My diploma work describes comparison of enterprise and tax environment in Germany and in Visegrad group (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland). The goal of my work is to compare mainly the West and East Germany and Visegrad group, as well as to compare the described countries each other. The main source used in the work is analysis of the European Bank for Research and Development considered the business environment in the investigated countries. This analysis is closely described in the first chapter. The short description of the tax system in Germany and Visegrad group can you find in the second chapter. I chose only the taxes, which significantly influence the business decision. In the third chapter, I realized the comparison of all described facts and tried to find relations between the investigated countries each other, as well as between the every single indicator (e. g. if the business environment depends on the macroeconomic environment, etc.).

La presente investigación analiza las variables determinantes y relacionadas en las exportaciones de jengibre fresco (Partida Arancelaria. 0910.11.00.00) de la República del Perú al Reino de los Países Bajos, comprendido en los años 2012 – 2019. En donde la inestabilidad de las exportaciones peruanas de jengibre ha desarrollado un interés para que sean analizadas en base a tres variables: entorno macroeconómico, competencia internacional y gestión de inocuidad alimentaria, desde un enfoque mixto. Este tendrá un alcance explicativo causal bajo un diseño transversal, en donde se aplicó un análisis de una regresión lineal múltiple, con el cual se planteó un modelo matemático predictivo de las variables aceptables, y un diseño fenomenológico aplicado a través de la guía de entrevistas de tipo semiestructuradas. Los resultados apuntan que, dentro del entorno macroeconómico, el precio es el indicador más influyente siendo las certificaciones orgánicas las que permiten que el producto salga con un mejor precio al mercado, ya que la demanda de Países Bajos así lo requiere. Dentro de competencia internacional, el indicador características del producto resalta apoyándose en la condición orgánica y las propiedades naturales del producto. Y finalmente, dentro de la variable gestión de inocuidad alimentaria destaca el indicador certificaciones de gestión de inocuidad, siendo las más importantes GlobalG.A.P. y HACCP. En conclusión, entorno macroeconómico es una variable determinante de las exportaciones de jengibre fresco, mientras que competencia internacional y gestión de inocuidad alimentaria son variables relacionadas a las exportaciones de jengibre fresco, los resultados indican que competencia internacional es la más relacionada, destacando dentro de ella el indicador características del producto. / The research aims to analyze the determinant and relevant variables in exports of fresh ginger (Harmonized system code 0910.11.00.00) from the Republic of Peru to the Kingdom of the Netherlands, between the years 2012 - 2019. The instability of Peruvian ginger exports has been developing, has created an interest in analyzing it based on three variables: macroeconomic environment, international competition, and food safety management, from a mixed methods research. This investigation will have a causal explanatory approach by a cross-sectional design, where is applied a multiple linear regression and is proposed a predictive mathematical model of the acceptable variables, and a phenomenological design through the interview guide of semi-structured type. The results indicate that in the macroeconomic environment, price is the most influenced indicator, where organic certifications are the ones that allow the product to come out with a better market price on the Netherlands market. Regarding international competition, the product features indicator is emphasized, by organic conditions and the natural properties of the product. Finally, in respect of the variable food safety management, it is enhanced through the indicator safety management certifications where GlobalG.A.P. and HACCP are the most important. In conclusion, the macroeconomic environment is a determinant variable of fresh ginger exports, while international competition and food safety management are related variables of fresh ginger exports. However, the results demonstrate, the international competition is the most relevant, highlighting the indicator product features. / Tesis

In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the way credit risk is affected by and affects the macroeconomic environment has been the focus of academics, risk practitioners and central bankers alike. In this thesis I approach three distinct questions that aim to provide valuable insight into how corporate defaults, recoveries and credit ratings interact with the conditions in the wider economy. The first question focuses on how well the macroeconomic environment forecasts corporate bond defaults. I approach the question from a macroeconomic perspective and I make full use of the multitude of lengthy macroeconomic time series available. Following the recent literature on data-rich environment modelling, I summarise a large panel of 103 macroeconomic time series into a small set of 6 dynamic factors; the factors capture business cycle, yield curve, credit premia and equity market conditions. Prior studies on dynamic factors use identification schemes based on principal components or recursive short-run restrictions. The main contribution to the body of existing literature is that I provide a novel and more robust identification scheme for the 6 macro-financial stochastic factors, based on a set of over-identifying restrictions. This allows for a more straightforward interpretation of the extracted factors and a more meaningful decomposition of the corporate default dynamics. Furthermore, I use a novel Bayesian estimation scheme based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that has not been used before in a credit risk context. I argue that the proposed algorithm provides an effcient and flexible alternative to the simulation based estimation approaches used in the existing literature. The sampling scheme is used to estimate a state-of-the-art dynamic econometric specification that is able to separate macro-economic fluctuations from unobserved default clustering. Finally, I provide evidence that the macroeconomic factors can lead to significant improvements in default probability forecasting performance. The forecasting performance gains become less pronounced the longer the default forecasting horizon. The second question explores the sensitivity of corporate bond defaults and recoveries on monetary policy and macro-financial shocks. To address the question, I follow a more structural approach to extract theory-based economic shocks and quantify the magnitude of the impact on the two main credit risk drivers. This is the first study that approaches the decomposition of the movements in credit risk metrics from a structural perspective. I introduce a VAR model with a novel semi-structural identification scheme to isolate the various shocks at the macro level. The dynamic econometric specification for defaults and recoveries is similar to the one used to address the first question. The specification is flexible enough to allow for the separation of the macroeconomic movements from the credit risk specific unobserved correlation and, therefore, isolate the different shock transmission mechanisms. I report that the corporate default likelihood is strongly affected by balance sheet and real economy shocks for the cyclical industry sectors, while the effects of monetary policy shocks typically take up to one year to materialise. In contrast, recovery rates tend to be more sensitive to asset price shocks, while real economy shocks mainly affect secured debt recovery values. The third question shifts the focus to credit ratings and addresses the Through-the- Cycle dynamics of the serial dependence in rating migrations. The existing literature treats the so-called rating momentum as constant through time. I show that the rating momentum is far from constant, it changes with the business cycle and its magnitude exhibits a non-linear dependence on time spent in a given rating grade. Furthermore, I provide robust evidence that the time-varying rating momentum substantially increases actual and Marked-to-Market losses in periods of stress. The impact on regulatory capital for financial institutions is less clear; nevertheless, capital requirements for high credit quality portfolios can be significantly underestimated during economic downturns.

Title: M&A activity and the macroeconomic environment - a quantitative study on the impact of the macroeconomic environment on aggregate merger and acquisition activity in the US Background: There is a lack of established theories on what drives M&A activity. A subject that has received much attention in literature but produced few compelling results. The full explanation of the dynamics of aggregate M&A activity has yet to be captured. An explanation which could provide useful insights for central banks, corporate managers and any other parties affected by this prominent feature of the US economy which have come to shape and dominate the corporate landscape. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the relationship between the dynamics of aggregate M&A activity and macroeconomic variables representing the state of the economy in the US. Method: The methodology that is used in the thesis is based on a deductive research approach with a quantitative research design. In addition, the thesis has also made use of a longitudinal panel research. The thesis hypotheses have been formulated using earlier research and existing theories about the subject of mergers and acquisitions as well as macroeconomic factors. Further on, the data set that has been analyzed consisted of 73137 transactions during the time period January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2020. Conclusion: The study finds that there are signs of relationships between macroeconomic variables and aggregate M&A activity, although the precise characteristics of these relationships has not been established. The result of the study indicates that the macroeconomic environment as a whole affects aggregate M&A activity and that it can be an important part of the explanation for the dynamics of aggregate M&A activity. It cannot be established that macroeconomic variables can be used to predict M&A activity, however there are interesting indications suggesting this might be the case.

Les banques sont des institutions à part, car elles sont au coeur du fonctionnement des économies et de la dynamique de croissance des pays. Leurs services représentent de ce fait un bien public, et il est donc primordial de les maintenir éloignées autant que possible du risque de faillite. Toutefois, des crises bancaires surviennent régulièrement et affectent les sociétés, souvent de manière durable et profonde, à l’image de la crise financière des subprimes qui a éclaté en 2007, et dont nous ne connaissons pas encore toutes les conséquences désastreuses. Pour prévenir le risque de faillite et de crises bancaires, les autorités de régulation nationales ont développé des filets de sécurité qui, en partie, suivent les standards internationaux de réglementation et de supervision bancaire développés par le Comité de Bâle sur le contrôle bancaire, sous l’égide de la Banque des Règlements Internationaux. Cependant, les crises récurrentes se produisent et nous montrent les limites de la régulation bancaire et, surtout, nous indiquent que celle-ci doit être en permanence revue et adaptée, de façon dynamique, à l’évolution des systèmes bancaires et de l’innovation financière. L’un des principaux objectifs est de s’assurer que les banques soient suffisamment et solidement capitalisées pour faire face à des pertes exceptionnelles inattendues. Par ailleurs, il est primordial, afin d’assurer une stabilité financière durable, que les superviseurs bancaires soient à même de contrôler efficacement les banques et d’entreprendre les actions nécessaires pour que ces dernières demeurent à des niveaux de risques engagés raisonnables et qui ne menacent ni leur solvabilité, ni celle de l’ensemble du système bancaire. Enfin, les banques sont censées être régulées par le marché (discipline de marché), sur la base des informations qu’elles sont tenues de divulguer publiquement, sur leur santé financière. Dans ces politiques de régulation bancaire et de prévention du risque de crise, il ne faut pas oublier le rôle de l’assureur dépôt, à qui certains économistes et instances internationales veulent prêter de plus en plus de pouvoir sur les banques. Nous montrons dans notre travail de thèse, à travers des analyses empiriques menées sur des données contemporaines, les insuffisances des politiques de régulation et de supervision bancaire, les erreurs commises dans l’approche de la régulation bancaire, et nous présentons les aspects qu’il serait souhaitable de prendre en compte, pour approcher une politique de réglementation et de supervision bancaire plus efficace, et dynamique, dans l’objectif de maintien de la stabilité bancaire. Nous avançons notamment qu’il est nécessaire de mieux prendre en compte la nature de l’activité des différents types d’institutions financières qui composent les systèmes bancaires, et dont la nature et le degré d’exposition aux risques ne sont pas les mêmes. Il est également important de considérer les caractéristiques de l’environnement institutionnel dans lequel évoluent les banques, de manière à développer une structure de supervision adaptée et efficace. En définitive, nous étudions dans cette thèse un large ensemble de déterminants économiques et institutionnels, susceptibles d’impacter la stabilité bancaire, de manière à identifier celles des politiques de régulation qu’il s’agirait de mettre en oeuvre, afin d’assurer dans l’avenir un meilleur maintien de la stabilité financière des banques. / Banks are special institutions because they are central to the functioning of economies and to economic growth. Their services represent a public good. Therefore, it is essential to keep them as far as possible from risk of bankruptcy. However, banking crises occur regularly and affect societies, often dramatically and over a long period, like the current subprime financial crisis which burst into 2007, and which consequences are still not very well perceived. To prevent the risk of bankruptcy and banking crisis, the national authorities of regulation have developed safety nets. These follow partially the international standards of regulation and banking supervision developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision under the aegis of the Bank for International Settlements. However, recurrent crises occur and show us the limits of the banking regulation and, especially, indicate that the latter should be continually revised and adapted to the evolution of banking systems and financial innovations. One of the main goals is to make sure that banks are enough capitalized to face unexpected large losses. In order to achieve long-lasting financial stability, it is essential that banking supervisors can monitor efficiently banks. By doing so, the risk taken by banks would be sustainable and would not threaten either their own solvency or the whole banking system solvency. Finally, banks are supposed to be regulated by the market (market discipline) on the basis of information about their financial health which should be disclosed publicly. Along the policies of banking regulation and crisis risk prevention, one should not forget the role of the deposit insurers. Indeed, some economists and international authorities want to attribute more power over banks to deposit insurers. In our research, the empirical analysis, based on contemporary data, show the weakness of the actual regulation and banking supervision policies and the mistakes in banking regulation. Different features of the banking system that should be taken into account for an efficient implementation of regulation and banking supervision policies are also discussed in this work. Hence, we suggest that the type of financial institutions' activities should be better taken into account as it changes with the degree of risk exposure. We also find that it is important to consider the characteristics of the institutional environment in which banks evolve in order to develop a suitable and efficient supervision agency. To summarize, we study in this thesis a large range of economic and institutional determinants of the banking system, which are likely to affect the banking stability. By doing so, we are able to identify the regulation policies which would be the most likely to preserve the financial stability of banks.