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The impact of climate change on human security in South AfricaRabie, Elsa 03 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MA (Political Science))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change is conclusive that climate change will
lead to scarcity of the basic resources that sustain life for people around the world – fresh water
supplies, food production and land for habitation and cultivation. It is argued that environmental
scarcity leads to migration which in turn results in conflict in the receiving area as competition
over resources develops.
Based on the main theories relating to resource scarcity and conflict, the purpose of this study is
to examine the link between climate change and human security. The relevance of this research
is the fact that the Stern Review concludes that climate change poses a serious threat to the world
and that Africa will be one of the hardest hit continents. Africa is already vulnerable to climate
variability and has the least capacity to respond, and this study aims to establish the impacts of
resource scarcity on human security in South Africa.
The theoretical approach addresses the much debated concept of ‘human security’ as it has
developed since the end of the Cold War and the analysis is based on the main conflict theories
that maintain that competition over access to scarce resources is one of the root causes of violent
conflict. The research design for this study is of an empirical nature with the units of analysis
being states, physical events and processes and the resulting human actions. It is a descriptive
analysis, interpreting the impact of climate change on scarce resources and the resulting
propensity for conflict.
Much of the violence against migrants has been the result of varying degrees of xenophobia
amongst all racial groups in South Africa. This study proposes the hypothesis that migration
results in increased competition over scarce resources in receiving areas, which as a result of
xenophobia leads to conflict. Based on the theoretical arguments put forward, the paper aims to
determine what policy options for adaptation, mitigation and governance would be most likely to
reduce the harmful impacts of climate change on vulnerable regions and groups of people in
South Africa and neighbouring countries in order to contain migration and lessen the likelihood
of violent conflict.
Having identified xenophobia as a spark that could ignite violent inter-group conflict it would be
useful to gain some theoretical insight into reducing group prejudice and attaining group
cooperation through inter-group contact.
It is apparent that there is no single theoretical approach that can be applied to gain a better
insight into the complex link between resource scarcity and conflict. The different theories are
mutually compatible and each theoretical perspective contributes a partial elaboration to and
additional insights into the climate change/conflict hypothesis. There is possibly room for a new
theoretical approach to gain a better understanding of the complexity and the uncertainties that
are inherent in the study of a mechanism as complex as climate change.
South Africa has the responsibility to use its global political influence to promote a shared
understanding of responsible behaviour across all societies. Active participation will enable
South Africa to guide global negotiations towards outcomes that will lessen the impact of climate
change on the most vulnerable countries and populations. In conclusion, possible policies and
actions are identified that could support these objectives. Without urgent, appropriate
intervention climate change will undermine any efforts to achieve the Millennium Development
Goals, and a crippled African continent will be a threat to world security.
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Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Maize (Zea may) production in Makhuduthamaga Local Municipality, Limpopo Province, South Africa.Matimolane, Selelo Wilson 21 September 2018 (has links)
MENVSC (Geography) / Department of Geography and Geo-Information Sciences / Climate variability and change directly affect agricultural production. This is because the agricultural sector is inherently sensitive to climatic conditions and is one of the most vulnerable sectors to risks and impact of global climate change. The aim of this study was to determine maize producer's vulnerability and assess the impact of climate variability and change on maize production in the Makhuduthamaga Local Municipality, of Limpopo Province, South Africa. Climatic and maize yields data utilized in the study are for the period 1985 - 2015). Interviews were also conducted with the producers and various officials from government and non-governmental sectors.
The results illustrate significant rainfall and temperature variations both spatially and temporally. The variations observed in the average rainfall and rain days for the period under consideration were not related to the variation in yield of maize for the same period. The regression results revealed low R² values, indicating a weak relationship between maize yields, rain days and rainfall. Furthermore, the results revealed a significant positive relationship between annual rainfall and temperature (r²<0.05 and P<0.05) but not a significant relationship with maize yields.
The results of the qualitative data showed that the producers’ perception of the occurrence of climate variability was high, as 65.7% of the respondents indicated that the state of climate is increasingly variable. About 61.5% of the producers implemented or adopted an adaptation strategy to cope with the perceived climate variability and change. Age, gender and access to extension services were determined as important factors that determine the adoption of adaptation strategies. The vulnerability assessment revealed that producers were highly vulnerable to changing climate; this exposes producers to the risks of crop failure, loss of income and food insecurity. The study recommended (a) intervention and adaptation strategies that target mitigation of decreased rainfall impacts (b) increased access to extension service (c) empirical research around the impacts of climate change to increase producers’ level of awareness. / NRF
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Rainfall variability and change in South Africa (1976-2065)Ncube, Tisang Manabalala 20 September 2019 (has links)
MENVSC (Geography) / Department of Geography and Geo-Information Sciences / Rainfall is undoubtedly the most significant factor for life’s continuity. South Africa is prone to future climate uncertainties due to global climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate rainfall variability and change in South Africa on a present day (1976-2005), near-future (2006-2035) and far-future (2036-2065) climate. For the study, 3 RCMs (REMO2009, RCA4 and CCLM4-8-17), forming part of CORDEX-Africa project were nested within 5 different CIMP5_GCMs of low resolution. GPCC precipitation, NOAA GHCN_CAMS Land Temperature and other NCEP reanalysis products were useful in validating models in simulations of present-day climate. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios from IPCC-AR5 were used for future climate projections. On the validation, each regional climate model displayed different signature on simulations, rainfall in particular because this is a variable that is affected most by sub-grid process. Simulations nested within MIROC5 simulated more precipitation than simulations forced with other GCMs, due to more large-scale moisture convergence into the nested domain. There were differences in projections of RCM nested within the same GCM, as well as with the same RCM nested within different GCMs, on the future. Models nested within MPI project wetter conditions over the eastern parts of Limpopo, while the other two projected drier conditions in the same area. REMO2009 forced on MPI uniquely projected drying of Western Cape throughout the seasons on both RCPs and futures. Simulations conducted with the RCP8.5 scenario forcing are generally found to be associated with either a larger increase in temperature, or an increase in area associated with higher temperature increases. CCLM4-8-17 forced on HadGEM2 projected below average temperatures over the northwest parts of the country under the RCP8.5 scenarios. MPI driving model projected a general reduction of evaporation values, with lowest over northeast, northwest parts and south coastal parts of South Africa, in contrary to adjacent oceans. In this study, we have sought to identify the sources of uncertainties amongst model simulations between either the RCMs or the driving GCMs. / NRF
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Simulating South African Climate with a Super parameterized Community Atmosphere Model (SP-CAM)Dlamini, Nohlahla January 2019 (has links)
MENVSC / Department of Geography and Geo-Information Sciences / The process of cloud formation and distribution in the atmospheric circulation system is very
important yet not easy to comprehend and forecast. Clouds affect the climate system by
controlling the amount of solar radiation, precipitation and other climatic variables. Parameterised
induced General Circulation Model (GCMs) are unable to represent clouds and aerosol particles
explicitly and their influence on the climate and are thought to be responsible for most of the
uncertainty in climate predictions. Therefore, the aim of the study is to investigate the climate of
South Africa as simulated by Super Parameterised Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM) for
the period of 1987-2016. Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) and SPCAM datasets used in the
study were obtained from Colorado State University (CSU), whilst dynamic and thermodynamic
fields were obtained from the NCEP reanalysis ll. The simulations were compared against rainfall
and temperature observations obtained from the South African Weather Service (SAWS)
database. The accuracy of the model output from CAM and SPCAM was tested in simulating
rainfall and temperature at seasonal timescales using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). It
was found that CAM overestimates rainfall over the interior of the subcontinent during December
- February (DJF) season whilst SPCAM showed a high performance in depicting summer rainfall
particularly in the central and eastern parts of South Africa. During June – August (JJA), both
configurations (CAM and SPCAM) had a dry bias with simulating winter rainfall over the south
Western Cape region in cases of little rainfall in the observations. CAM was also found to
underestimate temperatures during DJF with SPCAM results closer to the reanalysis. The study
further analyzed inter-annual variability of rainfall and temperature for different homogenous
regions across the whole of South Africa using both configurations. It was found that SPCAM had
a higher skill than CAM in simulating inter-annual variability of rainfall and temperature over the
summer rainfall regions of South Africa for the period of 1987 to 2016. SPCAM also showed
reasonable skill simulating (mean sea level pressure, geopotential height, omega etc) in contrast
to the standard CAM for all seasons at the low and middle levels (850 hPa and 500 hPa). The
study also focused on major El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and found that SPCAM
tended to compare better in general with the observations. Although both versions of the model
still feature substantial biases in simulating South African climate variables (rainfall, temperature,
etc), the magnitude of the biases are generally smaller in the super parameterized CAM than the
default CAM, suggesting that the implementation of the super parameterization in CAM improves
the model performance and therefore seasonal climate prediction. / NRF
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Exploring the impacts of climate variability on urban food security in female headed households in KwaZulu-Natal, a study of Durban South AfricaMkhondo, Penelope Sarona January 2017 (has links)
A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Geography.
24 March 2017 / There is substantial evidence to show that the climate has been changing on various scales across the world. The change in climate conditions has had negative impacts for developing countries, particularly poorer communities who use climate-sensitive resources such as urban agriculture which is prone to extreme weather. It is evident that urban agriculture has become a major source of income for a lot of people and its contribution to household food security is significant and in many instances it is increasing. The MSc study investigated the implications of climate variability and change on food production focusing on urban agriculture. It was also of key interest to explore the different adaptive approaches that FHH employ in reducing the impacts thereof. The approach informing the study combined two approaches; firstly, the `bottom-up' participatory research undertaken in three communities namely Inanda, Ntuzuma and Kwamashu; secondly, a rapid appraisal of policies, programs and institutions. The results were then triangulated using a micro-action planning workshop and a consultation process. A total of 84 small scale farmers who are actively involved in subsistence farming participated in the research study. From the empirical findings it is evident that climate change has manifested itself in floods and droughts and has been ranked extremely prevalent and frequent by 75% and 86% of the overall responses from the three study sites. The combination of these two extreme events has had negative impacts on food production and food accessibility. However, it has been found that FHH use asset based adaptation to modify and adjust their livelihoods as a way of coping with established threats. The eThekwini municipality has developed the Municipal Climate Change Protection Programme (eTMCCPP) with the purpose to mainstream climate change adaptation in the general city planning and development framework as well as to harmonize local urban responses to climate variability. However, only 48% of the participants have received any form of assistance and support from the Municipality. More needs to be done to help build capacity at household level and improve livelihoods of the local community particularly of Female headed households. / MT 2017
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Influence of climate change on flood and drought cycles and implications on rainy season characteristics in Luvuvhu River CatchmentDagada, K. 18 September 2017 (has links)
MESHWR / Department of Hydrology and Water Resources / This study dealt with the influence of climate variability on flood and drought cycles and implications on
rainy season characteristics in Luvuvhu River Catchment (LRC) in Limpopo of South Africa. Extreme
weather events resulting in hazards such as floods and droughts are becoming more frequent due to
climate change. Extreme events affect rainy season characteristics and hence have an influence on water
availability and agricultural production. Annual temperature was obtained from Water Research
Commission for stations 0723485W, 0766628W and 0766898W from 1950-2013 were used to show/or
confirm if there is climate variability in LRC. Daily rainfall data was obtained from SAWS for stations
0766596 9, 0766563 1, 0723485 6 and 0766715 5 were used to detect climate variability and determine
the onset, duration and cessation of the rainy season. Streamflow data obtained from the Department of
Water and Sanitation for stations A9H004, A9H012, and A9H001 for at least a period of 30 years for
each station were used for climate variability detection and determination of flood and drought cycles.
Influence of climate variability on floods and droughts and rainy season characteristic were determined in
the area of study. Trends were evaluated for temperature, rainfall and streamflow data in the area of study
using Mann Kendall (MK) and linear regression (LR) methods. MK and LR detected positive trends for
temperature (maximum and minimum) and streamflow stations. MK and LR results of rainfall stations
showed increasing trends for stations 0766596 9, and 0766563 1 whereas stations 0723485 6 and
0766715 5 showed decreasing trends. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to determine floods
and droughts cycles. SPI results have been classified either as moderately, severely and extremely
dry or, moderately, very and extremely wet. This SPI analysis provides more details of
dominance of distinctive dry or wet conditions for a rainy season at a particular station. Mean
onset of rainfall varied from day 255 to 297, with 0766715 5 showing the earliest onset compared to the
rest of the stations. Cessation of rainfall for most of the hydrological years was higher than the mean days
of 88, 83 and 86 days in 0766596 9, 0766563 1 and 0723485 6 stations. Mean duration of rainfall varied
from 102 to 128, with station 0766715 5 showing shortest duration of rainfall. The results of the study
showed that the mean onset, duration and cessation were comparable for all stations except 0766715 5
which had lower values. The study also found that climate variability greatly affects onset, duration and
cessation of rainfall during dry years. This led to late onset, early cessation and relatively short duration
of the rainfall season. Communities within the catchment must be educated to practice activities
such as conservation of indigenous plants, reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
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Adaptation strategies for climate change-induced household food and nutrition insecurity in smallholder maize farming within Thulamela Local Municipality, South AfricaMahlawule, Khanyisa Dorris 18 September 2017 (has links)
MRDV / Institute for Rural Development / See the attached abstract below
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Estimation of the emissions of gases from a two landfill sites using the LandGEM and Afvalzorg models: Case study of the Weltervenden (Polokwane) and Thohoyandou landfillsNjoku, Prince Obinna 21 September 2018 (has links)
MENVSC / Department of Ecology and Resource Management / Over the years it has been observed that the solid waste sector has been an increasingly major contributor to the amount of Greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. To some extent a great chunk of these GHGs in the atmosphere is from Landfill gas (LFG). This study employs two theoretical models (LandGEM and Afvalzorg models) to estimate the amount of LFG emitted from Weltervenden and Thohoyandou landfill sites located in Limpopo province of South Africa. Furthermore, the study investigated the appropriate technique of the LFG utilisation as a source of electricity and the number of households using electricity. LFGcost model was used to estimate the cost and benefits related to the implementation of a LFG utilisation technology. Also, the possible health and environmental impacts of the landfill emissions on the people living closer to the landfill site were determined.
The LandGEM model’s simulation concludes that CH4 and CO2 peaked in the year 2020 with values of 3.323 × 103 Mg/year and 9.118 × 103 Mg/year, respectively, for the Thohoyandou landfill. Results from the Afvalzorg model indicate that the CH4 peaked in the year 2020 with value of 3.501 × 103 Mg/year. Meanwhile the total emission of CH4 from 2005-2040 by the LandGEM and Afvalzorg models are 66200 Mg/year and 69768 Mg/year, respectively. However, for the Weltervenden landfill, the total LFG peaked in the year 2023 while the CH4 peak at 4061 Mg/year and 3128 Mg/year for LandGEM and Afvalzorg models, respectively.
Furthermore, results from the cost analysis and benefits for the implementation of a LFG utilisation technology in both landfills show that the implementation of such a utilisation technology will be economically feasible considering the sale of t CO2 equivalent in the carbon market. However, without considering the sales of t CO2 equivalent, not all the LFG engines are economically feasible for both landfills.
This study also shows that the residents living closer to the Thohoyandou landfill are at a higher risk of environmental pollution and could suffer negative impacts from the landfill than residents living far from the landfill site. However, the Weltervenden landfill did not have lots of communities living closer to the landfill and therefore it was not included in this study. / NRF
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