Recent spikes in oil prices have thrown light on how economic activity in emerging markets may be impacted by oil price shocks. This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on emerging markets. It tests for the existence of an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and economic activity using a model developed by James Hamilton. It also assesses the impact of structural shocks to the real price of oil on output as proposed by Lutz Kilian. While our models find no consistent pattern within emerging markets, they do suggest that oil price shocks have a greater significance in 2000-2009 than in the full sample of 1974-2009. We also find that emerging economies are impacted by changes in oil specific demand but unaffected by changes in aggregate demand for industrial commodities.

The paper investigates the relation between effective demand, income distribution and unemployment empirically. Its aim is to evaluate Keynesian, Kaldorian and neoclassical hypotheses about the determination of labor market variables. To do so, a vector autoregression model consisting of capital accumulation, capacity utilization, the profit share, unemployment and the growth of labor productivity is estimated. A general post-Keynesian model following the lines of Kalecki and Kaldor is presented and provides the specification for a structural VAR. The model is estimated for the USA, UK and France. (authors' abstract) / Series: Working Papers Series "Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness"

<p>This dissertation asks whether frequency misspecification of a New Keynesian model</p><p>results in temporal aggregation bias of the Calvo parameter. First, when a</p><p>New Keynesian model is estimated at a quarterly frequency while the true</p><p>data generating process is the same but at a monthly frequency, the Calvo</p><p>parameter is upward biased and hence implies longer average price duration.</p><p>This suggests estimating a New Keynesian model at a monthly frequency may</p><p>yield different results. However, due to mixed frequency datasets in macro</p><p>time series recorded at quarterly and monthly intervals, an estimation</p><p>methodology is not straightforward. To accommodate mixed frequency datasets,</p><p>this paper proposes a data augmentation method borrowed from Bayesian</p><p>estimation literature by extending MCMC algorithm with</p><p>"Rao-Blackwellization" of the posterior density. Compared to two alternative</p><p>estimation methods in context of Bayesian estimation of DSGE models, this</p><p>augmentation method delivers lower root mean squared errors for parameters</p><p>of interest in New Keynesian model. Lastly, a medium scale New Keynesian</p><p>model is brought to the actual data, and the benchmark estimation, i.e. the</p><p>data augmentation method, finds that the average price duration implied by</p><p>the monthly model is 5 months while that by the quarterly model is 20.7</p><p>months.</p> / Dissertation

<p>This dissertation presents two essays on Markov-Switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models.</p><p>The first essay is "Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching Models," which is co-authored with Juan Rubio-Ramirez, Dan Waggoner, and Tao Zha. This essay develops an perturbation-based approach to solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with Markov-Switching, which implies that parameters governing policies or the environment evolve over time in a discrete manner. Our approach has the advantages that it introduces regime switching from first principles, allows for higher-order approximations, shows non-certainty equivalence of first-order approximations, and allows checking the solution for determinacy. We explain the model setup, introduce an iterative procedure to solve the model, and illustrate it using a real business cycle example.</p><p>The second essay considers a model with financial frictions and studies the role of expectations and unconventional monetary policy during financial crises. During a financial crisis, the financial sector has</p><p>reduced ability to provide credit to productive firms, and the central bank may help lessen the magnitude of the downturn by using unconventional monetary policy to inject liquidity into credit markets. The model allows agents in the economy to expect policy changes by allowing parameters to change according to a Markov process, so agents have expectations about the probability of the central bank intervening during a crisis, and also have expectations about the central bank's exit strategy post-crisis. </p><p>Using this Markov Regime Switching specification, the paper addresses three issues. First, it considers the effects of different exit strategies, and shows that, after a crisis, if the central bank sells off its accumulated assets too quickly, the economy can experience a double-dip recession. Second, it analyzes the effects of expectations of intervention policy on pre-crisis behavior. In particular, if the central bank commits to always intervening during crises, there is a loss of output in pre-crisis times relative to if the central bank commits to never intervening. Finally, it considers the welfare implications of committing to intervening during crises, and shows that committing can raise or lower welfare depending upon the exit strategy used, and that committing before a crisis can be welfare decreasing but then welfare increasing once a crisis occurs.</p> / Dissertation

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Wollongong, 2009. / Typescript. Includes bibliographical references: leaf 172-197.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 2003. / Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 139-142). Also available for download via the World Wide Web; free to University of Oregon users.

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This dissertation consists of three essays on income risk and aggregate demand over the business cycle, each addressing an aspect of the Great Recession. The first chapter reframes the standard liquidity trap model to illustrate the costly feedback loop between idiosyncratic risk and aggregate demand. I first show that a liquidity trap can result from excess demand for precautionary savings in times of high uncertainty. Second, I show that the output and welfare costs of the ensuing recession depend crucially on how the drop in demand for output is translated into a reduction in demand for labor. Increased unemployment risk compounds the original rise in idiosyncratic productivity risk and reinforces precautionary motives, deepening the recession. Third, I show that increasing social insurance can raise output and welfare at the zero bound. I decompose these effects to distinguish the component unique to the liquidity trap environment and show that social insurance is most effective at the zero bound when it targets the type of idiosyncratic risk households face, which in turns depends on the labor market adjustment mechanism. The second paper offers a novel model of the connection between the consumer credit and home mortgage markets through an individual’s credit history. This paper introduces a novel justification for the home mortgage interest deduction. In an economy with both housing assets and consumer credit, the mortgage interest deduction is modeled as a subsidy for the accumulation of collateralizable assets by households who have maintained good credit. As such, the subsidy loosens participation constraints and facilitates risk-sharing. Empirical evidence and a calibration exercise reveal that the subsidy has a sizable impact on the availability of credit. The third paper assesses the role of policy uncertainty in the Great Recession. The Great Recession features substantial geographic variation in employment losses, a fact that is often presented as a challenge to uncertainty-based models of the downturn. In this paper we show that there is a substantial correlation between the distribution of employment losses and the increases in local measures of both economic and policy uncertainty. This relationship is robust across a wide range of measures. / Economics

This dissertation consists of three independent chapters, each of which use microeconomic data and methods to inform an analysis of macroeconomic models and questions. The first two chapters study the short-run dynamics of housing markets, while the last chapter studies fluctuations in labor markets. / Economics