showed that the past development of performances followed a non linear trend [2, 3]. Other works, while deeply exploring the conditions leading to world records, highlighted that performance is tied to the economical and geopolitical context [4]. Here we investigated the following human boundaries : development of performances withtime in Olympic and non-Olympic events, development of sport performances with aging among humans and others species (greyhounds, thoroughbreds, mice). Development of performances from a broader point of view (demography & lifespan) in a specific sub-system centered on primary energy were also investigated. We show that all these developments are limited with time [5, 6, 7] and that previously introduced linear models are poor predictors of biological and physiological phenomena. Three major and direct determinants of sport performance are age [8, 9], technology [10, 11] and climatic conditions (temperature) [12]. However, all observed developments are related to the international context including the efficient use of primary energies. This last parameter is a major indirect propeller of performance development. We show that when physiological and societal performance indicators such as lifespan and population density depend on primary energies, the energy source, competition and mobility are key parameters for achieving longterm sustainable trajectories. Otherwise, the vast majority (98.7%) of the studied trajectories reaches 0 before 15 generations, due to the consumption of fossil energy and a low mobility rate. This led us to consider that in the present turbulent economical context and given the upcoming energy crisis, societal and physical performances are not expected to grow continuously.