Published Article / This paper presents the set-up and the performance of the SWAT model in the Modder River Basin. Two techniques widely used, namely quantitative statistics and graphical techniques, in evaluating hydrological models were used to evaluate the performance of SWAT model. Three quantitative statistics used were, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), present bias (PBIAS), and ratio of the mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR). The performance of the model was compared with the recommended statistical performance ratings for monthly time step data. The model performed well when compared against monthly model performance ratings during calibration and validation stage.

Dissertation Submitted for the degree of Master of Science in Geography at the University of the Witwatersrand FEBRUARY 08, 2016 / A flash flood is a flood which occurs within 6 hours from the start of a particular rainfall event. The ability to accurately evaluate and forecast flash floods could help in mitigating their harmful effects by helping communities plan their settlements outside of high risk areas and by providing information for the formulation and implementation of early warning systems. The overall aim of the study is to evaluate the use of RADAR data and hydrological models for flash flood evaluation and prediction. This is done by initialising both a lumped hydrological model (NAM) and a distributed hydrological model (MikeSHE) with both RADAR and raingauge derived precipitation estimates for the Jukskei river catchment located in Gauteng South Africa. The results of the model simulations are compared with each other and with actual streamflow data using various statistical techniques. The hydrometeorological characteristics of flash floods in the study catchment are also evaluated on a case by case basis. A fast response time and short duration are noted as the resounding characteristics of floods in the study catchment. All the model runs failed to correlate with streamflow (with any significant statistical certainty). The models also failed to significantly predict streamflow when using the pair sampled t-test. This highlights the difficulty in using rainfall estimates and hydrological models for discharge prediction. Although it is expected that the more advanced distributed model would fare better when predicting the variables associated with high flow events, it was only marginally better when simulating event timing. The lumped model did, however, fare better when correlating with stream flow, number of high flow events, peak flow, as well as total duration and volume / MT2016

No description available.

The shallow subsurface controls the partitioning of available energy between sensible and latent heat of the land surface, and the partitioning of available water among evaporation, infiltration, and runoff. It is a key component of both the hydrometeorological system and the terrestrial water cycle. A critical part of any hydrological or hydrometeorological forecast model is therefore the algorithms used to represent the shallow soil processes, which include infiltration, evaporation, runoff, and interflow. For climate models, coupled algorithms called “Land Surface Schemes” (LSSs) are developed to represent the lower boundary conditions that deal with the land-to-atmosphere energy and moisture fluxes. Similar algorithms are implemented in regional watershed models and day-to-day operational water resources forecasting models. It is the primary objective of this thesis to provide improved methods for simulating coupled land surface processes, which can be used as components of LSSs or within existing operational hydrology models. These new methods address a number of specific issues inadequately handled by current models, including the presence of shallow boundary conditions, heterogeneity in infiltration, and infiltration and interflow coupling processes. The main objective of the proposed research is to provide consistent physically-based approach for simulating near surface soil moisture processes, so as to complete the parameterization of the interflow/infiltration algorithm in a Hydrology-Land-Surface scheme MESH. The work mainly focuses on the investigation and development of more physically-based infiltration and interflow algorithms. The hope is to determine appropriate relationships between internal state variables (specifically bulk soil moisture) and system boundary fluxes, while simultaneously reducing the number of nonphysical or unknown model parameters. Fewer parameters lead to reduced calibration requirements for distributed hydrological models and consequently accelerate the transfer of such models to engineering practice. Multiple approaches were taken to provide improved relationships between infiltration and lateral drainage, fluxes and storage. These algorithms were tested by a specialized Richards' equation for sloping soils and Monte Carlo simulations. These tests demonstrated reasonable accuracy and improved representation for the hydrological processes.

The shallow subsurface controls the partitioning of available energy between sensible and latent heat of the land surface, and the partitioning of available water among evaporation, infiltration, and runoff. It is a key component of both the hydrometeorological system and the terrestrial water cycle. A critical part of any hydrological or hydrometeorological forecast model is therefore the algorithms used to represent the shallow soil processes, which include infiltration, evaporation, runoff, and interflow. For climate models, coupled algorithms called “Land Surface Schemes” (LSSs) are developed to represent the lower boundary conditions that deal with the land-to-atmosphere energy and moisture fluxes. Similar algorithms are implemented in regional watershed models and day-to-day operational water resources forecasting models. It is the primary objective of this thesis to provide improved methods for simulating coupled land surface processes, which can be used as components of LSSs or within existing operational hydrology models. These new methods address a number of specific issues inadequately handled by current models, including the presence of shallow boundary conditions, heterogeneity in infiltration, and infiltration and interflow coupling processes. The main objective of the proposed research is to provide consistent physically-based approach for simulating near surface soil moisture processes, so as to complete the parameterization of the interflow/infiltration algorithm in a Hydrology-Land-Surface scheme MESH. The work mainly focuses on the investigation and development of more physically-based infiltration and interflow algorithms. The hope is to determine appropriate relationships between internal state variables (specifically bulk soil moisture) and system boundary fluxes, while simultaneously reducing the number of nonphysical or unknown model parameters. Fewer parameters lead to reduced calibration requirements for distributed hydrological models and consequently accelerate the transfer of such models to engineering practice. Multiple approaches were taken to provide improved relationships between infiltration and lateral drainage, fluxes and storage. These algorithms were tested by a specialized Richards' equation for sloping soils and Monte Carlo simulations. These tests demonstrated reasonable accuracy and improved representation for the hydrological processes.

All hydrological models incur various uncertainties that can be broadly classified into three categories: measurement, structural, and parametric uncertainties. Measurement uncertainty exists due to error in measurements of properties and variables (e.g. streamflows that are typically an output and rainfall that serves as an input to hydrological models). Structural uncertainty exists due errors in mathematical representation of real-world hydrological processes. Parametric uncertainty exists due to structural and measurement uncertainty and limited amount of data availability for calibration. <br>Several studies have addressed the problem of measurement and parametric uncertainties but studies on structural uncertainty are lacking. Specifically, there does not exist any model that can be used to quantify structural uncertainties at an ungauged location. This was the first objective of the study: to develop a model of structural uncertainty that can be used to quantify total uncertainty (including structural uncertainty) in streamflow estimates at ungauged locations in a watershed. The proposed model is based on the idea that since the effect of structural uncertainty is to introduce a bias into the parameter estimation, one way to accommodate structural uncertainty is to compensate for this bias. The developed model was applied to two watersheds: Upper Wabash Busseron Watershed (UWBW) and Lower Des Plaines Watershed (LDPW). For UWBW, mean daily streamflow data were used while for LDPW mean hourly streamflow data were used. The proposed model worked well for mean daily data but failed to capture the total uncertainties for hourly data likely due to higher measurement uncertainties in hourly streamflow data than what was assumed in the study.<br>Once a hydrological and error model is specified, the next step is to estimate model- and error- parameters. Parameter estimation in hydrological modeling may be carried out using either formal Bayesian methodology or informal Bayesian methodology. In formal Bayesian methodology, a likelihood function, motivated from probability theory, is specified over a space of models (or residuals), and a prior probability distribution is assigned over the space of models. There has been significant debate on whether the likelihood functions used in Bayesian theory are justified in hydrological modeling. However, relatively little attention has been given to justification of prior probabilities. In most hydrological modeling studies, a uniform prior over hydrological model parameters is used to reflect a complete lack of knowledge of a modeler about model parameters before calibration. Such a prior is also known as a non-informative prior. The second objective of this study was to scrutinize the assumption of uniform prior as non-informative using the principle of maximum information gain. This principle was used to derive non-informative priors for several hydrological models, and it was found that the obtained prior was significantly different from a uniform prior. Further, the posterior distributions obtained by using this prior were significantly different from those obtained by using uniform priors.<br>The information about uncertainty in a modeling exercise is typically obtained from residual time series (the difference between observed and simulated streamflows) which is an aggregate of structural and measurement uncertainties for a fixed model parameter set. Using this residual time series, an estimate of total uncertainty may be obtained but it is impossible to separate structural and measurement uncertainties. The separation of these two uncertainties is, however, required to facilitate the rejection of deficient model structures, and to identify whether the model structure or the measurements need to be improved to reduce the total uncertainty. The only way to achieve this goal is to obtain an estimate of measurement uncertainty before model calibration. An estimate of measurement uncertainties in streamflow can be obtained by using rating-curve analysis but it is difficult to obtain an estimate of measurement uncertainty in rainfall. In this study, the classic idea of repeated sampling is used to get an estimate of measurement uncertainty in rainfall and streamflows. In the repeated sampling scheme, an experiment is performed several times under identical conditions to get an estimate of measurement uncertainty. This kind of repeated sampling, however, is not strictly possible for environmental observations, therefore, repeated sampling was used in an approximate manner using a machine learning algorithm called random forest (RF). The main idea is to identify rainfall-runoff events across several different watersheds which are similar to each other such that they can be thought of as different realizations of the same experiment performed under identical conditions. The uncertainty bounds obtained by RF were compared against the uncertainty band obtained by rating-curve analysis and runoff-coefficient method. Overall, the results of this study are encouraging in using RF as a pseudo repeated sampler. <br>In the fourth objective, importance of uncertainty in estimated streamflows at ungauged locations and uncertainty in measured streamflows at gauged locations is illustrated in water quality modeling. The results of this study showed that it is not enough to obtain an uncertainty bound that envelops the true streamflows, but that the individual realizations obtained by the model of uncertainty should be able to emulate the shape of the true streamflow time series for water quality modeling.

No Brasil, o processo de urbanização caracterizou-se pela falta de planejamento e infraestrutura adequada, potencializando os impactos advindos das enchentes e inundações. Para mitigá-los, é necessária a realização de estudos hidrológicos que busquem compreender e representar o comportamento da bacia hidrográfica frente aos eventos chuvosos. Uma das ferramentas mais utilizadas para a execução dessa tarefa são os Sistemas de Suporte à Decisão (SSDs) aplicados na área de recursos hídricos, destacando-se o Sistema de Suporte a Decisões para Análise de Ondas de Cheias em Bacias Complexas (ABC6). O ABC6 caracteriza-se por ser um software brasileiro, gratuito e apresentar diversos modelos de determinação da precipitação efetiva e de geração de hidrogramas sintéticos. Quando os dados hidrológicos da área de estudo, como precipitação e vazão, encontram-se disponíveis, os parâmetros desses modelos podem ser determinados. Caso contrário, faz-se necessário estima-los por meio de formulações empíricas, sendo questionável a aplicação dessas formulações em áreas com características diferentes às de sua determinação. Dessa forma, a proposta do presente trabalho consistiu em avaliar o desempenho dos modelos presentes no ABC6, utilizando suas formulações empíricas para estimar o tempo de concentração e os parâmetros dos modelos de precipitação efetiva e de geração de hidrogramas sintéticos de uma bacia hidrográfica em processo de urbanização. Os resultados obtidos colocaram em xeque a validade dos valores dos parâmetros sugeridos em literatura técnica, do modelo do SCS para a determinação da precipitação efetiva e das rotinas de cálculo do ABC6 para os modelos de Horton e de Green-Ampt. Os resultados demonstraram a necessidade da atualização das rotinas de cálculo presentes no ABC6, de forma a torna-lo mais robusto, e da elaboração de um manual técnico detalhado de suas rotinas computacionais, orientando ao usuário de forma a extrair o máximo de sua potencialidade em estudos hidrológicos. Demonstrou-se, também, a necessidade de estudos regionalizados, de forma a incorporar as características e peculiaridades de cada região aos parâmetros a serem utilizados. / In Brazil, the urbanization process was characterized by the lack of planning and adequate infrastructure, strengthening the arising of floods and flooding. In order to mitigate them, it is necessary to conduct hydrological studies that seek to understand and represent the behavior of the watershed when facing rainfall events. One of the most used tools to perform this task is the Decision Support Systems (DSS) applied in the water resources area, highlighting the Decision Support System for Flood Wave Analysis in Complex Watersheds (ABC6). The ABC6 is characterized by being a free Brazilian software and it presents many models to determine the effective precipitation and to generate synthetic hydrographs. When the hydrological data of the study area are available, such as precipitation and flow, the models parameters can be determined. Otherwise, it is necessary to estimate them through empirical formulations so that the application of these formulations is questionable in areas with different characteristics from those of their determination. Thus, the purpose of this study was to assess the performance of the models presented in ABC6 by using their empirical formulations in order to estimate the time of concentration and the model parameters of effective precipitation and synthetic hydrograph generation for a watershed in the process of urbanization. The results put into question the validity of the parameters values suggested in the technical literature of the SCS model, which is used for the effective precipitation determination and the ABC6 calculation routines for models of Horton and Green-Ampt. The results presented the need of updating the calculation routines presented in the ABC6 in order to make it more robust, and the need of the elaboration of a detailed technical manual of its computational routines, guiding the user in order to make the most of its potential in hydrological studies. In addition, it has been demonstrated a need for regionalized studies in order to incorporate the features and characteristics of each region to the parameters to be used.

La mobilisation et la gestion de l’eau de surface constitue la clé de voûte du bien-être social et économique des populations des zones arides d’Afrique de l’Ouest. Cependant l’utilisation des outils de gestion et de prédétermination hydrologique est entravée par les changements climatiques et environnementaux que connait l’Afrique de l’Ouest depuis les années 1970. Les impacts de ces changements sont assez bien documentés sur les caractéristiques moyennes des régimes hydrologiques mais le sont moins lorsqu’on s’intéresse aux caractéristiques des extrêmes. Cette thèse s’inscrit dans le cadre d’une contribution à un projet d’actualisation des normes hydrologiques en Afrique de l’Ouest, et constitue le premier pas essentiel pour ce projet. Son objectif général est de caractériser les régimes de crues dans la région en répondant aux questions suivantes : Quelles sont les évolutions observées sur les régimes des crues en Afrique de l’Ouest ? Ces évolutions sont-elles en rapport avec les changements climatiques et/ou les modifications environnementales ? Quels sont les scénarii possibles de l’évolution des crues au regard des simulations climatiques futures ? La difficulté majeure de ce travail est liée à la disponibilité des données hydro climatiques et environnementales dans la région, aussi, l’analyse s’est basée sur des outils reconnus robustes dans la littérature. Dans un premier temps, l’utilisation des données de 14 stations hydrométriques de la région... / Water resources plays a key role in the social progress and economic development of west african countries. But the mobilization of water is hampered by climate and environmental changes that undergoes the region since 1970. Extremes parts of hydrological regimes are also impacted, but less studies have focus on their evolution, in relation with climate and environmental changes. The main objective of this thesis is to characterize hydrological extreme events in West Africa, we tried to answer the following questions:- What are the trends of maximum discharge in west Africa?- Are these trends due to climate changes or enviromental changes?- Which speculations can be made from these evolutions, according to future climate simulations?In the first part of the work, we analyzed the trends of floods over 14 watersheds of the region. This analysis allowed us to highlight a clustering behavior of flood according to the climatic region the catchments belong to. Increasing trends have been found on flood magnitude and flood frequency of the 3 sahelian catchments used, and decreasing trends of flood magnitude were found on three sudanian catchments. Finally, the remaining catchments did not showed significant trend in their flood regime...

In the last decade, spatially distributed hydrological models have rapidly advanced with the widespread availability of remotely sensed and geomatics information. Particularly, the areas of calibration and evaluation of spatially distributed hydrological models have been attempted in order to reduce the differences between models and improve realism through various techniques. Despite steady efforts, the study of calibrations and evaluations for spatially distributed hydrological models is still a largely unexplored field, in that there is no research in terms of the interactions of snow and water balance components with the traditional measurement methods as error functions. As one of the factors related to runoff, melting snow is important, especially in mountainous regions with heavy snowfall; however, no study considering both snow and water components simultaneously has investigated the procedures of calibration and evaluation for spatially distributed models. Additionally, novel approaches of error functions would be needed to reflect the characteristics of spatially distributed hydrological models in the comparison between simulated and observed values. Lastly, the shift from lumped model calibration to distributed model calibration has raised the model complexity. The number of unknown parameters can rapidly increase, depending on the degree of distribution. Therefore, a strategy is required to determine the optimal degree of model distributions for a study basin. In this study, we will attempt to address the issues raised above. This study utilizes the Research Distributed Hydrological Model (HL-RDHM) developed by Hydrologic Development Office of the National Weather Service (OHD-NWS). This model simultaneously simulates both snow and water balance components. It consists largely of two different modules, i.e., the Snow 17 as a snow component and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) as a water component, and is applied over the Durango River basin in Colorado, which is an area driven primarily by snow. As its main contribution, this research develops and tests various methods to calibrate and evaluate spatially distributed hydrological models with different, non-commensurate, variables and measurements. Additionally, this research provides guidance on the way to decide an appropriate degree of model distribution (resolution) for a specific water catchment.

Submitted by Aline Aparecida dos Santos (aline.ap.as@gmail.com) on 2018-10-10T01:15:53Z No. of bitstreams: 1 aline_dissertacao.pdf: 8818019 bytes, checksum: 897bb26d3f8580354f5b2342a1440b38 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Claudia Adriana Spindola null (claudia@fct.unesp.br) on 2018-10-10T13:23:38Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 santos_aa_me_prud.pdf: 8718423 bytes, checksum: 3f9bede63b8caf8fad50c6a69dd1d1a7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-10-10T13:23:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 santos_aa_me_prud.pdf: 8718423 bytes, checksum: 3f9bede63b8caf8fad50c6a69dd1d1a7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-07-05 / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) / O presente trabalho pretendeu estimar por meio de um modelo hidrológico os processos de escoamento superficial na região do Pontal do Paranapanema-SP em diferentes períodos hidrológicos, considerando as mudanças na cobertura e uso da terra na região ao longo dos anos. Para tanto, foi utilizado o modelo hidrológico Curve Number, que estima o escoamento superficial a partir da precipitação, da umidade antecedente do solo e da relação entre a cobertura da terra e a capacidade de infiltração do solo. Para gerar o modelo, definiram-se os anos de 1962 e 2014 com base em períodos hidrológicos já estabelecidos pela literatura. Na elaboração do modelo, foram utilizados os totais anuais de precipitação da região para os anos escolhidos, o mapa pedológico e os mapas de cobertura e uso da terra do período. O modelo foi gerado através de álgebra de mapas com o auxílio de um SIG. A análise dos mapas de escoamento superficial permitiu identificar áreas da bacia que sofreram alterações no escoamento superficial em função das mudanças da cobertura e uso da terra, bem como indicar as áreas que tiveram maior grau de escoamento. / Considering the changes in Pontal do Paranapanema land use over the years, this dissertation aimed to estimate the surface runoff processes in the region in different hydrological periods through a hydrological model. In order to do so, it was used the Curve Number hydrological model, which estimates the surface runoff create by precipitation, soil moisture and the relationship between land cover and soil infiltration capacity. It were defined 1962 and 2014 years to generate the model, based on hydrological periods already established in the literature. In the elaboration of the model, the annual precipitation totals for the selected years, the pedological map and the land use maps of the period were used. The model was generated through map algebra technic with the aid of a GIS. The surface runoff maps analysis allowed to identify areas of the basin that suffered changes in the surface runoff due to changes in land use, and to indicate the areas that had the highest surface runoff. / FAPESP: 2012/23959-9