Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Meteorology, 1979. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Bibliography : leaves 82-83. / by Frank Parker Colby, Jr. / M.S.

Thesis. 1977. M.S.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Meteorology. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Bibliography : leaves 96-97. / M.S.

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Thesis. 1978. Ph.D.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Meteorology. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Bibliography: leaves 202-207. / Ph.D.

This study seeks to investigate weather-related flight delay trends at 13 United States airports. Flight delay data were collected from 2004-2019 and normalized by airport operations data. Using Support Vector Regression (SVR), visual trends were identified. Further analysis was conducted by comparing all four meteorological seasons through computing 95% bootstrap confidence intervals on their means. Finally, precipitation and snowfall data were correlated with normalized delays to investigate how they are related. This study found that the season with the highest normalized delay values is heavily dependent upon location. Most airports saw a decrease in the SVR line at some point since 2004, but have since leveled off. It was also discovered that while precipitation trends are not changing drastically, delay variability has decreased at many airports in the last 10 years, which may be indicative of more effective mitigation strategies.

While conventional drought has been studied for many years, new research focuses on different aspects and types of drought. Flash Drought is a relatively new area of research in drought literature, dating back to the last ten to twenty years in the United States. Flash drought in the Caribbean has received minimal attention from researchers, but it has been studied in the United States primarily because of the 2012 flash drought event over the Great Plains. This study focuses on flash drought events in Puerto Rico and the Caribbean. Because the rapid onset and intensity of flash drought can potentially cause more devastation without established prediction methods, this research seeks to understand the synoptic scale atmospheric drivers of flash drought events. Recent occurrences of a flash drought event in this region include the 2015 event in Puerto Rico, which resulted in water rationing and shortages for residents of the island (Mote et al., 2017). The primary goal of this study is to understand how flash drought initiates and propagates for Puerto Rico and the Caribbean using two definitions of flash drought. One definition is based on soil moisture deficit, and the second definition is based on the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), an experimental drought monitoring tool. Results suggest that an anomalous convection and positive moisture event followed by negative moisture anomalies and persistent subsidence contribute to flash drought event initiation and propagation. Additionally, large scale flash drought events seem to be initiating more frequently, suggesting that the island is becoming more susceptible to the devastations of flash drought. / Master of Science / Drought in the United States is a well-known occurrence typically caused by high temperatures and low precipitation rates. States in the Western US like California, Arizona, Nevada, and more have been negatively impacted by persistent drought. These negative impacts include water rationing laws, struggling agricultural yield, and many days without precipitation. In recent years, it has been discovered that drought has a counterpart known as flash drought. Flash drought is to flash flooding as drought is to a floodplain. Floodplains are areas prone to persistent flooding, but flash flooding occurs in a matter of minutes or hours due to extremely intense precipitation and a lack of drainage for the water to leave. Flash drought is very similar to flash flooding due to the rapid onset and intensification. Flash drought has been studied for the United States in some cases, but there is very little known about flash drought in Puerto Rico and the Caribbean. This study seeks to understand how flash drought initiates and intensifies in Puerto Rico. Results of this study suggest that flash drought can initiate immediately after a large precipitation event that is followed by days without precipitation. Because of the amount of moisture after the precipitation, the atmosphere wants to evaporate that moisture back out. As more moisture is evaporated, the land becomes drier and drier, especially when there is no follow up precipitation. The lack of follow up precipitation is also explained in this study. It was found that following the big precipitation event, the atmosphere does not create more precipitation because of a persistent state of downward vertical motion. Upward vertical motion is needed for precipitation to occur, so the combination of downward vertical motion and dry air results in a flash drought event in Puerto Rico.

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