Den globale etterspørselen etter petroleum er økende, og produksjon av olje-og gassressurser flyttes til stadig nye lokasjoner. Dette har ført til et økt fokus på mulighetene for å utvinne petroleum i nordområdene, også i den norske delen av Barentshavet. Det er allerede felt som er åpnet for oljeutvinning i Barentshavet Sør, Snøhvit produserer allerede gass og Goliat-feltet vil begynne å produsere olje i 2014. I tillegg er en konsekvensutredning utført for åpningen av et nytt mulig felt i Barentshavet Sørøst. Å utvikle nye oljefelt så langt nord er utfordrende. Det er flere metocean-relaterte utfordringer som lave temperaturer, havis, ising, polare lavtrykk og lav sikt. Dette tvinger petroleumsbransjen til å finne nye tekniske løsninger og myndighetene tvinges til å utvikle nye standarder og forskrifter som gjelder for det utfordrende miljøet i Arktis. Men de mest fremtredende utfordringene er de lange avstandene og mangelen på infrastruktur. Dette gjør det vanskelig å utvikle petroleumsløsninger som både ivaretar sikkerheten og er økonomisk gjennomførbare. For å redusere sikkerheten og logistiske hull forårsaket av mangler i infrastrukturen, kan en Offshore Supply Base (OSB) plasseres i Barentshavet. Den norske delen av Barentshavet kan deles inn i to deler, hvor Barentshavet Sør er generelt isfritt hele året og Barentshavet Nord har isdekket farvann hver vinter.Denne oppgaven har sett på to OSB-konsepter, hvor ett er plassert i den sørlige delen av Barentshavet og det andre er plassert i nord. De viktigste betingelsene som er satt for de to konseptene er at OSBen skal kunne-Forbedre SAR-dekning-Forbedre oljevernberedskapen i Barentshavet-Tilby logistikktjenesterDet er for øyeblikket ingen planer om å utvikle oljefelt i Barentshavet Nord. I tillegg er det tekniske begrensninger vedrørende valg av mulige offshore installasjoner for OSBen på grunn av tilstedeværelsen av havis. Derfor er et konsept der en OSB er plassert i Barentshavet Sør ansett å være den beste løsningen. Det resulterende konseptet er et multipurpose skip plassert på ca. 73.1N 27.1E. OSBen vil ha et SAR-helikopter permanent plassert på innretningen og vil kunne tilby utvidet sykehusfunksjonalitet. Den vil også være i stand til å fungere som en NOFO-tankskip under oljevernaksjoner. Logistikktjenestene som har blitt foreslått er verksted og lagringsmuligheter. Hastigheten til fartøyet skal være minimum 15 knop. Den foreslåtte plasseringen til OSBen gjør at et SAR-helikopter plassert på innretning vil ha en 3 timers radius som dekker hele det nye foreslåtte oljefeltet i Barentshavet Sørøst. OSBen vil også være i stand til å dekke hele den norske delen av Barentshavet innen 24 timer i tilfelle en oljevernberedskap.Å basere OSBen på et skipsformet enkeltskrog gjør det mulig å konvertere et eksisterende fartøy, som kan være et billigere alternativ enn et nybygg. Den nøyaktige størrelsen på fartøyet skal være basert på mengden av oljeutslipp OSBen vil kunne motta og de utvidede logistikktjenester OSBen er i stand til å gi. Disse betingelsene bør etableres ved å utføre en konseptuell forretningsplan og risikoanalyse vedrørende mengde oljesøl den bør kunne motta.

The ice cap surrounding the Arctic Ocean has been significantly reduced during the last decades. As the ice continues to diminish the economic potential of the NSR is becoming stronger. However there are still challenges and uncertainties connected to navigation in the Arctic. Among these are the lack of marine infrastructure, the uncertainties regarding the regulations and length of the ice free season. The purpose of this master thesis is therefore to develop a transport simulation model to investigate the economic feasibility of a NSR transport system. The route has not been evaluated as a year-round substitute for the traditional route through the Suez Canal, but has been integrated with the southern passage. As a result the Northern Sea Route is only used as an alternative in the navigation season between August and the end of November. In order to investigate the feasibility of the route a case study is developed. Container cargo is evaluated as the most suitable shipping cargo; therefore the case study presents a possible container transport between Rotterdam in the Netherlands and Yokohama in Japan. The shorter distance of the NSR is exploited in two ways, either by slow steaming or increasing the number of transits a year. In addition the transport systems are evaluated for 4 different ice classes, 7 different ice scenarios and a fleet consisting of 6 or 7 vessels. The transport simulation model calculates the speed and fuel consumption in ice with the use of an ice thickness-speed curve (h-v curve). The h-v curve is found by calculating the ice resistance of the vessel for variable ice thicknesses and the corresponding net thrust available to overcome this resistance. Further the model simulates the schedules and calculates the total fuel consumption for the entire fleet. The output of the model is the required freight rate (RFR) for the NSR transport systems and the Suez Canal route.The simulation results indicate that:-The optimal fleet size consist of 7 vessels-The slow steaming schedule is more profitable than the maximum transits schedule-The optimal ice class for the less severe ice scenarios are IC, while IB is better when the ice conditions harshen-All ice classes are more profitable than the SCR if the ice conditions are less severe than ice scenario 5

Measured in volume approximately 80 % of world trade is carried at sea and with just as many different actors the shipping industry acts close to a perfect market. The highly volatile nature of the industry with unexpected market fluctuations is the basis for the major decisions shipping companies are making. Especially the fleet size and mix problem in a strategic setting involving fleet changes during several planning periods as a company growth policy. This decision is therefore highly dependent on correct timing for those who want to succeed and an introduction to the shipping industry is given to state these properties. In this thesis various optimization models solving the fleet size and mix problem are presented where the best suited model structure related to the topic is chosen. This model is of deterministic nature, meaning that all input values are known, and based upon predefined routes. The decision regarding the fleet composition during several planning periods is aiming at determining an optimal fleet for a given market. The validity of the results solely relies on input data, which is highly uncertain into an unknown future. The predictions need to coincide with the real life development in order for the results to maintain its validity.Two different trades are used as cases, solved with the models presented. Some input parameters are changed and the differences are investigated. The main findings imply that only relative small changes of the input parameters resulted in very different decisions. The related loss of making the wrong decision is observed in the region of 100 – 200 million USD during three years. This large loss potential and the uncertainty related to the input parameters leads to a need for a method minimizing these effects. An approach is developed to treat uncertainties minimizing the losses by finding a robust fleet capable of handling a large set of generated future scenarios, called the “Scenario Algorithm”. The approach is divided into three main steps; the scenario generating step where development are based on historical fluctuations, a deterministic solution with the given scenario as basis and finally storing of all the solutions with a statistical analysis of the output. The algorithm is used on the two cases with two different scenario generating approaches, based on an exponential- and a continuous uniform distribution. The fleet size and mix decisions which appeared with the highest frequency were chosen, and gave a consistent estimate based on risk aversion decreasing the potential of making losses.The approaches presented in this thesis is not meant to give a correct answer on how the future will be, but help the decisions makers reduce the uncertainty connected to the strategic decision. The deterministic model give valuable information with a given scenario as input, but the model is only capable of evaluate the scenarios individually. The result found by the scenario algorithm evaluating scenarios collectively is therefore of higher value since it provide a more robust solution.

This master thesis in marine systems design is about how to assess the future uncertainty in a design setting, or as the topic puts it; semi-submersible platform design to meet uncertainty in the future operation scenarios. Central terms that will be discussed are robustness, flexibility, adaptability, and real options, so-called ilities. Also, methods for evaluation of designs in relation to ilities and future uncertainty are presented.The background for this thesis is the ever importance of a good assessment of investment projects in the offshore business in general, and more specific in relation to designs subjected to different forms of ilities. Now, more than ever, it is crucial to make the right decisions when designing an offshore construction, to ensure that an investment is viable. This thesis has used the concept of an intervention semi, provided by Aker Solutions, to assess problems related to these aspects. At first, design drivers for the concept were identified. These were found to be cost, weigh and operability, where (total) cost and (total) weight are strictly correlated. Operability, meaning the ability to keep operations running in different conditions and situations, are mainly dependent on motion characteristics and layout, where vertical motions were found to be the most important. The properties of the intervention semi was presented as a functional breakdown, divided in five main categories; well intervention, drilling, power generation, station keeping and transit, and other functions. The last category, the one called other functions, incorporated accommodation, ballast and bilge water systems, and heave compensation system. Most relevant for the intervention concept are the intervention functions and drilling functions. Of well intervention procedures, the concept should be able to do wireline operations, coiled tubing operations, and for drilling, through tubing rotary drilling will be the main procedure. After presenting the properties for the intervention semi concept, aspects of changing requirements due to uncertainty in the future, were discussed. The design functions of changing requirements identified were operation method and technology, environment and legislation, area of operation, and economics. Following this, a discussion of how to accommodate for these changing requirements were presented, with focus on aspects regarding flexibility, robustness, adaptability, and real options. After these terms and aspects had been discussed, an evaluation of the concept in relation to the ilities presented was done. Most relevant was the possibility of a development of the coiled tubing equipment, the aspect of managed pressure drilling as a function that might be needed in the future, and the use of rental equipment. Also, ilities were identified and discussed in a concept similar to the intervention semi presented in this thesis. From this, it was found that functions related to the environment (regarding emissions) would be a potential area of ilities, due to the continually increasing focus on such matters, and by having functions related to this designed with ilities, It would make it easier to improve these functions at a later time. Also, the aspect of extra deck space was discussed, which will give the design better flexibility, and in general, it was found that flexibility in the procedures for intervention and drilling operation was important for this concept. Some functions and aspects were also found not to be relevant for any sort of ilities. Among these were functions related to heavy drilling, increased water depth and the aspect of ice class.To find the value of a design with functional ilities, different methods and aspects were presented. At first, economical aspects were discussed, and methods using net present value were found to be relevant in relation to the valuation of ilities. Another approach discussed was scenario development and assessment, where in particular one method was found relevant. This method proposes to find an optimal design for the scenario assumed most probable, and then test this design against the other possible scenarios (using the models as simulation models) to get an impression of the resilience of the designs. Two decision support models were proposed, Model 1 and Model 2. The first model presented, Model 1, can be described as a “hybrid” decision model, part static, part dynamic, where an optimal design is found for a set of contracts, taking real options into consideration. The contracts should reflect the future, and from a set of base designs, with varying possibilities for functions and options, a design with an optimal combination of capabilities and options will be the result of solving the problem. Model 2 is sort of a static variant of Model 1, where the possibility of real options is no longer available. The model will still find a design with an optimal combination of capabilities for a set of contracts, but all capabilities must be part of the construction initially.Further, the two models are implemented for use in a commercial solver, and parameters and constraints are discussed. These implemented models were then used for the illustrative cases.The case studies illustrate how the two models presented can be utilised, and in addition illustrate how the scenario assessment discussed earlier can be combined with the decision support models. There are mainly three cases presented; two where Model 1 is used, and a third, where Model 2 is used. In Case 1 there are three base designs, with different characteristics, and one only attribute (supplementary function) that should be assessed. Three scenarios are presented as a basis for the contract generation. First, an optimal design solution was found for each scenario (Case 1a, Case 1b and Case 1c). Secondly, a scenario assessment was done, where the solution from the scenario assumed most probable is tested against the other two scenarios using the model as a simulation model rather than an optimisation model. Scenario 1 was assumed to be the most probable one, represented by Case 1a, and the optimal solution for this case was Design 1. This design was then tested against the two other scenarios, and it came out with a rather good result, illustrating the resilience of the chosen design. Case 2 illustrated a more complex problem, where an optimal solution should be found among 16 different base designs and four possible attributes. The attributes could either be part of the design initially or made as options that can be realised at a later time. The instance tested is assumed to be somewhat more complex than a commercial problem, but illustrates in a good way the capability of Model 1. Case 3 is an example of how Model 2 can be used. In Case 3a, only one base design is available, and with a set of four possible attributes, an optimal design should be found. Due to the “static” character of Model 2, the attributes can only be part of the initial design. Case 3b is much the same, except here there are two base designs to choose among, in addition to the four attributesA computational study was carried out, using Model 1, and only this, as it is assumed to be the most complex of the two models. The test incident assumed most relevant, with 100 contracts, four base designs, and eight attributes, can be solved one time in on the average less than two seconds, and for a full scenario analysis, consisting of about 1000 runs, the analysis will take about half an hour.As a concluding remark for this thesis, I will say that the main scope, which I in my opinion was to discuss how different design solutions can be evaluated in relation to future uncertainty, was answered in a good way with the two decision models proposed together with how these could be used in a scenario setting.

The report is divided into three different categories; background, concept evaluation and comparison and the methodology development. The background gives a short introduction of product architecture, modularity and modularization and also a brief description of existing design concepts which are capable of offering modular capabilities in the operation phase of a vessels life cycle.The second part of the report is a review of possible advantages and disadvantages with the implementation of a similar concept as presented in the background on offshore support vessels. The review deals with several aspects such as increased flexibility, higher spot utilization and also how this concept can have effects in an environmental perspective. Direct challenges with modular capabilities such as equipment complexity, port logistics issues etc. has also been discussed. Finally the concept is evaluated from an economical perspective, discussing costs in short and long term perspectives and how to predict the costs of a conversion between operations.The result of the evaluation is that the concept has aspects that are presumed quite beneficial for ship owners. Noticeable are increased flexibility in the range of operations a vessel can perform, possibilities for a fleet reduction due to modular capabilities and also possibilities for economic benefits in forms of higher spot utilization and easier maintenance of equipment modules. It is also anticipated that the concept will make the vessel more receptive for new technology and equipment modules. The most repressive aspect regarding modular capabilities is by far each equipment modules high degree of complexity together with the low degree of independency.The concept has also been compared with multi-purpose OSV’s and conventional mission specific OSV’s within several different aspects considered important for ship owners. The results are generally favoring a vessel with modular capabilities, but also that the negative aspects of the concept might not be taken sufficient account for in the comparison.In the third and last part it is developed a methodology to establish the equipment structure of an offshore support vessel with modular capabilities. It establishes the function hierarchy of the vessel and defines the interactions between the equipment modules and the functions before each module is evaluated in light of modular complexity and vessel influence. Based on this the equipment structure is established and exchange intervals for the modules are proposed.To illustrate the steps of the methodology better a case study is performed based on 5 different operations; anchor handling, towing, pipe lay, construction and support. The case study gives two main indications:1. There are a potential in further development of the methodology. Mainly involving the modules interactions and the specific equipment evaluation.2. The equipment modules are as determined before very complex and require long exchange intervals and also extensive external support to swap modules.

The design process used in most vessel design approaches can be described as sequential and iterative, where the initial design is subject to constant improvements. The process development is thereby constrained by the decisions made in early stages of design. It becomes apparent that the more design knowledge which can be generated and evaluated in these stages, the better foundation the designer has to make the best decisions. System Based Ship design (SBSD) has introduced a bottom-up approach which generates a functional description based on the vessel missions for use in early stages of design. SBSD focuses on enabling creativity and innovation in vessel design by being able to evaluate alternative solutions. The increase and availability of computational processing capacity these days is a contributor to enabling more design aspects included in earlier design stages.This thesis focuses on development of a system that is able to efficiently develop and evaluate Offshore Support Vessel designs and alternative designs in concept- and preliminary stages of design. Based on the functional description of OSVs from the SBSD methodology are modules related to vessels missions systematically identified and generated. Modular Product Platforms (MPPs) which contains rules for how these OSV modules can be combined have been developed to efficiently develop design alternatives for consideration. The main focuses have been to enable creativity, innovation and alternative solutions in an efficient manner in early stages of design. Due to the physical similarities that the OSVs share, MPPs have provided a good tool for efficient development of these vessels. The parametric ship description within the MPPs enables concept exploration and improvement with low effort and facilitates design evaluation and improvement. Automated 3D modelling based on the OSV MPPs provides a more intuitive design process and facilitates design evaluation to multiple vessel alternatives. The responsiveness and flexibility of the MPP and automated 3D modelling is believed to have benefits in a sales situation to efficiently develop design alternatives based on customer demands and providing a visual representation for discussion. This has the potential of reducing the time and resources involved in tendering/sales projects. MPPs can be used by design companies to more easily communicate which designs they can offer, and to explore vessel design parameters influence on performance. Due to vessels complex hull shape, the modules’ shapes and quantity positioned within the hull influence the performance of the output design form the MPPs. Control and manipulation of hull shape is found to be essential due to vessel characteristics. Sectioning of the hull shapes within the MPPs has provided a good method of enabling control and evaluation of the hull shape with minimum compromise to other design performances. Databases containing vessel statistics have provided a good method of comparing key performance criteria of output design from the MPPs to existing vessels and thereby contribute to validation of the design. These vessel statistics will also support the designer in providing good initial input values for parameters that are found by iterations and design development. Search- and optimization algorithms can be used to find good configurations of the MPP parameters and support the designer with parameter options in future developments. The developed MPPs can be further developed to incorporate more aspects to OSV design, and by supporting and incorporating analysis and simulations from other software applications, based in the generated 3D model, a solid tool for OSV design can be established. Re-configuration related to OSV operations can become a solution in competition for the most favourable contracts and to account for the fluctuating and seasonal market. Re-configuration alternatives can efficiently be launched and evaluated by the use of MPPs. Although the developed system seems to efficiently develop design alternatives with good performance, it has yet to prove its applicability as a tool for use in the industry.

With the ice cap diminishing rapidly on the Arctic Sea, the opportunity of using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) increases correspondingly. However, the climate and presence of ice on the NSR sets additional requirements, which represent an additional investment cost for the ship owner who’s potentially willing to use the NSR. These additional investment costs, mainly represented by the ice classification, may be up to 12 % higher on total ship cost, depending on ice class, see Polach, Janardanan, and Ehlers (2012). These estimates are however uncertain, as are many other specifics of operating on the NSR; the degree of ice presence, the future fee cost on the NSR, insurance and additional maintenance cost together with varying operational time on the NSR. Numerous of assessments to determine the potential cost advantage of using the NSR as a transit route have been conducted throughout the recent years. These are, however conflicting in their conclusions and a final answer to the question is therefore lacking. Therefore, this thesis presents a decision support model (DSM) that can be used to support and assess the question of using the NSR or not based on own costs and available information. The DSM takes into account amongst others; ice conditions, the vessels parameters and its performance in ice, the operational window on the NSR, the initial investment cost of the vessel, and finally the operational and voyage costs. All these variables are changeable, and therefore the potential user of the DSM can alter them and see its effect on the calculated output, which are, amongst others: the ship merit factor (SMF), the life cycle cost (LCC) and the required freight rate (RFR).In addition to the developed DSM, a scenario where investing in a new ice classed vessel for use on the NSR in the summer season when there is less ice, and navigating the Suez Canal Route (SCR) the remaining annual operational time is presented. Through a brief assessment on the cargo flow between East-Asia and Europe, it was decided to implement the DSM for container shipping, as this is the main traffic on the route which could benefit from the shorter distance provided by the NSR. Based on this decision, how to combine the fixed schedule of liner shipping with the uncertainty of the NSR has been discussed. Here it has been concluded that the best way to combine the two routes for liner shipping is to slow steam the NSR when the ice conditions are favourable. Furthermore, the design requirements for ships navigating on the NSR have been reviewed in addition to the limiting parameters and constraints of the route. These and other special requirements for NSR navigation have been summarized and compared versus the open water requirements of the SCR. In order to implement performance in ice and open water into the DSM, prediction methods for brash ice resistance, net thrust and open water resistance have been studied. These formulas, in addition to schedule, fuel, operational and voyage costs, cargo amounts and other calculations have been implemented in the DSM. With the DSM developed, it has been evaluated through sensitivity calculations to ensure that it behaves reasonable when input parameters are altered. Moreover, two case studies have been conducted, both using the established scenario of using the NSR in addition to the SCR. In the first case study, the performance of a SCR vessel fitted with an ice class and the other requirements needed is assessed for the different ice classes of the Finnish Swedish Ice Class Rules (FISCR). In the second case study, the possibility of optimizing the design of the first case study to fit the schedule and route better, and thus yield more profit, is investigated through the DSM.Under the given assumptions and input used, all the FSICR classed vessels are found to be more profitable using the NSR in the summer season than the same vessel without ice class navigating only the SCR. However, with the profitability declining as the ice extent and thickness grows, the dictating element on NSR profitability is the ice conditions. The 1A ice classed vessel have been found to be the best alternative of the FSICR vessels, when also taking into consideration the ice capabilities of the 1A ice class with respect to ice thickness. Results of the second case study show that having an optimized vessel for the specific route and schedule is important in order to maximize profit as the optimized 1A ice classed vessel show better performance in all calculated results and ice scenarios.The economic advantage of using the NSR under the given scenario is however marginal. And the potential user of the NSR must therefore take into account the additional risk and uncertainty in terms of ice navigation and unforeseen expenses of using the NSR, before making the final decision. With increasing traffic over the recent years, it is well established that using the NSR is technically feasible. Nevertheless, in order to have shipping on the NSR on a regular basis, one must first and foremost have ice conditions that permit safe, economic and consistent navigation. Secondly, there must be a consistent fee system, which does not take away the benefit of the shorter distance in addition to shorter lead-time for booking NSR assistance. With these prerequisites in place, use of the NSR can be beneficial financially and in terms of reduced emissions.

Operations research has proven itself to be advantageous in several areas of the industry for many years, but is operations research a good approach to operational maritime planning? Expressions used to calculate the initial stability of a vessel are often non-linear. Optimisation models demand linearity, and approximated linearisations of the proven stability formulas needed to be developed. This was arguably found to be the biggest challenge when modelling the cargo stowage optimisation model. The characteristics of the RoRo shipping industry have been examined to gain a better understand of the segment. Further, some methods for calculating the initial stability of floating bodies have been presented for the readers that are not already familiar with this area of science.The thesis has used a published optimisation model as a foundation for further expansions. The model is a mathematical formulation of a cargo stowage problem in the RoRo shipping segment, where a predetermined vessel ships mandatory and optional cargoes from fixed loading ports to unloading ports. The reference model controls the vertical and transverse stability of the vessel by imposing constraints that are linear approximations of stability formulas. The model was expanded to ensure the longitudinal stability of the vessel as well. Additionally, the definitions of the existing vertical and transverse stability constraints were altered to provide more accurate co-ordinates for the expanded optimisation model.The computational study showed that the original model was able to find the optimal solution faster than the expanded model. The stowage flexibility was also better than for the expanded model, and the revenue generated was equal or higher in the original model for all scenarios. This was because the expanded model is of a greater size than the original, and is much more constrained in terms of stowage on the various decks. The expanded model divides the decks on the vessel not only into lanes, as the original model does, but also into slots. It can therefore ensure the longitudinal stability of the vessel as well. In addition to this, the lanes and slots in the expanded model are subject to lower and upper bounds for width and length, respectively. The original model allows the width of a lane to take values from zero up to the total width of the deck. In the original model, the size of the set of lanes therefore does not dictate the division of decks into lanes. This was found good for stowage flexibility, but is problematic to defend from a stability and safety perspective.

The overall aim of this case study is to find the most cost-effective strategy for complying with the IMO’s MARPOL Convention Regulation 13 & 14 in the Baltic Sea Emission Control Areas (ECAs) in the period from 2015 to 2035. The alternative compliance strategies considered are:- Scenario 0: Use Marine Gas Oil (MGO with 0.1% sulphur) to comply with the sulphur requirements, no other abatement measures installed, but an assumed NOx-taxation applies;- Scenario 1: Use Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO with 2.7% sulphur) and add scrubber and SCR to reduce SOx and NOx emissions, respectively;- Scenario 2: Use Marine Gas Oil (MGO with 0.1% sulphur) together with an SCR; and- Scenario 3: Use Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), single fuel or dual fuel.The following route is established: Helsinki – Zeebrugge – Antwerp – St. Petersburg – Kotka – Helsinki. The total distance for the roundtrip is 3654nm. 48 roundtrips are completed every year.Based on the specific fuel consumption for the engine and the sulphur content in the fuel, the sulphur emission factor for each scenario is calculated. The amount of SOx emitted from the ship is found by summarizing the product of the engine load, the engine size, the ship’s estimated time at sea and the emission factor. The NOx emission limits for the ship engines in relation to their rated engine speed given in revolutions per minute. The NOx emission factor is assumed to be constant at 55 kg NOx per ton fuel. Investment analyses are performed for a ship type both as new builds and as retrofitted. Operational costs include: fuel costs, lubricating oil costs, maintenance and repair/replacement costs, environmental taxation and educational costs (where applicable), among others. Scenario 0 is chosen as reference point based on the fact that it has the lowest investment cost among the scenarios. The cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) relative Scenario 0 is found from the following formula:CER[EUR/tons]=(Differences in PVC between Scenario 0 and Scenario X)/(Differences in emissions between Scenario 0 and Scenario X)=∆PVC/∆EThe following conclusions are drawn from the cost-effectiveness analysis: - The scrubber in combination with SCR is a favored compliance strategy for IMO’s requirements, both for new builds and retrofits. It has the lowest fuel costs (HFO prices are low and stable) and the lowest present value of total costs among the scenarios outlined.- Having an engine running on MGO is not considered cost-effective. MGO prices are high, and are expected to increase even more. NOx abatement technologies are needed in addition.- LNG is a cost-effective solution, and it is the most environmental friendly alternative. Retrofitting vessels to run on LNG, however, is expensive. The LNG dual fuel technology is a flexible solution, and makes it more economic for the ship to trade outside the ECAs.- The cost comparison between the different scenarios depends largely on the future development of fuel prices.- Modal shift to either rail or road could be a consequence.

This master thesis addresses the maritime fleet size and mix problem (MFSMP). Finding the optimal fleet size and mix of ships for future needs is arguably the single most important decision of a ship owner. This thesis has examined the accuracy with which a developed mathematical formulation of the problem is at predicting fleet demand under various conditions. The FSM model that has been studied is an extension of a model already established by the MARFLIX project. Because of the thesis link to the MARFLIX project, the considered shipping segment is deep-sea Ro-Ro. For testing how accurate the FSM model is at creating a fleet that can handle complex routing constraints a deployment model has been developed. The consistency of the model under different time frames, varying bunker costs and effects of using continuous instead of integer variables in the FSM model was also tested.The major findings of the work was that the fleet proposed by the the FSM model, in its current form, often is undersized. The fleet size and mix problem is usually considered a strategic problem, with time horizons up to several years. However, this particular model performed better for shorter time frames. Using continuous variables on the different trips undertaken by the fleet proved to have little impact on the fleet composition, but the loss of a vessel could occur. The method proved, however, to be significantly faster than the using integer variables. Changes in the cost of fuel had immense impact on the fleet composition, and one should always be clear on the effects of fluctuations in fuel costs have on a fleet. In general, when the price increased the fleet got larger and slow steamed a larger portion of the fleet.Further work should be made on improving the routing capabilities of the FSM model. In its present form the model cannot be relied upon as the only means for establishing the actual optimal fleet. It can, however, be used as a guidance