As the demand for safe and clean electricity increases, the New Zealand wind energy industry seems poised to expand. Many generating companies have projects in the planning stage and there are likely to be many more potential sites yet to be identified. Reliable wind climate predictions over a wide area and for different heights above grounds are often vital to determine the viability of wind farm projects. This study investigates the use of meteorological mesoscale models to determine the wind and energy resource, particularly in areas of complex terrain. Complex terrain environments are likely to be typical of where New Zealand wind energy developments will take place. Using the prognostic mesoscale meteorological model TAPM (The Air Pollution Model), regions of relatively high mean wind speed were identified for a number of regions, including Banks Peninsula and parts of Canterbury and Otago. The simulations were conducted for a one-year period (2001) and at different heights above ground level. Depending on the resolution of the model calculations, speed-up effects from the forcing of some topographic features were accounted for by this model. Where the modelling was considered reliable, hourly wind data were obtained from grid points within the inner grid and used as input data for the industry-standard wind energy assessment model WAsP (The Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program). As WAsP is able to account for detailed topography and surface roughness features, wind and energy predictions at a specific site or over a wider area surrounding the site were made. Limitations of both models in complex terrain were identified. These limitations were due to a number of factors, including the grid spacing used for mesoscale model calculations, the complexity of the terrain, and difficulties in modelling some regional scale airflow regimes. Being aware of when and where model limitations are likely to occur is important in being able to overcome and account for them.

As the demand for safe and clean electricity increases, the New Zealand wind energy industry seems poised to expand. Many generating companies have projects in the planning stage and there are likely to be many more potential sites yet to be identified. Reliable wind climate predictions over a wide area and for different heights above grounds are often vital to determine the viability of wind farm projects. This study investigates the use of meteorological mesoscale models to determine the wind and energy resource, particularly in areas of complex terrain. Complex terrain environments are likely to be typical of where New Zealand wind energy developments will take place. Using the prognostic mesoscale meteorological model TAPM (The Air Pollution Model), regions of relatively high mean wind speed were identified for a number of regions, including Banks Peninsula and parts of Canterbury and Otago. The simulations were conducted for a one-year period (2001) and at different heights above ground level. Depending on the resolution of the model calculations, speed-up effects from the forcing of some topographic features were accounted for by this model. Where the modelling was considered reliable, hourly wind data were obtained from grid points within the inner grid and used as input data for the industry-standard wind energy assessment model WAsP (The Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program). As WAsP is able to account for detailed topography and surface roughness features, wind and energy predictions at a specific site or over a wider area surrounding the site were made. Limitations of both models in complex terrain were identified. These limitations were due to a number of factors, including the grid spacing used for mesoscale model calculations, the complexity of the terrain, and difficulties in modelling some regional scale airflow regimes. Being aware of when and where model limitations are likely to occur is important in being able to overcome and account for them.

This dissertation establishes a precipitation climatology for common storm types and structures in southeast Texas, investigating diurnal, seasonal, and interannual rainfall variations in addition to climatological differences in raindrop size distributions and storm divergence profiles. Divergence profiles observed by an S-band, Doppler radar are compared to ensemble simulations of ten precipitating systems occurring in warm season, weakly baroclinic, and strongly baroclinic environments. Eight triply-nested mesoscale model simulations are conducted for each case using single- and double- moment microphysics with four convective treatments (i.e., two convective parameterizations and explicit vs. parameterized convection at 9 km). Observed and simulated radar reflectivities are objectively separated into convective, stratiform, and non-precipitating anvil columns and comparisons are made between ensemble mean echo coverages and levels of non-divergence (LNDs). In both the model and observations, storms occurring in less baroclinic environments have more convective rain area, less stratiform rain area, and more elevated divergence profiles. The model and observations agree best for well-organized, leading-line trailing stratiform systems. Excessive convective rain area and elevated LNDs are simulated for several less organized cases. Simulations parameterizing convection on the intermediate grid produced less elevated divergence profiles with smaller magnitudes compared to their explicit counterparts. In one warm season case, double-moment microphysics generated lower LNDs associated with variations in convective intensity and depth, detraining less ice to anvil and stratiform regions at midlevels relative to a single-moment scheme. Similarly, mesoscale convective vortex simulations employing an ensemble-based versus a single-closure convective parameterization produced the least elevated heating structures (closer to observed) resulting in the weakest midlevel vortices. Finally, this dissertation is unique in that some of the data collection and a portion of the analysis involved 95 undergraduates in a five-year research and education program, the Student Operational ADRAD Project (SOAP). In addition to documenting the program's structure and implementation, student-reported experiences, confidence, and interest in performing SOAP tasks are also analyzed. Students participating in SOAP for multiple years were significantly more confident in performing SOAP tasks, more likely to obtain science or meteorology-related employment upon graduation, and more likely to matriculate to graduate programs, suggesting programs like SOAP have a strong influence on students' career outcomes and self-efficacy.

The topography of South Africa (SA) shows complex variations and is one the main factors that determine the daily weather patterns and climate characteristics. It affects for example temperature, winds and rainfall (intensity and distribution). Mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are used to simulate atmospheric motions with high horizontal grid resolution using appropriate cumulus parameterisation schemes. They also allow users to investigate the effects of topography and surface heating on the development of convective systems. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was applied over the complex terrain of SA to simulate extreme weather events and evaluate the influence of topography and grid resolution on the accuracy of weather simulations. This includes heavy precipitation event that lead to floods over Limpopo region of SA which was caused by the tropical depression Dando for the period 16 -18 January 2012; the heat wave events over Limpopo region for the period 22-26 October 2011 and also over Cape region for the period 15-18 January 2012. The Grell-Devenyi Ensemble (GDE) cumulus parameterization scheme was applied. The WRF model was run at a horizontal resolution of 9 km with 3 km nests, one over Limpopo and another over Cape region respectively. A total of 210 South African Weather Service (SAWS) synoptic stations data were used to verify the model, with 37 stations located over Limpopo and 88 over Cape region. The WRF model simulations are able to capture the spatial and temporal distribution of the heat wave over Limpopo and Cape regions respectively. The model verification with observational data showed that the performance statistics are in the expected range. The experiments without topography give unrealistic verification scores. The increase of model grid resolution from 9 to 3 km improved the spatial and temporal distribution and performance statistics. The above findings are in general similar for the two heat wave events, although the influence of topography over Cape region is not too pronounced. This can be attributed to different topographic variations over the Cape region as compared to the Limpopo region. The WRF model captured well the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall patterns; verification statistics shows over-prediction of its intensity in simulation with topography. The simulation without topography shows unrealistic space and intensity of rain distribution. An increase in model grid resolution from 9 to 3 km shows improved spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. The importance of high grid resolution and the use of non-hydrostatic equations are confirmed by the analysis of the vertical velocity distribution and moisture fluxes. The overall findings proved that topography plays a major role to weather and climate over SA. The high grid resolution allows for a better topography representation and capturing convective activities by the use of nonhydrostatic approximations. Therefore the WRF model proved to be useful forecasting tool for weather and climate simulations and can be used for operational weather forecasting over South Africa. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / lk2014 / Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology / MSc / Unrestricted

The optical turbulence, which creates perturbations of the wavefronts coming from the stars, is caused by small-scale fluctuations in the index of refraction of the atmosphere and is a problem for astronomers because it limits the maximum resolution of the ground-based telescopes. One way of identifying the best sites to build astronomical observatories, where the influence of the optical turbulence is as small as possible, is to use the standard meteorological parameters to get a first idea of the potential of a site. In the first part of this thesis the three sites on the Internal Antarctic Plateau that are the most interesting for astronomers (Dome A, Dome C and the South Pole) are investigated using the operational analyses of the ECMWF and a ranking of these three sites is presented. The second part of this thesis focuses on the ability of the mesoscale model Meso-NH to simulate the optical turbulence as well as the wind speed at Mt Graham (AZ, USA). A rich sample of measurements of the vertical distribution of the optical turbulence, the largest sample used in this type of study so far, is used to calibrate the Meso-NH model and to quantify its ability to simulate the optical turbulence. The measurements are distributed over different periods of the year thus making it possible to evaluate the performance of the model in different seasons. Both the vertical distribution of the optical turbulence and the astroclimatic parameters (seeing, wavefront coherence time and isoplanatic angle) are investigated. / Felaktigt tryckt som Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology 708