Baker and Wurgler (2002) proposed market timing theory and indicated the observed capital structures are the outcomes that managers timed the equity market and took advantages of timing when information asymmetry is low and stock price is high. But many scholars argue that Baker and Wurgler¡¦s timing proxy is noisy, this study attempts to use the concept of Huang and Ritter (2009) to test market timing effect on capital structure more directly by cost of equity. The cost of equity in this study is estimated by Fama and French three factors model with five-year rolling regression which is different from Huang and Ritter (2009). The empirical results show that publicly traded firms in Taiwan Stock Exchange from 1996 to 2007 tend to issue debt when the cost of equity is high and issue equity when the cost of equity is low which means the timing of financing behavior exists but it has no long-lasting effect on capital structure. Indicating that the observed capital structures of publicly traded firms in Taiwan Stock Exchange aren¡¦t the outcomes that managers timed the equity market which is not identical to the perspectives of Baker and Wurgler (2002) and the speed of adjustment of capital structure of publicly traded firms in Taiwan Stock Exchange is very fast.

This thesis examines capital structure theories and debt level determinants to develop a better understanding, and to establish the most appropriate theory to explain the behaviour of firms‟ debt and equity choices. It tests three major capital structure theories (e.g. the trade-off, pecking order and market timing theories) using static and dynamic statistical models and 13 capital structure determinants, based on three major capital structure theories. The study uses 4,598 sample companies from 11 countries and 27 industries over a 20 year period. This method provides a clear insight into firms‟ debt and equity choice behaviours. The static trade-off theory is tested by first searching for similarities and differences between industries, countries and time periods and, second, by observing whether firms change their capital structures towards optimal levels and whether the coefficient signs are the same as the predictions. The "stock price effect‟ on debt levels is used to examine the pecking order and market timing theories. The pecking order theory is likewise tested by confirming whether firms issue debt when they face a financial deficit. Furthermore, these theories are tested using cluster analyses. The sample examines 11 different characteristics, which include firm size, debt level, and bankruptcy probability. As each characteristic is related to one or more capital structure theories, the most appropriate theory can be derived, based on such characteristics. There are five main findings. First, firms which are financial stable issue relatively more debt. Second, they have a preference for moderate debt levels and thus limit their bankruptcy probability. They also try to exploit opportunities from overestimated stock price by issuing stocks to increase cash inflows. Third, the effects from bankruptcy costs are greater than transaction costs in terms of capital structure adjustment. Fourth, during the sample period, firms continuously decrease leverage levels. Fifth, firms‟ characteristics and macro-economic factors affect their capital structure. There are three main conclusions. First, the behaviour of firms appears generally aligned with the trade-off theory, although the pecking order and market timing theories also partially explain the equity issuance condition. Second, the "equity and debt choice modes‟ can likewise be explained by the use of a theoretically combined approach, using the three major capital structure theories. In this approach, firms increase their value by both increasing debt for tax benefits and low adverse selection costs, and by issuing equity when the stock price is high. Third, this second conclusion implies that the trade-off, pecking order and market timing theories can be combined on the assumption that firms maximise their values under conditions of the existence of asymmetric information, tax shields and bankruptcy probability.

In 2002, Baker and Wurgler posited that capital structure is the cumulative outcome of past attempts to time the equity market. Due to this theory´s recent introduction it has not been subjected to the same comprehensive testing as other financing theories. Most importantly, this theory lacks extensive industry and country specific testing that is required to truly understand its explanatory power. Thus, the purpose of this thesis is to evaluate the applicability of the market timing theory on a country and industry specific level. Given these constraints, the study measured the market timing effects on Swedish real estate firms by performing a panel data regression with yearly financial data from 1991 through 2021. In addition, due to the time-varying nature of capital structure, the data was further divided into three sub periods. First, the study controls for short-term effects by regressing market-to-book with three components of leverage. The results suggest a positive relationship between equity issues and market-to-book values, indicating support for short-term market timing effects. Next, the study implements the external financed weighted-average market-to-book variable to measure if the market timing effects are indeed persistent over the long run. Opposing the market timing theory, the results do not find any support for long-term effects. Instead, the findings imply that firms likely rebalance their capital structure shortly after equity market timing attempts. / År 2002 påstod Baker och Wurgler att ett företags kapitalstruktur är det kumulativa resultatet av historiska försök att tajma aktiemarknaden. Då denna teori är relativt ny så har den inte utsatts för samma rigorösa prövning som äldre finansieringsteorier. Med andra ord så saknar teorin i synnerhet omfattande bransch-och-nationsspecifika tester. Syftet med denna avhandling är därmed att undersöka Market-timing-teorins applicerbarhet på svenska fastighetsföretag genom att utföra en paneldataregression med årliga finansiella data mellan 1991 och 2021. På grund av kapitalstrukturens tidsvarierande karaktär delades studiens data upp i tre tidsintervall. Först kontrollerade studien för kortsiktiga effekter genom regression av market-to-book med tre komponenter av skuldsättningsgraden. Resultaten tyder på ett positivt samband mellan aktieemissioner och market-to-book, vilket indikerar stöd för kortsiktiga effekter av market-timing. Därefter implementerar studien External Finance Weighted-Average Market-to-book variabeln för att mäta om market-timing-effekterna verkligen är ihållande på lång sikt. I motsats till market-timing-teorin finner resultaten inte något stöd för långsiktiga effekter. I stället antyder resultaten att företag sannolikt balanserar om sin kapitalstruktur kort efter försök av market-timing.

本篇論文探討亞太地區債券市場中是否存在著擇時行為，以此區域中三個經濟區為代表—澳洲、新加坡及香港，透過分析此區域2000~2009期間的絕對利率、相對利率與絕對債券發行量、相對債券發行量間之關係，以及進一步控制影響企業債券發行之因素，包括市場的成長機會、再融資及企業特性等，最後，實證結果指出亞太地區之債券市場並無擇時行為之存在，且其融資行為較傾向支持靜態抵換理論，亦即亞太企業進行舉債融資時較可能同時考慮舉債所帶來的正面及負面效果，因此有一最適資本結構存在的可能。 / The purpose of this thesis is to test whether there is market timing behavior existing in Asia-pacific bond market. Using the data during 2000~2009 in three representative places, including Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore, we compare both the absolute and relative interest rate to both the absolute and relative amount of debt issue. In addition, we further control the factors that affect the debt issue of firms, including the market growth opportunities, refinancing and the characteristics of firms. Finally, we find there is no market timing behavior in Asia-pacific bond market. Besides, firms’ financing behavior in Asia-pacific are better explained by the trade-off theory, which means it is possible that there is a optimal capital structure for each firm.

Syfte: Undersökningen syftar till att utifrån teorier kring kapitalstruktur och empiriska samband mellan skuldsättning och lönsamhet diskutera hur skuldsättning kan användas i ekonomistyrning. Metod: Undersökningen är gjord enligt kvantitativ forskningsmetod. Sekundärdata hämtas och analyseras med statistiska metoder. Resultaten diskuteras med teoretisk referensram. Slutsats :Studiens empiriska resultat visar på ett signifikant negativt samband mellan skuldsättning (​TSK ​ ) och lönsamhet (​ROA ​ ), samt ett signifikant positivt samband mellan skuldsättning (​TSK ​ ) och lönsamhet (​ROE ​ ). De empiriska resultaten tyder på att hur skuldsättning kan användas i ekonomistyrning beror på hur lönsamhet mäts. / Purpose: This study aims to; from theories of capital structure and empirical relations between debt and profitability discuss how debt can be used in management control. Method: This study follow quantitative research method. Secondary data is retrieved and analyzed by statistical methods. The results are discussed with the theoretical framework. Conclusion: Empirical results indicate a significant negative relationship between debt (​TSK ​ ) and profitability (​ROA ​ ), followed by a significant positive relationship between debt (​TSK ​ ) and profitability (​ROE ​ ). Empirical results further suggest that the measure of profitability is crucial for how debt can be used in management control.