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Extreme rainfall events are responsible for social disorder and economic problems, especially in large urban centers. Densely populated areas suffer from flooding , landslide and building destruction that cause deaths and wide-spread diseases, such as malaria, dengue and leptospirosis. They are recurrent phenomena that wear down the life of the urban population, particularly the least privileged ones. The focal area of this work was the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP), Brazil, one of the largest cities in the world. Rainfall daily totals of 21 rain gage network in the MRSP were analyzed to i) estimate the annual maximum daily rainfall (PMDA), by means of the Gumbel distribution; II) group different rainfall rates into classes (from drizzle to extreme rates) and verify the similarity between seasons (clustering), that is annual and seasonal rain rates, for the period 1947 to 1998, making use of the technique known as Cluster Analysis, and III) identify possible trends of three rain rate classes (drizzle, moderate and above 30.0 mm / day) for the annual and seasonal periods, for the whole dataset length of each gage, using the Mann-Kendall trend test. The results showed that the maximum daily rainfall observed data fit the Gumbel distribution in the annual period, with the estimated annual daily maximum rain rate equal to 239.3 mm / day with a return period of 500 years in Barrocada gage, located in MRSP north-central region. Cluster analysis showed little similarity amongst gages, with respect to some rain rate classes, both in the number of events and the classes rain totals, in the annual and seasonal periods. The Mann-Kendall test showed significant increasing trend of the cumulative totals for a larger number of gages for both annual and seasonal periods. The trend of the number of drizzle events class was significantly upward for most gages, again both in the annual and seasonal periods, but not all gages presented increasing trend for the moderate events class. Also, significant increasing trend of the rain rate classes above 30.0 mm / day was found at some gages in the year period. In general, there was significant upward trend of rain rate classes in the MRSP. / Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Alagoas / Eventos extremos de chuva são responsáveis por distúrbios sociais e problemas econômicos, principalmente nos grandes centros urbanos. Áreas densamente povoadas sofrem deslizamentos, inundações e destruição de construções, que causam mortes e doenças em larga escala, tais como malária, dengue e leptospirose. Eles são fenômenos recorrentes que desgastam a vida da população urbana, principalmente aos menos privilegiados. A área de foco deste trabalho foi a Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP), Brasil, uma das maiores cidades do mundo. Foi analisada uma rede de 21 estações, na RMSP, com totais diários de precipitação para: i) estimar a precipitação máxima diária anual (PMDA), por meio da distribuição de Gumbel, ii) grupos com diferentes taxas de precipitação dentro das classes (de chuvisco a precipitação extrema), e, verificar a similaridade entre as estações (clustering), para taxas de precipitação anual e sazonal, para o período de 1947 a 1998, fazendo uso da técnica conhecida como análise de cluster, e III) identificar possíveis tendências nas três classes de taxa de precipitação (chuvisco, moderado e acima de 30mm/dia) para os períodos anuais e sazonais, para o comprimento total de cada estação, utilizando o teste de tendência de Mann-Kendall. Os resultados mostraram que os dados observados de precipitação máxima diária se ajustam à distribuição de Gumbel no período anual, com taxa anual estimada de precipitação máxima diária igual a 239,3 mm/dia com período de retorno de 500 anos na estação Barrocada, localizada na região centro-norte da RMSP. A análise de agrupamento mostrou pouca similaridade entre as estações, com relação a algumas taxas de classes de precipitação, tanto em número de eventos das classes de precipitação total, nos períodos anuais como sazonais. O teste de Mann-Kendall apresentou tendência de aumento significativo dos totais acumulados em um maior número de estações para ambos os períodos, anuais e sazonais. A tendência do número de eventos de classe chuvisco, foi significativamente alta para a maioria das estações, novamente tanto em períodos anuais como sazonais, mas nem todas as estações apresentaram tendência de aumento para a classe de eventos moderados. Além disso, a tendência de aumento significativo das classes de taxa de precipitação acima de 30 mm/dia foi encontrada em algumas estações no período anual. Em geral, houve tendência de aumento significativo das taxas de classes de precipitação na RMSP.

The main objective of this paper was to investigate runoff changes in the catchment Ala-Arca, Alamaedin and Kara-Balta in Kyrgyzstan, as well as change in climate conditions from available stations in the area. The runoff, precipitation, and temperature series were subjected to monthly, seasonal and annual analyses based on available data. Both absolute and relative data homogeneity were verified using statistical tests such as the Mann-Whitney-Pettit test, the SNHT test, and the WiIlcoxon's two- sample test for absolute homogeneity, and the Alexandersson's test for relative homogeneity. The Mann-Kendall test was used to determine the trend in each serie. There were inhomogeneities found in a number of runoff data. In most cases, the changes of rivers Ala-Arca and Kara-Balta were recorded in 1987. Compare to Ala-Arca and Kara-Balta, the changes of river Alamedin were recorded 3 years later, in 1990. There was a positive trend development by the rivers with the glacial-snow regime. However, there was no statistically significant trend for the entire time series. Key words: runoff change, precipitation, temperature, glacial-snow regime, snow-glacial regime, homogenization, Mann-Whitney-Pettit test, trend, Mann-Kendall test, glaciation, Kyrgyzstan, Tien- Shan

Η παρούσα εργασία διαπραγματεύεται την επεξεργασία ετήσιων και εποχικών χρονοσειρών βροχόπτωσης από 12 σταθμούς της Δυτικής Ελλάδας για την περίοδο 1975-2004. Επιπλέον για τους 8 από τους συνολικά 12 σταθμούς όπου υπήρχε η δυνατότητα, η επεξεργασία αφορά μια περίοδο 50 ετών (1956-2005). Χρησιμοποιώντας ως κλιματικό δείκτη το ετήσιο βροχομετρικό ύψος προκύπτει ότι το σύνολο των 12 σταθμών χαρακτηρίζεται εν γένει από έναν συνδυασμό ημίυγρου ή υγρού κλιματικού τύπου. Χρησιμοποιώντας τον μη-παραμετρικό έλεγχο των Mann-Kendall για την εξακρίβωση παρουσίας τάσεων σε βάθος χρόνου, για την περίοδο 1975-2004 δεν διαφαίνεται η ύπαρξη κάποιας σημαντικής τάσης εκτός από τις ετήσιες βροχοπτώσεις του Πύργου που εμφανίζουν μία σημαντικά αρνητική τάση. Την περίοδο από το 1956-2005 προκύπτουν σημαντικά αρνητικές τάσεις τόσο σε εποχική βάση (κυρίως την άνοιξη) όσο και σε ετήσια για τους μισούς από τους οκτώ σταθμούς που εξετάστηκαν. Η Γάμμα κατανομή είναι εκείνη που περιγράφει καλύτερα το φυσικό μέγεθος ύψος βροχόπτωσης και στην περίπτωση μας προσδιορίζονται ανά σταθμό και για την περίοδο 1975-2004 (σε εποχική και ετήσια βάση), οι παράμετροι της με την βοήθεια της μεθόδου μέγιστης πιθανοφάνειας. Στα πλαίσια της φασματικής ανάλυσης, για να εξακριβωθεί η ύπαρξη ή οχι περιοδικότητας στην τιμή της διασποράς των εποχικών και ετήσιων τιμών βροχόπτωσης χρησιμοποιούνται οι 7 σταθμοί για τους οποίους υπάρχει επάρκεια μετρήσεων με εξεταζόμενη περίοδο την πεντηκονταετία 1955-2004 και κάνοντας χρήση της μεθόδου Blackman-Tukey. Προκύπτει με την εν λόγω μέθοδο ότι κατά την διάρκεια του φθινοπώρου και της άνοιξης δεν διαφαίνονται κάποια σαφή στοιχεία περιοδικότητας στην διασπορά των υψών υετού των 7 σταθμών. Αυτό δεν ισχύει όμως για τον χειμώνα αλλά και σε ετήσια βάση, όπου στα φάσματα των τιμών υετού των σταθμών αποκαλύπτονται τρεις περιοχές συχνοτήτων περιοδικότητας που μοιάζουν αρκετά μεταξύ τους. Αυτό αντανακλά το γεγονός ότι σε γενικές γραμμές οι σταθμοί της Δυτικής Ελλάδας επηρεάζονται από τα ίδια περιπου βαρομετρικά συστήματα και άρα είναι φυσιολογικό να εμφανίζουν παρόμοιες συνιστώσες περιοδικότητας στις διασπορές των τιμών υετού τους. / This work deals with the processing of annual and seasonal precipitation series from 12 stations of West Greece for a 30-year study period (1975-2004). Moreover for 8 out for τηε 12 stations where possible, the processing uses a 50-year study period (1956-2005). By using the annual precipitation height as an climatic index it follows that the total of the twelve stations is characterized generally by a combination of semi-wet and wet climatic type. Making use of nonparametric Mann-Kendall test for ascertaining the existence of trend, it doesn't follow any significant trend for the 30-year period (1975-2004), with the exception of the annual precipitation heights of Pirgos that show a significant negative trend. During the 50-year period (1956-2005) significant negative trends occur in seasonal (mainly during spring) and annual basis as well, for half of the eight stations which have been examined. Gamma distribution is tha type of statistical distribution that describes more effectively the physical quantity precipitation height, and in our case its parameters per station are being computed for the period 1975-2004, by using the maximum likelihood method. Under the framework of a Spectral analysis of the precipitation series (for the verification of periodicity in the variances of precipitation rates) , 7 stations are used for a 50-year study period (1955-2004) by using the Blackman-Tukey method. It follows after this method has been used, that precipitation series don't appear any periodicity during autumn and spring seasons. This is in contrast with the winter season and the annual rainfall values as well, where three parts of periodicity in the spectra of the stations appear that bear a common resemblance. This depicts the fact that genarally the total of West Greece stations are influenced by almost the same barometric pressure systems which leads to the variances of precipitation rates to appear common periodicity components.

CHANGES OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF REGIME IN THE ŠUMAVA / BOHEMIAN FOREST REGION Abstract: The goal of this thesis is the evaluation of changes in rainfall-runoff regime in the Šumava region from time and spacial point of view. The thesis includes research and applied part. The research part is dedicated to the methods of evaluation of runoff changes and their possible causes in the Šumava region. In the applied part there is an analysis of precipitaion - runoff regime for long-term time series of average annual and monthly discharges and also annual and monthly precipitations for selected gauging stations in Czech, German and Austrian part of Šumava using absolute and relative homogenity tests and Mann - Kendall test for long-term trend. The results of this thesis showed significant changes in rainfall and runoff seasonality. One of the main aims of this thesis is the identification of possible orographical effect or the difference between windward and leeward part of Šumava. In conclusion the achieved results are evaluated, discussed and compared with subject publications. Key words: absolute homogeneity, land-use, Mann - Kendall test, runoff, basin, discharge, relative homogeneity, season,precipitation, trend, Šumava