Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-20T14:25:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_guilherme_reinke.pdf: 5244899 bytes, checksum: 883a2f12008ef21f2da3eb9001e720b6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-03-13 / The main objective of the study was to obtain the relation between Pacific and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies in South America (SA) and, moreover, evaluate the relationship of rainfall in Brazil to SST. Data from reanalysis of SST and OLR of the NCEP/NCAR were used, between the months of October and March of the period from 1982 to 2007, which was applied the statistical technique of Principal Components (PC), allowing the study of the correlation between the two variables. Data of precipitation of 691 stations in Brazil, obtained from the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET), Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) and Fundação Estadual de Pesquisa Agropecuária (FEPAGRO), were correlated with the scores of the SST and were used to prepare the rainfall climatology in the country, which enabled the understanding of the rainfall regime in spring and summer. Finally, a model was developed to forecast of the rainfall in Brazil with two months for advance, between December and March, using as predictors the first five scores of the SST. The correlations between the PC1 of the SST and the PC1 of the OLR shown to be significants at 1%, where the PC1 of SST is related with the ENSO pattern, showing in October: desintensification or intensification of convection in central and southern of Argentina; November: opposite pattern of OLR anomalies between south of Brazil and the area of activity of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ); January: reduction or increase of convection in the northwestern of SA; December, February and March: intensification or desintensification of convection associated with the Bolivian High, and also in north of the North and Northeast Regions of Brazil. Moreover, in all months of the study, the PC2 of the SST showed the indication of a dipole pattern between the Central and Equatorial Atlantic adjacent to the northeastern coast of Brazil, and South Atlantic, in middle latitudes. In October, November and March, OLR anomalies areas associated with a pattern of more oceanic SACZ seem to be directly related to a strong gradient of SST anomalies, with positive anomalies in the northeast coast of Brazil and negative anomalies on the south-southeast coast of the country. When it was of the SST with the rainfall in Brazil, it was found in the months of November, December and January, similar patterns seen in the correlations between the SST and OLR. In the four months in which the model was applied to predict the rainfall, it was noted that South and Northeast regions of Brazil have the best potential for forecasting. / O principal objetivo do estudo foi obter a relação entre anomalias de Temperatura da Superfície do Mar (TSM) dos Oceanos Pacífico e Atlântico e anomalias de Radiação de Onda Longa (ROL) na América do Sul (AS) e, além disso, avaliar a relação da TSM com a precipitação no Brasil. Foram utilizados dados de reanálises de TSM e ROL do NCEP/NCAR, entre os meses de outubro a março do período de 1982 até 2007, aos quais foi aplicada a técnica estatística de Componentes Principais (CP), possibilitando o estudo da correlação entre as duas variáveis. Dados de precipitação de 691 estações no Brasil, obtidos junto ao Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET), Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) e Fundação Estadual de Pesquisa Agropecuária (FEPAGRO), foram correlacionados com os escores da TSM e usados na elaboração da climatologia da precipitação no país, que permitiu um entendimento do regime de chuvas nos períodos de primavera e verão. Por fim, foi desenvolvido um modelo de previsão da precipitação no Brasil com dois meses de antecedência, entre dezembro e março, usando como preditores os cinco primeiros escores da TSM. As correlações entre a CP1 da TSM e a CP1 da ROL mostraram ser significativas a 1%, em que a CP1 da TSM está relacionada com o padrão ENOS, apresentando em outubro: intensificação ou desintensificação da convecção no centro e sul da Argentina; novembro: padrão oposto de anomalias de ROL entre o Sul do Brasil e a área de atuação da Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZCAS); janeiro: redução ou aumento da convecção no noroeste da AS; dezembro, fevereiro e março: intensificação ou desintensificação da convecção associada à Alta da Bolívia e, também, no norte das Regiões Norte e Nordeste do Brasil. Além disso, em todos os meses do estudo, a CP2 da TSM mostrou no Oceano Atlântico a indicação de um padrão de dipolo entre o Atlântico Equatorial e Central adjacente à costa Nordeste do Brasil, e o Atlântico Sul, em latitudes médias. Em outubro, novembro e março, áreas de anomalias de ROL associadas com um padrão de ZCAS mais oceânica parecem estar diretamente relacionadas com um forte gradiente de anomalias de TSM, com anomalias positivas na costa nordeste do Brasil e negativas na costa Sul-Sudeste do país. Ao relacionar a TSM com a precipitação no Brasil foram encontrados nos meses de novembro, dezembro e janeiro, padrões semelhantes aos vistos nas correlações entre a TSM e ROL. Nos quatro meses em que foi aplicado o modelo de previsão da precipitação, pôde-se notar que as Regiões Sul e Nordeste do Brasil apresentam os melhores potenciais para a previsão.

Nachhaltige Architektur erfordert neue Bauformen, innovative Konstruktionen und die Verwendung neuartiger Baumaterialien. Zur Abschätzung des Risikos von feuchtebedingten Schäden finden Programme der hygrothermischen Bauteilsimulation Anwendung. Bei der Entwicklung solcher Simulationsprogramme spielt die korrekte Modellierung der Klimarandbedingungen eine entscheidende Rolle. Beim Übergang von der kurzwelligen horizontalen Strahlungsstromdichte auf die kurzwellige Strahlungsstromdichte eines beliebigen Bauteils müssen Himmelsrichtung der Flächennormalen und die Neigung des Bauteils zum Ausschluss von Eigenverschattung berücksichtigt werden. Das dargestellte integrale Modell erlaubt die Berechnung und Programmierung in einem hygrothermischen Simulationsprogramm. Für den Fall, dass nur Messwerte der globalen Strahlungsstromdichte zur Verfügung stehen, können die direkten und diffusen Anteile mithilfe geeigneter Modelle mit einer sehr guten Genauigkeit berechnet werden. Zur Berechnung der langwelligen Strahlungsbilanz eines Bauteils stehen nur selten jene Klimaparameter zur Verfügung, mit denen die atmosphärische langwellige Strahlungsflussdichte analytisch bestimmt werden kann, weshalb semi-empirische Modelle Anwendung finden müssen. Die langwellige Ausstrahlung der Atmosphäre kann mithilfe von bodennaher Lufttemperatur und Luftfeuchte sowie zweier Bedeckungsgrad-Indizes berechnet werden, welche die langwelligen Strahlungseigenschaften der Atmosphäre auf der Basis der vorhandenen kurzwelligen Strahlungsstromdichten beschreiben. Damit wird erstmals ein umfassendes Modell für die langwellige Strahlungsbilanz vorgelegt, welches alle Möglichkeiten der Datenverfügbarkeit berücksichtigt. Die Berechnung der Schlagregenstromdichte auf ein Bauteil kann mit den meisten vorliegenden semi-empirischen Modellen nur sehr ungenau erfolgen. Andere Verfahren, wie z.B. CFD-Simulationen, kommen wegen des beträchtlichen Aufwands meist nicht in Frage. Das bislang einzige vorliegende umfassende validierte semi-empirische Modell von Blocken kann durch die Berücksichtigung der mesoklimatischen Verhältnisse in seiner Genauigkeit verbessert werden. / Sustainable architecture requires new building design, innovative constructions and the use of newly developed building materials. In order to determine the risk of moisture-related damages, computer programs for hygrothermal building part simulation are being used. If one develops such a simulation program, correct modelling of climatic boundary conditions plays an important role. When calculating the shortwave solar radiation flux density at an arbitrary building part on the basis of the shortwave solar radiation flux density on the horizontal surface, one must take into consideration the orientation and the inclination of the building part in order to preclude self-shading. The presented integral model allows the calculation and the programming in a hygrothermal simulation program. If only measured values of global radiation flux density are available, direct and diffuse parts can be determined very precisely by means of validated models. When calculating the longwave radiation balance on a building part, the needed values for the correct determination of atmospheric longwave radiation are hardly available. That’s why semi-empirical models will be applied. The longwave radiation flux density of the atmosphere can be determined on the basis of near-ground temperature and relative humidity and two cloud cover indices, which describe the longwave irradiative properties of the atmosphere by means of available shortwave radiation flux densities. Therewith, firstly an integral model is being presented in order to determine longwave radiation balance, which considers all possibilities of data availability. Most models for determination of driving rain load work with very bad accuracy. Other methods such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) are not possible for hygrothermal building part simulations because of the huge effort. The only fully validated semi-empirical model by Blocken can be improved, if meso-climatic boundary conditions are taken into consideration.