Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-26T13:32:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.pdf: 717763 bytes, checksum: e623d83648529a004b8aa2a3e4877433 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-12-05 / We considered a Bayesian analysis of first order autoregressive, AR(1), panel data model, using exact likelihood function, comparative analysis of prior distributions and predictive distributions of future observations. The methodology efficiency was evaluated by a simulation study using three prior, which were related to different Generalized Beta distributions: symmetric, asymmetric and flat prior. We applied the proposed methodology to microarray time series real data of HeLa cells. The forecast of gene expression in one future time showed high efficiency. / Considerou-se uma análise Bayesiana do modelo auto- regressivo de primeira ordem, AR(1), para dados em painel, de forma a utilizar a função de verossimilhança exata, a análise de comparação de distribuições a priori e a obtenção de distribuições preditivas de dados futuros. A eficiência da metodologia proposta foi avaliada mediante um estudo de simulação, no qual a distribuição Beta Generalizada foi usada para representar 3 diferentes prioris: simétrica, assimétrica e constante. Realizou-se uma aplicação em dados reais de expressão gênica temporal de células HeLa gerados por microarray. Os resultados mostraram alta eficiência na previsão da expressão gênica para um instante futuro.

Our intention is to find similarity among the time series expressions of the genes in microarray experiments. It is hypothesized that at a given time point the concentration of one gene’s mRNA is directly affected by the concentration of other gene’s mRNA, and may have biological significance. We define dissimilarity between two time-series data set as the variance of Euclidean distances of each time points. The large numbers of gene expressions make the calculation of variance of distance in each point computationally expensive and therefore computationally challenging in terms of execution time. For this reason we use autoregressive model which estimates nineteen points gene expression to a three point vector. It allows us to find variance of difference between two data sets without point-to-point matching. Previous analysis from the microarray experiments data found that 62 genes are regulated following EGF (Epidermal Growth Factor) and HRG (Heregulin) treatment of the MCF-7 breast cancer cells. We have chosen these suspected cancer-related genes as our reference and investigated which additional set of genes has similar time point expression profiles. Keeping variance of difference as a measure of distance, we have used several methods for clustering the gene expression data, such as our own maximum clique finding heuristics and hierarchical clustering. The results obtained were validated through a text mining study. New predictions from our study could be a basis for further investigations in the genesis of breast cancer. Overall in 84 new genes are found in which 57 genes are related to cancer among them 35 genes are associated with breast cancer.