Flood events have caused detrimental impacts to humans' lives and anthropogenic climate change is anticipated to exacerbate the impact. It has been recognized that a long-term planning through risk-based optimization of flood defence will lead to a cost-effective solution for managing flood risk, but the prevailing assumption of stationarity may lead to an erroneous solution. In attempt to investigate the potential impact of the uncertain underlying statistical characteristics of extreme flow series to flood protection decisions, this research explores risk-based flood protection decisions in the context of climatic variability and change. In particular, the implications of persistence series and nonstationarity were investigated through hypothetical and real case studies. Monte Carlo simulation approach was adopted to capture the uncertainty due to the natural variability. For persistence model, AR(1) was integrated with the GEV model to simulate extreme flow series with persistence. To test the effects of nonstationary, GEV models with a linear location parameter and time as covariate were adopted. Rational decision makers' behaviours were simulated through a designed decision analysis framework. One of the main findings from the research is that the traditional stationary assumption should remain the basic assumption due to insignificant difference of the decisions' economic performance. However, exploration of the nonstationarity assumption enabled identification of options that are robust to climate uncertainties. It is also found that optimized protection of combined measures of flood defence and property-level protection may provide a cost-effective solution for local flood protection. Overall, the simulation and case studies enlighten practitioners and decision makers with new evidence, and may guide to practical enhancement of long term flood risk management decision making.

The main aim of this research is to develop a conceptual model that describes the way managers make decisions about internationalizing. It also tries to explain under what conditions managers will be risk-seekers and under what conditions they will be risk-averse, and as a result which groups of strategies and tools they will choose to use when internationalizing. This investigation focuses on the field of behavioural economics in opposition to leading paradigms in the IB field that concentrate on the neoclassical economic theory. This research uses an interdisciplinary approach that combines the behavioural economics approach and theories drawn from the field of entrepreneurship, IB, market relations, industrial organization, RBV and institutional theory, in order to develop a comprehensive theoretical framework that can explain from the senior manager's perspective when and why s/he chooses certain variables and not others. The findings link the manager's perception of his position vis-à-vis his industry reference point (IRP are defined as any variable that highlights a particular objective, seems capable of establishing a reference point, and as a result, creates a framework for organizational/individual decision making) and his decision making in the area of risk management, learning, and product adaption and development. The findings indicate that managers below their IRP display innovation when developing new marketing/distribution channels, and share their knowledge with partners. Nevertheless, they demonstrate low awareness of risk management. In contrast, managers above their IRP focus on the organization's existing technology and marketing and distribution channels and avoid adjusting their products to the market needs and sharing knowledge with distributors. On the other hand, they adopt an active risk management strategy.Additionally we link between the manager's perceptions of his position vis-à-vis his IRP and his choice of entry mode strategy. The findings indicate that a number of differences exist between managers below their IRP and managers above their IRP. Managers below their IRP use positioning strategies but use TCA or institutional strategies very little. In contrast, managers above their IRP use TCA or institutional strategies but will hardly use positioning strategies at all. The two types of managers use network strategy and RBV, but each group uses different factors within the theories. The research makes a number of important contributions to study of the IB sphere, particularly to the fields of research relating to the internationalization of BG companies, which is a relatively new field of knowledge. Today there is no comprehensive theoretical framework explaining the way BG companies internationalize and the reasons they choose one strategy or tool over another when entering foreign markets. The present research attempts to establish a conceptual model that describes the way managers make internationalization decisions. It does so by importing a new discipline from the field of behavioural economics into the IB field, which is deeply wedded to the tradition of neo-classical economics and integrates it with existing strategies in the field to create a conceptual model that mediates between traditional IB research and the BG research stream.

Data quality is an important aspect of an organisation’s strategies for supporting decision makers in reaching the best decisions possible and consequently attaining the organisation’s objectives. In the case of public organisations, decisions ultimately concern the public and hence further diligence is required to make sure that these decisions do, for instance, preserve economic resources, maintain public health, and provide national security. The decision making process requires a wealth of information in order to achieve efficient results. Public organisations typically acquire great amounts of data generated by public services. However, the vast amount of data stored in public organisations’ databases may be one of the main reasons for inefficient decisions made by public organisations. Processing vast amounts of data and extracting accurate information are not easy tasks. Although technology helps in this respect, for example, the use of decision support systems, it is not sufficient for improving decisions to a significant level of assurance. The research proposed using data mining to improve results obtained by decision support systems. However, more considerations are needed than the mere technological aspects. The research argues that a complete data quality framework is needed in order to improve data quality and consequently the decision making process in public organisations. A series of surveys conducted in seven public organisations in Abu Dhabi Emirate of the United Arab Emirates contributed to the design of a data quality framework. The framework comprises elements found necessary to attain the quality of data reaching decision makers. The framework comprises seven elements ranging from technical to human-based found important to attain data quality in public organisations taking Abu Dhabi public organisations as the case. The interaction and integration of these elements contributes to the quality of data reaching decision makers and hence to the efficiency of decisions made by public organisations. The framework suggests that public organisations may need to adopt a methodological basis to support the decision making process. This includes more training courses and supportive bodies of the organisational units, such as decision support centres, information security and strategic management. The framework also underscores the importance of acknowledging human and cultural factors involved in the decision making process. Such factors have implications for how training and raising awareness are implemented to lead to effective methods of system development.

Ph.D. (Business Management) / Please refer to full text to view abstract

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The worldwide technological explosion has dramatically changed the basis of international competition. The accelerated rate of change in product engineering and process technology has led to decreasing product life cycles and made equipment obsolescence a primary concern to U.S. manufacturers. Researchers in academia, industry, and the government have unanimously agreed on the primary role that the investment in advanced manufacturing technologies (AMT, eg., Flexible Manufacturing Systems) can play in meeting the challenges of the new global business environment. However, U.S. manufacturing technology is still lagging far behind U.S. innovation , and many U.S. firms are practically unable to justify the needed modernization. Many authors have written about the necessity to account for strategic, long-term benefits associated with acquiring new AMT’s in order for U.S. manufacturers to justify more easily, and more realistically, their investment decisions. However, most of these authors have overlooked the fact that the decision to acquire a new AMT is most likely to displace existing resources, and that unless manufacturers are offered a tool to evaluate the impact of abandoning obsolete or less-than-profitable products and/or processes and justify such a decision, the needed modernization process will continue to be hindered. The objective of this research is bifold. First, the product/process abandonment problem is reformulated from a new perspective which is congruent with the requirements of the new global business environment. And second, a global decision model (GDM) incorporating the product abandonment option into the company’s overall strategic planning and control system is developed which seeks to help U.S. manufacturers make world-class capital expenditure decisions. To this end, an extensive taxonomic analysis was first conducted to investigate the product abandonment analysis topic as treated in the literature of engineering economy, financial management, management accounting, marketing, strategic management, and corporate organizational and behavioral sciences. The product abandonment problem is then reformulated in view of both the strengths and shortcomings of traditional models and the requirements of the new business environment. Finally, the developed solution methodology is described, implemented as a computer program, and illustrated through an actual case-study. The GDM is governed by an abandonment algorithm and a multi-attribute decision module (MADM) which are interfaced in a highly interactive mode. The proposed abandonment algorithm uses a recursive dynamic programming search method to determine at each decision point in the project life cycle whether it is more profitable to abandon a product or to continue its operations for one more time period. The MADM translates various strategic objectives of the company, financial and non-financial, into quantifiable performance measures and ranks alternative improvement portfolios. Production simulation techniques and activity-based costing (ABC) are suggested to collect the needed input data for the model. Preference ordering theory is used to account for management’s attitude toward risk and make trade-offs between project profitability and riskiness. Once a course of action is selected, its performance must be continuously monitored and controlled in view of pre-specified strategic performance targets. The results obtained from the analysis of the case study confirmed the economic validity of the philosophy underlying the developed solution methodology as well as the ease of application of such a methodology to a wide range of real-life problems. They also demonstrated the benefits that a company can forgo by ignoring the abandonment option throughout the product life cycle. In conclusion, the developed model is believed to be a sophisticated, yet practical, tool which can help engineering managers reach more informed, and therefore more competitive, decisions about their firms’ portfolio of products. Furthermore, pertinent recommendations were made to direct future research regarding this subject matter. / Ph. D.

Thesis (PhD(Agric) (Agriculture))--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The concept of social welfare maximisation directs strategic decision-making within a milieu of integrated planning problems. This study applies the aforementioned statement to decision-making regarding the long-term allocation of bulk-water resources in the Berg Water Management Area of South Africa. Public goods, such as bulk water supply infrastructure, is vulnerable to failures in market and government allocation strategies because both fields are subjected to unaccounted costs and benefits. This implies a measurement problem for the quantification of the total cost/benefit of management options and result in decision-making with incomplete information. Legitimate decision-making depends on reliable and accurate information, and the measurement problem, therefore, poses an obstacle to better social welfare maximisation. A need has been identified to broaden the decision-making context in the Berg Water Management Area to promote the accommodation of unaccounted for costs and benefits in water resource allocation decision-making. This study engaged this need by expanding the temporal and spatial dimensions of the decision-making context. Accordingly, improved indecision-making information and decision-support processes is needed. Spatial expansions manifested in physical expansions of the decision-making boundaries that led to expansions in representation in the decision-making process. Temporal expansions manifested in the consideration of different sequences of bulk supply schemes over time instead of a selection of schemes at the same time. The study incorporated components of economic valuation theory, multi-criteria decision analysis, a public survey and a modified Delphi expert panel technique to account for the increased decisionmaking information load. The approach was applied in the Western Cape province of South Africa and specifically focused on a choice problem regarding different long-term bulk-water resource management options for the area. Two surveys were completed to accommodate these expansions. The first focused on public preference in water allocation management and the second survey utilized a modified Delphi technique. Questions regarding the extend of public participation in long-term water resource allocation decision-making came to the fore and the applicability of economic theory to accommodate public preference as a regulatory instrument, was questioned. A willingness to pay for “greener” water was observed and may be used to motivate a paradigm shift from management’s perspective to consider, without fear of harming their own political position, “greener” water supply options more seriously even if these options imply higher direct costs.

Addressing the current homeland security challenges requires scholars, practitioners, elected officials, and community partners working in unison to mitigate the hazards confronting first responders. Built on public choice theory, this research addressed a specific component of the emergency preparedness matrix: the most preferred fire service organizational design. The fire department organizational designs in this study included a Florida county, city, and independent special control fire district (ISFCD) that serve residents on a full-time platform. The concurrent embedded methodology used attempted to unearth which organizational design achieves economies of scale based on quarterly emergency service calls: the centralized county model or the decentralized city/ISFCD models. This study was an inquiry into the centralization versus decentralization argument, with emphases on fire service scale economies and inter-local service agreements Using multiple linear regression modeling accompanied by face-to-face interviews with the respective fire chiefs, this research showed that the county and ISFCD achieve scale economies over 44 quarters, fiscal years 2004-2014. Moreover, the interviews uncovered that response times were the driving factor behind instituting voluntary inter-local service agreements between the three fire departments. Other positive benefits from the service agreements include an increase in personnel and scene safety, dispatch center protocol enhancements, multi-company/jurisdictional training, overtime savings on large-scale disaster incidents, and trust building. The implications of this research for the scholarly and practitioner community include a better understanding of the technical and allocative efficiencies within the fire service arena. Melding public choice theory with strands of inter-local service agreement literature provides policymakers and scholars with a template for uncovering the fire service production/provision narrative. Though the centralization-decentralization argument is not solved within the research scope presented, the future narrative as uncovered in the research requires a citizenry inclusion. The future public choice prescriptions regarding fire service consolidation requires not only statistical modeling, but a normative democratic ethos tone incorporating multiple stakeholders with the citizens’ concerns at the forefront. / Includes bibliography. / Dissertation (Ph.D.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2016. / FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection

Risk based approaches are gaining currency as industry looks for rational, efficient and flexible approaches to managing their structures and equipment. When applied to inspection and maintenance of industrial assets, risk based approaches differ from other approaches mainly in their assessment of failure in its wider context and ramifications. These advanced techniques provide more insight into the causes and avoidance of structural failure and competing risks, as well as the resources needed to manage them. Measuring risk is a challenge that is being met with state of the art technology, skills, knowledge and experience. The thesis presents risk based approaches to solving two specific types of problem in the management of offshore structures and equipments. The first type is finding the optimum timing of an asset life management action such that financial benefit is maximised, considering the cost of the action and the risk (quantified in monetary terms) of not undertaking that action. The approach presented here is applied to managing remedial action in offshore wind farms and specifically to corroded wind turbine tower structures. The second type of problem is how to optimise resources using risk based criteria for managing competing demands. The approach presented here is applied to stocking spares in the shipping sector, where the cost of holding spares is balanced against the risk of failing to meet demands for spares. Risk is the leitmotiv running through this thesis. The approaches discussed here will find application in a variety of situations where competing risks are being managed within constraints.

Natural resource decisions require consideration at many levels, ranging from how one invertebrate will be affected by a nearby road, to how an entire watershed will be transformed by a massive clearcut. Considerations reach farther than just the local ecological community-human communities, economies, and future impacts on the communities and economies must also be considered. Integral to decision-making is having the correct information, which best comes from effective communication. Because scientific results are frequently used in natural resource decision-making, communicating science effectively is particularly important. In the context of natural resource decision-making, this study examines how Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) scientists in the Pacific Northwest view communication actions for disseminating scientific research results. Secondary survey data were used with over 150 surveys returned for an 82% response rate. Perspectives on the importance of communication were analyzed with data illustrating socio-demographic information and theoretical scientific attitudes. The results support the proposition that many scientists find more participatory, holistic communication actions involving the extended peer community to be very important. Certain variables, including age, theoretical attitude, and organization of employment, significantly affect the degree of importance reported by the scientists and can be used to predict responses for specific areas of communication. / Graduation date: 2004