A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science. School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies (GAES). Johannesburg, October 2017. / Climate and weather-related impacts have become widespread particularly affecting the tourism industry. Changes in the climate and weather lead to changes in tourist seasons, products and travel opportunities. Flooding has gained research attention over the past decade, since the destruction creates many challenges for tourism businesses. Floods are a growing global problem, increasing in terms of frequency of occurrence, property damages, business economic losses, and fatalities. South Africa has begun to experience many annual flood events both coastal and in-land, but the Limpopo Province has been declared as flood disaster area, since the increase in temperatures and precipitation. Interest now lies on how particular tourist destinations in the Limpopo Province can adapt to reduce flooding risks whilst increasing opportunities mainly for the economy. Debates around flooding costs, recovery processes, and adaptive capacities affirm to be more challenging for the tourism accommodation sector. The study aimed to explore the perceived flooding impacts on different types of tourist accommodation. Thus, to determine if floods hindered any tourist bookings, offerings, and tourist length of stay. The exploration verified the possible flood risks to vulnerable accommodation and no adequate adaptation plans. A purposeful sample of 145 tourist accommodation businesses located across three flood-prone regions of the Limpopo Province were selected to answer a semi-structured questionnaire to put across their flooding experiences from a management perspective. The semi-structured questionnaire was combined with telephone interviews and email responses. Coherent theme development within the theoretical framework was achieved through content analysis. Content analysis allowed for the critical discussion of deductive and inductive themes found in the results. Floods during peak-seasons threaten and affect tourist accommodation, leaving them behind in business. Those not affected benefit with increased tourist demand and new opportunities in the hospitality industry. Tourist accommodation businesses are exposed to flood risks and experience challenges to assess, recover and adapt from the direct and indirect impacts. Alongside the destruction of tourism in these regions, were concerns of the provision of flood mapping and flood management plans for tourism businesses. Wider flooding impacts on the environment and the surrounding local communities demonstrates a growing problem for the future. Key words: floods; tourist accommodation; flooding impacts; risks; opportunities; tourist demand; adaptation; flood recovery, flood mapping, flood management plans. / LG2018

MSc (Zoology)) / Department of Zoology

Thesis (M.Sc. (Geography)) -- University of Limpopo, 2019 / Floods are one of the major natural hazards that occur with devastating effects globally. South Africa is one of the countries that is affected as flooding frequently occurs at different sub-national scales and with devastating impacts on human settlements. The variability of the nature, impact and frequency of flood occurrence in the country has heightened interest in the assessment and determination of flooding vulnerability, particularly in areas that have been affected or are likely to be affected in the near future. Given the uncertainties surrounding flood occurrence and the enormous damages resulting from the events, this study sought to assess the vulnerability of settlements to floods in Ward 7 and 9 of Lephalale Local Municipality. To accomplish this, both primary and secondary sources of data were used in this study. A mixture of closed-ended and open-ended household questionnaire, which was administered to 133 and 227 randomly selected households in Ward 7 and 9 respectively was used. In addition, a vulnerability index was developed using an indicator approach in order to determine levels of flood vulnerability in the study areas. Indicators were identified, grouped and normalised using the standardization method, then weighted using pairwise comparison method. The various indicators were then aggregated through a linear summation method into a vulnerability index. This index was subsequently used to produce a vulnerability map showing the spatial pattern of the different flood vulnerability levels in the studied areas. The results reveal that socioeconomic as well as physical factors influence settlements’ vulnerability to flooding disasters. Furthermore, the vulnerability index map showed that Ward 7 was more vulnerable to flooding, with an average index of about 0.16 while Ward 9 was less vulnerable, with an average flood vulnerability index of 0,07. The vulnerability map also indicated that out of the total land area of 13.54km2 occupied by settlements in Ward 7, 9.38 km2 was very vulnerable, 2.27km2 highly vulnerable and 1.89km2 had low vulnerability. In Ward 9, about 4.44km2 of settlements land was experiencing low vulnerability while 29.96km2 experienced very low levels of vulnerability. The study concludes that the high vulnerability of Ward 7 was a result of an interplay of factors that include its nearness to the stream, a high proportion of low-lying land, land use type and high population densities. The results of this study can serve as a basis for targeting prioritization efforts, emergency response measures, and policy interventions at the ward level for minimizing flood disaster vulnerability in municipal areas. The study recommends that flood vulnerability assessments should integrate socio-economic characteristics with physical factors in order to adequately assess vulnerability and therefore enable municipalities to anticipate floods and plan for them. / University of Limpopo Staff Financial Assistance, Risk and Vulnerability Science Centre and VLIR

MSc (Statistics) / Department of Statistics / Haulage trucks and cross border traders cross through Beitbridge border post from landlocked countries such as Zimbabwe and Zambia for the sake of trading. Because of global warming, South Africa has lately been experiencing extreme weather patterns in the form of very high temperatures and heavy rainfall. Evidently, in 2013 tra c could not cross the Limpopo River because water was owing above the bridge. For planning, its important to predict the likelihood of such events occurring in future. Extreme value models o er one way in which this can be achieved. This study identi es suitable distributions to model the annual maximum heights of Limpopo river at Beitbridge border post. Maximum likelihood method and the Bayesian approach are used for parameter estimation. The r -largest order statistics was also used in this dissertation. For goodness of t, the probability and quantile- quantile plots are used. Finally return levels are calculated from these distributions. The dissertation has revealed that the 100 year return level is 6.759 metres using the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches to estimate parameters. Empirical results show that the Fr echet class of distributions ts well the ood heights data at Beitbridge border post. The dissertation contributes positively by informing stakeholders about the socio- economic impacts that are brought by extreme flood heights for Limpopo river at Beitbridge border post

MESHWR / Department of Hydrology and Water Resources / This study dealt with the influence of climate variability on flood and drought cycles and implications on rainy season characteristics in Luvuvhu River Catchment (LRC) in Limpopo of South Africa. Extreme weather events resulting in hazards such as floods and droughts are becoming more frequent due to climate change. Extreme events affect rainy season characteristics and hence have an influence on water availability and agricultural production. Annual temperature was obtained from Water Research Commission for stations 0723485W, 0766628W and 0766898W from 1950-2013 were used to show/or confirm if there is climate variability in LRC. Daily rainfall data was obtained from SAWS for stations 0766596 9, 0766563 1, 0723485 6 and 0766715 5 were used to detect climate variability and determine the onset, duration and cessation of the rainy season. Streamflow data obtained from the Department of Water and Sanitation for stations A9H004, A9H012, and A9H001 for at least a period of 30 years for each station were used for climate variability detection and determination of flood and drought cycles. Influence of climate variability on floods and droughts and rainy season characteristic were determined in the area of study. Trends were evaluated for temperature, rainfall and streamflow data in the area of study using Mann Kendall (MK) and linear regression (LR) methods. MK and LR detected positive trends for temperature (maximum and minimum) and streamflow stations. MK and LR results of rainfall stations showed increasing trends for stations 0766596 9, and 0766563 1 whereas stations 0723485 6 and 0766715 5 showed decreasing trends. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to determine floods and droughts cycles. SPI results have been classified either as moderately, severely and extremely dry or, moderately, very and extremely wet. This SPI analysis provides more details of dominance of distinctive dry or wet conditions for a rainy season at a particular station. Mean onset of rainfall varied from day 255 to 297, with 0766715 5 showing the earliest onset compared to the rest of the stations. Cessation of rainfall for most of the hydrological years was higher than the mean days of 88, 83 and 86 days in 0766596 9, 0766563 1 and 0723485 6 stations. Mean duration of rainfall varied from 102 to 128, with station 0766715 5 showing shortest duration of rainfall. The results of the study showed that the mean onset, duration and cessation were comparable for all stations except 0766715 5 which had lower values. The study also found that climate variability greatly affects onset, duration and cessation of rainfall during dry years. This led to late onset, early cessation and relatively short duration of the rainfall season. Communities within the catchment must be educated to practice activities such as conservation of indigenous plants, reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

MURP / Department of Urban and Regional Planning / Disaster is posing serious threats to both human lives, infrastructure and the environment at large. Greater Tzaneen Municipality (GTM) is one of the many municipalities that suffer from flood related disasters. Lack of integration between Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and spatial planning has compounded the disaster risk situation in the municipality. This study sought to investigate the prospects of integrating spatial planning with disaster risk reduction in flood prone areas of GTM. The study is guided by three research objectives. First, the study sought to analyse spatial planning attributes that can be valorised for DRR in flood prone areas; Secondly, it sought to analyse spatial planning factors that define vulnerability attributes of households occupying flood prone areas. Finally, the study sought to perform a cluster analytical creation of a typology of households whose resilience to flooding could be enhanced through spatial planning. Twenty-five flood prone areas were analysed on the basis of four main flood vulnerability attributes. In order to identify such vulnerability attributes, the study borrowed critical insights from literatures on flood vulnerability, spatial planning and DRR. Such a critical review of literature was complemented by the use of pattern matching as a qualitative research instrument. Quantitative that was gathered using a structured observation checklist. Quantitative data generated was first subjected to various statistical tests that included Normality and Reliability Tests. Common measures of Normality test used included measures of skewness, kurtosis and the use of Normal Q-Q plots. To assess flood vulnerability, Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) was used. HCA was used to identify clusters of flood prone areas which had common characteristics in terms of the four main study constructs proposed by the study which included the physical/engineering, socio-economic, ecological/natural and political or governance conditions characterizing each area. HCA was then used to identify main clusters exhibiting similar characteristics and the associated level of vulnerability of such of communities occupying such clusters. Study results revealed 2 main clusters of flood prone areas whose differences lay in interactions that existed between the physical/engineering, socio-economic, ecological/natural and political or governance conditions characterizing each area. Such clusters depicted 2 levels of vulnerability that is high, and moderate. A number of opportunities and constraints were generated using the SWOT matrix strategy with the main results showing that spatial planning elements characterizing flood prone areas could be transformed into critical urban risk management options for DRR. This is because a spatial planning elements were found to have a direct influences on critical factors of DRR such as location of activities. The study concluded by recommending a number of spatial planning strategies that can be vaporized for DRR. Such strategies are systematically aligned to the unique vulnerability context conditions associated with the two flood vulnerability solution arrived at using HCA. / NRF