Simulation is an important tool for prediction and assessment of the behavior of complex systems and situations. The importance of simulation has increased tremendously during the last few decades, mainly because the rapid pace of development in the field of electronics has turned the computer from a costly and obscure piece of equipment to a cheap ubiquitous tool which is now an integral part of our daily lives. While such technological improvements make it easier to analyze well-understood deterministic systems, increase in speed and storage capacity alone are not enough when simulating situations where human beings and their behavior are an integral part of the system being studied. The problem with simulation of intelligent entities is that intelligence is still not well understood and it seems that the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has a long way to go before we get computers to think like humans. Behavior-based agent modeling has been proposed in mid-80's as one of the alternatives to the classical AI approach. While used mainly for the control of specialized robotic vehicles with very specific sensory capabilities and limited intelligence, we believe that a behavior-based approach to modeling generic autonomous agents in complex environments can provide promising results. To this end, we are investigating a behavior-based model for controlling groups of collaborating and competing agents in a geographic terrain. In this thesis, we are focusing on scenarios of military nature, where agents can move within the environment and adversaries can eliminate each other through use of weapons. Different aspects of agent behavior like navigation to a goal or staying in group formation, are implemented by distinct behavior modules and the final observed behavior for each agent is an emergent property of the combination of simple behaviors and their interaction with the environment. Our experiments show that while such an approach is quite efficient in terms of computational power, it has some major drawbacks. One of the problems is that reactive behavior-based navigation algorithms are not well suited for environments with complex mobility constraints where they tend to perform much worse than proper path planning. This problem represents an important research question, especially when it is considered that most of the modern military conflicts and operations occur in urban environments. One of the contributions of this thesis is a novel approach to reactive navigation where goals and terrain information are fused based on the idea of transforming a terrain with obstacles into a virtual obstacle-free terrain. Experimental results show that our approach can successfully combine the low run-time computational complexity of reactive methods with the high success rates of classical path planning. Another interesting research problem is how to deal with the unpredictable nature of emergent behavior. It is not uncommon to have situations where an outcome diverges significantly from the intended behavior of the agents due to highly complex nonlinear interactions with other agents or the environment itself. Chances of devising a formal way to predict and avoid such abnormalities are slim at best, mostly because such complex systems tend to be be chaotic in nature. Instead, we focus on detection of deviations through tracking group behavior which is a key component of the total situation awareness capability required by modern technology-oriented and network-centric warfare. We have designed a simple and efficient clustering algorithm for tracking of groups of agent suitable for both spatial and behavioral domain. We also show how to detect certain events of interest based on a temporal analysis of the evolution of discovered clusters.

In the past two decades policy assisting computer models have made a tremendous impact in the analysis of national security issues and the analysis of problems in various government affairs. SURMAN (Survivability Management) is a policy assisting model that has been developed for use in national security planning. It is a large scale model formulated using the system dynamics approach of treating a problem in its entirety rather than in parts. In this thesis, an encapsulation of SURMAN is attempted so as to sharpen and focus its ability to perform policy/design evaluation. It is also aimed to make SURMAN more accessible to potential users and to provide a simple tool to the decision makers without having to resort to the mainframe computers. To achieve these objectives a personal/microcomputer version of SURMAN (PC SURMAN) and a series of curves relating inputs to outputs are developed. PC SURMAN reduces the complexity of SURMAN by dealing with generic aircraft. It details the essential survivability management parameters and their causal relationships through the life-cycle of aircraft systems. The model strives to link the decision parameters (inputs) to the measures of effectiveness (outputs). The principal decision variables identified are survivability, availability, and inventory of the aircraft system. The measures of effectiveness identified are the Increase Payload Delivered to Target Per Loss (ITDPL), Cost Elasticity of Targets Destroyed Per Loss (CETDPL), Combat Value Ratio (COMVR), Kill to Loss Ratio (KLR), and Decreased Program Life-Cycle Cost (DPLCC). The model provides an opportunity for trading off decision parameters. The trading off of survivability enhancement techniques and the defense budget allocation parameters for selecting those techniques/parameters with higher benefits and lower penalties are discussed. The information relating inputs to outputs for the tradeoff analysis is presented graphically using curves derived from experimentally designed computer runs. / M.S.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / Organizational structure has profound effects on a joint force commander's ability to perform military actions. Organizations and their environment exhibit an interdependent relationship, requiring a commander to evolve his organization to rapidly achieve mission accomplishment. The CNO Strategic Studies Group XIX report of September 2000 has identified the FORCEnet as being the basis for the U.S. Navy's future network-centric organization, and outlines a military environment that includes multitudes of manned and unmanned vehicles, platforms, sensors, weapons and warfighters. These naval elements will operate jointly, leveraging organizational structure to rapidly sense, assess, and respond to the defense of the nation's security interests as directed by the President. The focus of this research is to examine this envisioned future military environment, the military actions required to achieve success in that environment and the organizational structure(s) that will best fit those action requirements. / Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy

Thesis (M.S. in Joint Campaign Planning and Strategy)--Joint Forces Staff College, Joint Advanced Warfighting School, 2007. / "5 April 2007." AD-A468 869. Includes bibliographical references. Also available via the World Wide Web.

Decision-making in resource allocation can be a complex and daunting task. Often there exist circumstances where there is no clear optimal path to choose, and instead the decision maker must predict future need and allocate accordingly. The application of resource allocation can be seen in many organizations, from military, to high end commercial and political, and even individuals living their daily life. We define resource allocation as follows: the allocation of owner’s assets to further the particular cause of the owner. We propose two ways that computers can assist with the task of resource allocation. Firstly they can provide decision support mechanisms, with alternate strategies for the allocations that might not have been previously considered. Secondly, they can provide training mechanisms to challenge human decision makers in learning better resource allocation strategies. In this research we focus on the latter, and provide the following general hypothesis: Coevolutionary algorithms are an effective mechanism for the creation of a computer player for strategic decision-making games. To address this hypothesis, we present a system that uses coevolution to learn new strategies for the resource allocation game of TEMPO. The game of TEMPO provides a perfect test bed for this research, as it abstracts real-world military resource allocation, and was developed for training Department of Defence personnel. The environment created allows players to practice their strategic decision-making skills, providing an opportunity to analyse and improve their technique. To be truly effective in this task, the computer player the human plays against must be continuously challenging, so the human can steadily improve. In our research the computer player is represented as a fuzzy logic rule base, which allows us investigation into the strategies being created. This provides insight into the ways the coevolution addresses strategic decision-making. Importantly, TEMPO also gives us an abstraction of another component of strategic decision-making that is not directly available in other games – that of intelligence (INTEL) and counter intelligence (CI). When resource allocation is occurring in a competitive circumstance, it is often beneficial to gain insight into what your opponent is doing through intelligence. In turn, an opponent may seek to halt or skew the information being gained. The use of INTEL and CI in TEMPO allows research into the effects this has on the resource allocation process and the coevolved computer player. The development of a computer player for the game of TEMPO gives us endless possibilities of research. In this research, we have focused on the creation a computer player that can provide a fun and challenging environment for humans learning resource allocation strategies. We investigate the addition of memory to a coevolutionary algorithm for strategy creation. This includes mechanisms to select memory individuals for evaluation of coevolutionary individuals. We describe a successful strategy of selection, based on the way a human’s short and long term memory works. We then investigate the use of INTEL and CI in the game of TEMPO, and the way it is used by the coevolved computer players. Through this work, we present a new version of the TEMPO game that more realistically represents INTEL and CI. Finally, we describe a process that uses coevolution to adapt to a human player real-time, to create a tailored game-play experience. This process was tested in a user study, and showed a distinct advantage through the adaptive mechanism. Overall, we have made some important discoveries, and described some limitations that leave future research open. Ultimately, we have shown that our hypothesis is an achievable goal, with an exciting future. / Thesis (Ph.D.) - University of Adelaide, School of Computer Science, 2008

Thesis (M. of Military Art and Science)--U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, 2007. / The original document contains color images. Title from title page of PDF document (viewed on May 27, 2008). Includes bibliographic references.

Thesis (Master of Military Studies)-Marine Corps Command and Staff College, 2008. / Title from title page of PDF document (viewed on: Jan 12, 2010). Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Master of Military Studies)-Marine Corps Command and Staff College, 2008. / Title from title page of PDF document (viewed on: Jan 8, 2010). Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense))--Naval Postgraduate School, 2005. / Title from title screen (viewed Apr. 12, 2006). "March 2005." Includes bibliographical references (p. 69-72) Also issued in paper format.

Thesis (MComm)--University of Stellenbosch, 2002. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Defence forces around the world are experiencing a period of dynamic change with new force structures being combined with new technologies in an effort to enhance effectiveness. Present day resources and technology available to the modern society, have facilitated the evolution of warfare as a technologically advanced enterprise, with the decided emphasis on the digitisation of the battlefield. With rapid development in the field of battlefield digitisation there is an increasing need to address the important issues and challenges facing the military. In order to meet strategic defence guidelines, it is necessary to integrate the capabilities of defence forces with modern technology. In this regard the South African Defence Force is striving towards the digitisation of the battlefield. This digitisation can potentially satisfy the many requirements set for the Defence Force, in a more timely and cost-effective manner than traditional methods of functioning and training would be able to achieve. Effective situational awareness and command and control structures are essential for any military operation, especially with increasingly complex military demands. Key areas of importance are the collection, dissemination and management of information, which if executed skilfully, will result in forces capable of operating more effectively and with greater flexibility. Decision makers on the battlefield continually suffer from information overload due to the extremely rapid inflow of information. This is likely to worsen with the continued introduction of new information technologies. The technology level of any defence force should therefore be appropriate, driven by usefulness and cost-effectiveness. The digitised battlefield allows for the execution of near realistic military exercises, while conserving material and reducing the detrimental impact on environment and personnel, as is the case with traditional exercises. A key issue of focus is the usability and integration of related technologies within the digital battlefield. Promoting optimal usability through continuous and comprehensive user-based evaluation is crucial and will result in increased human performance through interaction with technology. Optimal usability must be engineered into any product (defined as something produced by means of either human or mechanical work) from the inception of the product's life cycle. Within today's technology orientated society, the digitisation of the battlefield and the usability thereof have become increasingly important issues. Most research has investigated the concepts of battlefield digitisation and usability in isolation, and little co-ordinated effort has been made to integrate digitisation and usability, even though the relation is important and necessary. A study of this nature has not hitherto been conducted within the South African military context. The purpose of this study is to provide a theoretical background of the issues of military digitisation and usability, in order to determine the significance of this relation. This research aims specifically to promote the viewpoint that usability is central to military digitisation, as well as to emphasise the importance of user-centred approaches to system development and utilization. The result will be enhanced human performance and satisfaction when interacting with digital battlefield applications. The theoretical perspective is provided by way of a literature review of the relevant military and usability concepts. Military functioning is discussed, highlighting the importance of situational awareness and effective command and control capabilities. The digitisation in the military is examined with specific reference to Virtual Reality and simulation. An overview of usability (within a human-computer interaction and user-centred design context) and usability evaluation methods are provided. This research was conducted during a military exercise conducted by the South African National Defence Force. A usability inquiry approach was followed with questionnaires distributed to participants involved with the Command and Control Digital Battlefield System. Information was obtained concerning participants' characteristics, likes, dislikes, needs, and understanding of the digital battlefield system. The analyses of the information consisted of descriptive statistics as the research aimed to illustrate the attitudes concerning usability and the digital battlefield. The results provide an understanding of the perceptions of the users regarding the digital battlefield system and its usability. Conclusions are drawn from results obtained and recommendations are made for future research. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Moderne weermagte deur die wereld ervaar tans 'n peri ode van dinamiese verandering met nuwe magstrukture wat met nuwe tegnologiee gekombineer word ter bevordering van doeltreffendheid. Die hedendaagse hulpbronne en tegnologie tot die moderne samelewing se beskikking, het meegebring dat oorlogvoering ontwikkel het in 'n tegnologies gevorderde aksie met die klem op gevegsterrein-digitalisering. Die betreding van 'n era van tegnologies gevorderde oorlogvoering met die gepaardgaande snelle ontwikkelings in die veld van gevegsterrein digitalisering, het 'n toenemend groeiende behoefte laat ontstaan vir die indringende aanspreking van belangrike strydvrae en uitdagings wat 'n moderne weermag in die gesig staar.Tiit is noodsaaklik dat die vermoens van weermagte geintegreer word met moderne tegnologie ten einde aan strategiese verdedigingsvereistes te kan voldoen. Die Suid-Afrikaanse Nasionale Weermag het digitalisering van die gevegsterrein ten doel. Sodanige digitalisering kan potensieel die talle vereistes gestel aan 'n weermag op 'n meer tydige en koste-effektiewe wyse bevredig as wat met tradisionele metodes van funksionering en opleiding gedoen kan word. Effektiewe situasionele bewustheid en bevel en beheer strukture, is onontbeerlik in enige militere operasie, veral in die lig van toenemende komplekse eise gestel aan die moderne weermag. Sleutelareas van belang is die insameling, disseminasie en bestuur van inligting, wat as dit met die nodige insig en kundigheid uitgevoer word, aanleiding sal gee tot die verhoogde doeltreffendheid en buigsaamheid van 'n weermag. Die tegnologiese vlak van enige weermag behoort dus toepaslik en bruikbaar te wees, sowel as koste-effektief gedrewe. Die gedigitaliseerde gevegsterrein maak vcorsiening vir die uitvoering van bykans-realistiese militere oefeninge met behoud van material en grootskaalse uitskakeling van die negatiewe invloede op die omgewing en personeel, meer so as wat andersins die geval sou wees met tradisionele oefeninge. 'n Sleutel-aspek is die bruikbaarheid en integrasie van verwante tegnologiee in 'n gedigitaliseerde gevegsterrein. Die bevordering van optimale bruikbaarheid deur aaneenlopende en omvattende gebruikersbaseerde evaluasies, is deurslaggewend en sal lei tot verhoogde gebruiker prestasie betreffende interaksie met tegnologie. Optimale bruikbaarheid moet reeds vanaf die aanvang van 'n produk se lewenssiklus, bewerkstellig word. In die hedendaagse tegnologie-gebaseerde moderne same lewing, het digitalisering van die gevegsterrein en die bruikbaarheid daarvan, toenemend belangrik geword. In die meeste navorsmg word gevegsterrein digitalisering, asook bruikbaarheid, afsonderlik ondersoek, onafgesien van die belangrike verwantskap daartussen, en slegs geringe gekoordineerde pogings is van stapel gestuur om digitalisering en bruikbaarheid te integreer. In die Suid-Afrikaanse rnilitere konteks is so 'n studie nog nie uitgevoer nie en derhalwe het hierdie studie ten doel om 'n teoretiese agtergrond te voorsien van militere digitalisering- en bruikbaarheidskwessies, asook die vasstelling van die verwantskap daartussen. Hierdie navorsing het spesifiek ten doel om die standpunt te bevorder dat bruikbaarheid sentraal staan tot militere digitalisering sowel as om die gebruiker-gebaseerde benadering tot sisteem ontwikkeling en benutbaarheid, te bevorder. Die resultaat sal verhoogde gebruikerprestasie en tevredenheid wees wanneer interaksie met gedigitaliseerde gevegsterrein toepassings plaasvind. Die teoretiese perspektief word voorsien deur 'n literatuur-oorsig van die relevante rnilitere- en bruikbaarheidskonsepte. Militere funksionering word bespreek met beklemtoning van die belang van situasionele bewustheid en doeltreffende bevel en beheer vermoens, Militere digitalisering word ondersoek met spesifieke verwysing na virtuele realiteit en simulasie. 'n Oorsig van bruikbaarheid (binne die konteks van mens-rekenaar interaksie en gebruikersgeorienteerde ontwerp) sowel as bruikbaarheidsevaluasie-metodes word voorsien. Hierdie navorsing is uitgevoer tydens 'n militere oefening van die Suid-Afrikaanse Nasionale Weermag. 'n Bruikbaarheidsondersoek-benadering is gevolg deur vraelyste uit te deel aan die deelnemers wat betrokke was by die gedigitaliseerde bevel en beheer stelsel. Informasie is ingewin betreffende die deelnemers se kenmerke, persepsies, voorkeure, afkeure, behoeftes en begrip van die gedigitaliseerde gevegsterrein-stelsel. Die analise van die informasie het beskrywende statistieke behels omdat die navorsing ten doe I gehad het om ingesteldhede betreffende bruikbaarheid en die gedigitaliseerde gevegsterrein, uit te lig. Die resultate voorsien 'n begrip van die persepsies van die gebruikers rakende die gedigitaliseerde gevegsterrein, en die bruikbaarheid daarvan. Gevolgtrekkings word gemaak vanuit die resultate verkry en aanbevelings word voorsien vir verdere toekomstige navorsing.