In the development of the watershed, hydrodynamic, and water quality models for St. Louis Bay in Mississippi, the Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS 2.0) - Nonpoint Source Model (NPSM) was selected as the watershed model and the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) which includes hydrodynamic and water quality models was selected as the Bay model. Watershed model calibration was initially accomplished utilizing historical data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ), and Gulf Coast Research Laboratory (GCRL). The watershed model simulated nonpoint source flow and pollutant loadings for all sub-watersheds, routed flow and water quality, and accounted for all major point source discharges in the St Louis Bay watershed. The model was executed for the period of time spanning from 1965 through 1999 in order to quantify flow and pollutant loadings under a variety of hydrologic conditions. Time varying output from the watershed model was applied directly to the St. Louis Bay model. The Bay model, in turn, simulated hydrodynamics and water quality, including water depth, velocities, salinity, temperature, and fecal coliforms. Final Bay model calibration was performed utilizing a set of site specific data acquired on St. Louis Bay during the period July 14-18, 1998. Model verification was conducted against another set of field data taken in the Bay, during April 18-27, 1999. Fecal coliform was modeled in each of the 750 segments of a three-dimensional system. Comparisons of the predicted and observed data are made qualitatively by using spatial and temporal comparisons. The response of model prediction calculations is consistent with trends of the observed data ranges. The applicability of the mathematical models is also demonstrated for the development of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for fecal coliform in the St. Louis Bay. The calibrated/verified model will be used as a planning tool to assess the water quality in the Watershed and the Bay as well as for calculating TMDL and Waste Load Allocation (WLA).

The Occoquan Watershed is a 1515 square kilometer basin located in northern Virginia and contains two principal waterbodies: the Occoquan Reservoir and Lake Manassas. Both waterbodies are principal drinking water supplies for local residents and experience eutrophication and summer algae growth. They are continuously threatened by new development from the rapid expansion of the greater Washington D.C. region. The Occoquan model, consisting of six HSPF and two CE-QUAL-W2 submodels linked in a complex way, has been developed and applied to simulate hydrology and water quality activities in the two major reservoirs and the associated drainage areas. The studied water quality constituents include temperature, dissolved oxygen, ammonium nitrogen, oxidized nitrogen, orthophosphate phosphorus, and algae. The calibration of the linked model is for the years 1993-95, with a validation period of 1996-97. The results show that a successful calibration can be achieved using the linked approach, with moderate additional effort. The spatial and temporal distribution of hydrology processes, nutrient detachment and transport, stream temperature and dissolved oxygen were well reproduced by HSPF submodels. By using the outputs generated by HSPF submodels, the CE-QUAL-W2 submodels adequately captured the water budgets, hydrodynamics, temperature, temporal and spatial distribution of dissolved oxygen, ammonium nitrogen, oxidized nitrogen, orthophosphate phosphorus, and algae in Lake Manassas and Occoquan Reservoir. This demonstrates the validity of linking two types of state of the art water quality models: the watershed model HSPF and the reservoir model CE-QUAL-W2. One of the advantages of the linked model approach is to develop a direct cause and effect relationship between upstream activities and downstream water quality. Therefore, scenarios of various land use proposals, BMP implementation, and point source management can be incorporated into HSPF applications, so that the CE-QUAL-W2 submodels can use the boundary conditions corresponding with these scenarios to predict the water quality variations in the receiving waterbodies. In this research, two land use scenarios were developed. One represented the background condition assuming all the land covered by forest and the other represented the environmental stress posed by future commercial and residential expansion. The results confirm the increases of external nutrient loads due to urbanization and other human activities, which eventually lead to nutrient enrichment and enhanced algae growth in the receiving waterbodies. The increases of external nutrient loads depend on land use patterns and are not evenly spread across the watershed. The future development in the non urban areas will greatly increase the external nutrient production and BMPs should be implemented to reduce the potential environmental degradation. For the existing urban areas, the model results suggest a potential threshold of nutrient production despite future land development. The model results also demonstrate the catchment function of Lake Manassas in reducing nutrient transport downstream. / Ph. D.