Submitted by Maike Costa (maiksebas@gmail.com) on 2017-09-01T14:18:44Z No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 2068627 bytes, checksum: 45546765d8c38a937b45e6ec70e3fca4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Viviane Lima da Cunha (viviane@biblioteca.ufpb.br) on 2017-09-01T16:00:32Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 2068627 bytes, checksum: 45546765d8c38a937b45e6ec70e3fca4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-01T16:00:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 2068627 bytes, checksum: 45546765d8c38a937b45e6ec70e3fca4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-07-22 / This study aimed to analyze how the market timing ability (HMT) influences the performance of investors to the Brazilian equity funds. For this, it was measured the performance of investors to the Brazilian equity funds, based on cumulative cash flows over the period of analysis, from 2010 to 2015. Additionally, it was quantified the investor HMT, based on the difference between the performance of managers and the performance of investors. It was also analyzed the relationship between HMT and quality of funds selected by investors, based on risk-adjusted return, determined by three and four factors models. Finally, possible determinants of investor HMT were investigated, based on the characteristics of the Brazilian equity funds, through quantile regression. The results of the first stage of the analysis indicate that, on average, investors in the Brazilian equity funds undertake their profitability due to the moment that they realized cash flows inputs and outputs. This result was also observed in specific classes of funds like Value/Growth, Small Caps and Free. However, for the other classes of funds, it was found that on average, the decisions related to the cash flows caused investors obtain superior performance to that earned by the funds. The results of the second stage of the analysis indicate that there are positive and statistically significant relationship between the adjusted performance risk and HMT. Using the two risk factors models, it was found that the funds classified in the best performance deciles showed positive HMT, which suggests that the better the fund's performance, most investors are penalized for their market timing decisions. Regarding the investigation of the determinants of HMT, the performance gap of investors was lower as the size of funds and greater as the lockup period, the growth rate of cash flows and the last return of funds. The main academic contribution of this study is to show the influence of market timing decisions, from the perspective of individual investors. The use of a individual performance measure based on cash flows, made it possible to quantify the possible gains or losses earned by investors compared to the performance provided by the funds. How market contributions, it is believed that the results of this study may help both Brazilian investors, as the financial market professionals, to take heed to the importance of market timing decisions, and how they can influence positively or negatively the performance earned by investors. / Esta tese teve como objetivo analisar como a habilidade de market timing (HMT) influencia o desempenho de investidores de fundos de ações brasileiros. Para tanto, foi mensurado o desempenho dos investidores de fundos de ações brasileiros, com base nos fluxos de caixa acumulados, ao longo do período de análise, de 01 de janeiro de 2010 a 30 de setembro de 2015. Adicionalmente, foi quantificada a HMT dos investidores, com base na diferença entre o desempenho dos gestores e o desempenho dos investidores dos fundos. Também foi analisada a relação entre a HMT e a qualidade dos fundos selecionados pelos investidores, com base no retorno ajustado ao risco, determinado pelos modelos de três e quatro fatores. Por fim, foram investigados possíveis determinantes da HMT dos investidores, com base nas características de uma amostra de fundos de ações brasileiros, por meio da regressão quantílica. Os resultados da primeira etapa da análise indicam que, em média, os investidores dos fundos de ações brasileiros comprometem sua rentabilidade devido ao momento em que realizam entrada e saída de caixa nos fundos. Esse resultado também foi observado nos fundos das classes específicas Valor/Crescimento, Small Caps e Livre. Entretanto, para as demais classes de fundos, verificou-se que, em média, as decisões relacionadas aos fluxos de caixa fizeram com que os investidores obtivessem desempenho superior àquele auferido pelos fundos. Os resultados da segunda etapa da análise indicam que há relação positiva e estatisticamente significativa entre o desempenho ajustado ao risco e a HMT. Utilizando-se os dois modelos de fatores de risco, verificou-se que os fundos classificados nos decis de melhor desempenho apresentaram HMT positiva, o que sugere que, quanto melhor o desempenho do fundo, mais os investidores são penalizados por suas decisões de market timing. Quanto à investigação dos possíveis determinantes da HMT, a lacuna de performance do desempenho dos investidores foi menor conforme o tamanho dos fundos e maior conforme o período de lockup, a taxa de crescimento dos fluxos de caixa e o retorno passado dos fundos. A principal contribuição acadêmica deste estudo é evidenciar a influência das decisões de market timing, sob a perspectiva dos investidores individuais. Como contribuições ao mercado, acredita-se que os resultados do presente estudo podem auxiliar tanto os investidores brasileiros, quanto os profissionais do mercado financeiro, no sentido de atentarem para a importância das decisões de market timing, e como elas podem influenciar positiva ou negativamente o desempenho auferido pelos investidores.

The increasing popularity of passive investment strategies causes the long-term feasibility of active investing to be questioned more often. Therefore, this research aimed to uncover whether active investors' influence on fund performance is positive and significant enough to offset the cost involved, thereby providing reasoning for active rather than passive investing. A comparative analysis of 211 actively managed funds and 191 market and industry-specific indices is performed. Security selection skills and market timing ability are captured through a model comprising of the Fama French three-factor and the Treynor and Mazuy market timing model. The sample is tested between 2005 and 2020, with 5-year sub-periods. Over the full period, active and passive returns are found to be nearly indistinguishable. However, active funds seem to excel during bearish periods, where passive funds excel in bullish periods. The standard deviation is higher overall for passive investing. This difference, however, disappears during bearish periods. The security selection skill is barely distinguishable from zero for either strategy. On the other hand, market timing ability is existent for active investors, indicating a positive effect in bearish markets and a negative effect in bullish markets. Additionally, for both investing strategies, more than 90% of the returns are explained by the movements of the general market. The most suitable investment strategy is truly determined by an investor's level of risk aversion. Nevertheless, this research found that, in general, the passive investing strategy is dominant under normal market conditions. Active investors can act on the macroeconomic developments that fuel crises. This advantage enables them to achieve returns superior to indices while preserving a lower standard deviation during bearish market conditions.