Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Hikaru Hanawa Peterson / This thesis focuses on the question of the effect of commodity pricing and Federal programs on the cost of food in the United States. For many decades the debate around subsidy payments has been argued in the halls of Congress and in farm fields across the country. Corn, wheat, and soybeans are the three largest crops subsidized in the United States today; arguably, the prices of these crops are influenced by subsidy payments. The goal of this thesis is to determine the effects of the prices of the top three subsidized crops on the thrifty market basket for families for four published by the USDA, factoring in transportation costs, market spread, agricultural technology advancements, and market value share. Previous studies have focused on direct subsidy payments as a whole and their aggregate influence on the price of food. This paper builds on the past studies by evaluating the effects of crop-specific programs on the cost of food. Econometric regression analysis was used to analyze the data gathered to support or refute the hypothesis that commodity prices and Federal payments do influence the cost of food. Initially data were gathered from January 1960 to December 2012. The data were adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index where appropriate. After multiple attempts of modeling it was discovered that data from 1960 to 1970 needed to be discarded due to the difference in the market basket price calculations from the rest of the series. Furthermore, the model was adjusted based on the presence of multicollinearity, and the Hildreth-Lu Method was utilized to correct for the autocorrelation in error. The regression results illustrated that the only commodity of the three considered in the study that had a positive and statistically significant impact on the cost of food over the sample period was corn (p-value = 0.005). The coefficients on wheat and soybean prices were statistically insignificant. The historical fuel price had the expected positive sign and was statistically significant. The agricultural technology factor was not significant. The results also suggested that the cereal grains supply chain has significantly increased the cost of food. Both the cereal grain farm value share and the retail-to-farm spread for cereal grains were statistically significant (p-value < 0.000) with positive coefficients. The price spread of fruit was statistically significant, (p-value = 0.000), but the farm value was not. The regression results were initially surprising for the crop price variables. The overall analysis supports previous studies that crop subsidies alone may not have impacted food prices per se, but biofuel policies may have had unintended consequences. Crop-specific results provide more information to consider when discussing The Farm Bill and the implications of such a complicated and omnibus piece of legislation.

traders are perceived to extract monopoly rents from farmers by offering very low prices. However, little attempt has been made to understand the behaviour of private traders and the factors that influence their behaviour. This study, therefore, examines the behaviour of private traders and determines the factors influencing their behaviour by means of the Chi-squared test. It further identifies the characteristics of smallholder farmers and private traders transacting with each other and examines the pricing, grading and weighting systems used by private traders, as well as the relationship that exists between farmers and private traders. Understanding private trader behaviour, factors influencing this behaviour, and the relationship between farmers and these private traders are important questions and have great implications for policy. Primary data was used in this study which involved interviews and direct observations with both private traders and smallholder farmers. The sample sizes for private traders and smallholder farmers were 50 and 200, respectively. The data was collected in the Kalomo District of Zambia between June and August, 2015. Only those farmers that transact with private traders or use assembly traders as the marketing channel were included in this study. The data collected was analysed using gross marketing margin, the Chi-squared test and descriptive statistics. The measure of the extent of opportunistic behaviour was also used to achieve the study objectives. The findings show that the mean price paid by private traders was ZMW 0.989 (USD 0.13) per kg and private traders were the ones who determine the prices and grades of maize. The private traders also weigh the maize and the smallholder farmers have little control on the final weight of the maize, as they do not participate in the weighing. This indicates that the private traders have power in the determination of the weight of maize. The majority of the private traders were found to behave opportunistically, accounting for 58 % of the surveyed traders. Experience and education level of the private traders were found to influence their behaviour. Given the importance of the above factors in influencing private trader behaviour, particularly experience and education, the results suggest that monitoring of the maize trading could potentially significantly reduce opportunistic behaviour among these less-experienced and less-educated traders. Lastly, the study reveals that 68.5 % of the smallholder farmers did not trust the private traders, whereas 46 % of the private traders did trust the farmers. The findings of this study indicate great potential for public sector investments in organisations that ensure standard weights (such as the Zambia Weights and Measures Agency 'ZWMA') and grades for maize. The ZWMA is the Zambian organisation responsible for enforcing weight institutions. An agency enforcing grading institutions for the smallholder maize farmers, however, does not exist in Zambia. Investment in such organisations would increase the levels of trust between farmers and traders, as neither would be suspicious of the weight or grade obtained, and possible opportunistic behaviour would be reduced. The suggestions and recommendations given by this study should help reduce the possibilities for opportunistic behaviour and exploitation of smallholder farmers. Because this study is in line with Zambia's poverty reduction plan to reduce poverty levels through increased agricultural production and improved maize trading among smallholder farmers, the recommendations given will help improve maize trading and the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. This is because they will be able to sell their maize at higher prices owing to reduced opportunistic behaviour of private traders, thus realising profits. The development of a grading system will lead to a better trading environment for both smallholder farmers and private traders, as both parties will be certain of the maize quality. In conclusion, a trading environment where organisations and institutions are in place, monitored and enforced to ensure reliable grading and weighing systems will help improve maize trading by smallholder farmers and private traders in Zambia. The improved maize trading will be the result of reduced opportunistic behaviour. This will ultimately increase the welfare of smallholder farmers and improve their livelihoods, which will contribute towards the reduction of the poverty levels in Zambia. / Dissertation (MSc (Agric))--University of Pretoria, 2016. / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / MSc (Agric) / Unrestricted

O comportamento da margem de comercialização como indicador de eficiência e desempenho do sistema de comercialização agrícola foi alvo de diversas pesquisas, principalmente, nos anos 1970 e início dos anos 1990, período de elevadas taxas de inflação na economia brasileira. Diversas alterações no cenário macroeconômico do período pós Plano Real (estabilização monetária, abertura econômica, modificações no regime cambial, etc.), concomitantemente com a diminuição da intervenção estatal, justificam que o tema seja novamente abordado, o que foi feito nesta dissertação considerando um produto essencial na alimentação do povo brasileiro, notadamente daqueles com menor poder aquisitivo o arroz. Em relação a esse cereal, constata-se crescimento da produção nacional, principalmente em razão a ganhos de produtividade, destacando-se a concentração da sua produção no Rio Grande do Sul. Pelo lado da demanda, observa-se uma lenta diminuição do consumo per capita, devido a fatores como aumento da renda, da taxa de urbanização e mudanças nos hábitos de consumo. Entretanto, o arroz ainda é um produto básico na alimentação do brasileiro, sendo o estado de São Paulo o maior centro de consumo do cereal. O objetivo principal deste trabalho foi examinar os fatores que afetam a margem de comercialização do arroz produzido no Rio Grande do Sul e consumido na cidade de São Paulo de agosto de 1994 até março de 2011. Para tanto foi estimado um modelo econométrico para captar as relações entre as variáveis que afetam essa margem. Esse modelo, proposto por Aguiar (1994), foi estimado no presente trabalho utilizando a metodologia VEC (Modelos de Autorregressão Vetorial com Correção de Erro com identificação pelo processo de Bernanke). As variáveis utilizadas para explicar a margem absoluta de comercialização foram: preço ao varejo na cidade de São Paulo; preço ao produtor no Rio Grande do Sul; e como itens de custo de comercialização: a taxa de juros (Selic); o rendimento médio do trabalhador privado da região metropolitana de Porto Alegre; o preço do litro óleo diesel; uma proxy de risco de preço; e, por fim, o índice de preços de fertilizantes tomado como proxy dos custos agrícolas. O resultado da função impulso resposta mostra que todas as variáveis de custo de comercialização afetaram positivamente a margem. O choque positivo de 1% no índice de preços dos fertilizantes, variável representativa do custo agrícola, tem efeito acumulado de 0,15% sobre a margem, indicando, conforme o modelo teórico discutido, que no período analisado as variações de preços do arroz partiram predominantemente do segmento varejista. A decomposição histórica da variância dos erros de previsão (dentro da amostra) aponta que os fundamentos explicam, em conjunto, pelo menos de 93% das variações da margem em 100% dos casos. Adicionalmente, observa-se que os choques de demanda (preço ao varejo) e de oferta (preço ao produtor) são os principais determinantes da variação da margem - desvios ocorridos entre os valores efetivos e os previstos sendo de menor importância os custos de comercialização e agrícola. / The behavior of the marketing margin as an indicator of efficiency and performance of the agricultural marketing system was the subject of several studies, mainly in the 1970s and early 1990s, a period of high inflation rates in the Brazilian economy. Several changes in the macroeconomic scenario of the period after the Real Plan (monetary stabilization, economic liberalization, changes in exchange rate regime, etc.), along with the reduction of State intervention, justify raising this issue again, what has been done in this dissertation, considering a central food product for the Brazilian people, especially those of lower income - rice. Regarding the cereal, the national production grew, mainly due to productivity gains, with a particular concentration of production in Rio Grande do Sul. On the demand side, there is a slow decline in consumption per capita, due to factors such as increased income, urbanization rate and changes in consumer habits. However, rice is still a staple food in Brazil, and the state of São Paulo, the largest center for consumption of the cereal. The main objective of this study was to examine the factors that affect the marketing margin of the rice produced in Rio Grande do Sul and consumed in the city of São Paulo, from August 1994 until March 2011. In order to do so, we estimated an econometric model to capture the relationships between the variables that affect the margin. This model, proposed by Aguiar (1994), was estimated in this work using the VEC methodology (Auto-Regression Models with Vector Error Correction with the identification process by Bernanke). The variables used to explain the absolute margin of marketing were: retail price in the city of São Paulo; producer price in Rio Grande do Sul. As items of marketing cost: the interest rate (Selic); the average wages of private workers in the metropolitan area of Porto Alegre; the price per liter of the diesel fuel; a proxy of price risk; and, finally, the index of fertilizer prices used as a proxy agricultural costs. The result of the impulse response function shows that all the cost variables positively affected the marketing margin. The positive shock of 1% in the index of fertilizer prices, the variable representing the cost of agriculture, has accumulated an effect of 0.15% on the margin, indicating, as the theoretical model discussed, that in the analyzed period the changes in prices of rice came predominantly from the retail segment. The historical decomposition of the variance of forecast errors (within the sample) indicates that the fundamentals explain together at least 93% of the variation margin in 100% of cases. Additionally, it is observed that the shocks of demand (retail price) and supply (producer price) are the main determinants of the margin variation - deviations between actual and predicted values - with minor significance of marketing and agriculture costs.

O comportamento da margem de comercialização como indicador de eficiência e desempenho do sistema de comercialização agrícola foi alvo de diversas pesquisas, principalmente, nos anos 1970 e início dos anos 1990, período de elevadas taxas de inflação na economia brasileira. Diversas alterações no cenário macroeconômico do período pós Plano Real (estabilização monetária, abertura econômica, modificações no regime cambial, etc.), concomitantemente com a diminuição da intervenção estatal, justificam que o tema seja novamente abordado, o que foi feito nesta dissertação considerando um produto essencial na alimentação do povo brasileiro, notadamente daqueles com menor poder aquisitivo o arroz. Em relação a esse cereal, constata-se crescimento da produção nacional, principalmente em razão a ganhos de produtividade, destacando-se a concentração da sua produção no Rio Grande do Sul. Pelo lado da demanda, observa-se uma lenta diminuição do consumo per capita, devido a fatores como aumento da renda, da taxa de urbanização e mudanças nos hábitos de consumo. Entretanto, o arroz ainda é um produto básico na alimentação do brasileiro, sendo o estado de São Paulo o maior centro de consumo do cereal. O objetivo principal deste trabalho foi examinar os fatores que afetam a margem de comercialização do arroz produzido no Rio Grande do Sul e consumido na cidade de São Paulo de agosto de 1994 até março de 2011. Para tanto foi estimado um modelo econométrico para captar as relações entre as variáveis que afetam essa margem. Esse modelo, proposto por Aguiar (1994), foi estimado no presente trabalho utilizando a metodologia VEC (Modelos de Autorregressão Vetorial com Correção de Erro com identificação pelo processo de Bernanke). As variáveis utilizadas para explicar a margem absoluta de comercialização foram: preço ao varejo na cidade de São Paulo; preço ao produtor no Rio Grande do Sul; e como itens de custo de comercialização: a taxa de juros (Selic); o rendimento médio do trabalhador privado da região metropolitana de Porto Alegre; o preço do litro óleo diesel; uma proxy de risco de preço; e, por fim, o índice de preços de fertilizantes tomado como proxy dos custos agrícolas. O resultado da função impulso resposta mostra que todas as variáveis de custo de comercialização afetaram positivamente a margem. O choque positivo de 1% no índice de preços dos fertilizantes, variável representativa do custo agrícola, tem efeito acumulado de 0,15% sobre a margem, indicando, conforme o modelo teórico discutido, que no período analisado as variações de preços do arroz partiram predominantemente do segmento varejista. A decomposição histórica da variância dos erros de previsão (dentro da amostra) aponta que os fundamentos explicam, em conjunto, pelo menos de 93% das variações da margem em 100% dos casos. Adicionalmente, observa-se que os choques de demanda (preço ao varejo) e de oferta (preço ao produtor) são os principais determinantes da variação da margem - desvios ocorridos entre os valores efetivos e os previstos sendo de menor importância os custos de comercialização e agrícola. / The behavior of the marketing margin as an indicator of efficiency and performance of the agricultural marketing system was the subject of several studies, mainly in the 1970s and early 1990s, a period of high inflation rates in the Brazilian economy. Several changes in the macroeconomic scenario of the period after the Real Plan (monetary stabilization, economic liberalization, changes in exchange rate regime, etc.), along with the reduction of State intervention, justify raising this issue again, what has been done in this dissertation, considering a central food product for the Brazilian people, especially those of lower income - rice. Regarding the cereal, the national production grew, mainly due to productivity gains, with a particular concentration of production in Rio Grande do Sul. On the demand side, there is a slow decline in consumption per capita, due to factors such as increased income, urbanization rate and changes in consumer habits. However, rice is still a staple food in Brazil, and the state of São Paulo, the largest center for consumption of the cereal. The main objective of this study was to examine the factors that affect the marketing margin of the rice produced in Rio Grande do Sul and consumed in the city of São Paulo, from August 1994 until March 2011. In order to do so, we estimated an econometric model to capture the relationships between the variables that affect the margin. This model, proposed by Aguiar (1994), was estimated in this work using the VEC methodology (Auto-Regression Models with Vector Error Correction with the identification process by Bernanke). The variables used to explain the absolute margin of marketing were: retail price in the city of São Paulo; producer price in Rio Grande do Sul. As items of marketing cost: the interest rate (Selic); the average wages of private workers in the metropolitan area of Porto Alegre; the price per liter of the diesel fuel; a proxy of price risk; and, finally, the index of fertilizer prices used as a proxy agricultural costs. The result of the impulse response function shows that all the cost variables positively affected the marketing margin. The positive shock of 1% in the index of fertilizer prices, the variable representing the cost of agriculture, has accumulated an effect of 0.15% on the margin, indicating, as the theoretical model discussed, that in the analyzed period the changes in prices of rice came predominantly from the retail segment. The historical decomposition of the variance of forecast errors (within the sample) indicates that the fundamentals explain together at least 93% of the variation margin in 100% of cases. Additionally, it is observed that the shocks of demand (retail price) and supply (producer price) are the main determinants of the margin variation - deviations between actual and predicted values - with minor significance of marketing and agriculture costs.