In this dissertation, I investigate three different issues related to signalling and price dynamics in mergers and acquisitions. The first issue is whether the act of raising capital signals an increase in takeover probability for a forthcoming target. Analysing target returns under event-study methodology, I find that this is indeed the case, as was initially pre-supposed by financial journalists. The second issue is whether the observed increase in target returns which are associated with the increase in takeover probability can be attributed to the actions of sophisticated traders, either via information leakage or through the adept analysis of publicly available information. An examination of price-volume dynamics reveals that investors incorporate the increased likelihood of a takeover attempt into target firm returns without necessarily resorting to illegal insider trading. The final issue is whether this public signal of raising capital impacts the target price runup and takeover premium in a meaningful way. Multivariate regression analysis reveals substantial support that raising capital close in proximity to the acquisition announcement date is associated with significant increases in both target firm returns as well as takeover premiums paid by acquiring firms. In sum, these three essays provide evidence which supports the notion that raising capital can act as both a statistically and economically significant signal to all market participants of a forthcoming takeover attempt. / Thesis (Ph.D, Management) -- Queen's University, 2011-08-12 10:35:35.142

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We live in an era where internationalization and globalization are two extremely attractive concepts. People aim to create a society where limits and restrictions are erased and a thriving society is a reality. Numerous transformations have occurred in order to realize this and one of the most vital ones is the globalization of the economy. The globalization was made possible through the discovery on the capital market. This market enables people to trade with each other, no matter place or time. Thus, a more efficient solution is offered for rapid and significant transfers such as loans and investment. According to various researchers, the capital market determines, in a way, which company will grow and which will stagnate in development. However, the capital market needs to be efficient in order to offer the services intended. The aim of this dissertation is to explain how efficient the capital market is when incorporating information regarding football player transfers. By examining the empirical findings, it will also be able to establish if assets of the same market value cause different share price fluctuations depending on if they are acquired or sold.

A cointegration analysis on a triangle of high frequency exchange rates is presented. Market efficiency requires the triangle to be cointegrated and the cointegration term to be a martingale difference sequence. We find empirical evidence against market efficiency for very short time horizons: The cointegration term does not behave like a martingale difference sequence. In an out-of-sample forecasting study the cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model is found to be superior to the naive martingale. Finally, a simple trading strategy shows that the VAR also has a significant forecast value in economic terms even after accounting for transaction costs. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"

Bitcoins have the potential to fundamentally change the way value is transferred globally. Their rapid adoption over the past four years has led many to consider the possible results of such a technology. To be a viable currency, however, it is imperative that the market for trading Bitcoins is efficient. By examining the changes in availability of predictable outsized returns and market liquidity over time, this paper examines historical Bitcoin market efficiency and establishes correlations between market liquidity, price predictability, and return data. The results provide insight into the turbulent nature of Bitcoin market efficiency over the past years, but cannot definitively measure the magnitude of the change due to the limitations in efficiency analysis. The most meaningful result of this study, however, is the statistically significant short-horizon price predictability that existed over the duration of the study, which has implications for Bitcoin market efficiency as well as for continued research in short-horizon Bitcoin price forecasting models.

在本篇研究中，我們考慮了未預料到的訊息進而檢定歐元兌美元外匯市場的效率性。並且，我們將資料分為金融海嘯發生前後兩段期間，資料頻率為日資料。有別於之前文獻使用的訊息不完整且可能不為真實的訊息，我們考慮了所有美國及歐盟定期公布的相關經濟數據與指標，並定義未預料到訊息為數據真實質與預期值之間的差距。我們的實證結果指出，在金融海嘯前，是接受市場效率性假說的，雖然此一結果在金融海嘯發生後並不成立，但未預料到訊息的衝擊，確實會影響外匯市場效率性檢定的結果。因此過去文獻無法支持市場效率性假說之原因可能源自於忽略了未預料訊息的考量。另外，我們也發現，美國訊息與歐盟訊息存在不對稱的影響力，且市場傾向於忽略歐盟區的數據。 / In this paper, we examine the hypothesis of market efficiency in euro/dollar with un-anticipated news, which are defined as the difference between actual values and the market’s forecasts. The research data are divided into two periods of time, before and after the beginning of financial crisis. Unlike previous literatures in which the un-anticipated news are incomplete and may be unreal, our paper adopted all macroeconomic announcements and indicators of United States and the European Union. Our results before the financial crisis indicate that the market efficiency hypothesis is accepted, although the result fails to hold after the financial crisis. The result still shows the importance of the un-anticipated news in testing the foreign exchange market efficiency hypothesis. Therefore the rejection of efficiency hypothesis on foreign exchange market in the literature may result from the lack of un-anticipated news in the model. In addition, we found that impacts of U.S. and EU un-anticipated news are asymmetric on the exchange rate. Besides, the market participants tend to ignore the EU news during both periods of time.

財務報表在資本市場扮演何種角色是會計學者長久以來關注的焦點。Ohlson的研究將實證研究的重心從解釋股價的行為轉向至會計資訊與企業價值關聯的研究。本研究以美國市場為背景，加入分析師對盈餘預測因素，測試剩餘淨利模型實證上的有效性，並且用以檢視是否能以此模型建立超越大盤的投資組合。實證結果顯示發現分析師的盈餘預測作為其他資訊之代理變數以及分析師之長期成長預測捕捉企業未來成長潛質，有助於提升模型對股價的解釋能力。本研究認為成長機會對股價具有正向之影響，現時股價表現反映投資人對未來預期的結果。

<p>Optioner är ett instrument som investerare kan använda för att spekulera i framtida upp-eller nedgångar på olika tillgångar. Om dessa optioner är felprissatta finns det möjlighet att göra riskfria vinster med hjälp av Stolls köp-säljparitet. Tidigare studier visar att marknaden inte alltid är effektiv i sin prissättning av aktieindexoptioner och att det därigenom finns möjlighet till arbitrage. Denna studie undersöker huruvida marknaden är effektiv i sin prissättning av VINX30 aktieindexoptioner, d.v.s. <em>finns det möjlighet till arbitrag på VINX30 aktieindexoptioner?</em></p> / <p>Options are an instrument which investors can use to speculate in future pricemovements on different assets. If these options are misspriced there are an opportunity to get riskfree profit by using Stolls put-call parity. Earlier research shows that the market sometimes is inefficient when pricing stock index options allowing arbitrage. This study investigate whether the market is efficient in the pricing of VINX30 stock index options, i.e.<em> are there arbitrage opportunities on VINX30 stock index options?</em></p>

O propósito dessa pesquisa é estudar a relação entre a revelação de informação corporativa e o comportamento de uma seleção de empresas com fortes políticas de revelação de informação e alto grau de capitalização do Mercado Acionário da Colômbia, para o ano 2014. Mediante esse estudo, é analisada a microestrutura utilizando informação de alta frequência e notícias corporativas publicadas na plataforma de Bloomberg Professional Services. A metodologia de análise para prover evidência da relação foi o estudo de eventos, testando a significância da diferença entre as médias e medianas pré-evento e pós-evento de alguns indicadores de liquidez, retorno e volatilidade. Os resultados permitem concluir que a disseminação de informação tem um impacto sobre a liquidez e a volatilidade do mercado. Percebe-se que no período posterior à publicação das notícias, o tamanho dos bid-ask spreads e a volatilidade do midquote diminui, os investidores negociam em média menores volumes e quantidade de operações e submetem menor quantidade de intenções de compra e venda. / The purpose of this investigation is to study the relationship between corporate disclosure and the behavior of a selection of companies, with strong disclosure policies and high market capitalization ratio of the Colombian Stock Market, for the entire year 2014. The idea of this investigation is to analyze the market microstructure using high frequency data and corporate information publicized through the Bloomberg professional services platform. The estimation technique to provide evidence of the relationship is the event study, testing the significance of the difference between the pre-event and post-event average and median of some indicators of return, liquidity and volatility. The results prove that the disemintation of information impact the market liquidity and volatility. It is noticed that in the post-event window, bid-ask spreads and volatility of the midquote decreases, traders negociate on average lower volums and number of transactions and submit fewer buy and sell order intentions.

O propósito dessa pesquisa é estudar a relação entre a revelação de informação corporativa e o comportamento de uma seleção de empresas com fortes políticas de revelação de informação e alto grau de capitalização do Mercado Acionário da Colômbia, para o ano 2014. Mediante esse estudo, é analisada a microestrutura utilizando informação de alta frequência e notícias corporativas publicadas na plataforma de Bloomberg Professional Services. A metodologia de análise para prover evidência da relação foi o estudo de eventos, testando a significância da diferença entre as médias e medianas pré-evento e pós-evento de alguns indicadores de liquidez, retorno e volatilidade. Os resultados permitem concluir que a disseminação de informação tem um impacto sobre a liquidez e a volatilidade do mercado. Percebe-se que no período posterior à publicação das notícias, o tamanho dos bid-ask spreads e a volatilidade do midquote diminui, os investidores negociam em média menores volumes e quantidade de operações e submetem menor quantidade de intenções de compra e venda. / The purpose of this investigation is to study the relationship between corporate disclosure and the behavior of a selection of companies, with strong disclosure policies and high market capitalization ratio of the Colombian Stock Market, for the entire year 2014. The idea of this investigation is to analyze the market microstructure using high frequency data and corporate information publicized through the Bloomberg professional services platform. The estimation technique to provide evidence of the relationship is the event study, testing the significance of the difference between the pre-event and post-event average and median of some indicators of return, liquidity and volatility. The results prove that the disemintation of information impact the market liquidity and volatility. It is noticed that in the post-event window, bid-ask spreads and volatility of the midquote decreases, traders negociate on average lower volums and number of transactions and submit fewer buy and sell order intentions.