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Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:51:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T14:07:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Dissertação (Mestrado) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP

Orientador: Jonas Teixeira Nery / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Geociências / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-23T03:11:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lima_BrunaReginadeOliveira_M.pdf: 5584271 bytes, checksum: 41cf201c925e018fe8b0e68cee1cff69 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: A compreensão das dinâmicas climáticas tem sido de extrema importância, diante dos diversos desastres naturais (deslizamentos, inundações e secas), bem como para fornecer subsídios ao planejamento urbano, das grandes e médias cidades. Sabe-se que poluentes atmosféricos são agentes causadores da morbidez populacional, principalmente em crianças e idosos. Os sistemas meteorológicos e a dinâmica regional atmosférica tornam-se fundamentais para a dispersão de tais compostos, assim como ao bem estar e à saúde da população. Na ocorrência de estabilidade atmosférica como, por exemplo, na presença de uma inversão térmica, esses poluentes permanecem na atmosfera, ocasionando danos à saúde da população. O principal objetivo deste trabalho é evidenciar as concentrações de alguns poluentes na atmosfera urbana de Ourinhos/SP e identificar alguns sistemas atmosféricos que atuaram no período de coleta dos dados. Para tanto, foram levantadas as informações sobre os sistemas meteorológicos atuantes nos períodos de análises, assim como os resultados da quantificação dos compostos e gases (monóxido/dióxido de carbono e hidrocarbonetos policíclicos aromáticos). O período de análise foi entre 2011 e 2012. Em um segundo momento, foram analisados os dados coletados em uma campanha piloto realizada em Ourinhos, pelo Instituto de Pesquisas Meteorológicas (IPMet/UNESP), em agosto de 2010, intitulada "O impacto das queimadas de cana de açúcar na qualidade do ar na região de Ourinhos/SP", a qual envolveu vários pesquisadores e universidades do estado de São Paulo. Apesar dos períodos serem diferentes, tanto da compreensão da variabilidade climática e da qualidade do ar, quanto da campanha, a análise se complementa no intuito de conhecer e investigar o comportamento dos poluentes e gases na atmosfera local, além de compreender como a dinâmica climática regional influencia na dispersão e na concentração de tais partículas. Ao analisar os resultados obtidos através das coletas de dados, foi possível inferir que para esses compostos e gases investigados (hidrocarbonetos, monóxido e dióxido de carbono), as concentrações estiveram abaixo dos limites considerados prejudiciais a saúde da população. Ressalta-se ainda que ocorreram oscilações das concentrações entre os períodos de inverno e verão. Os valores mais elevados não ultrapassaram os limites seguros em relação à morbidez populacional em Ourinhos/SP. Dessa maneira, espera-se que esta pesquisa forneça alicerces para futuros estudos, bem como caracterizar a cidade de Ourinhos dentro da dinâmica climática regional / Abstract: The understanding of climate dynamics has been extremely important, due to the various natural disasters (landslides, floods and droughts), as well as to provide assistance for the urban planning of large and medium towns. It is a well-known fact that air pollutants are responsible for population morbidity, especially in children and in the elderly. Consequently, the weather systems and regional atmospheric dynamics become crucial with respect to the dispersion of aerosols and trace gases, as well as for the welfare and health of the population. However, if the atmosphere is in a stable condition (e.g., as a result of a temperature inversion), these pollutants remain trapped in the atmosphere, having a possible impact on the health of the population. The main objective of this research is to determine the concentrations of some pollutants in the urban atmosphere of Ourinhos/SP and to identify the atmospheric systems that prevailed during the period of data collection. Therefore, information about the weather systems active during the periods of analysis was collected, also including some results quantifying the chemical compounds and gases (carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons). The analysis period spans the years of 2011 and 2012. In a subsequent phase of this study, data collected during a pilot campaign, organized by the Meteorological Research Institute (IPMet/UNESP) during August 2010 in Ourinhos, was also discussed. The multi-disciplinary project, entitled "The impact of emissions from sugar cane fires on the air quality in the region of Ourinhos, SP", comprised the participation of researchers from several universities in the state of São Paulo. Although the periods investigated were different, the analyses are complementary for a better understanding of the behavior of pollutants and compounds in the local atmosphere, including the regional climate dynamic influences on the dispersion and concentration of such particles. As results of data analysis, the concentration of chemical compounds and gases (carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons), were below the limits considered harmful to health. Also that the concentration between the winter and summer periods, did not exceed the safe limits of population morbidity in Ourinhos/SP. Thus, it is anticipated that this research provides some groundwork for future studies, as well as characterizing the air quality based on climate dynamics, combining aspects of different nature, with emphasis on the society in the district of Ourinhos / Mestrado / Análise Ambiental e Dinâmica Territorial / Mestra em Geografia

MENVSC (Geography) / Department of Geography and Geo-Information Sciences / Rainfall is undoubtedly the most significant factor for life’s continuity. South Africa is prone to future climate uncertainties due to global climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate rainfall variability and change in South Africa on a present day (1976-2005), near-future (2006-2035) and far-future (2036-2065) climate. For the study, 3 RCMs (REMO2009, RCA4 and CCLM4-8-17), forming part of CORDEX-Africa project were nested within 5 different CIMP5_GCMs of low resolution. GPCC precipitation, NOAA GHCN_CAMS Land Temperature and other NCEP reanalysis products were useful in validating models in simulations of present-day climate. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios from IPCC-AR5 were used for future climate projections. On the validation, each regional climate model displayed different signature on simulations, rainfall in particular because this is a variable that is affected most by sub-grid process. Simulations nested within MIROC5 simulated more precipitation than simulations forced with other GCMs, due to more large-scale moisture convergence into the nested domain. There were differences in projections of RCM nested within the same GCM, as well as with the same RCM nested within different GCMs, on the future. Models nested within MPI project wetter conditions over the eastern parts of Limpopo, while the other two projected drier conditions in the same area. REMO2009 forced on MPI uniquely projected drying of Western Cape throughout the seasons on both RCPs and futures. Simulations conducted with the RCP8.5 scenario forcing are generally found to be associated with either a larger increase in temperature, or an increase in area associated with higher temperature increases. CCLM4-8-17 forced on HadGEM2 projected below average temperatures over the northwest parts of the country under the RCP8.5 scenarios. MPI driving model projected a general reduction of evaporation values, with lowest over northeast, northwest parts and south coastal parts of South Africa, in contrary to adjacent oceans. In this study, we have sought to identify the sources of uncertainties amongst model simulations between either the RCMs or the driving GCMs. / NRF