Spherea (anciennement Cassidian Test & Services), initiateur de la thèse, est un des leaders sur le marché des systèmes automatiques de test (ATE) pour la maintenance des véhicules aéronautiques et de défense. L’intérêt de la société dans la recherche en gestion intégrée de la santé de véhicules est motivé par le taux élevé de fausses déposes d’équipements survenues lors de la maintenance opérationnelle, détectées par les ATE. Ceci engendre des actions de maintenance superflues, et par conséquent des pertes majeurs de temps, d'énergie et d'argent. L’IVHM, de par ses capacités avancées de diagnostic et de pronostic, et son intégration au niveau de l'entreprise de la gestion de santé de véhicules pourrait permettre la réduction des taux de NFF. Néanmoins, les solutions de systèmes IVHM proposées par les communautés scientifique et industrielle sont la plupart du temps développées pour des systèmes spécifiques, et souvent fondées sur des concepts propriétaires. Cela a pour conséquence un manque de consensus à la fois dans les principes structurants des systèmes IVHM et dans leur ingénierie. Aujourd'hui, un défi majeur est de fournir un cadre de modélisation d’IVHM indépendamment du type de système d’intérêt, soutenant l’ingénierie des systèmes IVHM. Vers ce cadre, les principales contributions développées dans cette thèse construisent progressivement les fondations et les piliers d'un cadre de modélisation d’IVHM. La proposition, dans une vision système, des principes structurants d’un système de systèmes permet de définir au général un système IVHM. A partir de cette vision système, le focus de la thèse est orienté sur la gestion de santé du véhicule, fonction de l’IVHM centrée sur le véhicule constituant le catalyseur des décisions de maintenance au niveau opérationnel, ayant la capacité de résoudre le problème industriel à la genèse de la thèse. Les principes structurant clés de cette fonction en trois dimensions (dimension fonctionnelles, dimension d’abstraction, dimension de distribution entre le segment embarqué/sol) sont à la base de la proposition d’un cadre générique de modélisation d’IVHM considérant à la fois les fonctions internes et externes au véhicule. Ce cadre est investigué en cohérence avec une approche construite sur les modèles (MBSE). Conformément à cette approche MBSE, la modélisation, au sein de ce cadre d’IVHM, du module générique de gestion de la santé (gHMM) constitue le support d’intégration des fonctionnalités de diagnostic et de pronostic. Cette modélisation repose sur une vision « boîte noire » et « boîte blanche » du module traduite par un ensemble cohérent de diagrammes SysML, et se basant sur les structures de données standardisées d’OSA-CBM. La formalisation du gHMM permet d'intégrer le diagnostic et le pronostic, processus clés de l’IVHM, dans son sens conventionnel : du diagnostic vers le pronostic, que dans un sens original : du pronostic vers le diagnostic. Ce dernier sens est illustré par la proposition d'un algorithme support à une activité élémentaire du gHMM dans la finalité de réduire les groupes d’ambiguïtés dans le diagnostic. Cette ingénierie aboutit par conséquent à un cadre générique de modélisation, qui par un principe d’instanciation, permet la construction d’une architecture de gestion de l’état de santé d’un système IVHM particulier. Vers cette instanciation la thèse examine les caractéristiques qui impactent la conception d’architectures de gestion de la santé et la sélection d’algorithmes supportant ces architectures, et en propose une formalisation basée sur les ontologies pour la sélection multicritères d’algorithmes de diagnostic et de pronostic appropriés pour la gestion de la santé de véhicules. Finalement, le protocole de validation de l’ensemble des contributions est proposé et illustré à des échelles différentes pour la gestion de l’état de santé d’éoliennes et de drones / Spherea (formerly Cassidian Test & Services), initiator of the PhD thesis, is a leading provider of Automatic Test Equipment (ATE) solutions for aerospace and military vehicles’ maintenance. The company’s interest in Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) research is motivated by occurrence of No Fault Found (NFF) events detected by ATE, and determining superfluous maintenance activities and consequently major wastes of time, energy and money. IVHM, through its advanced diagnostics and prognostics capabilities, and integration at enterprise level of vehicle health management could solve NFF events occurring during operational-level maintenance. Nevertheless, IVHM systems proposed so far are most of the times developed and matured empirically, for specific vehicle systems, founded on proprietary concepts, and lacking of consensual structuring principles. This results in a lack of consensus in both the structuring principles of IVHM systems and their Systems Engineering. Today, the challenge is to provide an IVHM modelling framework independent from the type of supported system and usable for IVHM Systems Engineering. Towards such framework, the main contributions developed in this thesis progressively build the foundation and pillars of an IVHM modelling framework. The notion of system of systems drives our first proposal of defining principles of an overall IVHM system. From this system vision, the focus of the thesis is oriented on the vehicle centric function of IVHM as catalyst of maintenance decisions at operational level, having the ability to solve the industrial problems at the genesis of the thesis. The key structuring principles of this function are analysed upon three dimensions (functional dimension, a dimension of abstraction, and distribution between the on-board /on-ground segment), setting the basis of the proposal of a generic modelling framework IVHM, considering both vehicle and enterprise centric functions. This framework is built following a Model-based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach, supported by SysML. The major contribution of the thesis is the modelling, within the framework of IVHM, of the generic Health Management Module (gHMM), support for integration of diagnostics and prognostics, key processes of health management. The gHMM formalization enables to integrate diagnostics and prognostics not only in the conventional way: from diagnosis to prognosis, but also in an original one: from prognostics to diagnostics with the purpose of reducing ambiguity groups; the latter is backed-up through the proposal of an algorithm for one elementary activities of the gHMM. The gHMM MBSE engineering thus leads to a generic modelling framework, which, by a principle of instantiation, allows the construction of an IVHM system designed for the health management of individual vehicle systems. Towards such particularization, the thesis investigates characteristics impacting selection of appropriate supporting algorithms. This analysis enables to identify ten generic macro-criteria, which are further formalized based on ontologies and used within a multi-criteria based methodology suited for selecting diagnostics and prognostics algorithms for vehicle health management. Finally, the validation protocol of the scientific contributions is proposed, and applied at different scales of implementation in the field of wind turbine and UAV health management

One of the challenges for the constraint satisfaction community has been to develop an automated approach to solving Constraint Satisfaction Problems (CSPs) rather than creating specific algorithms for specific problems. Much of this work has concentrated on the development and improvement of general purpose backtracking techniques. However, the success of relatively simple local search techniques on larger satisfiability problems [Selman et a!. 1992] and CSPs such as the n-queens [Minton et al. 1992] has caused interest in applying local search to constraint satisfaction. In this thesis we look at the usefulness of constraint weighting as a local search technique for constraint satisfaction. The work is based on the clause weighting ideas of Selman and Kautz [1993] and Moths [1993] and applies, evaluates and extends these ideas from the satisfiability domain to the more general domain of CSPs. Specifically, the contributions of the thesis are: 1. The introduction of a local search taxonomy. We examine the various better known local search techniques and recognise four basic strategies: restart, randomness, memory and weighting. 2. The extension of the CSP modelling framework. In order to represent and efficiently solve more realistic problems we extend the C SP modelling framework to include array-based domains and array-based domain use constraints. 3. The empirical evaluation of constraint weighting. We compare the performance of three constraint weighting strategies on a range of CSP and satisflability problems and with several other local search techniques. We find that no one technique dominates in all problem domains. 4. The characterisation of constraint weighting performance. Based on our empirical study we identiIS' the weighting behaviours and problem features that favour constrtt weighting. We conclude weighting does better on structured problems where the algorithm can recognise a harder sub-group of constraints. 5. The extension of constraint weighting. We introduce an efficient arc weighting algorithm that additionally weights connections between constraints that are simultaneously violated at a local minimum. This algorithm is empirically shown to outperform standard constraint weighting on a range of CSPs and within a general constraint solving system. Also we look at combining constraint weighting with other local search heuristics and find that these hybrid techniques can do well on problems where the parent algorithms are evenly matched. 6. The application of constraint weighting to over constrained domains. Our empirical work suggests constraint weighting does well for problems with distinctions between constraint groups. This led us to investigate solving real-world over constrained problems with hard and soft constraint groups and to introduce two dynamic constraint weighting heuristics that maintain a distinction between hard and soft constraint groups while still adding weights to violated constraints in a local minimum. In an empirical study, the dynamic schemes are shown to outperform other fixed weighting and non-weighting systems on a range of real world problems. In addition, the performance of weighting is shown to degrade less severely when soft constraints are added to the system, suggesting constraint weighting is especially applicable to realistic, hard and soft constraint problems

The advent of next generation sequencing technologies has had a major impact on inference methods for population genetics. For example, community ecology studies can now assess species interactions using population history parameters estimated from genomic scale data. Figs and their pollinating fig wasps are obligate mutualists thought to have coevolved for some 75 million years. This relationship, along with additional interactions with many species of non-pollinating fig wasps (NPFW), makes this system an excellent model for studying multi-trophic community interactions. A common way of investigating the population histories of a community's component species is to use genetic markers to estimate demographic parameters such as divergence times and effective population sizes. The extent to which histories are congruent gives insights into the way in which the community has assembled. Because of coalescent variance, using thousands of loci from the genomes of a small number of individuals gives more statistical power and more realistic estimates of population parameters than previous methods using just a handful of loci from many individuals. In this thesis, I use genomic data from eleven fig wasp species, which are associated with three fig species located along the east coast of Australia, to characterise community assembly in this system. The first results chapter describes the laboratory and bioinformatic protocols required to generate genomic data from individual wasps, and assesses the level of genetic variation present across populations using simple summaries. The second results chapter presents a detailed demographic analysis of the pollinating fig wasp, Pleistodontes nigriventris. The inferences were made using a likelihood modelling framework and the pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) method. The final results chapter characterises community assembly by assessing congruence between the population histories inferred for eight fig wasp species. The population histories were inferred using a new composite likelihood modelling framework. I conclude by discussing the implications of the results presented along with potential future directions for the research carried out in this thesis.

The evolution of synapses from early proto-synaptic protein complexes in unicellular eukaryotes to sophisticated machines comprising thousands of proteins parallels the emergence of finely tuned synaptic plasticity, a molecular correlate for memory and learning. Phenotypic change in organisms is ultimately the result of evolution of their genotype at the molecular level. Selection pressure is a measure of how changes in genome sequence that arise though naturally occurring processes in populations are fixed or eliminated in subsequent generations. Inferring phylogenetic information about proteins such as the variation of selection pressure across coding sequences can provide valuable information not only about the origin of proteins, but also the contribution of specific sites within proteins to their current roles within an organism. Recent evolutionary studies of synaptic proteins have generated attractive hypotheses about the emergence of finely-tuned regulatory mechanisms in the post-synaptic proteome related to learning, however, these analyses are relatively superficial. In this thesis, I establish a scalable molecular phylogenetic modelling framework based on three new inference methodologies to investigate temporal and spatial aspects of selection pressure changes for the whole human proteome using protein orthologs from up to 68 taxa. Temporal modelling of evolutionary selection pressure reveals informative features and patterns for the entire human proteome and identifies groups of proteins that share distinct diversification timelines. Multi-ontology enrichment analysis of these gene cohorts was used to aid biological interpretation, but these approaches are statistically under powered and do not capture a clear picture of the emergence of synaptic plasticity. Subsequent pathway-centric analysis of key synaptic pathways extends the interpretation of temporal data and allows for revision of previous hypotheses about the evolution of complex synaptic function. I proceed to integrate inferred selection pressure timeline information in the context of static protein-protein interaction data. A network analysis of the full human proteome reveals systematic patterns linking the temporal profile of proteins’ evolution and their topological role in the interaction graph. These graphs were used to test a mechanistic hypothesis that proposed a propagating diversification signal between interactors using the temporal modelling data and network analysis tools. Finally, I analyse the data of amino-acid level spatial modelling of selection pressure events in Arc, one of the master regulators of synaptic plasticity, and its interactors for which detailed experimental data is available. I use the Arc interactome as an example to discuss episodic and localised diversifying selection pressure events in tightly coupled complexes of protein and showcase potential for a similar systematic analysis of larger complexes of proteins using a pathway-centric approach. Through my work I revised our understanding of temporal evolutionary patterns that shaped contemporary synaptic function through profiling of emergence and refinement of proteins in multiple pathways of the nervous system. I also uncovered systematic effects linking dependencies between proteins with their active diversification, and hypothesised about their extension to domain level selection pressure events.

In this dissertation System Dynamics is used as a modelling approach to model health care systems to gain a better understanding of the system’s behaviour. This improved understanding can be used to better manage the system and in turn will translate to improved health outcomes. The characteristics of complex systems were reviewed to define a health system as a complex system. Four appropriate modelling approaches was studied that could be used to model complex systems. These modelling approaches included: Monte Carlo Simulation, Discrete Event Simulation, System Dynamics and Agent Based Modelling. System Dynamics was identified as being the most appropriate modelling methodology to be used for the framework. Before the framework was developed health system performance measurement was reviewed to further the understanding of health system measurement. The framework was developed according to the insights gained from the previous reviews. Specifically the elements identification was customised to the health care environment based on available health indicators. The framework was applied in a case study where a section of the South Africa health care system was modelled to focus interventions for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The outcomes of the case studies delivered an increased understanding of the system behaviour and also showed appropriates of the framework. / Dissertation (MEng)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Industrial and Systems Engineering / unrestricted

Yes / The mechanical property enhancement of polymer reinforced with nano-thin clay platelets (of high aspect ratio) is associated with a high polymer-filler interfacial area per unit volume. The ideal case of fully separated (exfoliated) platelets is generally difficult to achieve in practice: a typical nanocomposite also contains multilayer stacks of intercalated platelets. Here we use numerical modelling to investigate how the platelet properties affect the overall mechanical properties. The configuration of platelets is modelled using a statistical interpretation of the Representative Volume Element (RVE) approach, in which an ensemble of "sample" heterogeneous material is generated (with periodic boundary conditions). A simple Monte Carlo algorithm is used to place non-intersecting platelets in the RVE according to a specified set of statistical distributions. The effective stiffness of the platelet-matrix system is determined by measuring the stress (using standard Finite Element analysis) produced as a result of applying a small deformation to the boundaries, and averaging over the entire statistical ensemble. In this work we determine the way in which the platelet properties (curvature, filling fraction, stiffness, aspect ratio) and the number of layers in the stack affect the overall stiffness enhancement of the nanocomposite. Thus, we bridge the gap between behaviour on the macroscopic scale with that on the scale of the nano-reinforcement, forming part of a multi-scale modelling framework.

La densification actuelle de l'urbanisation conduit à un changement d'occupation du sol et du réseau de drainage en zone péri-urbaine. L'écoulement est concentré dans des fossés ou des réseaux d'assainissement et ainsi accéléré. Ces phénomènes peuvent avoir des conséquences importantes pour les nappes et les cours d'eau, comme par exemple l'aggravation des crues et des sécheresses et l'altération de la qualité chimique et/ou biologique du milieu. Sous la pression réglementaire (Directive Cadre Européenne sur l'Eau) et la demande sociale, les gestionnaires sont donc confrontés à des choix complexes en terme d'aménagement. Ainsi, il est nécessaire de mettre au point des méthodes et des modèles capables de quantifier l'impact de l'augmentation de l'urbanisation sur la vulnérabilité des hydro-systèmes péri-urbains. Dans ce travail, nous formulons l'hypothèse qu'une modélisation hydrologique spatialisée continue, prenant explicitement en compte les objets des paysages périurbains (parcelles urbaines, agricoles, forestières, haies,..) et les éléments déterminant les chemins de l'eau (topographie, mais aussi réseaux d'assainissement ou de routes) peut aider à comprendre et hiérarchiser le rôle des différents objets du paysage sur la réponse hydrologique. Pour ce faire, le modèle distribué PUMMA (Peri-Urban Model for landscape Management) adapté aux bassins versants péri-urbains, a été développé dans le cadre de cette thèse. Il consiste en une intégration du modèle existant URBS, décrivant des processus hydrologiques urbains à l'échelle d'une parcelle cadastrale, dans la plate-forme de modélisation LIQUID, qui contient déjà des modules représentants des processus hydrologiques en zone rurale. PUMMA a également été complété par de nouveaux modules simulant les déversoirs d'orage, les bassins de rétention et le transfert du ruissellement de surface. Le modèle suit une approche orientée objet dans laquelle le paysage est divisé en mailles irrégualières, correspondant aux parcelles cadastrales en zone urbaine et aux unités de réponse hydrologiques (HRUs) en zone rurale. Afin de pouvoir appliquer le modèle à l'échelle d'un bassin versant, des méthodes automatiques pour la préparation des données géographiques ont été mises au point. De plus, une méthode a été développée pour déterminer les contours de bassins versants péri-urbains, en distinguant les surfaces contributives de temps sec et humide. Le modèle a été appliqué au bassin versant de la Chaudanne, un sous-bassin de l'Yzeron, situé en zone péri-urbaine lyonnaise pour deux années en conditions contrastées (sèche et humide). Les paramètres du modèle ont été spécifiés à partir des observations disponibles et des données de la littérature. Les résultats montrent un comportement du modèle réaliste et une aptitude à représenter les comportements différents en période sèche et humide, en lien avec des degrés de saturation des sols différents, même si les pics de débits d'été sont en général surestimés. Différents tests de sensibilité sur certains processus/paramètres montrent l'importance des processus urbains sur la réponse hydrologique du bassin, comme en particulier la génération de ruissellement de surface par les surfaces imperméables et naturelles urbaines, le drainage de l'eau du sol par les réseaux d'assainissement et les connexions entre les îlots urbains et le réseau hydrographique naturel et artificiel. L'épaisseur des sols et la conductivité hydraulique à saturation latérale jouent aussi un rôle important sur la dynamique du débit de base. Nous montrons aussi le potentiel du modèle pour tester différents scenarii d'aménagement ou de gestion des eaux pluviales. / Urban expansion mainly affects peri-urban areas. These areas are subject to rapid modifications such as an increase of impervious areas or concentration of runoff in sewer systems. These changes have an impact on local hydrology and can induce floods, pollution or decrease of groundwater resource. Modelling tools allowing a quantification of the sensitivity of peri-urban catchments to urbanization are therefore useful in this context. The hypothesis underlying this PhD is that a continuous distributed hydrological model, taking explicitly into account the spatial organization of the landscape (urban, agricultural, forest areas, hedges,..) and the water pathways, as determined by topography but also roads and sewer networks, can help to understand and hierarchize the role of various landscape elements on the hydrological response of small hydrosystems. We therefore designed the Peri-Urban Model for landscape MAnagement (PUMMA) simulating the rainfall-runoff processes both in urban and in rural areas. For this, the urban model URBS was integrated into the LIQUID modelling framework already containing modules describing hydrological processes in rural areas. Additionally, three process modules were developed describing sewer overflow devices, overland flow as well as retention basins and lakes. PUMMA follows an object-oriented approach. The landscape is discretized into cadastral parcels in urban areas and irregular hydrological response units in rural areas. In order to apply PUMMA to the catchment scale, automatic methods were developed for the pre-processing of the geographical data. Furthermore, a method for the delineation of suburban catchments including the separation into dry and wet weather contributing areas was developed. The model was then applied to the Chaudanne catchment, a sub-basin of the Yzeron, located in the peri-urban area of Lyon, France. The model was run continuously for two contrasting years (dry and humid) using parameters values taken from observations and the literature. Although summer peak discharge is often overestimated, the results show that, the model is able to simulate realistically the observed discharges and in particular different responses under dry and wet conditions, controlled by the soil saturation. Sensitivity tests to various processes/parameters showed the importance of the urban influenced processes on the hydrological response, in particular surface runoff generation on impervious and natural urban surfaces, infiltration into the sewer system and the connexion of urban areas to the natural hydrographic network. Soil depth and lateral saturated hydraulic conductivity were also found influential on the base flow dynamics. We finally showed the model potential for the evaluation of various rain water management scenarios.