<p>There has been a long-term decline in number of cyclic vole populations in boreal Sweden since the 1970s. Several hypotheses have been suggested to explain this decline. Commonly for <i>C. glareolus</i>, <i>C. rufocanus</i> and <i>M. agrestis</i>, the decline has followed upon an increased frequency and severeness of winter declines and has shown up as a drop in spring densities. The spring decline is most pronounced for <i>C. rufocanus</i>. In contrast to other voles, <i>C. rufocanus</i> also show a decline in fall densities, suggesting some additional disturbance in this species. Habitat fragmentation has been suggested as such an additional disturbance and in this thesis the effect of habitat fragmentation on <i>C. rufocanus</i> is explored.</p><p>At first the sampling method was evaluated i.e. whether the decline could be due to destructive sampling when the method in use in the long-term monitoring is snap-trapping. This resulted in a rejection of the destructive sampling hypothesis as a possible cause behind the decline in <i>C. rufocanus</i>. Habitat preference revealed that three habitats at the local scale (trap station) were high quality habitats for <i>C. rufocanus</i>: forest of moist and wet/hydric dwarf-shrub type, in addition to forest/swamp complexes rich in dwarf-shrubs. The occurrence of <i>C. rufocanus</i> at the landscape scale was positively correlated with the amount of boulder fields and a low degree of fragmentation of old-growth pine forests. There was considerable local variation in the decline in vole density among the 58 1-ha sampling plots, with respect to both density and timing of the decline, which suggested that habitat destruction outside sampling plots might be involved. Overall, clear-cuts had a negative influence on vole densities at both the local and landscape scale. A multiple regression analysis suggested that having both a high quality habitat at the local scale and a high proximity among xeric-mesic mires and a low connectivity among clear-cuts at the landscape scale were important for the occurrence of <i>C. rufocanus</i>.</p><p>Initial analysis at the landscape scale were based on landscape data collected from 2.5 x 2.5 km areas centred on the individual vole sampling plots. Further investigations, however, on the patch level suggest that focal forest patch size and quality was of major importance in determining occurrence and persistence of <i>C. rufocanus</i>. Although not tested formally in these studies, the habitat fragmentation hypothesis has so far received support. Currently <i>C. rufocanus</i> seems to be affected negatively by too low patch sizes of suitable habitats in the surrounding landscape suggesting that the amount of suitable habitats could already be below the fragmentation threshold. However, this has to be evaluated further. Work is in progress to establish time-series over local landscape changes, and to evaluate if such changes have been associated with local declines of <i>C. rufocanus</i> and whether habitat loss, true habitat fragmentation or both have been influential.</p>

There has been a long-term decline in number of cyclic vole populations in boreal Sweden since the 1970s. Several hypotheses have been suggested to explain this decline. Commonly for C. glareolus, C. rufocanus and M. agrestis, the decline has followed upon an increased frequency and severeness of winter declines and has shown up as a drop in spring densities. The spring decline is most pronounced for C. rufocanus. In contrast to other voles, C. rufocanus also show a decline in fall densities, suggesting some additional disturbance in this species. Habitat fragmentation has been suggested as such an additional disturbance and in this thesis the effect of habitat fragmentation on C. rufocanus is explored. At first the sampling method was evaluated i.e. whether the decline could be due to destructive sampling when the method in use in the long-term monitoring is snap-trapping. This resulted in a rejection of the destructive sampling hypothesis as a possible cause behind the decline in C. rufocanus. Habitat preference revealed that three habitats at the local scale (trap station) were high quality habitats for C. rufocanus: forest of moist and wet/hydric dwarf-shrub type, in addition to forest/swamp complexes rich in dwarf-shrubs. The occurrence of C. rufocanus at the landscape scale was positively correlated with the amount of boulder fields and a low degree of fragmentation of old-growth pine forests. There was considerable local variation in the decline in vole density among the 58 1-ha sampling plots, with respect to both density and timing of the decline, which suggested that habitat destruction outside sampling plots might be involved. Overall, clear-cuts had a negative influence on vole densities at both the local and landscape scale. A multiple regression analysis suggested that having both a high quality habitat at the local scale and a high proximity among xeric-mesic mires and a low connectivity among clear-cuts at the landscape scale were important for the occurrence of C. rufocanus. Initial analysis at the landscape scale were based on landscape data collected from 2.5 x 2.5 km areas centred on the individual vole sampling plots. Further investigations, however, on the patch level suggest that focal forest patch size and quality was of major importance in determining occurrence and persistence of C. rufocanus. Although not tested formally in these studies, the habitat fragmentation hypothesis has so far received support. Currently C. rufocanus seems to be affected negatively by too low patch sizes of suitable habitats in the surrounding landscape suggesting that the amount of suitable habitats could already be below the fragmentation threshold. However, this has to be evaluated further. Work is in progress to establish time-series over local landscape changes, and to evaluate if such changes have been associated with local declines of C. rufocanus and whether habitat loss, true habitat fragmentation or both have been influential.

In the southern of the Amazon basin, extensive deforestation associated with global climate change have impacted the regional water cycle. Predictions indicate that future alteration might cause even higher pressure over regional water resources. The goal of this study was to perform a detailed evaluation of past changes in the water resources of the upper Xingu basin, a region which is broadly representative of southern Amazon. The evaluation consisted of characterizing alterations in medium and long-term time series of rainfall, river discharge, evapotranspiration and total water storage change. The study employed not only in situ measurements, but also remotely sensed data. Remote sensing products including rainfall, evapotranspiration and water storage change were employed in the evaluation of the regional water balance. A thirteen years\' time series derived from RS products was submitted to a trend analysis, to detect significant variations in the water balance. Furthermore, uncertainties in each remote sensing product were retrieved, mostly comparing in situ measurements with RS estimates. To describe limitations of such products to evaluate the regional water balance, river discharge was calculated as the residual of the water balance. Later on, the estimated river discharge was compared to in situ measurements and uncertainties in the water balance were defined. The analysis of long-term alterations considered in situ measurements of rainfall and river discharge, from the period of 1976-2015. In this case, a group of hydro-climatological indicators was derived and then submitted to Mann-Kendall and Petit test. Due to the relevance of forest cover on river flow regulation, land use changes (LUC) were mapped every five years from 1985 to 2015. LUC results were then compared to the hydro-climatological data, to identify similarities in changing patterns. The evaluation of water balance components based on remote sensing products described fairly well the spatial variability in the study site. The uncertainties in P, ET and TWSC products corresponded to 41, 25 and 18 mm month-1, respectively. Due to these uncertainties, it was not possible to perform the water balance closure based on RS data. No significant changes were observed in the time series derived from these products. Contrastingly, the evaluation of a 40-years\' time series presented a decrease of 245 mm in rainfall, with intensity and number of rainy events being reduced. This phenomenon is most likely resultant from two process, the reduction in water recycling due to deforestation, as well as the Pacific Ocean decadal oscillation, which influences the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Although deforestation tends to increase river discharge, the reduction in rainfall in the Upper Xingu Basin was high enough to mask this effect. / O desmatamento em larga escala na região sul da bacia amazônica brasileira, associado às mudanças climáticas globais, tem impactado o ciclo hidrológico regional. Previsões futuras indicam uma pressão ainda maior sobre os recursos hídricos regionais. O objetivo deste estudo foi realizar uma avaliação detalhada das possíveis alterações nos recursos hídricos da bacia do Alto Xingu, uma região extremamente representativa do sul da Amazônia. Para tanto, foram empregadas séries temporais de longa e média duração, correspondentes à precipitação (P), vazão (Q), evapotranspiração (ET) e variação do armazenamento de água (TWSC). O estudo empregou medições in situ, bem como dados de sensoriamento remoto (SR). As estimativas de sensoriamento remoto foram empregadas na avaliação do balanço hídrico regional. As séries temporais de treze anos derivadas de produtos de SR foram submetidas a uma análise de tendência, com o objetivo de detectar variações significativas nos componentes do balanço hídrico. Além disso, as incertezas em cada produto foram obtidas comparando-se medições in situ com as estimativas de SR. Com o objetivo de descrever as limitações de tais produtos para a realização do balanço hídrico regional, a vazão do rio Xingu foi estimada com base na fórmula do balanço hídrico. Posteriormente, tal estimativa foi comparada com as medições in situ, gerando um indicativo da incerteza no fechamento do balanço hídrico. Já a análise das alterações a longo prazo considerou as medidas in situ da precipitação e vazão, no período de 1976-2015. Neste caso, um grupo de indicadores hidro-climatológicos foi calculado e posteriormente submetido aos testes de Mann-Kendall e Pettit. Devido à relevância das florestas na regulação da vazão dos rios, as mudanças no uso e ocupação da terra foram mapeadas a cada cinco anos, durante 1985-2015. Os resultados foram comparados aos dados hidro-climatológicos, buscando assim semelhanças nos padrões de alteração. Os produtos de sensoriamento remoto descreveram razoavelmente bem a variabilidade espacial dos componentes do balanço hídrico. As incertezas nas estimativas de P, ET e TWSC corresponderam a 41, 25 e 18 mm mês-1. Devido a incertezas nos produtos de SR, não foi possível realizar o fechamento do balanço hídrico. Com relação as séries temporais derivadas dos dados de SR, nenhuma mudança significativa foi observada. Por outro lado, a avaliação das séries temporais de longa duração, apresentaram diminuição de 245 mm na precipitação, com as chuvas tendo intensidade e número de eventos reduzidos. Este fenômeno é provavelmente resultante de dois processos, sendo um deles a redução na ciclagem da água devido ao desmatamento. O segundo corresponde a oscilação decadal na temperatura da superfície do Oceano Pacífico, a qual influencia a circulação atmosférica em grande escala. Embora o desmatamento cause aumento na vazão do rio, a redução da precipitação na Bacia do Alto Xingu foi suficientemente alta para mascarar esse efeito. Os dados aqui apresentados não só apresentam um diagnóstico sobre os recursos hidrícos do Alto Xingu, como também são extremamente relevantes para a compreensão da interação entre a paisagem e os componentes do balanço hídrico.

In the southern of the Amazon basin, extensive deforestation associated with global climate change have impacted the regional water cycle. Predictions indicate that future alteration might cause even higher pressure over regional water resources. The goal of this study was to perform a detailed evaluation of past changes in the water resources of the upper Xingu basin, a region which is broadly representative of southern Amazon. The evaluation consisted of characterizing alterations in medium and long-term time series of rainfall, river discharge, evapotranspiration and total water storage change. The study employed not only in situ measurements, but also remotely sensed data. Remote sensing products including rainfall, evapotranspiration and water storage change were employed in the evaluation of the regional water balance. A thirteen years\' time series derived from RS products was submitted to a trend analysis, to detect significant variations in the water balance. Furthermore, uncertainties in each remote sensing product were retrieved, mostly comparing in situ measurements with RS estimates. To describe limitations of such products to evaluate the regional water balance, river discharge was calculated as the residual of the water balance. Later on, the estimated river discharge was compared to in situ measurements and uncertainties in the water balance were defined. The analysis of long-term alterations considered in situ measurements of rainfall and river discharge, from the period of 1976-2015. In this case, a group of hydro-climatological indicators was derived and then submitted to Mann-Kendall and Petit test. Due to the relevance of forest cover on river flow regulation, land use changes (LUC) were mapped every five years from 1985 to 2015. LUC results were then compared to the hydro-climatological data, to identify similarities in changing patterns. The evaluation of water balance components based on remote sensing products described fairly well the spatial variability in the study site. The uncertainties in P, ET and TWSC products corresponded to 41, 25 and 18 mm month-1, respectively. Due to these uncertainties, it was not possible to perform the water balance closure based on RS data. No significant changes were observed in the time series derived from these products. Contrastingly, the evaluation of a 40-years\' time series presented a decrease of 245 mm in rainfall, with intensity and number of rainy events being reduced. This phenomenon is most likely resultant from two process, the reduction in water recycling due to deforestation, as well as the Pacific Ocean decadal oscillation, which influences the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Although deforestation tends to increase river discharge, the reduction in rainfall in the Upper Xingu Basin was high enough to mask this effect. / O desmatamento em larga escala na região sul da bacia amazônica brasileira, associado às mudanças climáticas globais, tem impactado o ciclo hidrológico regional. Previsões futuras indicam uma pressão ainda maior sobre os recursos hídricos regionais. O objetivo deste estudo foi realizar uma avaliação detalhada das possíveis alterações nos recursos hídricos da bacia do Alto Xingu, uma região extremamente representativa do sul da Amazônia. Para tanto, foram empregadas séries temporais de longa e média duração, correspondentes à precipitação (P), vazão (Q), evapotranspiração (ET) e variação do armazenamento de água (TWSC). O estudo empregou medições in situ, bem como dados de sensoriamento remoto (SR). As estimativas de sensoriamento remoto foram empregadas na avaliação do balanço hídrico regional. As séries temporais de treze anos derivadas de produtos de SR foram submetidas a uma análise de tendência, com o objetivo de detectar variações significativas nos componentes do balanço hídrico. Além disso, as incertezas em cada produto foram obtidas comparando-se medições in situ com as estimativas de SR. Com o objetivo de descrever as limitações de tais produtos para a realização do balanço hídrico regional, a vazão do rio Xingu foi estimada com base na fórmula do balanço hídrico. Posteriormente, tal estimativa foi comparada com as medições in situ, gerando um indicativo da incerteza no fechamento do balanço hídrico. Já a análise das alterações a longo prazo considerou as medidas in situ da precipitação e vazão, no período de 1976-2015. Neste caso, um grupo de indicadores hidro-climatológicos foi calculado e posteriormente submetido aos testes de Mann-Kendall e Pettit. Devido à relevância das florestas na regulação da vazão dos rios, as mudanças no uso e ocupação da terra foram mapeadas a cada cinco anos, durante 1985-2015. Os resultados foram comparados aos dados hidro-climatológicos, buscando assim semelhanças nos padrões de alteração. Os produtos de sensoriamento remoto descreveram razoavelmente bem a variabilidade espacial dos componentes do balanço hídrico. As incertezas nas estimativas de P, ET e TWSC corresponderam a 41, 25 e 18 mm mês-1. Devido a incertezas nos produtos de SR, não foi possível realizar o fechamento do balanço hídrico. Com relação as séries temporais derivadas dos dados de SR, nenhuma mudança significativa foi observada. Por outro lado, a avaliação das séries temporais de longa duração, apresentaram diminuição de 245 mm na precipitação, com as chuvas tendo intensidade e número de eventos reduzidos. Este fenômeno é provavelmente resultante de dois processos, sendo um deles a redução na ciclagem da água devido ao desmatamento. O segundo corresponde a oscilação decadal na temperatura da superfície do Oceano Pacífico, a qual influencia a circulação atmosférica em grande escala. Embora o desmatamento cause aumento na vazão do rio, a redução da precipitação na Bacia do Alto Xingu foi suficientemente alta para mascarar esse efeito. Os dados aqui apresentados não só apresentam um diagnóstico sobre os recursos hidrícos do Alto Xingu, como também são extremamente relevantes para a compreensão da interação entre a paisagem e os componentes do balanço hídrico.